Bubble Watch - Thursday Tourney Week

[jncuse]

Note - this main post will be updated a bit before noon tomrrow

This is when things start to get going. More of the bubble teams have tougher games or decisive games Thursday and Friday.

Absolutely Crucial Games Tomorrow - Team Would Jump us with Win
Kansas St vs Baylor

The following is the matrix before today's games (to be updated around noon tomorrow when new brackets get posted on the matrix)





Viewing Schedule - Known Games (to be updated as games become known)


bold to lose
12:00 Illinois at Michigan (BTN)
1:00 Tennessee vc Georgia
2:30 TCU vs Kansas
5:30 Cal vs Utah
6:30 Indiana vs Iowa
7:00 Texas A&M at Vanderbilt
9:00 Kansas St vs Baylor

Bubble Buster Games (bold to win)
12:30 UTSA vs Middle Tennessee St
3:00 Utah St vs Nevada



Note - I don't think Michigan St, Providence, Seton Hall or Marquette can come back to us so there games are not included. Other than Michigan St they can't do anything bad at this point.

 

[jdubs30]

Of the 2, I think we should root for Indiana over Iowa.

 

[jdubs30]

So I know some people are convinced Wake is in - but this result tonight certainly doesn't hurt us.

 

[pearl31]

gonna be a real interesting convo in that committee room regarding SU and Wake

 

[jdubs30]

gonna be a real interesting convo in that committee room regarding SU and Wake

Could be room for both if other results shake our way.

But yeah - if they end up taking just 1 - I don't think anyone can predict which one they will favor. We each have clear advantages over each other. Our resume strengths are their weaknesses and vice-versa. It will show what the committee values

 

[pearl31]

Could be room for both if other results shake our way.

But yeah - if they end up taking just 1 - I don't think anyone can predict which one they will favor. We each have clear advantages over each other. Our resume strengths are their weaknesses and vice-versa. It will show what the committee values

I almost feel, not in a rational sort of way, it's gotta be both or neither... but geez this game just got interesting again

 

[jdubs30]

I almost feel, not in a rational sort of way, it's gotta be both or neither... but geez this game just got interesting again

Funny I was thinking the same - might be a package deal. Either 8 ACC teams or 10

 

[pearl31]

hey looks like Buttgers gonna help us out too!

 

[jdubs30]

hey looks like Buttgers gonna help us out too!

They have more B10 Tournament wins than we have ACC Tournament wins - yikes

 

[orangenirvana]

With this win, Jerry Palm has moved Rutgers ahead of Syracuse in his "In the Hunt" list.

 

[orangenirvana]

gonna be a real interesting convo in that committee room regarding SU and Wake

Wake is a lock.

 

[jdubs30]

GTown loses - another sub 100 RPI loss for us

 

[jdubs30]

Wake is a lock.

I like Wake too - but they aren't so far ahead of us that it's a sure thing.

If the committee values big wins - we have the edge. If they value no bad losses/more than 2 neutral floor wins (lol) - Wake has the edge.

Again - no reason it can't be both of us

 

[pearl31]

Wake is a lock.

nah

 

[pearl31]

Do we know if there's any precedent of committee assessing two teams that are very close and using head-to-head result as a factor?

 

[Briancuse]

Wake is a lock.

No they aren't, in good shape, not a lock.

 

[jdubs30]

Do we know if there's any precedent of committee assessing two teams that are very close and using head-to-head result as a factor?

It'd be interesting, but IMO it shouldn't be much of a factor. If we beat them 3 times I think it would be a tiebreaker. But 1 game on our home floor shouldn't completely exclude Wake from getting in. If they like us both enough that they'd consider a H2H tiebreaker, I feel like we'd both get in.

 

[orangenirvana]

nah

Oopsy daisy. When I posted that I had thought Wake had won. I still think they'll end up dancing but I agree they're not quite a lock.

 

[pearl31]

Oopsy daisy. When I posted that I had thought Wake had won. I still think they'll end up dancing but I agree they're not quite a lock.

agreed - more likely than not they're in but I could see them being left out

 

[jncuse]

Illinois' Path - Beat Michigan (possibly in, but well below 50%), Beat Purdue (Probably in, but not 90%)
Michigan is secure -- this is not a bad loss if it loses

Middle Tenn is a 16 point favouite here. Should be no worries. They need to win the CUSA, as they are the best "bubble buster"

The road for Georgia to an at-large is not short.
Beat Tennessee (still out)
Beat Kentucky (big win may cause a surprise committee decision, but still likely out)
Beat South Carolina (I think this puts them over the top)

 

[jncuse]

Created to big a hole to end the season
Beat Kansas (Likely Out, less than 25% chance)
Beat Iowa St (In Conversation)

Entering last weekend I had three small conference potential bubble buster. Middle Tennesse St as the big concern. and UNC Wilmington and Nevada as the longshot. UNC Wilnington is in. For Nevada, they still have a 7-4 recod vs the 100, even they are 0-1 vs top 50. KP is getting close to 50, which is the line I think may gain notice by the committee (pure speculation).

Their resume is arguably as good as illinois St, in that at least they are getting top 100 victories. Don't think they will be a bubble buster, but to sage cheer for them.

I don't think this is enough for Cal. Only Palm does.
I think they still need to beat Oregon after this.

 

[FrancoPizza]

GTown loses - another sub 100 RPI loss for us

But that improves our top 100 W-L.

 

[jncuse]

GAME OF THE DAY -- Right now they are in a group with Rhode Island, Illinois St for the final spot in the matrix,

If there is a win and your in game tomorrow this one is it.

 

[orangenirvana]

Going to bed but fingers crossed!

 

[jdubs30]

By end the today, I think we will have a really good idea if where we stand within the bubble.

Obviously no bid steals can happen today. But we have several teams that would be done with a loss: Illinois, Iowa, Kansas State, Georiga, TCU, Cal. Also losses by USC and Xavier would be massive.

We won't get all of them, but if I had to choose: X, KState, Cal, Illinois, Iowa, then USC - in that order.

I believe KState, USC and Xavier can lock-up a bid today. Despite what Palm thinks, I don't believe Cal can.