Bubble Watch - Selection Sunday (Sit and Wait)

[obliterata]

We are in people the ACC isn't getting just 8 teans.

10 we're in, 8 we're out, 9 it's either SU or WF

 

[Alsacs]

My fear is the acc gets 9, and wake steals our bid.

Wake won games on the road against cherry teams we beat better teams.
Syracuse> Wake

 

[suorange08]

Wake won games on the road against cherry teams we beat better teams.
Syracuse> Wake

We also won head to head

 

[Briancuse]

Wake won games on the road against cherry teams we beat better teams.
Syracuse> Wake

I know, like I said before, it would be a joke if they got a bid over us, but I am a Syracuse fan, its my fear.

 

[obliterata]

Wake won games on the road against cherry teams we beat better teams.
Syracuse> Wake

Absolutely, on page 8 I mention why I think SU should get in over WF.

 

[Alsacs]

6 seed Michigan vs. 11 seed Syracuse is my prediction.

 

[bpo57]

I'm calling BS on 99%. If you figure there are 36 at large teams if you miss one you are at 97%. How many years did Palm get 100% right to offset that.

I think his denominator is 68 (or 65 back then etc.). I don't believe the 99% either way.

 

[bpo57]

6 seed Michigan vs. 11 seed Syracuse is my prediction.

No game in Dayton?

 

[MSOrange]

6 seed Michigan vs. 11 seed Syracuse is my prediction.

Wow not even a play in game?

 

[bpo57]

Wow not even a play in game?

He'll have us as a protected seed by 5:15.

 

[jdubs30]

6 seed Michigan vs. 11 seed Syracuse is my prediction.

I wanna get in bad - but man Michigan would boatrace us

 

[Alsacs]

If we are making it we are making it on the strength of the ACC.
Thus I don't see us in Dayton if we make it.

 

[obliterata]

if we don't get in it is because we do not deserve to be in

If any of USC, WF, and VCU get in, we deserved to get in. We have better wins than all 3 combined.

 

[jncuse]

Exactly. So point being, if it's us and USC I like our chances because of who we've beaten. If they get in over us, then the committee is not consistent with their criteria. Last year we got in because of good wins, SC has 2.

How do you know it was not quality wins INCLUDING road/neutral wins that put us over the top?

 

[jncuse]

I have a problem with WF and VCU too.

Unfortunately they can find many problems with us too and they are all primary factors.

 

[jdubs30]

How do you know it was not quality wins INCLUDING road/neutral wins that put us over the top?

Our top 3 wins last year were away from the Dome. I wouldn't say that hurt

 

[Ish88888]

17 days ago John Gillon hit the spectacular buzzer beater to beat Duke. At that time there was a lot of optomism on the board. We felt great about our tourney chances. Many thought we were in if we just win one game against Georgia Tech or had very good chances. I was a little more reserved at 50/50. Just being cautious but I thought it could be up to 80% in 10 days time if things went right by the time we played Tech.

4 days later we played at Louisville. We predictably lost. This was not a problem. We would have to wait another 6 days to play Georgia Tech.

But in those 10 days between Duke and Georgia Tech the bubble seemed to take their head out of their collective asses. Vanderbilt made a sudden move up. Wake Forest made a big move with 2 top wins in the last week(Louisville and at Virginia Tech). Providence, Seton Hall and Marquette all seemed to benefit from some weakness from Creighton, Xavier and Butler, which made the Big East a 7 team league instead of a 5 ir 6 team league . Illinois started to make a serious move.

By the time we played at 4:00 on Saturday afternoon things had changed for the worse. A week earlier I had hoped to say this win would likely do it. But too much had happened. Either way it was a must win game. And we did what we needed to do in convincing fashion.

We had some good news on the last Sunday of the season when Illinois St lost to Wichita St. So we entered the tournament as the 2nd last team in on the bubble matrix. Very uncertain, but we could really use that game against Miami.

And we lost that game to Miami. Things are going to have to go good this week. And on Wednesday and Thursday things did not go well. We could have use some teams having a bad loss. But none did. Instead Xavier got a big win. And teams like TCU, Georgia, Cal, and Indiana all moved forward. And then to finish the day on Thursday Kansas St beat Baylor. We were now the last team in. And there was a number of new potential chasers. Some posters wanted to call things over on Thursday.

But it was not over. We were just hanging by a string. And then everything went very good on Friday. All the challengers behind us faded. Kansas St could not follow up the Baylor win. USC could not get a big win. The bubble busters stayed intact. Things were looking up as we entered today.

Today was all about avoiding bubble busters. And we got all we needed - Nevada won, Middle Tenn St won, the AAC went as planned. We may have avoided the entire tournament season without one bubble buster. And that is exactly what we needed after Thursday.

So 17 days later after that John Gillon shot, we are still in the same position in my view. I would say still at around 50/50.

Not much of a schedule for tomorrow. There is one game - Rhode Island vs VCU and as was debated today it's not clear who is the better team to lose.

It's now pretty simple. The bubble is pretty much done.

7 teams. 5 spots

VCU/Rhode Island loser
Wake Forest
Syracuse
USC
Kansas St
Illinois St
Providence (or other BET team)

I don't view Illinois St as a serious contender but as they still have about 25% on the matrix I think they should be included.

So Sunday is not a day for much watching. Just waiting.

Go Orange.

Dont think the vcu/Rhoady loser was ever on the bubble. With URI winning we took a hit. VCU is definitely in.

 

[Cuse House]

How do you know it was not quality wins INCLUDING road/neutral wins that put us over the top?

I'm sure it was, but I would argue we have more and better quality wins this year regardless of venue. Duke last year is not Duke this year.

 

[gilardino]

6 teams: cuse, wake, k state, usc, Illinois state, providence

4 of them will be in the paly in game, 2 will be left out

 

[jncuse]

Dont think the vcu/Rhoady loser was ever on the bubble. With URI winning we took a hit. VCU is definitely in.

If Rhode Island was never on the bubble if they lost , then how did we take a hit with Rhode Island winning today.

 

[obliterata]

Unfortunately they can find many problems with us too and they are all primary factors.

Yes they can. With SU it's all about better wins and worse losses than the other bubble teams. I hope the committee focuses on the positives and not the negatives.

 

[Briancuse]

Dont think the vcu/Rhoady loser was ever on the bubble. With URI winning we took a hit. VCU is definitely in.

They should be, both had questionable resumes.

 

[jncuse]

Our top 3 wins last year were away from the Dome. I wouldn't say that hurt

Agreed. I think you misunderstood my point.

My counter to his post was that it could have been good wins combined with quality wins away from home that put us over the top. It's not fair to say it was only good wins that got us in last year. It could have been good wins + location of such wins.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Still dancing.

Providence in the PIG, winner gets SMU

Loser keeps Chukwu.

 

[jncuse]

I'm sure it was, but I would argue we have more and better quality wins this year regardless of venue. Duke last year is not Duke this year.

Yes but not by much,

Our top 3 wins are probbably against a 2 seed, 3 seed and a 5 seed.
Last year it was a 3,4 and a 6.

So yes they are better this year, but it's not significantly more.