Bubble Watch - Week of Feb 27 to Mar 4

[jncuse]

TUESDAY GAMES - - A Little Late (Busy Day)

Clemson is quite a ways out, but i would think win they still have a chance as an at large if they win out and lose in the ACC Final.

Florida is one of the last 4 in -- great chance at a top 25 win at home... and good for us they are blowing it so far.

Vanderbilt is still in the last 5- last 8 in group. No real expectations for them to lose this game.

This is a big one. If Georgia Tech pulls off the road game stunner, they are not too far off the bubble line.

 

[jncuse]

GW is now pretty much non existent on the outside of the bubble. This game won't really help them jump up and they should win. Consequences of losing to a 10-19 team at home this point would be obvious.

ALR is a 15 point favourite. There not going to lose this one, and we want to them to win next week.

LSU is well out. This win won't really help the resume, just avoid the bas loss. Game at Kentucky this weekend is the big one for them.

Another knock by 12 seed SD St, would reduce there chance as an at-large and get closer to make MWC only a bid league.

 

[jncuse]

Interesting scheduling by St. Mary's. Grand Canyon is around #100 in KP from the now terrible WAC. No line given but I suspect it would be around 10.

 

[jncuse]

Keeping it Simple

What would be a good night

- Kentucky beats Florida
- Louisville beat Georgia Tech

Obviously a bad loss by somebody would be nice, but can't really expect that.

 

[pearl31]

check off the needed Florida result.
Now just need L'vlle to turn it up a little bit in the 2nd half.

 

[MickGoCuse5]

Is Dayton a lock for an at-large at this point? They're down by 8 to an almost .500 Richmond team.

Could be an important loss.

 

[pearl31]

Is Dayton a lock for an at-large at this point? They're down by 8 to an almost .500 Richmond team.

Could be an important loss.

they're a lock, but have not been good lately at all... I mean I guess if they were to somehow lose out then they'd have to sweat a bit

 

[jncuse]

Clemson done. Even if they reach the ACC final and lose, they are not making it.

 

[jncuse]

Dayton is a lock. Given that this is a road game and the last game is VCU, they just can't do enough damage to themselves by losing out.

They are 10-4 entering this game against the top 100, have OOC wins against Iowa + Vanderbilt (not at home), and really only one bad loss.

 

[jncuse]

Looks like Louisville is about to finish off the Jackets.

I think every other game is turning out as predicted. Teams that were large favourites were winning.

Good day overall. Since San Diego St is uncertain as a bubble buster based on their rep, a loss in their pick em game New Mexico tonight would be nice.

 

[jncuse]

Oops may have made an early call on Georgia Tech. They are now only done 3.

 

[Ghost]

Oops may have made an early call on Georgia Tech. They are now only done 3.

What's with the comebacks today?

I think Oklahoma was up 43-19 in this one...Baylor down 3 now.

 

[jdubs30]

Pretty good day overall. Teams below/around us keep losing. Looking more and more like a win @FSU on Saturday will be enough to get us in.

 

[jncuse]

Louisville Survives.

Not related to the bubble, but Iowa is really falling apart down the stretch. Losing by 6 at home to Indiana at half.. this would be the fourth loss in a row for them (including 2 at home, and 1 at Penn St)

And on a more serious note not related to the tourney and seemingly becoming a bigger problem. Top college basketball programs without satisfactory eye candy. I understand the expectations needs to be lower for cheerleaders in a non SEC or P12 program, but if you are good and in a major conference, a certain baseline needs to be reached. I expect more from a program like Louisville - that was a disgraceful showcase tonight.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Louisville Survives.

Not related to the bubble, but Iowa is really falling apart down the stretch. Losing by 6 at home to Indiana at half.. this would be the fourth loss in a row for them (including 2 at home, and 1 at Penn St)

And on a more serious note not related to the tourney and seemingly becoming a bigger problem. Top college basketball programs without satisfactory eye candy. I understand the expectations needs to be lower for a non SEC or P12 program, but if you good and in a major conference, a certain baseline needs to be reached. I expect more from a program like Louisville - that was a disgraceful showcase tonight.

Who are your top 5 teams closest to the tourney, but still on the bubble?

 

[Chris02M]

for me the top group of bubble teams is :
providence
uconn
pitt
us
Vanderbilt


which for me is 2 8 seeds and 3 9 seeds

 

[Ghost]

Louisville Survives.

Not related to the bubble, but Iowa is really falling apart down the stretch. Losing by 6 at home to Indiana at half.. this would be the fourth loss in a row for them (including 2 at home, and 1 at Penn St)

And on a more serious note not related to the tourney and seemingly becoming a bigger problem. Top college basketball programs without satisfactory eye candy. I understand the expectations needs to be lower for cheerleaders in a non SEC or P12 program, but if you are good and in a major conference, a certain baseline needs to be reached. I expect more from a program like Louisville - that was a disgraceful showcase tonight.

Iowa beating Michigan State twice was huge for them, but this run is very concerning. Their defense seems fairly weak - it usually is.

It seems like their biggest weaknesses would be exploited by teams like Michigan State, but they got them twice (as mentioned before). They do have enough offense, transition especially, to put points on the board though, so they'll always be dangerous on any given night. Not sure what to make of them now though.

 

[Ghost]

ooooooooh, watch out. Seth Greenberg just boldly declared if LSU gets a win against UK they are a LOCK for the NCAA tourney.

 

[jncuse]

Who are your top 5 teams closest to the tourney, but still on the bubble?

I'll refer to the matrix first (consensus) then my opinion

If I refer to the bracket matrix, the consensus after tonight's Florida loss would probably be :

1. Florida
2. St. Bonaventure
3. Alabama
4. Gonzaga

All these 4 teams would probably be close to each other. I have a hard time finding a 5th team right now -- GW, LSU, Ohio St all have alot to work to do. I guess Ohio St would be closest, because they can jump into close to an "in" spot with a win in their next game -- if it wins at Michigan St. Tall task.

Of those above teams, I would not be surprised to see them take Gonzaga. It just seems that the most "oddball" calls in or out, have occurred with teams that have lower sample sizes of top 50 games played. They have a lack of wins, but no bad losses either. I think if the rely on the "Eye Test" for lower tier mid-majors, the rep of Gonzaga may help them.

I am not particularly high on Tulsa or Oregon St (teams that are seen as in). The committee has not been kind to the AAC in recent years, and Tulsa would have 11 losses as an at-large. And I think the committee may discount all the inbred top 50 wins P12 schools are getting, and if there is to be a victim for that it would be Oregon St.

So my guess as last 4 out right now is:
1. Tulsa
2. Florida
3. St Bonaventure
4. Alabama

#5 - Ohio St (only because they jump up quickly if they win next game)

NOTE - If there are bubble busters, every team moves down a spot so the top 5 could get a bit better by Selection Sunday. I am not impressed with them right now.

 

[jncuse]

RPI Forecast has now updated their projections to include conference tournaments. As you can see from above, they are expecting us to lose at FSU (we will probably be slight dogs) and have us at 1-1 in the ACC. I am not sure exactly how they come up with this model, as it seems there are more factors in play then a straight schedule.

But I will trust it to be a reasonable projection.

 

[jncuse]

Uthoff loses, but he seems to have hit a home run with his fiance they showed in the crowd. Very nice -- and she is a golfer too.

Iowa plays at Michigan this weekend -- this will be a major game for Michigan. Neither team is playing well right now, but somebody will need to win/

 

[jncuse]

WEDNESDAY GAMES

Currently an #8 seed, Pitt probably needs to win one more game to be safe... and none of them will be at home (Vtech, Gtech, ACC tourney)

VCU is last 4 in on the matrix. Should win this home game.

Probably one of the games of the night. Bonnies get a chance for a top 30 win at home, when they are one of 4 last teams out.

Seton Hall should be fine at this point. Butler is a last team in, so let's hope Seton Hall comes through as the slight road dog.

 

[jncuse]

WED (part 2)

Providence is a 9 seed. Should be OK if they take care of St. John's next. Creighton is way out as of now, but if they win at Providence and win at Xavier this week, they jump into the picture,

Neither team can feel comfortable with a loss. Both are in, (as of now), USC a little more ahead.

 

[jncuse]

Keeping it Simple

It's an important night with several key games. Here are the most desirable outcomes from games tomorrow with a line of 5 points or less. 2 out od 4 would be fine.

St, Joes over St. Bonaventure
Seton Hall over Butler
Arkansas over Alabama
Virginia Tech over Pitt.

 

[orange79]

ooooooooh, watch out. Seth Greenberg just boldly declared if LSU gets a win against UK they are a LOCK for the NCAA tourney.

LOL - what does Seth (3 bids in 22 years as HC) Greenberg know about the NCAA tournament?