Buffalo Bills 2018

[OrangeDW]

No discussion of the Eagles and Bills having a discussion re: McCoy trade?

Supposedly Buffalo is asking for both a 2nd and 3rd round pick (which is absolutely ridiculous), but I am curious to see if this goes anywhere.

Aging, pricy RB on a rebuilding team - ship him out if the return is decent. You got some legitimacy and a playoff berth out of him.

 

[Melancer46]

No discussion of the Eagles and Bills having a discussion re: McCoy trade?

Supposedly Buffalo is asking for both a 2nd and 3rd round pick (which is absolutely ridiculous), but I am curious to see if this goes anywhere.

On the flipside, John Clayton is reporting that Philly would likely be offering a 5th round pick for McCoy or possibly a 4th for McCoy and a 5th.

 

[MSOrange]

On the flipside, John Clayton is reporting that Philly would likely be offering a 5th round pick for McCoy or possibly a 4th for McCoy and a 5th.

I think that might be more realistic at this point in his career.

 

[Melancer46]

I think that might be more realistic at this point in his career.

I agree. It's pretty much exactly what I expected, and that's why I probably wouldn't bother with it.

If they could get a 3rd or maybe a 4th with no strings attached, I'd consider it.

 

[NateW]

There is no point in trading your best player for a 4th or a 5th. Hard pass.

Silly offer by the Eagles. You have to at least start at a 3rd rounder.

Especially since they’re the team that wanted a pirate’s booty for Nick Foles. Haha

 

[bpo57]

There is no point in trading your best player for a 4th or a 5th. Hard pass.

Silly offer by the Eagles. You have to at least start at a 3rd rounder.

Especially since they’re team that wanted a pirate’s booty for Nick Foles. Haha

NFL teams often value draft picks like gold. I'd be surprised if Philly coughed up a 3rd rounder for McCoy.

 

[NateW]

NFL teams often value draft picks like gold. I'd be surprised if Philly coughed up a 3rd rounder for McCoy.

And I’m sure the Bills are perfectly fine with that.

The Eagles are the ones that called inquiring about him... Bills have all the leverage. They aren’t in cap hell, they aren’t 20 games out of first in July. You can’t just steal a team’s best and most marketable player (for 4 years running now) for a 4th or a 5th.

 

[Toga]

And I’m sure the Bills are perfectly fine with that.

The Eagles are the ones that called inquiring about him... Bills have all the leverage. They aren’t in cap hell, they aren’t 20 games out of first in July. You can’t just steal a team’s best and most marketable player (for 4 years running now) for a 4th or a 5th.

and keep in mind - if the pick is for next year's draft, it's gonna be a late in round pick. It's the Eagles.

 

[shandeezy7]

and keep in mind - if the pick is for next year's draft, it's gonna be a late in round pick. It's the Eagles.

We'll see about that. They are 2-3 right now and have looked pretty pedestrian all year. They may still win that trash division, but being a late-in-round pick is no guarantee.

 

[bpo57]

And I’m sure the Bills are perfectly fine with that.

The Eagles are the ones that called inquiring about him... Bills have all the leverage. They aren’t in cap hell, they aren’t 20 games out of first in July. You can’t just steal a team’s best and most marketable player (for 4 years running now) for a 4th or a 5th.

And that's why I don't see a deal happening between the two. Giving up a 3rd rounder for a RB over 30 who has potential legal problems is not likely.

 

[longislandcuse]

No discussion of the Eagles and Bills having a discussion re: McCoy trade?

Supposedly Buffalo is asking for both a 2nd and 3rd round pick (which is absolutely ridiculous), but I am curious to see if this goes anywhere.

Honestly, not into it.

A 2nd would be tempting, but a 3rd, assuming Philly gets it together, could end up being almost equivalent to any early 4th.

I honestly don’t want picks.

We have a ton of cap space. Even more cap space if they take his contract for next year.

We have 10 draft picks.

If they want to trade us Nelson Agholar or Dallas Goedert then I’ll listen.

 

[rrlbees]

McDermott won't throw shade on McCoy report

 

[NateW]

McDermott won't throw shade on McCoy report

The trade talks are definitely on. They may carry forward for a couple weeks. It’s going to depend on how the next two games go for Buffalo if that is true...

0-2: a 4th or a 5th would probably do it

1-1: a 3rd

2-0: a 2nd and another mid to late round pick. Seems steep but at 4-3 the Bills wouldn’t let Shady go unless the offer was an overpay.


This all assuming the Eagles go either 2-0 or 1-1.

 

[longislandcuse]

The trade talks are definitely on. They may carry forward for a couple weeks. It’s going to depend on how the next two games go for Buffalo if that is true...

0-2: a 4th or a 5th would probably do it

1-1: a 3rd

2-0: a 2nd and another mid to late round pick. Seems steep but at 4-3 the Bills wouldn’t let Shady go unless the offer was an overpay.


This all assuming the Eagles go either 2-0 or 1-1.

This is the first McBeane move where I’m legitimately rolling by eyes.

I know we looked good against Minn with Ivory/Murphy, and they may actually be more of the “one cut and go” runner that we want for this offense, but Shady finally looked like Shady against Tennessee and now we’re like MOARRR DRAFT PICKSSSS

 

[NateW]

This is the first McBeane move where I’m legitimately rolling by eyes.

I know we looked good against Minn with Ivory/Murphy, and they may actually be more of the “one cut and go” runner that we want for this offense, but Shady finally looked like Shady against Tennessee and now we’re like MOARRR DRAFT PICKSSSS

I hear ya. But if we lose the next two. We’re 2-5 with two NE games left. That puts us square on 7 losses already. Season is over.

If you win or split the next two the Eagles would have to bowl McBeane over with a big offer.

The overarching theme of a potential trade is that Shady probably isn’t going to be on this roster when the Bills are reasonably anticipating playoff wins. Might as well sell high.

 

[longislandcuse]

I hear ya. But if we lose the next two. We’re 2-5 with two NE games left. That puts us square on 7 losses already. Season is over.

If you win or split the next two the Eagles would have to bowl McBeane over with a big offer.

The overarching theme of a potential trade is that Shady probably isn’t going to be on this roster when the Bills are reasonably anticipating playoff wins. Might as well sell high.

I get that, no doubt.

I just don’t know that Shady isn’t (or can’t be) in the plans next year.

We have a ton of FA $$$ and a full Draft plus additional 4th and 5th round picks. Let’s say we sign 2-3 WRs in FA to go with Zay Jones. Resign our own guys that we want to keep. Even go after an Anthony Barr. We still have money left over because there aren’t any #1 guys - we’re looking at Golden Tate, Quincy Enunwa, Tyrell Williams, Donte Moncrief types. Not much OL in FA, so we probably go OL heavy in the early rounds.

 

[NateW]

What do u guys think of the thought flying around that Anderson is being brought in to play - not just be a mentor?

I don’t like it - because I don’t see Allen as a guy who is playing scared or could be “broken” by poor performances or poor protection.

Would not be the end of the world by any means, but I wouldn’t like it.

 

[longislandcuse]

What do u guys think of the thought flying around that Anderson is being brought in to play - not just be a mentor?

I don’t like it - because I don’t see Allen as a guy who is playing scared or could be “broken” by poor performances or poor protection.

Would not be the end of the world by any means, but I wouldn’t like it.

Not a fan either.

We probably would be a legit playoff contender if Anderson could read NFL defenses and make the requisite throw given our defense and running game, but I’d rather take my chances with Allen.

If Josh never started this year, then fine, give him the Mahomes treatment...but he has.

“Monkeys out of the bottle, man..”

 

[Melancer46]

This is the first McBeane move where I’m legitimately rolling by eyes.

I know we looked good against Minn with Ivory/Murphy, and they may actually be more of the “one cut and go” runner that we want for this offense, but Shady finally looked like Shady against Tennessee and now we’re like MOARRR DRAFT PICKSSSS

I think the "Trade McCoy" perspective is very understandable. He's a 30 year old RB that's declined each of the past 3 years. That alone suggests that if you can get decent value in a trade for him, you should definitely consider it. Add in the fact that he's probably paid roughly twice what he's worth at this point and it makes even more sense.

To me, a 3rd rounder is a no-brainer. A 4th rounder would make me think about it. A 5th or anything less...I probably wouldn't bother with it.

But even if Buffalo keeps McCoy this year, I think there will be a discussion about cutting him in the offseason given his age and contract. You could realistically sign a free agent that's roughly the same caliber player as 31 year old McCoy for less than half the money and then also realistically draft a RB of the same caliber for roughly 1/10th of McCoy's cost.

 

[longislandcuse]

I think the "Trade McCoy" perspective is very understandable. He's a 30 year old RB that's declined each of the past 3 years. That alone suggests that if you can get decent value in a trade for him, you should definitely consider it. Add in the fact that he's probably paid roughly twice what he's worth at this point and it makes even more sense.

To me, a 3rd rounder is a no-brainer. A 4th rounder would make me think about it. A 5th or anything less...I probably wouldn't bother with it.

But even if Buffalo keeps McCoy this year, I think there will be a discussion about cutting him in the offseason given his age and contract. You could realistically sign a free agent that's roughly the same caliber player as 31 year old McCoy for less than half the money and then also realistically draft a RB of the same caliber for roughly 1/10th of McCoy's cost.

Do we know that he’s regressed though? Honestly, I think he looked pretty good last year and on Sunday, his quickness and lateral movement was as good as it’s ever been.

He’s definitely overpaid, based on position alone. However, it’s not like we’re overpaying him at the expense of a top of the line OL or WR. There aren’t any of them in FA.

If I had to guess, we sign our own guys. Sign 2-3 #2 WRs and go after a splash signing on defense. That still leaves room for Shadys contract and our draft picks.

I can see cutting him if his cap space is needed, but if it’s not, and I don’t know that it is, I’d rather keep him for next year.

Hope Lorax can give us one more year and then we can go heavy OL in Rounds 1,2,3 if we want.

Now, if they want to trade us Dallas Goedert or Nelson Algholar, I’m in. A 2nd and I get it. A 3rd or 4th, that’s probably a late 3rd, meh.

 

[Melancer46]

Do we know that he’s regressed though? Honestly, I think he looked pretty good last year and on Sunday, his quickness and lateral movement was as good as it’s ever been.

He’s definitely overpaid, based on position alone. However, it’s not like we’re overpaying him at the expense of a top of the line OL or WR. There aren’t any of them in FA.

If I had to guess, we sign our own guys. Sign 2-3 #2 WRs and go after a splash signing on defense. That still leaves room for Shadys contract and our draft picks.

I can see cutting him if his cap space is needed, but if it’s not, and I don’t know that it is, I’d rather keep him for next year.

Hope Lorax can give us one more year and then we can go heavy OL in Rounds 1,2,3 if we want.

Now, if they want to trade us Dallas Goedert or Nelson Algholar, I’m in. A 2nd and I get it. A 3rd or 4th, that’s probably a late 3rd, meh.

I agree that getting a guy like Goedert or Agholor would be preferred but I don't think that's really realistic. MAYBE Agholor if Buffalo is lucky since he's been pretty disappointing this season. I also agree that given the cap space Buffalo is already projected to have, there probably is not a need to release McCoy in the offseason. I think it might be the best move anyways though; I think there's a realistic chance that you can upgrade the RB position while paying the replacements far less money, and if they can trade him and pick up a solid draft pick in the process, all the better IMO.

Regarding the regression, I don't think he has nearly the burst that he did a few years ago. He can still make jumpcuts fine, but he doesn't really run away from people anymore, and I don't think he trusts the holes that are blocked for him as much as he once did.

Looking at Football Outsiders, his DVOA and Success Rate numbers (in that order) dating back to 2015:

2015: 8.8% (11th out of 44) / 47%
2016: 28.3% (2nd out of 42) / 51%
2017: -10.8% (38th out of 47) / 43%
2018: -18.7% (32nd out of 38) / 42%

 

[longislandcuse]

I agree that getting a guy like Goedert or Agholor would be preferred but I don't think that's really realistic. MAYBE Agholor if Buffalo is lucky since he's been pretty disappointing this season. I also agree that given the cap space Buffalo is already projected to have, there probably is not a need to release McCoy in the offseason. I think it might be the best move anyways though; I think there's a realistic chance that you can upgrade the RB position while paying the replacements far less money, and if they can trade him and pick up a solid draft pick in the process, all the better IMO.

Regarding the regression, I don't think he has nearly the burst that he did a few years ago. He can still make jumpcuts fine, but he doesn't really run away from people anymore, and I don't think he trusts the holes that are blocked for him as much as he once did.

Looking at Football Outsiders, his DVOA and Success Rate numbers (in that order) dating back to 2015:

2015: 8.8% (11th out of 44) / 47%
2016: 28.3% (2nd out of 42) / 51%
2017: -10.8% (38th out of 47) / 43%
2018: -18.7% (32nd out of 38) / 42%

Yea, I can definitely see your point of view. I just don’t know how to evaluate him right now when we have no WRs, a Rookie QB, mediocre OL and everyone can stack the box on 80% of our Offensive plays.

 

[Melancer46]

Yea, I can definitely see your point of view. I just don’t know how to evaluate him right now when we have no WRs, a Rookie QB, mediocre OL and everyone can stack the box on 80% of our Offensive plays.

This is actually pretty interesting...NextGenStats.com now tracks precisely this.

In terms of rushing against defenses that have 8 or more defenders in the box, McCoy actually ranks below average (meaning he sees fewer stacked boxes than most). He's #25 out of 46 qualified RBs at 22% of his carries. Chris Ivory, on the other hand, is seeing stacked boxes on 40% of his carries, which ranks 4th in the league behind Royce Freeman, Alex Collins, and Bilal Powell.

Last year, McCoy ranked 15th at just under 36% of his carries. And in 2016, McCoy faced stacked boxes 26% of the time, which ranked 17th (Gillislee ranked 4th that year as a Bill at 45.5%).

So far this year, McCoy is seeing stacked boxes a lower percentage of the time than either of the prior two years; he just hasn't been able to do anything with them so far.

 

[longislandcuse]

This is actually pretty interesting...NextGenStats.com now tracks precisely this.

In terms of rushing against defenses that have 8 or more defenders in the box, McCoy actually ranks below average (meaning he sees fewer stacked boxes than most). He's #25 out of 46 qualified RBs at 22% of his carries. Chris Ivory, on the other hand, is seeing stacked boxes on 40% of his carries, which ranks 4th in the league behind Royce Freeman, Alex Collins, and Bilal Powell.

Last year, McCoy ranked 15th at just under 36% of his carries. And in 2016, McCoy faced stacked boxes 26% of the time, which ranked 17th (Gillislee ranked 4th that year as a Bill at 45.5%).

So far this year, McCoy is seeing stacked boxes a lower percentage of the time than either of the prior two years; he just hasn't been able to do anything with them so far.

That’s interesting. Good looks on that. Very surprising.

 

[MSOrange]

Sources: Bills unlikely to trade McCoy to Eagles