Bubble Watch - Week of February 25th to March 3rd | Page 4 | Syracusefan.com

Bubble Watch - Week of February 25th to March 3rd

Tom W. said:
Kansas State down 15 with 11 mind to go. That would be a bad loss for them. Lots of time, let's hop OU holds on.
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Bruce Weber will be gone if they don't make the tournament. Many were already upset he wasn't gone last year when they could have gone after Brad Underwood.
 
Took a bit of time away, but the major positive for us the past few hours was this game,

upload_2017-2-25_20-57-47.png


Kansas St was the last team in per the matrix and was destroyed.
 
Also from earlier in the day, in a toss up game

upload_2017-2-25_21-0-42.png


I think we got the better result here because Marquette is more likely to slide
 
Cuse House said:
Not a good day for us bubble wise. Big wins by some other bubble teams. We certainly still have some work to do. We've hit a nice approach but still have a 5 foot putt to save par.

(I'm dreaming of spring)
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I got out today. Shot a 95. Not happy with the 9 on hole 7 but other than that, decent for me. Back to your original programming...
 
Analyzing Today - Good or Bad? All games on the primary bubble have played their games today. Focusing on some secondary bubble teams (who have a lot to do, good or bad) will unnecessarily muddy things.


upload_2017-2-25_21-4-24.png


I think overall it has been a positive day for us. Yes there are quite a few wins up there -- but the Seton Hall, Cal, Illinois St, Vanderbilt wins aren't really going to help their resume and those teams were expected to win against bad teams.

Kansas St had a really bad loss. TCU and Clemson had major win opportunities at home and failed. Those are all big positives for Syracuse. Providence may be our equals now, but Marquette may be the easier target to get in front of by seasons' end.

Rhode Island won the must win game at home against a fellow tourney team. Will the committee respect the A-10? Rhode Island is top 50 in all the analytical rankings. As a comparison St. Bonaventure was not last year.

That last spot is a real toss up right now.
 
Secondary Games (teams on the outside with quite a bit of work to do)
12:00 UNC at Pitt LOSS
12:00 Georgetown at St. John's LOSS
1:00 Tennessee at South Carolina LOSS
2:00 Texas Tech at Oklahoma St LOSS
3:30 Missouri at Ole Miss WIN
6:00 LSU at Georgia WIN
8:00 Northwestern at Indiana WINNING


This is also a positive for us. The # of valid teams on the outside is definetely shrinking. Ole Miss and Georgia won but those are not "movers". Indiana could have the best win, but they will start to make Northwestern a little scared. Indiana still has to follow this up.
 
The group that did the best today was the teams that were in the tourney, arguably in a group above us but not locked. They did well, but in my view the weakening of the bottom of the bubble is good enough,

These are teams like Michigan, Miami, Virginia Tech, Arkansas. They are probably all locked after today, except for maybe Arkansas.
 
orangenirvana said:
Uh oh, Northwestern.

Don't write them into the dance with a sharpie just yet, folks.
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I agree. With games against Michigan and Purdue coming up they could be looking at 4 straight losses and 7 of 9 overall.
 
orangenirvana said:
Uh oh, Northwestern.

Don't write them into the dance with a sharpie just yet, folks.
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I agree. For a while I have said they need 1 more to lock this thing up, and they are spinning wheels now. They might feel more pressure based on history than any other team.

Alternatively, Indiana is still hanging around. If they win at Purdue, while unlikely, they are right back in the heat of the bubble race. As bad as they have been they have Kansas and North Carolina in their back pocket. Add Michigan St, Northwestern, and Purdue to that and they have the quality wins.
 
Any chance a mod can reference this post # on the front page first post? . "See Sunday Schedule on Post 88" for example.

Sunday Schedule
Probability per Sagarin

Primary Bubble (want bold to lose)
1:00 Middle Tennessee* (70%) at UAB
2:00 Syracuse (14%) at Louisville
4:00 Wisconsin at Michigan St (37%)
5:00 Houston (58%) at Memphis
6:30 Georgia Tech (12%) at Notre Dame
7:30 Illinois (44%) at Nebraska

Secondary Bubble (Generally need to win out or lose out until conference tourney)
3:30 Butler at Xavier(51%) **
6:30 USC (62%) at Arizona St


Notes
* Middle Tennessee St is one of the few potential bubble busters from the one team conferences.
** Xavier is battling through suspensions and injuries (could not find updates). If they keep losing they will eventually find themselves in trouble. The above probability does not factor the current roster issues.
 
Am I wrong to have been thinking more about what seed we'll get than if we get in, even assuming a loss at The Yum? I know I'm a bit different, so feel free to pelt me with quarters if you think I'm out of line.
 
CaptainJ said:
Am I wrong to have been thinking more about what seed we'll get than if we get in, even assuming a loss at The Yum? I know I'm a bit different, so feel free to pelt me with quarters if you think I'm out of line.
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This is the site to use - it's an easy look, without getting fully caught up in all the talk in this thread which might be a little obsessive.

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2017

So if I looked at those from today (dates at top), you get the following. It's as of now, not a prediction for season end.

upload_2017-2-25_23-37-11.png


So it seems around a 10 seed. But that is very close to missing the tourney as well which is why we are focusing on every other team around that.
 
jncuse said:
This is the site to use - it's an easy look, without getting fully caught up in all the talk in this thread which might be a little obsessive.

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2017

So if I looked at those from today (dates at top), you get the following. It's as of now, not a prediction for season end.

View attachment 90352

So it seems around a 10 seed. But that is very close to missing the tourney as well which is why we are focusing on every other team around that.
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Thanks! As long as I remember, I may be checking daily like a rat who has to press a button to keep getting his coke or MDMA and/or Viagra.
 
CaptainJ said:
Thanks! As long as I remember, I may be checking daily like a rat who has to press a button to keep getting his coke or MDMA and/or Viagra.
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IMO it is the best tool out there for someone who doesn't want to spend a whole bunch of time reading the minutia of bubble talk.
 
jncuse said:
IMO it is the best tool out there for someone who doesn't want to spend a whole bunch of time reading the minutia of bubble talk.
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Sometimes I like the minutia, sometimes I don't. Reminds me of this commercial:

 
orange79 said:
FWIW, Palm now has moved up to the 2nd last team in. TCU, KSU out. Also note, 10 ACC teams as Wake is now the last team in.

Man, if this is how it works out, I'm not sure how I could contain my sorrow for Wichita St coach Gregg Marshall. ;)

View attachment 90358
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So the "like" was for posting the latest--not for the content of Palm's bracket. This makes me very nervous as I know many think Palm is the best in the business (I recall Bees commenting on him multiple times over the years). So we are the 2nd to last team in and are 10 point underdogs today (14% chance). This sure does not give me a "warm and fuzzy" feeling even with a win next Sat (which certainly is no guarantee either, considering GT will need the win even more than we do). Many of us have been relying on the daily changes of the Bracket Matrix, but I know the final version missed multiple teams last year--3 misses maybe? (Tulsa, Cuse, Vandy come to mind). Not sure about anyone else, but I know personally I will be on pins and needles 2 weeks from today unless we pick up 2 more wins before then.
 
nycfan said:
So the "like" was for posting the latest--not for the content of Palm's bracket. This makes me very nervous as I know many think Palm is the best in the business (I recall Bees commenting on him multiple times over the years). So we are the 2nd to last team in and are 10 point underdogs today (14% chance). This sure does not give me a "warm and fuzzy" feeling even with a win next Sat (which certainly is no guarantee either, considering GT will need the win even more than we do). Many of us have been relying on the daily changes of the Bracket Matrix, but I know the final version missed multiple teams last year--3 misses maybe? (Tulsa, Cuse, Vandy come to mind). Not sure about anyone else, but I know personally I will be on pins and needles 2 weeks from today unless we pick up 2 more wins before then.
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Bees and I have been carrying Palm's flag for years. Best in the business, IMO. Many times he corrected the NCAA in their RPI calculation.

Now when RPI is devalued as a consideration, we'll have to see.
 
nycfan said:
So the "like" was for posting the latest--not for the content of Palm's bracket. This makes me very nervous as I know many think Palm is the best in the business (I recall Bees commenting on him multiple times over the years). So we are the 2nd to last team in and are 10 point underdogs today (14% chance). This sure does not give me a "warm and fuzzy" feeling even with a win next Sat (which certainly is no guarantee either, considering GT will need the win even more than we do). Many of us have been relying on the daily changes of the Bracket Matrix, but I know the final version missed multiple teams last year--3 misses maybe? (Tulsa, Cuse, Vandy come to mind). Not sure about anyone else, but I know personally I will be on pins and needles 2 weeks from today unless we pick up 2 more wins before then.
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He also has USC as a 6 seed and Cal in safely as a 10 seed. That's absurd to me.

USC - 58/63/63/30 = 54 / 2-6 (2-5)
California - 52/44/45/51 = 48 / 1-7 (0-6)

Both of USC's top 50 wins came at home. One vs. SMU back in November, and one vs. UCLA. Both good wins, but that deserves a 6 seed??

Cal's single Top 50 win came against USC.

Doesn't seem logical to me.
 
orange79 said:
Bees and I have been carrying Palm's flag for years. Best in the business, IMO. Many times he corrected the NCAA in their RPI calculation.

Now when RPI is devalued as a consideration, we'll have to see.
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That's already happened.
 
Rpi is now one of 2-3 metrics used vs end all be all.I'll be sitting down later today for my field comparison and ranking
 

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