saying the schedule is easy only means that it has at most 1-2 game difference from the hardest one.. you still play all the teams. as to who we played home and away its debatable. who are we comparing the schedule against.. other ACC reams or some other league? Duke at home is still a harder game than many teams hardest game.
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Bubble Watch - Week of February 25th to March 3rd
- Thread starter jncuse
- Start date
SUFan44
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Top 50 and Top 25 wins are huge. We saw that last year with St. Bonaventure/Syracuse.
If RPI and other metrics were used, the Bonnies would have been in over Syracuse. Monmouth is another example.
I think that will hold true again. Barring 3 straight losses, I think we get in.
If RPI and other metrics were used, the Bonnies would have been in over Syracuse. Monmouth is another example.
I think that will hold true again. Barring 3 straight losses, I think we get in.
Briancuse
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They are finished.
Briancuse
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There is no such thing as a soft acc schedule.All schedules aren't equal, but 4-12 is 4-12, I don't care how tough of a schedule you play, that is awful.
Briancuse
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I dont even think they are close.
jdubs30
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jncuse
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Note (Pitt is actually 15-14, record was not updated after loss)
This was the big unlikely win they needed. Technically, they can probably still get in without winning the ACC tourney, but it will require them winning out to the semi's to be considered... that would be a 5 game winning streak. (unlikely)
Briancuse
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Pitt will be lucky to get a split this week, 5-13, they aren't getting in unless they get to the finals.
jncuse
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I personally thought Clemson was a legit contender for a spot if they won out the ACC regular season. And they had 2 games after this that they should win. But this one was the key.
They will need a long run in the ACC.
NineOneSeven
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iommi
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Why do you want to avoid UVA? Payback factor? That didn't work for them a few weeks ago.
They looked better today with Guy getting more playing time but their offense is pretty pedestrian.
jncuse
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Before we get to far into this week, my probabilities are as follows
No Wins - 5% or Less
One Win (Louisville) - 90%+
One Win (Georgia Tech) - around 50%
Two Wins - 99%
For the 50% with one win, as I showed in another thread last night there is still to many moving parts. Many teams have one more regular season game than us. So many teams should have 2 wins or more over our 1 win. And while GT at home is nice, it's not a massive game changer.
I also want to add Commitee "JIE" to explain below. The closer is it is the harder it is to predict what the committee will do.
No Wins - 5% or Less
One Win (Louisville) - 90%+
One Win (Georgia Tech) - around 50%
Two Wins - 99%
For the 50% with one win, as I showed in another thread last night there is still to many moving parts. Many teams have one more regular season game than us. So many teams should have 2 wins or more over our 1 win. And while GT at home is nice, it's not a massive game changer.
I also want to add Commitee "JIE" to explain below. The closer is it is the harder it is to predict what the committee will do.
iommi
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I thought your % with just a Georgia Tech win was a lot has higher a couple days ago?
jncuse
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I'm going to start saying Committee JIE a lot in the next few weeks. My new nerdy bad acronym.
It stands for Commitee Judgment, Inconsistency and Error. This is a big reason why I can't say more than 50% with one more win.
Committee Judgment - Many of these teams are close. There are many factors and metrics that they look at (5 or 6 primary ones for bubble teams). It's not easy to separate teams. Sometimes there is no right choice.
Committee Inconsistency : These are the primary factors for bubble teams based on importance
Starting from the most important and I am paraphrasing**
Quality Wins
Ability to Perform Away from Home
Scheduling - Non Conference SOS
Individual Team Rankings
Head to Head vs Other Bubble Teams
**I have seen a screen pop up about 3 times the last week on game broadcasts that say the same thing. I think it is official, but I can't confirm.
Syracuse is obviously great in the largest primary factor. We have good analytical rankings other than RPI and head to head we are good.
We are terrible on the road, our non-conference SOS is weak. and our RPI would be the worst ever to get in the NCAA tournament if we only win one game.
How much do they weight the highest primary factor against lower primary factors. I don't think all committees will do it the same way. We would be OK with last year's committee but maybe not this year. This does not mean the committee made an error either.
Committee Error - There is always the risk that the committee does something stupid or very "odd".
It stands for Commitee Judgment, Inconsistency and Error. This is a big reason why I can't say more than 50% with one more win.
Committee Judgment - Many of these teams are close. There are many factors and metrics that they look at (5 or 6 primary ones for bubble teams). It's not easy to separate teams. Sometimes there is no right choice.
Committee Inconsistency : These are the primary factors for bubble teams based on importance
Starting from the most important and I am paraphrasing**
Quality Wins
Ability to Perform Away from Home
Scheduling - Non Conference SOS
Individual Team Rankings
Head to Head vs Other Bubble Teams
**I have seen a screen pop up about 3 times the last week on game broadcasts that say the same thing. I think it is official, but I can't confirm.
Syracuse is obviously great in the largest primary factor. We have good analytical rankings other than RPI and head to head we are good.
We are terrible on the road, our non-conference SOS is weak. and our RPI would be the worst ever to get in the NCAA tournament if we only win one game.
How much do they weight the highest primary factor against lower primary factors. I don't think all committees will do it the same way. We would be OK with last year's committee but maybe not this year. This does not mean the committee made an error either.
Committee Error - There is always the risk that the committee does something stupid or very "odd".
jncuse
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Maybe I had it at 60%, but has never been higher than that as far as I remember. I have been on this 50-60% number for the last few days -- I had a lengthy discussion on it yesterday.
If I had it higher than 60% it was probably immediately after the Duke Game, but I quickly adjusted it by the next day after re-analysis.
One interesting game you didn't have listed was Miami/Duke (the national CBS game at 4pm). Miami was at the top of the new bubble list this morning, so has a little breathing room at the moment, but you never know if they go on a big losing streak. They are at FSU and at Va Tech next, both of which are great at home. And their first ACCT game will be a team very capable of beating them like a UVA or Cuse or Va Tech. Thus, it's not unfathomable that they could lose 4 straight. In addition, after the tremendous win vs Duke, we sure don't want that win devalued at all. So although no one wants to proactively "root" for Duke (or at least admit it publicly), I think it's a no-brainer that we all root for Miami to lose...
jncuse
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Tennessee was on my secondary bubble (lots of work to do). They needed something big like getting a top 25/50 road win. And they blew it.
They need to make a run and find a way to take out Florida or Kentucky in the SEC tourney to even re-enter the discussion. Less than 5% chance of getting in now.
iommi
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Ugh. I look at it this way: if we get swept by Georgia Tech, including losing on our Senior Day, we have sealed our fates.
I think we are closer to 80% with only a Georgia Tech win but I respect your knowledge and research, so that concerns me.
