Bubble Watch - Week of March 2nd

jncuse

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Post To be continued tomorrow

This weekend's games:
As noted above I think a solid general cut-off line between lock and not safe is the 9 seed line. Some of these teams may need a win. Some may just want a win to avoid committee judgment or committee error next Sunday.



Saturday 1:00
9 Seed Florida
vs Q1 Kentucky (probably a good game for Florida as the main thing that could knock them out is a bad loss and they avoid it here)

Saturday 2:00
9 seed Texas Tech vs
Q1 Kansas (Similar comment to Florida in terms of quality of opponent... Texas Tech has loss 3 games in a row and has done a slow slide down the bracket although they should be saved by lack of time.

Saturday 6:30
9 Seed Arizona St
vs Q3 Washington St (Good time to have a realtively easy win.. but it would be a horrible time for a bad loss as well).
Arizona St is still a solid 5-8 in Q1 games, 9-11 in Q1+Q2, plus 6 road wins. So they can absorb the last loss, but they need to avoid stupid results.

9 Seed Providence vs Q3 Depaul. See Arizona St. above) Same exact philosophy here (Nice to have an easy win.. but you better win it), Depaul at 3-14 in the Big East finally fell out of the NET top 75.
 

HRE Otto IV

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On the brackets updated today.

94% of the brackets had 10 B10 teams
25% of them had 11 B10 teams.

A part of the Big East legacy is that it is still the only conference to get 11, or even 10, teams in the tourney.

Obviously many of us still have a special place for the old Big East. What are your thoughts if the 11 was matched?

Percentage wise 10 would beat the Big East. That being said the Big East that year had good teams. This B1G is full of mediocrity.
 

Cuseball

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N.Iowa losing as the 1 seed is potentially big

northern Iowa is out. That was a loss they could not afford. That’s a one bid league. Northern Iowa is headed to NIT.

CUSE
 

jdubs30

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northern Iowa is out. That was a loss they could not afford. That’s a one bid league. Northern Iowa is headed to NIT.

CUSE
Potentially yes but if I’m a bubble team I would have preferred N. Iowa to win the MWC.

Theyre 36 in NET. @ Colorado is a VERY impressive win. But they’re 4-3 in Q1+Q2 which isn’t ideal. No Q4 losses. 8 road wins.

Probably not a tourney resume but wouldn’t be a complete shock either
 

Cuseball

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Potentially yes but if I’m a bubble team I would have preferred N. Iowa to win the MWC.

Theyre 36 in NET. @ Colorado is a VERY impressive win. But they’re 4-3 in Q1+Q2 which isn’t ideal. No Q4 losses. 8 road wins.

Probably not a tourney resume but wouldn’t be a complete shock either
agreed more comfortable if they won but ultimately I think there bad losses (Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Drake, Loyola Chicago, Indiana State) knock them out. Colorado win is good but nothing besides that.

Cuse!
 

jncuse

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N.Iowa losing as the 1 seed is potentially big

I put them in my not likely to get an at large list, but not to be totally ignored either.
If I was on the bubble line, I would have wanted them to win.

4-3 vs Q1+ Q2 lacks in quantity, but is fine in terms of %
NET of 36 which is good
Win at Colorado is a bigger marquee win that some other bubble teams,
In term of power ratings which may tend to be used more for real mid majors like NIowa - 47 in KP, 64 in Sagarin, will not help them.

To me these were the type of teams they brought in the Q1/Q2 in for so at least they had more games that were considered quality. That being this is the type of resume that has been ignored, so I will have to say not. But not 100% no.
 

jdubs30

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I put them in my not likely to get an at large list, but not to be totally ignored either.
If I was on the bubble line, I would have wanted them to win.

4-3 vs Q1+ Q2 lacks in quantity, but is fine in terms of %
NET of 36 which is good
Win at Colorado is a bigger marquee win that some other bubble teams,
In term of power ratings which may tend to be used more for real mid majors like NIowa - 47 in KP, 64 in Sagarin, will not help them.

To me these were the type of teams they brought in the Q1/Q2 in for so at least they had more games that were considered quality. That being this is the type of resume that has been ignored, so I will have to say not. But not 100% no.
Yep. I agree. I wouldn’t put them in, and if they were to not win the MWC, the bubble is certainly glad they added a “bad loss” instead of losing in the championship game.

But we’ve seen crazier things happen than a team like N.Iowa get an at-large. If I’m a bubble team i was hoping they’d win the conference. This will Take an NIT spot from someone though
 

jncuse

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agreed more comfortable if they won but ultimately I think there bad losses (Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Drake, Loyola Chicago, Indiana State) knock them out. Colorado win is good but nothing besides that.

Cuse!

I wouldn't classify "At Loyola Chicago" and "at Indiana St" as bad losses. They are Q2
Do you consider our losses to Notre Dame and NC St at home to be bad losses?
They are equally as mediocre.
Obviously the losses will hurt them however. If they had just won one of the games they would have a 5-2 (Q1+Q2) record which is hard to ignore.

Northern Iowa has 3 bad losses (10-3 in Q3). Below average, but a number of bubble teams that are worse or similar. Only showing those at are worse.

Worse
Providence 1-4
Cincy 6-4
Alabama 4-3
NC St 4-2
UCLA 4-2
 

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