Bubble Watch - Thursday Tourney Week

[Consigliere]

Harvard (2x), SF Austin (2x), Yale, Hawaii, LaSalle, Florida Gulf Coast, N Dakota State, Mercer, Georgia State, Northern Iowa (2x), Dayton (2x), UAB, Little Rock and Middle Tennessee State all send their regards (all won first round games in the last four years).

Yes, but how many of them stole a bid by winning their tournament over the regular season champions?

 

[Ryand877]

Michigan up 56-41, under 10:00 left

 

[skurey]

Feel free to prove me wrong but it seems like when a mid major wins a first round game they are much more likely to get blown out in the next round. It makes for an exciting first round but blah for the rest.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Final Michigan 75-55.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Illinois and OK State about to go down.

 

[pearl31]

Palm just moved Ill up to last 4 in

 

[pearl31]

Georgia leading scorer Yante Maten is back playing his first game after missing 4 due to a sprained knee.

ugh

 

[CorduroyG]

getting very good results so far

 

[MSOrange]

Illinois and OK State about to go down.

Illinois definitely on the bubble but I don't think OK State is. Seems like most have them pretty solidly in.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Illinois definitely on the bubble but I don't think OK State is. Seems like most have them pretty solidly in.

Agreed but any losses that muck things up are better for us. Like you said they are probably in and in better position then us but ya never know.

 

[bpo57]

Yes, but how many of them stole a bid by winning their tournament over the regular season champions?

I'm sure several of them did. I will check it out and get back to you. Point is though that most of the wins I mentioned came against P5+1 teams.

 

[MSOrange]

I wish I had more confidence in Tennessee overcoming the Rick Barnes effect.

 

[djorange1989]

Illinois definitely on the bubble but I don't think OK State is. Seems like most have them pretty solidly in.

yeah, Illinois is done, as they should be, but Ok State is in. can't hurt having them lose to an even more in already Iowa State, but they are safe.

 

[Consigliere]

I'm sure several of them did. I will check it out and get back to you. Point is though that most of the wins I mentioned came against P5+1 teams.

Don't get me wrong. I enjoy watching the small conference teams play giant killer (well except Vermont and Richmond!) What I disagree with are situations like Monmouth last year being mourned as a victim of P5 dominating at large selections when it is their conference (and all small conferences now) that award their bid to the Big Dance to the conference tourney champ. Regular season is 100% irrelevant for these one bid leagues.

 

[jncuse]

Oklahoma St is a 150% lock.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Oklahoma St is a 150% lock.

Hall or Marquette, who should we root for?

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

Hall or Marquette, who should we root for?

Hall, but Marquette is likely securely above Cuse.

 

[Consigliere]

I'm sure several of them did. I will check it out and get back to you. Point is though that most of the wins I mentioned came against P5+1 teams.

Looks like Florida Gulf Coast and UA-B are the only two in your list where they lost the regular season title, won the conference tournament and the regular season champ was left out of the NCAA Tournament. Easier to investigate than I thought. Thanks, Wikipedia!

 

[jncuse]

Hall or Marquette, who should we root for?

Toss up. They are probably both ahead of us regardless what happens today. Probably does not matter, but who knows what the committee is thinking.

The main point of focus today IMO should be (in terms of losing):
Vanderbilt
Illinois
Iowa
TCU
Kansas St
Georgia
Cal
USC
Xavier

Some of those teams like USC/Xavier may already be ahead of us. The others are those who need to win to catch us. Other than Vandy, not sure who else we catch with a loss.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Toss up. They are probably both ahead of us regardless what happens today. Probably does not matter, but who knows what the committee is thinking.

The main point of focus today IMO should be (in terms of losing):
Vanderbilt
Illinois
Iowa
TCU
Kansas St
Georgia
Cal
USC
Xavier

Some of those teams like USC/Xavier may already be ahead of us. The others are those who need to win to catch us. Other than Vandy, not sure who else we catch with a loss.

Thanks. Seems were off to a decent start with the Illini losing and TCU already down double digits to Kansas. Was hoping Georgia would fold late but they were able to hang on. Would be phenomenal if we got Vandy and Iowa to go down or even 1 of the 2. Ditto for Xavier and Cal.

 

[bpo57]

Don't get me wrong. I enjoy watching the small conference teams play giant killer (well except Vermont and Richmond!) What I disagree with are situations like Monmouth last year being mourned as a victim of P5 dominating at large selections when it is their conference (and all small conferences now) that award their bid to the Big Dance to the conference tourney champ. Regular season is 100% irrelevant for these one bid leagues.

I hear ya but when a P5+1 team gets in with a conference record below .500 then it seems like their regular season is irrelevant too.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[bpo57]

Looks like Florida Gulf Coast and UA-B are the only two in your list where they lost the regular season title, won the conference tournament and the regular season champ was left out of the NCAA Tournament. Easier to investigate than I thought. Thanks, Wikipedia!

My point is that when these smaller schools get in they do some damage by beating more highly regarded power conference teams. I'd be in favor of being a little more lenient in their direction but that's just a philosophical thing for me- there's no right or wrong way.

 

[MSOrange]

And our old pal Jamie D gets teed up.

 

[jncuse]

TCU hanging around - put them away Jayhawks.