Bubble Watch - Selection Sunday (Sit and Wait)

[Chris02M]

All of Iowa metrics are too high.our rpi is high but kenpom blind and sugaring are in the at large range for p5

 

[suorange08]

Palm was asked if he would bet a large sum on us not being in. He deflected and said it would be the worst selection ever. He doubled down on his no evidence statement that 6 top 50 win teams are left out every year. Wally Sczcerbiak called him out on it and he had no response then to shrug his arms. I want a job where I can spout anything I want and call it a fact without having to prove it.

 

[CorduroyG]

A @ESPNLunardi update after URI's win:

LAST 4 BYES: Mich St, SHU, Marquette, XU
LAST 4 IN: PC, Cuse, Wake, K-St
FIRST OUT: USC, Illinois St

 

[CorduroyG]

I think it's between cuse and USC for last spot. If we see USC on the board before us we're messed.

 

[721Comstock]

I actually agree with lunardi, I think it's between cuse and USC for last spot. If we see USC on the board before us we're messed.

Agreed. They got their fat win record on cupcakes and soupcans.
Their schedule has so many empty calories it'll give you the diabeetus just looking at it.

 

[suorange08]

I think it's between cuse and USC for last spot. If we see USC on the board before us we're messed.

I thought Lunardi puts his teams in order? Wouldn't it be Kansas State vs USC for the last spot?

 

[Chris02M]

I think it's between cuse and USC for last spot. If we see USC on the board before us we're messed.

I think us kansas state and USC are for 2 spots

 

[Cuse House]

If it's down to us and USC, I would think we'd get the nudge. They have one good win in my opinion against UCLA. They also were a combined 1-7 against UCLA, Zona, and Oregon. The majority of those losses were double digits and a few were 20+ point losses.

If there is one team I'd have an issue getting in above us it would be USC.

They also lost to Cal.

 

[Chris02M]

I thought Lunardi puts his teams in order? Wouldn't it be Kansas State vs USC for the last spot?

Yes

 

[CorduroyG]

I think us kansas state and USC are for 2 spots

I think the Baylor win got kstate in.

 

[Col. Bleep]

I want a job where I can spout anything I want and call it a fact without having to prove it.

Run for president.

 

[jdubs30]

Palm was asked if he would bet a large sum on us not being in. He deflected and said it would be the worst selection ever. He doubled down on his no evidence statement that 6 top 50 win teams are left out every year. Wally Sczcerbiak called him out on it and he had no response then to shrug his arms. I want a job where I can spout anything I want and call it a fact without having to prove it.

Seth Davis said it's happened 18 times. Palm just goes off of the history but seems to be forgetting there are 4 extra spots now...

If it's down to us and USC, I would think we'd get the nudge. They have one good win in my opinion against UCLA. They also were a combined 1-7 against UCLA, Zona, and Oregon. The majority of those losses were double digits and a few were 20+ point losses.

If there is one team I'd have an issue getting in above us it would be USC.

They also lost to Cal.

They beat SMU too. But I agree - I'm OK with Wake, KState, PC over us. But USC would be a question mark.

 

[Chris02M]

I think the Baylor win got kstate in.

We will see there numbers are blah

 

[jdubs30]

We will see there numbers are blah

They're better than ours.

 

[djorange1989]

Agreed. They got their fat win record on cupcakes and soupcans.
Their schedule has so many empty calories it'll give you the diabeetus just looking at it.

Yep their road record and overall record are both bogus. 10-8 in a conference with 3 very good teams(1-7 against those three) and little else vs our 10-8, and our 6 top 50 wins? Please.

 

[Cuse House]

Seth Davis said it's happened 18 times. Palm just goes off of the history but seems to be forgetting there are 4 extra spots now...



They beat SMU too. But I agree - I'm OK with Wake, KState, PC over us. But USC would be a question mark.

Exactly. So point being, if it's us and USC I like our chances because of who we've beaten. If they get in over us, then the committee is not consistent with their criteria. Last year we got in because of good wins, SC has 2.

 

[raf4488]

Palm's argument is committee precedent even though there are 4 more spots and selection criteria has changed pretty dramatically in recent years. As Lunardi seems to understand, what the committee did last year has a lot more predictive value than what the committee has done the last 20 or 30 years.

 

[Cuse House]

Palm's argument is committee precedent even though there are 4 more spots and selection criteria has changed pretty dramatically in recent years. As Lunardi seems to understand, what the committee did last year has a lot more predictive value than what the committee has done the last 20 or 30 years.

Yes, but he fails to mention that Vandy would be first 15 loss team. He is being selective in what he wants to emphasize.

 

[Chris02M]

They're better than ours.

Debatable

 

[jdubs30]

Palm's argument is committee precedent even though there are 4 more spots and selection criteria has changed pretty dramatically in recent years. As Lunardi seems to understand, what the committee did last year has a lot more predictive value than what the committee has done the last 20 or 30 years.

Yep. Everyone has an opinon on who should be in - but Palm consistently is saying "no team ever has gotten in with ____" . He's 100% going on what has been done in the past.

 

[Col. Bleep]

A @ESPNLunardi update after URI's win:

LAST 4 BYES: Mich St, SHU, Marquette, XU
LAST 4 IN: PC, Cuse, Wake, K-St
FIRST OUT: USC, Illinois St

We got lucky with the way the conference tourneys went.
Despite FIVE losses to sub .500 teams (all former BE foes) and the atrocious road record the Orange still have a shot.
SU & Wake may be the last two teams in.

But if we don't make it...it's hard to argue we were robbed.

Phil Mushnick makes a good point using Marquette as an example in today's NY Post:

http://nypost.com/2017/03/11/march-madness-coverage-wont-divulge-ncaas-dirty-little-secret/

 

[CorduroyG]

does lunardi usually get all the teams right? I know last year he was off but I know I've seen in the past that he got all 68 teams.

I know we make fun of him a lot but man I hope he nails it this year.

 

[obliterata]

Here's a pro-SU stat that I'm sure the committee wouldn't take into consideration (it's not computer numberish). It's the record of all the ACC schools versus the top 6 in the conference. The top 6 were all locks over a month ago and separated themselves from the rest of the ACC:

Duke 6-3 (.667)
UNC 5-3 (.625)
FSU 4-4 (.500)
UVA 4-4 (.500)
SU 3-4 (.429)
GTech 3-4 (.429)
ND 4-6 (.400)
Miami 3-6 (.333)
Lou 2-6 (.250)
VT 2-6 (.250)
Pitt 2-8 (.200)
NCSt 1-6 (.167)
WF 1-6 (.167)
BC 0-7 (.000)
Clem 0-8 (.000)

SU is tied for 5th ahead of 2 of the top 6 while Wake Forest is tied for 12th. This is just one of the reasons why I'll be disappointed if WF gets a bid and SU doesn't. Here's some others:

In the ACC SU finished tied for 7th, WF finished 10th.
SU beat WF.
SU beat the ACC Champions, WF didn't.
SU may have beaten a one seed, that's to be determined after 5:30PM.

I know Wake Forest has advantages over SU but they mostly involve losses and not wins.

 

[CorduroyG]

I'm ok with whatever happens as long as USC doesn't get in over us. We've done more than them. Wake, kstate, providence I can understand then being ahead of us. But not USC.

 

[jdubs30]

does lunardi usually get all the teams right? I know last year he was off but I know I've seen in the past that he got all 68 teams.

I know we make fun of him a lot but man I hope he nails it this year.

According to CBS, Palm is 99% for his career (which isn't that hard since 90% of the field is a lock).

However, the BracketMatrix has only missed 11 teams over the past 7 years - so a little more than 1 per year. As of now, we are the first team out in the Matrix