Buffalo Bills 2018

[NateW]

I at least admire your consistency in defending the decisions by the front office and head coach that have led to this being the worst offense (by several statistical measures) in modern NFL history - by a wide margin. One offseason won't even come close to solving all of the issues that they have on offense, regardless of how much cap space they have. It's one thing to have a rebuild year. It's quite another to assemble an outfit like this with a historic level of ineptitude, as has been on display through 9 games this season.

At least I am consistent. Can’t say the same for the DOOOOOMED crowd.

The doomed crowd always talks out both sides of their mouth.

You don’t think they can fix the offensive problems in one (next) offseason - when there will be significant resources available for them to do so. But at the same time you want accountability for the problems not being fixed in one (last) offseason in which there were limited resources.

The Bills did not have enough salary cap space to add a lot of FAs in the 2018 offseason. They also lost a lot of draft capital by trading up to take a chance on a potential franchise QB that EVERYONE agreed was desperately necessary. With these limited resources management chose to shore up a defense that was gashed on the ground and through the air multiple times in 2017 because of a lack of talent on the defensive line and at MLB. They attempted to bring on John Brown at WR but he did not want to accept the offer. Again - it takes two to tango. And with some of these FA’s you have to overpay - especially if you’re telling them they have to play with a rookie QB. 2018 offseason resources made it impossible for them to overpay.

———————

Before - when we had not taken a chance on a franchise QB we had traded up to take Sammy, overpaid Clay, overpaid Shady, overpaid Glenn everyone was proclaiming it stupid to have all these shiny things without the franchise QB. “That’s no way to build a franchise!!!” people cried out in Western NY.

So the new management does everything in their power (including trade away some shiny things) to make sure the franchise is in position to get their pick of the QB litter in the 2018 draft - they were tanking! And by some miracle (good coaching of course had nothing to do with it) the team goes 9-7 and makes the playoffs for the first time in 17 years. So the draft pick that was supposed to be in the Top 5 is now in the 20’s. So the franchise decides we still need to stick with the long term plan so they trade away more shiny things (Glenn, Tyrod) to be absolutely sure that this team can get the QB that, again, everyone wholeheartedly agrees must be brought in. Then on draft day they cash in that draft capital to get the QB.

Now the doomed crowd finds the other side of their mouths again — “Well jeez how can you take this rookie QB and then send him out there with no talent surrounding him, that’s unacceptable! I demand a accountability!”

My point in all of this is that the gnashing of teeth this season is premature and a bit silly. It was clear from the time Sammy got traded that is was a “tear down/rebuild.”

Is it fair to criticize? Absolutely! They blew it with their evaluation of Peterman and it has put egg on their face to be sure. But any reasonable person would watch the maturation from 2017 preseason/regular season into 2018 training camp/preseason and think that this kid could be a respectable game manager type QB. His preseason was not just solid - it was awesome, he lit it up. So management said it, let’s take the dead money hit on McCarron this season and turn our 3rd string QB into a 5th round pick! It was a reasonable move at the time that unfortunately has totally and completely backfired.

I think they also may have underestimated gravity of the unexpected departures of Incognito and Wood. They did attempt to add some inexpensive pieces to the line and wr core and none panned out. Best part is that they didn’t overpay an unworthy player out of desperation. We aren’t pot committed to anyone on the offensive side of the ball aside from Allen, Dawkins, and Zay.

Let’s wait til 2019 (when the plan has been fully implemented) to bash Beane and McDermott. If things are this way next year I’ll bring my gold plated pitchfork to the riot.

 

[Melancer46]

Long post

To be clear since I think I've been grouped into the negative crowd, I don't really have an issue with the Bills deciding to blow things up and rebuild over the course of a few years.

My main issues are:

1. I think Beane's track record so far is pretty bad.
2. I think McDermott has a very, very long ways to go in terms of gameday decisions as a coach/I'm not sure he realizes how big of a problem it is. It's not impossible for this to improve with time; for example, Doug Pederson was sort of a laughing stock his first year as a coach and is now regarded as one of the top coaches in the league. But it's a serious problem with McDermott right now.

I know that McBeane were hired with this basic idea in mind; that they'd blow things up and take a few years to rebuild, and I think that was probably the wise move. But based on how things have gone so far, I worry that we'll let them spend all this draft capital and cap space and then they'll be fired by the end of the year because people will realize that they spent the cap space on the wrong guys/drafted the wrong guys and then a new regime will be brought in and we'll spend another 2 or 3 years trying to undo what McBeane did.

It would probably be unfair to fire them at this point for doing exactly what they were hired to do, but at the same time, there's significant reason to think they might not be the best people to have spending all of these assets that we've acquired.

If Beane plays his cards right, I think next year's team could be very good defensively and at least below average offensively if not better, but his moves to this point don't leave me feeling especially hopeful about that.

Likewise, McDermott's gameday decisions/struggles to make adjustments will probably always make me nervous until he changes, but that can be overcome if Beane does a good job of adding talent this offseason.

Edit: I say all of that to essentially agree with your conclusion. We probably have to just wait and see how things look a year from now. The problem is that if things don't look good in a year, it will probably be too late (unless Beane does a good job of negotiating deals that we can get out of in the event that they're bad) and then we'll be in the same position again in 2 or 3 years.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

The team got lucky last year to make playoffs for sure, they have blown this thing up and the offense is way worse than anyone can imagine but at this point I think they will get 2 more years after 2018 as long as 19 isn't a disaster. I still think these guys can do it, if Allen proves to at least to be competent next year and year after. They need so much help on offense it will take 2 years to get back to at least competent.

I probably have more faith in both Beane and McDermott than most but losing 2 solid pieces to the O line was brutal and the lack of cap space has been crippling. they have cap room and draft picks so we shall see.

It's Buffalo what else are you going to do, I say give them 4 years

 

[BuffOrange]

Nate this incredible world you live in where absolutely everything is binary. Do you work in politics?
Nobody is "demanding accountability" for the offense not being good or even average. There is good, average, bad and then eight layers of crap before getting to the Bills all-time horror show. I will say there is a reverse spinal tap point where it doesn't matter much how far below '1' the lever gets for the purposes of next year; so we got that going for us.
But man, try and grow up a little. I read "doooomed" and facsimiles of the same posts from people I guess thought they were clever on TBD in 2005. "Give JP time, idiots". Rinse/repeat same formula, never worry about being right because there's never a scorecard on any of this stuff.

 

[NateW]

Nate this incredible world you live in where absolutely everything is binary. Do you work in politics?
Nobody is "demanding accountability" for the offense not being good or even average. There is good, average, bad and then eight layers of crap before getting to the Bills all-time horror show. I will say there is a reverse spinal tap point where it doesn't matter much how far below '1' the lever gets for the purposes of next year; so we got that going for us.
But man, try and grow up a little. I read "doooomed" and facsimiles of the same posts from people I guess thought they were clever on TBD in 2005. "Give JP time, idiots". Rinse/repeat same formula, never worry about being right because there's never a scorecard on any of this stuff.

Your incoherency is appreciated.

Thanks!

 

[NateW]

To be clear since I think I've been grouped into the negative crowd, I don't really have an issue with the Bills deciding to blow things up and rebuild over the course of a few years.

My main issues are:

1. I think Beane's track record so far is pretty bad.
2. I think McDermott has a very, very long ways to go in terms of gameday decisions as a coach/I'm not sure he realizes how big of a problem it is. It's not impossible for this to improve with time; for example, Doug Pederson was sort of a laughing stock his first year as a coach and is now regarded as one of the top coaches in the league. But it's a serious problem with McDermott right now.

I know that McBeane were hired with this basic idea in mind; that they'd blow things up and take a few years to rebuild, and I think that was probably the wise move. But based on how things have gone so far, I worry that we'll let them spend all this draft capital and cap space and then they'll be fired by the end of the year because people will realize that they spent the cap space on the wrong guys/drafted the wrong guys and then a new regime will be brought in and we'll spend another 2 or 3 years trying to undo what McBeane did.

It would probably be unfair to fire them at this point for doing exactly what they were hired to do, but at the same time, there's significant reason to think they might not be the best people to have spending all of these assets that we've acquired.

If Beane plays his cards right, I think next year's team could be very good defensively and at least below average offensively if not better, but his moves to this point don't leave me feeling especially hopeful about that.

Likewise, McDermott's gameday decisions/struggles to make adjustments will probably always make me nervous until he changes, but that can be overcome if Beane does a good job of adding talent this offseason.

Edit: I say all of that to essentially agree with your conclusion. We probably have to just wait and see how things look a year from now. The problem is that if things don't look good in a year, it will probably be too late (unless Beane does a good job of negotiating deals that we can get out of in the event that they're bad) and then we'll be in the same position again in 2 or 3 years.

I share your concerns about McDermott on game day. I believe he will grow and become more aggressive when he has talent on offense that can be trusted. If he gets the talent and doesn’t evolve into a coach that is more willing to take calculated risks I agree that it may become his downfall.

I have full confidence in Beane & McDermott to make use of our resources this coming offseason. In two offseasons they have brought in:

Josh Allen
Tre White
Tremaine Edmunds
Micah Hyde
Jordan Poyer
Star Lotulelei
Dion Dawkins
Matt Milano
Trent Murphy
Taron Johnson
Harrison Phillips
Stephen Hauschka
Zay Jones
Jordan Phillips
Wyatt Teller

That’s 15 players that I am VERY bullish on. A few still have a LONG way to go but that’s a nice young core group of guys to build around going forward. I think that’s an impressive showing for being on the job two years. And some of these guys are 4th and 5th round picks!

I think Beane and McDermott can identify talent, we have to give them time to fully stock the cupboard. They actually have a plan. For once we have a management staff and coaching staff on the same page. Let’s allow it to play out.

 

[NineOneSeven]

I share your concerns about McDermott on game day. I believe he will grow and become more aggressive when he has talent on offense that can be trusted. If he gets the talent and doesn’t evolve into a coach that is more willing to take calculated risks I agree that it may become his downfall.

I have full confidence in Beane & McDermott to make use of our resources this coming offseason. In two offseasons they have brought in:

Josh Allen
Tre White
Tremaine Edmunds
Micah Hyde
Jordan Poyer
Star Lotulelei
Dion Dawkins
Matt Milano
Trent Murphy
Taron Johnson
Harrison Phillips
Stephen Hauschka
Zay Jones
Jordan Phillips
Wyatt Teller

That’s 15 players that I am VERY bullish on. A few still have a LONG way to go but that’s a nice young core group of guys to build around going forward. I think that’s an impressive showing for being on the job two years. And some of these guys are 4th and 5th round picks!

I think Beane and McDermott can identify talent, we have to give them time to fully stock the cupboard. They actually have a plan. For once we have a management staff and coaching staff on the same page. Let’s allow it to play out.

I will give them some time.

My issue is similar to the game day management concerns echoed above. I listen to a lot of Bills radio these days and a lot of the current issues have already been stated ad nauseam so need to repeat those (QB play, lack of weapons, etc).

However... I strongly question the overall vision for how to win games. It seems, based on his background and some of the words he's used (like blue collar, physicality, clock control), McDermott wants a style very similar to what plagued Syracuse during the Shafer years- try to win via defense and just do enough on offense. I understand college is much different than the pros, and that strategy is more likely to succeed in the pros given complexity of defense, but it stills seems to be going in the opposite direction that all of football is going in 2018. It's one thing to win games 17-13, 16-10. The key word is win. I'm not directly comparing him to Shafer, but the strategy of how he wants to win seems quite similar, and that is a little bit concerning, especially when we see these teams like LAR, NO, NE, KC [which I also understand is the current class of the NFL]. Syracuse now is what those teams are now, and Syracuse a few years back is what Buffalo is playing towards.

At the end of the day... just bring in some offensive players please.

 

[Melancer46]

I share your concerns about McDermott on game day. I believe he will grow and become more aggressive when he has talent on offense that can be trusted. If he gets the talent and doesn’t evolve into a coach that is more willing to take calculated risks I agree that it may become his downfall.

I have full confidence in Beane & McDermott to make use of our resources this coming offseason. In two offseasons they have brought in:

Josh Allen
Tre White
Tremaine Edmunds
Micah Hyde
Jordan Poyer
Star Lotulelei
Dion Dawkins
Matt Milano
Trent Murphy
Taron Johnson
Harrison Phillips
Stephen Hauschka
Zay Jones
Jordan Phillips
Wyatt Teller

That’s 15 players that I am VERY bullish on. A few still have a LONG way to go but that’s a nice young core group of guys to build around going forward. I think that’s an impressive showing for being on the job two years. And some of these guys are 4th and 5th round picks!

I think Beane and McDermott can identify talent, we have to give them time to fully stock the cupboard. They actually have a plan. For once we have a management staff and coaching staff on the same page. Let’s allow it to play out.

I more or less agree with you; we just don't agree on all the players that we're bullish on, but that's alright. They haven't really done anything back-breaking yet even if I think they could have used the cap space and draft picks better last offseason.

 

[NateW]

I will give them some time.

My issue is similar to the game day management concerns echoed above. I listen to a lot of Bills radio these days and a lot of the current issues have already been stated ad nauseam so need to repeat those (QB play, lack of weapons, etc).

However... I strongly question the overall vision for how to win games. It seems, based on his background and some of the words he's used (like blue collar, physicality, clock control), McDermott wants a style very similar to what plagued Syracuse during the Shafer years- try to win via defense and just do enough on offense. I understand college is much different than the pros, and that strategy is more likely to succeed in the pros given complexity of defense, but it stills seems to be going in the opposite direction that all of football is going in 2018. It's one thing to win games 17-13, 16-10. The key word is win. I'm not directly comparing him to Shafer, but the strategy of how he wants to win seems quite similar, and that is a little bit concerning, especially when we see these teams like LAR, NO, NE, KC [which I also understand is the current class of the NFL]. Syracuse now is what those teams are now, and Syracuse a few years back is what Buffalo is playing towards.

At the end of the day... just bring in some offensive players please.

The two moments that really stick out to me are the punt late in the Indianapolis snow game last year and the Pats game this year - the punt on a 4th and 3 around the 50 yard line down 6 with about 8 mins to go.

The question is will the decision be different when you have Josh Allen at QB - two or three years into his career - he is surrounded with WRs that can get separation and has an offensive line that can physically impose its will on their opponent??

I imagine the play call will be different.

 

[Melancer46]

The two moments that really stick out to me are the punt late in the Indianapolis snow game last year and the Pats game this year - the punt on a 4th and 3 around the 50 yard line down 6 with about 8 mins to go.

The question is will the decision be different when you have Josh Allen at QB - two or three years into his career - he is surrounded with WRs that can get separation and has an offensive line that can physically impose its will on their opponent??

I imagine the play call will be different.

Those, and another that angered me a ton:

I can't remember who they were playing, but it was 4th and short somewhere around the 45-50 yard line, and McDermott kept the offense on the field. He got the other team to call a timeout (maybe the Texans?). Then he sends the offense out onto the field again so everyone's like "well he already got Houston to burn a timeout, so it looks like he's finally realized you should actually go for it in this situation!"

Nope. I think Buffalo ended up burning a timeout of their own before punting. There was absolutely no reason to send the offense back out on the field again if the plan all along was to punt.

 

[NateW]

Those, and another that angered me a ton:

I can't remember who they were playing, but it was 4th and short somewhere around the 45-50 yard line, and McDermott kept the offense on the field. He got the other team to call a timeout (maybe the Texans?). Then he sends the offense out onto the field again so everyone's like "well he already got Houston to burn a timeout, so it looks like he's finally realized you should actually go for it in this situation!"

Nope. I think Buffalo ended up burning a timeout of their own before punting. There was absolutely no reason to send the offense back out on the field again if the plan all along was to punt.

That does ring a bell

 

[dan7800]

I've had Bills season tickets for 15 years. There is nothing about this team/management that says that they are on the correct path. Perhaps I am overly pessimistic, but I just don't see it.

 

[longislandcuse]

I've had Bills season tickets for 15 years. There is nothing about this team/management that says that they are on the correct path. Perhaps I am overly pessimistic, but I just don't see it.

Do you like our Defense?

Do you think Allen can be a franchise QB?

If you answer yes to both of those, then you should be ok waiting one more offseason to see what they do in FA and the Draft.

 

[shandeezy7]

Do you like our Defense?

Do you think Allen can be a franchise QB?

If you answer yes to both of those, then you should be ok waiting one more offseason to see what they do in FA and the Draft.

I know you weren't posing this question to me, but I'll answer.

1.) The defense: yes, mostly. They have been mostly good this year with some real head scratching lapses. Trending in the right direction though, obviously. Hopefully we are able to retain a lot of these young guys after their rookie deals. We haven't been great at doing that over the past decade.
2.) Allen - I'm not really sure. Limited sample size, but the negatives that were in his scouting report coming out of college have materialized in the NFL as well. His accuracy issues are really unsettling, especially in an era when 65% completion percentage is about the minimum required for good NFL QB's these days.

 

[dan7800]

Do you like our Defense?

Do you think Allen can be a franchise QB?

If you answer yes to both of those, then you should be ok waiting one more offseason to see what they do in FA and the Draft.

Our defense is good for the most part, but we've had good defenses in year's past.

Could Allen be a franchise QB - Perhaps. It's very early, but except for his high draft pick I haven't seen anything to make me believe that he will be.

 

[Toga]

Allen at practice. Limited.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

At this point, I am willing to give any coach/ GM/ staff enough time to see it through. Not sure these guys will get it done but can't say they won't at this point. In 2 years one should be able to know pretty much for sure. Have to give Allen that much time too. It's just the reality of where they are. Like it or not.

If they can put an average offense out there at some point, they should be able to compete for the playoffs. I just don't know if Daboll is innovative enough, his track record would say he isn't but again he has nothing to work with at this point. McDermott may need to keep tweaking here as well.

Like to see Allen play the last 4-5 games but I would also like a top 1-3 pick which I think will happen.

 

[NineOneSeven]

At this point, I am willing to give any coach/ GM/ staff enough time to see it through. Not sure these guys will get it done but can't say they won't at this point. In 2 years one should be able to know pretty much for sure. Have to give Allen that much time too. It's just the reality of where they are. Like it or not.

If they can put an average offense out there at some point, they should be able to compete for the playoffs. I just don't know if Daboll is innovative enough, his track record would say he isn't but again he has nothing to work with at this point. McDermott may need to keep tweaking here as well.

Like to see Allen play the last 4-5 games but I would also like a top 1-3 pick which I think will happen.

If we are top 3 pick do we trade down? Or try to draft top OL.

 

[Alsacs]

If we are top 3 pick do we trade down? Or try to draft top OL.

Unless your Cleveland trading down always makes sense.
The draft is all about reducing risk. More picks equals less chance to screw up.
Cleveland is the obvious exception because of dumb management.
Buffalo traded down for Mahomes and did pretty well.

 

[Melancer46]

If we are top 3 pick do we trade down? Or try to draft top OL.

Trading down would be ideal; I'm just not sure Buffalo will get great offers, especially if Herbert returns to school. If he returns, I don't foresee anyone trading up for any of the other QBs. The top 3-5 players are all defensive linemen, but this draft is so unbelievably stacked with them that I think most teams will be content to sit back whereever they are and take the linemen that slide to them.

I know it will anger a lot of fans, but if I'm in Beane's shoes and I'm not able to get a good offer to trade down, I'd probably go defense in the first round; whoever is left between Bosa, Oliver, and Quinnen Williams would be a gigantic get for the Bills D-Line.

I don't really see an offensive player worth taking unless Buffalo ends up picking closer to 10th rather than top 3, and even around #10 I still might go defense.

 

[Melancer46]

By my count, Buffalo has now scouted 14 WR/TEs that have been mentioned as potential 1st/2nd round picks, so that's cool. How high you SHOULD take them is very much up for debate, but they're at least doing a ton of leg work on adding some weapons this year thank god.

WRs:
N'Keal Harry
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Hollywood Brown
Anthony Johnson
Riley Ridley
AJ Brown
DK Metcalf
Demarkus Lodge
Deebo Samuel
Bryan Edwards

TEs:
Noah Fant
Albert Okwuegbunam
Kaden Smith
Irv Smith

 

[MSOrange]

Matt Barkley under center tomorrow vs the Jets

 

[SmilinBob]

The Bills QB situation reminds me of the Cubs when Harry Carey died and they had guests sing the 7th inning stretch....."This weeks guest QB will be...".

 

[NateW]

Was there any doubt Benjamin was going to drop that ball in the end zone?

Looks like Peterman’s days are numbered now. Barkley looks competent- which is a nice change of pace.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Was there any doubt Benjamin was going to drop that ball in the end zone?

Looks like Peterman’s days are numbered now. Barkley looks competent- which is a nice change of pace.

This McKenzie has looked good, wr unit actually looks competent. Would love to see us lay it on the jets.