Bubble Watch - Week of March 2nd

jncuse

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brackets and analysis aside if we played neutral site games against this list we would still be favored almost every time.

Are you saying "favoured" by Vegas, or favoured by you. Because Syracuse would not be favoured by Vegas in most of these.There is a very strong correlation between KenPom rankings and opening lines. People who have seen my posts, see me pull it out when a line seems odd and it matches up. Typically always within a point, very rarely two points or more.

Here are the rankings and projected lines:

Purdue 22 (-4.5)
Rutgers 27 (-3.5)
Stanford 34 (-2.5)
Wichita St 39 (-2.0)
Utah St 40 (-2.0)
Cincinnati 43 (-1.5)
Arkansas 46 (-1.0)
Providence 47 (-1.0)
Richmond 48 (-1.0)
Texas 49 (Pick em)
Miss St 51 (Pick em)
Alabama 53 (pick em)
Syracuse 54
NC St 55 (pick em)
Rhode Island 64 (+1.0)
UCLA 79 (+1.5)
 

upperdeck

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by vegas..

we would not be underdogs in an NCAA game to

Utah st
rich
prov
texas
miss st
nc st
RI
UCLA
rutgers
stanford
Arkansas


I think Purdue would be favored and Wichita st and Cinci
 

jncuse

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by vegas..

we would not be underdogs in an NCAA game to

Utah st
rich
prov
texas
miss st
nc st
RI
UCLA
rutgers
stanford
Arkansas


I think Purdue would be favored and Wichita st and Cinci

I don't agree, and I will provide backup.

Taking KP efficiency margin/100 of what teams - minus the other.
Multiplied by tempo
Adding 3.5 point home margin where applicable.
I estimated the KP Spreads tonight and compared to actual:

I picked the first 5 games today based on Bet 365 game list (did not pick and choose)
San Diego St vs Air Force - Predicted 18.5 (Actual 17.0)
Boise St vs UNLV - Predicted 2.5 (Actual 1.0)
Michigan vs Nebraska - Predicted 17.0 (Actual 17.0)
UConn vs Houston - Predicted 2.0 (Actual 2.0)
Illinois vs Ohio St - Predicted 7.0 (Actual 5.5)

As noted the KP ranking is almost always really close to actual.
 

Consigliere

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anyone who watches the B10 and thinks they have 11 tourney worthy teams is crazy no matter what the metrics say.. they have 3 teams playing well then a bunch of avg teams who just shock each other with good shooting nights. wish we could have had a couple of those nights.
Tourney worthy and 2020 tourney worthy are two different concepts. Unless the NCAA decides to cut the field to 32 there are teams that would not have sniffed the field in the past getting 9 and 10 seeds.
 

jncuse

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As conference tournaments are now starting here is the potential bubble busters.

Southern - East Tennessee St loses - An 11 seed on the matrix, they have the best chance of being a bubble buster of the low tier mid-majors.

A-10 - Dayton Loses, it will mean a team that is currently on the outside will get in. If they do lose you hope that it is Richmond or Rhode Island as they may have already been considered in.

MWC - San Diego St Loses. This might only be a one bid league. Utah St is very close to an at-large.

American - Houston Loses - Wichita St and Cincy may get at larges as well, but certainly best if Houston wins the conference tourney.

Other teams who would be longshots as at-large bubble busters are Northern Iowa (MVC), Yale (Ivy), Stone Cold Steve Austin (Southland), Liberty (Atlantic Sun). Not that I would expect they get in, but to be safe a bubble team would want them all to win their conference tourney. From a Syracuse perspective if we don't make and NCAAT run, it might help our NIT seed.

As usual there is always a risk of a massive surprise in a power conference, but that is extremely rare. I don't see bubble busters in any of the following conferences:
Big 10
Big 12
Pac 12
Big East
ACC
SEC
WCC (Gonzaga, BYU, St. Mary;s)
 

djorange1989

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brackets and analysis aside if we played neutral site games against this list we would still be favored almost every time.

we would? why? because we swept Pitt , BC and Ga Tech? we are not as good as most of the teams on the list. we beat UVA on the road, that's cool. that's also all we can talk about. Our OOC performance was horrible, both Oklahoma State and Georgetown pounded us and neither are NCAA teams. We have the UVA road win and we played Florida State close and lost, but all of the other strong teams we played(Duke, Ville, home game with UVA, Iowa, Penn State) beat the crap out of us
 

UCHusky90

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Taking KP efficiency margin/100 of what teams - minus the other.
Multiplied by tempo
Adding 3.5 point home margin where applicable.
I estimated the KP Spreads tonight and compared to actual:
I find your calculation interesting. Did you come up with that yourself or find it somewhere? What is the tempo? It doesn't appear to be a stat on the KenPom ratings.
 

jdubs30

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I find your calculation interesting. Did you come up with that yourself or find it somewhere? What is the tempo? It doesn't appear to be a stat on the KenPom ratings.
Tempo is a KenPom stat
 

jncuse

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I agree we stunk in nov/dec..

And we are 9-8 since then. Not sure how that makes us favoured against teams that are trending with 5 consecutive wins or more, and are 11-6 in the Big East, 9-8 in the Big 12, and 9-7 in the Pac 12.
 

jncuse

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I find your calculation interesting. Did you come up with that yourself or find it somewhere? What is the tempo? It doesn't appear to be a stat on the KenPom ratings.

It's the AdjT column. If you pay KP, they give you the spreads, but I just calculate it really quickly in my head off the free stuff and I think it comes very close or the same as what they have.

In general though most teams are in the 65-70 tempo range (2/3 of 100). So for a rough calculation you can always take 2/3 of the difference in adjusted margin, ignore tempo, and it works fine for teams that are within a spread of 10.
 

jncuse

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utah st probably loses first round of the MWC.

I don't think they win, but I certainly like New Mexico at +11.5.
Money line good value at +550 if you feel strongly about this one.
 

jncuse

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HT: Air Force 37, SDSt 33

Since Syracuse is such an unrealistic at large, I would like some total chaos on the bubble line over the next 2 weeks.

This would be a start.
 

djorange1989

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SDSU won by double digits but have not been playing great lately. If UNLV wins their game coming up in a bit I would not be shocked to see them take out SDSU tomorrow. Tourney is in Vegas and UNLV already beat SDSU once and was really close their other meeting too. Aztecs might be better off as number 2 out West anyway
 

MSOrange

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Is the MWC tourney normally this week? I thought it was typically next week with the Power 5 conferences
 

jncuse

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Is the MWC tourney normally this week? I thought it was typically next week with the Power 5 conferences

In 2016 it was the last weekend. Not sure since then. I remember in 2016, San Diego St entering the bubble picture late after they lost in the MWC Tourney. I forget the specifics but I am remember Joe Lunardi doing something stupid when it happened.
 

jncuse

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SDSU won by double digits but have not been playing great lately. If UNLV wins their game coming up in a bit I would not be shocked to see them take out SDSU tomorrow. Tourney is in Vegas and UNLV already beat SDSU once and was really close their other meeting too. Aztecs might be better off as number 2 out West anyway

Seems like Boise St will survive and UNLV is out.
 

jncuse

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1583476358242.png



Utah St was the first team out on the matrix entering today on 40% of brackets.
They needed this one, and avenged the loss to New Mexico last week. Unfortunately that one loss may have been enough to do them in.

They get to sit back and watch everything next week. Would be stressful if I was a Utah St fan. Reminds me of 2016 when we lost to Pitt on a Tuesday, and we watched as most bubble teams only started on Thursday of that week.
 

jncuse

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1583476617862.png


Well this is some chaos.
Stanford was the 5th last team in (93% of brackets)
Wichita St was the 4th last team in (90%)

Neither is a bad loss, but when you are that close to the line every loss hurts.
Wichita St was in my last 4 in before this game, so they might be out on my bracket.

1583477009850.png

Another Q2 loss by a team that had the inside track at a spot but had to lock it up.

Arizona St was a 9 seed before this, but they certainly cannot lose this one, lose this weekend, and then lose in the Pac-12 tourney first game and feel good.

3 of 81 brackets had them out before this game, and it will be closer to a dozen tomorrow.
 

jncuse

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1583477252597.png


This has nothing to do with the bubble or the tournament, but I noticed this score.

I guess Evansville didn't build off its win against Kentucky.
 

jncuse

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My current rankings:

Last 4 In
UCLA
Texas
Wichita St
Richmond

First 4 Out
Utah St
Cincy
Purdue
NC St

I would also add that anybody that is currently a projected 9 seed or below, probably can't feel 100% safe entering Selection Sunday if they lose both of their last 2 games. Some can survive no further wins depending what happens around them.

1583477750703.png
 

jncuse

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Overall 3 teams played tonight that were between 9 and 11 seeds, and they went 0-3. (Arizona St, Stanford, Wichita St)
This certainly tosses things up a bit.
 

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