Bubble Watch - Week from Feb 20th to Feb 26th

[jncuse]

I was hoping to not rekindle this thread, but after today's loss it becomes relevant to watch closely again.

As usual seedings are from the bracket matrix. Many games from today were final once posted. While I often have no life, the odd few days I get away!!

LSU enteres today as the 3rd last team out. Tough loss against a sub .500 team. Good for us.

UConn 9 seed playing at 2nd last team in. It probably would have been better for UConn to win, but them losing while they are bubbling is a nice consolation prize.

Clemson 7th last team out. (in on 8% of brackets) They could afford this one -- dug quite a hole and will need to win out and beat Virginia.

Florida St was the first team out. This was a game they needed. (I have yet to look at all the scores today, as I am scrolling from the bottom of the CBS scoreboard)... but so far I noted the 1st, 3rd, and 7th last team out have lost... which is very good for us. The teams out are not strong.

 

[jncuse]

Before going any further, I should put the bubble line per the matrix:

LAST IN (Bolds are projected auto bids)

LAST OUT

 

[jncuse]

Butler came in is as the 2nd last team in. It's not going hurt losing a game like this on the road, but of course its still a lost opportunity to get off the bubble quickly.

Alabama 10 seed, 6th last team in. A bad loss at home. Terrible at this time of year.

Quality win for a 9 seed, Still a not so quality program.

 

[jncuse]

St. Joe's was an 8 seed (so not on the bubble line I generally use for this thread -- 9 seed). And it is not that bad a loss given that it was on the road... but they may fall back to a 9 seed after this.

Vanderbilt is the 9th team out -- not even that great a win, but they will slide up some spots after today.

St. Bonaventure was the 8th team out before this game. Very nice road win, and with many of the first 7 out losing, this will move them a number of spots on the outside rankimg. Good for us as well, as this stays a "top 50".

 

[jncuse]

Games going on

EDIT - Washington Wins by 11
Washington is the 6th last team out. Can't absorb a home loss to a non tourney team.

Texas Tech is up to 9 seed -- from a team that was well on the outside a weeks back They have been able to rapidly climb from after a 3 game win streak over Iowa St, Baylor, Oklahoma (doesn't get much better then that for a bubble team)

But this is a dangerous road game, against a non tourney team.

The fact that Oregon St is the 5th last team in shows how iffy the bubble is right now.

Oregon has been a little shaky lately -- 12 point dog in a rivalry game for a desperate team. I like the Beavers tonight.

Gonzaga is the 11th seed Auto. St. Mary;s is the 5th last team out. Needless to say this is a huge game for both, because they get few games to really impress. This is a very nice rivalry as well, and most times I have watched these two play it has always been qaulity basketball.

Who should you cheer for? I'll go with Gonzaga, so that St Mary's does not get a quality road win. The most important thing though, is that whomever wins tonight follows it up with a win at the WCC tournament,

 

[skurey]

How has Stanford only played 24 games?

 

[jncuse]

As a team on the bubble the results have been very good today. There was no upwards pressure from teams below the bubble line.bbbThey are currently 1-3, with 3 losses being against teams that are the near 100 RPI mark. (so games they needed to win). Only St. Bonaventure won, and they still have work to do, and when they win, we win.

Above the in line, 2 teams had top 50 victories -- Cincy and Pitt. Alabama suffered a bad loss to counter this.

But the last 4 out (adjusting for games played today) could be something like this:
Tulsa
George Washington
St. Mary's
St. Bonaventure

I still like our chances (above 50%) if we simply beat NC St. and avoid a bad loss in the ACC tourney. Bubble busters are always a potential pass in the ass as well.

 

[jncuse]

Not a football game between an FCS and FBC team

BYU 56, San Diego 14 (14 minutes left)

BYU is definetely a team that could steal a bid . They will not get an at large but they have a decent shot at the WCC tourney title.

 

[jncuse]

How has Stanford only played 24 games?

Maybe some Non Division 1 games? Not sure.

 

[pearl31]

Who should you cheer for? I'll go with Gonzaga, so that St Mary's does not get a quality road win. The most important thing though, is that whomever wins tonight follows it up with a win at the WCC tournament,

The bolded is key with Zags/St.Marys

 

[nycfan]

As a team on the bubble the results have been very good today. There was no upwards pressure from teams below the bubble line. They are currently 1-3, with 3 losses being against teams that are the near 100 RPI mark. (so games they needed to win). Only St. Bonaventure won, and they still have work to do, and when they win, we win.

But the last 4 out (adjusting for games played today) could be something like this:
Tulsa
George Washington
St. Mary's
St. Bonaventure

I still like our chances (above 50%) if we simply beat NC St. and avoid a bad loss in the ACC tourney. Bubble busters are always a potential pass in the ass as well.

Joeybrackets actually put the Bonnies in today after their big win. Although I often disagree with a lot of his seedings, I can understand this big jump. Dayton had a top-10 rpi at the start of the day and were playing at home. So the Bonnies winning as 10 point underdogs on the road was most likely the biggest win of the day by a bubble team. By the way, love that he was swung big time the other way on LSU---remember just last weekend he had LSU a ridiculous 7-seed (now 5th team out).

Joe Lunardi ‏@ESPNLunardi 3h3 hours ago

Bubble update: IN: Texas Tech, Alabama, Butler, Bonaventure; OUT: Vandy, Tulsa, St. Mary's, Oregon St; NEXT: LSU, Clemson, GW, Washington.

 

[pearl31]

Another potentially good result for us from today: Chattanooga losing at home to lowly UNC Greensborough.
Chat will probably get an auto bid anyway by winning their conf tourney, but they do have a compelling resume for an at-large - only 5 losses total with wins at Georgia, Illinois and Dayton. But today really hurt their at large chances

 

[UnderHisOwnPower]

As a team on the bubble the results have been very good today. There was no upwards pressure from teams below the bubble line.bbbThey are currently 1-3, with 3 losses being against teams that are the near 100 RPI mark. (so games they needed to win). Only St. Bonaventure won, and they still have work to do, and when they win, we win.

Above the in line, 2 teams had top 50 victories -- Cincy and Pitt. Alabama suffered a bad loss to counter this.

But the last 4 out (adjusting for games played today) could be something like this:
Tulsa
George Washington
St. Mary's
St. Bonaventure

I still like our chances (above 50%) if we simply beat NC St. and avoid a bad loss in the ACC tourney. Bubble busters are always a potential pass in the ass as well.

Coach was quoted in the Seth Davis interview, "This year, there will be 10 or so teams with 10 or 11 losses on selection Sunday, and only 4 of the 10 will get in." We are headed for at least 12 before then, with losses at UNC and 1 in the ACCT. So if he is expecting 11 losses to be bubble territory, what does that say about perhaps 13? When was the last time a 13 loss team received an at large bid? Shaky potatoes...

 

[SoBeCuse]

Another potentially good result for us from today: Chattanooga losing at home to lowly UNC Greensborough.
Chat will probably get an auto bid anyway by winning their conf tourney, but they do have a compelling resume for an at-large - only 5 losses total with wins at Georgia, Illinois and Dayton. But today really hurt their at large chances

We don't want Ohio State to keep winning also.

 

[pearl31]

We don't want Ohio State to keep winning also.

yeah they're another one to keep an eye on - kind of odd they're not on a single bracket on Bracket Matrix - that'll possibly change this week

 

[jdubs30]

Bubble below us is shaky.

We had 2 losses this week, but neither were bad losses by resume standards.

NC State is a must win. Win that one and take care of business @FSU (obviously beating UNC would help more) and we'll be fine.

 

[orangenirvana]

Bubble below us is shaky.

We had 2 losses this week, but neither were bad losses by resume standards.

NC State is a must win. Win that one and take care of business @FSU (obviously beating UNC would help more) and we'll be fine.

Our RPI just plummeted to #55.

Barring a win over UNC or an ACC Tourney run, I don't see it improving much even with wins over NC State (RPI 99) and FSU (RPI 74).

We were #50 when the 2006-07 season ended, fwiw.

Yesterday's outcome was potentially devastating.

 

[jncuse]

Joeybrackets actually but the Bonnies in today after their big win. Although I often disagree with a lot of his seedings, I can understand this big jump. Dayton had a top-10 rpi at the start of the day and were playing at home. So the Bonnies winning as 10 point underdogs on the road was most likely the biggest win of the day by a bubble team. By the way, love that he was swung big time the other way on LSU---remember just last weekend he had LSU a ridiculous 7-seed (now 5th team out).

Joe Lunardi ‏@ESPNLunardi 3h3 hours ago

Bubble update: IN: Texas Tech, Alabama, Butler, Bonaventure; OUT: Vandy, Tulsa, St. Mary's, Oregon St; NEXT: LSU, Clemson, GW, Washington.

I can certainly see St Binaventure right in line with those teams, and you have to pick one. Not too big on Vandy or Oregon St resume.

 

[jncuse]

Coach was quoted in the Seth Davis interview, "This year, there will be 10 or so teams with 10 or 11 losses on selection Sunday, and only 4 of the 10 will get in." We are headed for at least 12 before then, with losses at UNC and 1 in the ACCT. So if he is expecting 11 losses to be bubble territory, what does that say about perhaps 13? When was the last time a 13 loss team received an at large bid? Shaky potatoes...

That comment is just wrong this year.

JB probably does not spend much time on bracketology. And I am perfectly fine with that -- a coach should spend as much time as possible on getting his team to win as many games as possilbe.

 

[jncuse]

We don't want Ohio State to keep winning also.

Yep, I looked over the Matrix twice when I saw there score yesterday to see if they had more mentions. They can move up quickly with a big win. The RPI is still high 70's with a bad OOC of 8-5 (Kentucky but bad losses)

2 of those top 25 games to close the season are at home., so they have a great chance if they take care of business at home.

 

[jncuse]

Our RPI just plummeted to #55.

Barring a win over UNC or an ACC Tourney run, I don't see it improving much even with wins over NC State (RPI 99) and FSU (RPI 74).

We were #50 when the 2006-07 season ended, fwiw.

Yesterday's outcome was potentially devastating.

- Yesterday's loss did indeed hurt quite a bit. But you are overrating what we need to do to get in the tourney. A win yesterday would have made us near lock, needing only to beat NC St.

- 2007 had 65 teams. This year we effectively have 70 teams making the tourney since Louisville and SMU are out. It makes it a lot easier

- You are focusing way too much on the individual RPI as the determining factor of who gets in. The individual RPI is important in that it is a "Take a look at my resume" number. If you are in the 60's (or maybe above 65 this year as they need to get 70 teams essentially) it may stop the committee from taking a full look at you. But our RPI will be good enough for them to look at our entire resume. And we do well in that because we have a number of top 50 (or tourney/bubble teams) and only one bad loss.

-. Here is our projected RPI with (using the RPI wizard on rpiforecast)
Win over NC St only -- 62
Win over NC st and Florida St - 46

That is the impact of a road win on RPI when so many teams are bunched in the middle.

- 10-8 is a lock in this for this tourney. That RPI, with top 50 wins, and only one bad loss, would be more than fine.

9-9 (without a bad loss in the ACC) is the sweat number, and I still think we have decent chances in that scenario.

 

[jncuse]

Coach was quoted in the Seth Davis interview, "This year, there will be 10 or so teams with 10 or 11 losses on selection Sunday, and only 4 of the 10 will get in." We are headed for at least 12 before then, with losses at UNC and 1 in the ACCT. So if he is expecting 11 losses to be bubble territory, what does that say about perhaps 13? When was the last time a 13 loss team received an at large bid? Shaky potatoes...

Just to get further on this point.

There are 5 teams with 10 losses already that are considered in the field as of now on the bracket matrix.

Texas
Florida
Wisconsin
Alabama
Syracuse

In terms of the last 10 teams out on the bracket matrix, these teams already have 10 losses.
Vanderbilt
Washington
Florida St
LSU
Clemson
Creighton

Given that most teams have at least 3-5 games left, this number will just get higher and higher.

 

[jncuse]

SUNDAY GAMES

GW (Last 4 Out)
Tulsa (Last 4 out)
Seton Hall (10 seed)

I assume this is easy victories for all. If not it will crush any one of them.

 

[jncuse]

Michigan is a 10 seed. Would be massive if they win, but not likely.

Monmouth is a 12 -- the more losses they have the less likely they can steal a seed as a bubble buster

A 12 seed - same as Monmouth, but lower threat as bubble buster. Lack of key wins.

A 12 seed -- see Monmouth and Vampo.

 

[jncuse]

10 seed, but an empty 10 seed. A bad loss would put them in the same class as Monmouth, San Diego St, Valpo above.

Temple is last team in oer matrix (but it is due to a flaw that only occurs once on the matrix). Most people have UConn as an at large, and many people put the league leader (Temple) as the auto, but not as an at large. But since UConn has more mentions in brackets. they get the Auto and Temple has enough mentions to get in as an at- large.

The biggest worry in the AAC is a team like this or Houston winning the AAC tourney, turning this into a 3 bid league.

Wisconsin is up to a 9 seed now.