Bubble Watch - Week of February 4

[jncuse]

We got a bit lucky the last 2 road games. But we could have easily won the UConn game as well. So we are 2-1 in those close games.

 

[CorduroyG]

Syracuse vs Wake

A comparison of two projected resumes from RPI Forecast. Remember the fact that Syracuse has an 11-7 record in the ACC vs Wake's 8-10 record in the ACC is irrelevant. It's the entire body of work.

W-L: 19-12 vs 17-13
RPI: 63 vs 32
Top 25: 3-5 vs 0-8
Top 50: 5-7 vs 1-10
Top 100: 9-9 vs 5-13
Bad Losses: 3 vs 0
Road and Neutral Wins: 3 vs 7

This is two extremes. Wake has a great RPI, no bad losses, and a fair amount of road wins.
Syracuse has the quality wins.

So what is worth more - 4 extra top 50 wins or 3 bad losses.

To me this is a no brainer. But I wouldn't 100% count on the committee making the right call either. And of course Joe Lunardi would have Wake but that is irrelevant.

no brainer to me too. plus we beat them. 1-10 vs top 50? no chance.

 

[Dave85]

Sweep the remaining games should answer all questions.

 

[JeremyCuse]

We got a bit lucky the last 2 road games. But we could have easily won the UConn game as well. So we are 2-1 in those close games.

Its to bad we couldn't' have eeked out either UConn or the Gtown game. Having another W and taking off one of those bad losses would have us in a great position. One thing is clear we really need to win an ACC tourney game this year.

 

[jncuse]

I could be wrong but I think an RPI of 32 would be the highest ever from a P5 school to be excluded from the tourney.

The other thing Wake has going for it is a very solid KP rating of 32, BPI of 37. I think they would somehow find a way in as well. But it would be over someone else and not us.

 

[Knicks411]

no brainer to me too. plus we beat them. 1-10 vs top 50? no chance.

As far as I c an tell, their one win was Miami, at home, who is currently right at #50. They could easily end with 0 top 50 wins

 

[jncuse]

Its to bad we couldn't' have eeked out either UConn or the Gtown game. Having another W and taking off one of those bad losses would have us in a great position. One thing is clear we really need to win an ACC tourney game this year.

Possibly, but I would think at 11-7 entering the ACC tourney, we might get away with it. Will see as the tourney approaches.

 

[CorduroyG]

wake still plays at duke and home to louisville, they gotta win 1 of those

 

[Knicks411]

wake still plays at duke and home to louisville, they gotta win 1 of those

They gave the Duke game away a few weeks back. Just gave it away.

 

[orangenirvana]

We now have 2 road wins, a week ago we had 0. I would prefer winning another game against a top 10 team. What's the better argument, we won 4 away games? Or we beat 3 top 10 teams? Kind of hard to leave a team out who finishes in the top half of the best conference in the country with three top 10 wins.

I am not saying the road games aren't important, they are. We still need to find a way to win a minimum of 3 more games.

By comparison, last season SU had six road wins. Including @Duke (4 seed in NCAA's) and neutral wins over A&M (3 seed) and uconn (9 seed).

The two road wins we have so far this season came against teams who aren't likely to make the Tourney.

 

[jncuse]

Trying to keep a brief list of games to watch tonight... with a current and long term view.

Tennessee is the 2nd or 3rd last team out right now despite the so so record. An SEC can't absorb losses as good as an ACC team because they don't get the opportunities to make up for it. A home loss could start the process of them tumbling out of the picture. Only a 5 point fav at home, they could definetely lose this one.

Oklahoma St is currently a #9 seed, but I don't view any 9 seed as of now as very far from the bubble line. They lose they are 4-7 in the B12 afterall.

However, they are a 1.5 point favourite against a top 10 team. This is a big scalp opportunity for them.

Cal is currently in the tourney but just on the right side of it. These are the type of losses that really hurt you. Arizona St is not that good a team, yet they are only 4.5 point dogs. These are always very dangerous games for bubble teams.

 

[jncuse]

Minnesota benefitting from a brutal call down the stretch. Manage to tie the game vs Iowa.

They are an 8 seed, but a loss at home vs a non tourney team like Iowa would get them not too far above the cut line as of now.

 

[jncuse]

Buzz meet Seth. Virginia Tech was an 8 seed on the matrix before tonight, but with this loss, and then upcoming games vs Virginia, at Pitt... they could be in familiar territory at this time next week.

 

[jncuse]

Baylor seems like a vulnerable top 10 team right now, so this is was a big blown opportunity by Ok St.

Quite a few teams just above the line, just snuck by tonight after losing at some point in the 2nd half (seton Hall, Tennessee, and VCU)

 

[SoBeCuse]

Ok St has been on fire lately and they really get after you on D. I would say that is a very good win by Baylor in Stillwater and should keep them a legit top 10 team and a 2-seed type forecast.

 

[jncuse]

Ok St has been on fire lately and they really get after you on D. I would say that is a very good win by Baylor in Stillwater and should keep them a legit top 10 team and a 2-seed type forecast.

Definetely Baylor is a valid top 10 team... they are arguably a #1 seed as of today in my books. They were just in a mid season slump it seemed, and it was just a chance missed by Ok St for a very nice scalp as the game was basically a pick em.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Definetely Baylor is a valid top 10 team... they are arguably a #1 seed as of today in my books. They were just in a mid season slump it seemed, and it was just a chance missed by Ok St for a very nice scalp as the game was basically a pick em.

Good for us or is OK St. comfortably in?

 

[jncuse]

Was looking at KP for a different perspective on the best conference. As I looked at bubble teams, I noted the mid pack of the B12 and the B10 were ranked similarly to us. For example Oklahoma St was 21 and fairly unheralded. So I ran the data

Of course we are comparing a 10 team vs a 15 team league, so the ACC will get more seeds. But they are fairly even at the top, better in the middle, and their dogs are a bit better. The Big 10 is also competitive in the middle and does not have too many duds. It just lacks the star power which is necessary to be considered elite. The Big East is not far off. But the SEC and PAC 12 are clearly the worse 2 leagues this year.

The Big 12 seems like a 7 bid league. And while many don't like the BiG that is probably a 7 team league as well. You are probably dealing with about 24 bids from 3 conferences, which is as much as I ever remeber,

 

[SoBeCuse]

Nice work as always. We need Sparty and Ohio St. to keep losing as well. Michigan is surging (probably safely in) and Ohio St beat them in Ann Arbor last week.

 

[MSOrange]

Minnesota benefitting from a brutal call down the stretch. Manage to tie the game vs Iowa.

They are an 8 seed, but a loss at home vs a non tourney team like Iowa would get them not too far above the cut line as of now.

That was outrageous. First of all, I could hear time out being called on live tv. Granted I couldn't tell if it was the coaches or players calling it, but I could definitely see two Iowa players signal time out. Then to not miss the Minnesota guy is standing out of bands when they call the jump ball is just beyond my comprehension. There is absolutely no excuse to miss that part.

 

[jncuse]

Good for us or is OK St. comfortably in?

They still have to slip up a bit more I think to get right at the line. And they are only 4-7 in conference. They do have a soft schedule comiug up with 3 worse conference teams at home.

I think numerically the Big 12 and ACC are basically equals this year and superior numerically. There will be teams that get in below .500 if they fairly decently OOC -- Oklahoma St would be one of those that I think could get in at 8-10;

 

[jncuse]

29 of 35 now have us in per the matrix. (only including brackets posted after the Clemson game)

Not exactly sure what those other 6 need us to do. I guess they must be too focused on the bad or follow Joe Lunardi too much. As for Lunardi, he has still not updated anything since Monday. While he means nothing, it will be amusing to see if he still has us out.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Nice work as always. We need Sparty and Ohio St. to keep losing as well. Michigan is surging (probably safely in) and Ohio St beat them in Ann Arbor last week.

Michigan still hasn't won a road game.

 

[MSOrange]

29 of 35 now have us in per the matrix. (only including brackets posted after the Clemson game)

Not exactly sure what those other 6 need us to do. I guess they must be too focused on the bad or follow Joe Lunardi too much. As for Lunardi, he has still not updated anything since Monday. While he means nothing, it will be amusing to see if he still has us out.

He'll probably move us up to the top of the next four out list. Weren't we at the bottom on his last update?

 

[sugrad68]

SU is now #30 on the BPI. I think that is fairly accurate. I could argue with some of the teams ahead of us (Miami, Indiana, Iowa State) but those out-of-conference losses will continue to haunt us. Just keep winning.