Buffalo Bills 2020 Thread

[STEVEHOLT]

Yeah at a ML of +275 I would hedge a fair amount. Don't be greedy.

let me give you the basic situation

if i let it ride, and the bills win, i will win a total of 80 units

if i let it ride and lose, i will win 0 units

if i hedge with a ML bet of 20 units to the pats...and pats win will end up with 60 units...
if i hedge with a ML bet of 20 to the pats..and pats lose..i end up with 60 units (80 for the bills win minus the 20 hedge)

so im guaranteeing 60 units with the hedge..but giving up on the 80 units..\

something else to think about..i can live in game hedge as well. Bill B always kicks if he wins the toss. Im assuming the bills will receive if they get the toss..this means the bills likely to end up with the first possession..if they score, the ML will go up even higher..and i could hedge then at a +300 level.

 

[Trueblue25]

Never look forward to a January game in Buffalo for my phins. Hoping the Tua who played against the Chiefs shows up if he must start. Confident our defense will perform as best they can against Josh

 

[bpo57]

let me give you the basic situation

if i let it ride, and the bills win, i will win a total of 80 units

if i let it ride and lose, i will win 0 units

if i hedge with a ML bet of 20 units to the pats...and pats win will end up with 60 units...
if i hedge with a ML bet of 20 to the pats..and pats lose..i end up with 60 units (80 for the bills win minus the 20 hedge)

so im guaranteeing 60 units with the hedge..but giving up on the 80 units..\

something else to think about..i can live in game hedge as well. Bill B always kicks if he wins the toss. Im assuming the bills will receive if they get the toss..this means the bills likely to end up with the first possession..if they score, the ML will go up even higher..and i could hedge then at a +300 level.

Yeah I like that in-game hedge early as it seems likely you'll have early opportunities after a big play or two by Buffalo. I still might do a token ML play on NE to start the game just in case. I'm laying the seven and may take an alternate line up to Buffalo -13 as I think the Bills can whip them but u never know. In any event it's a good position to be in.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

Yeah I like that in-game hedge early as it seems likely you'll have early opportunities after a big play or two by Buffalo. I still might do a token ML play on NE to start the game just in case. I'm laying the seven and may take an alternate line up to Buffalo -13 as I think the Bills can whip them but u never know. In any event it's a good position to be in.

I bit the bullet and hedged ... I mean the ML is up to +300... so I hedged enough such that I win about half as much if the bills lose rather than if they win.. it will more than cover the cost of the original bet ..

Why not hedge more ? I don’t want to be in a situation where the pats beating the bills it isn’t quite painful

 

[bpo57]

I bit the bullet and hedged ... I mean the ML is up to +300... so I hedged enough such that I win about half as much if the bills lose rather than if they win.. it will more than cover the cost of the original bet ..

Why not hedge more ? I don’t want to be in a situation where the pats beating the bills it isn’t quite painful

I hear ya. I had a case earlier this year where I had a SNF game - think it was where I just needed the Ravens to beat NE for a big payday on a teaser and I didn't hedge. Dumb move. Good luck!

 

[NineOneSeven]

Brown activated but on covid list

 

[Toga]

Brown activated but on covid list

With Kumerow gone wonder if they call up Duke.
Davis Webb is elevated but not activated. Not sure what that means.

 

[JeremyCuse]

With Kumerow gone wonder if they call up Duke.
Davis Webb is elevated but not activated. Not sure what that means.

Ya in retrospect we maybe should have waited until this weekend to release Kumerow once we knew for sure Brown was good to go. The main issue is that with Roberts pretty much a non factor as an actual WR your one injury away from being in potential major trouble. I know we have a couple of WR guys on the PS but appears were not gonna elevate anyone.

 

[shandeezy7]

Ya in retrospect we maybe should have waited until this weekend to release Kumerow once we knew for sure Brown was good to go. The main issue is that with Roberts pretty much a non factor as an actual WR your one injury away from being in potential major trouble. I know we have a couple of WR guys on the PS but appears were not gonna elevate anyone.

Brown was good to go, which is why Kumerow was released. Yeldon just happened to test positive the next day, which landed Brown on the Covid list due to contact tracing. Just unfortunate timing.

 

[Toga]

Brown was good to go, which is why Kumerow was released. Yeldon just happened to test positive the next day, which landed Brown on the Covid list due to contact tracing. Just unfortunate timing.

I believe Cuomo just set the state standard at 10 days, down from 14.

 

[shandeezy7]

I believe Cuomo just set the state standard at 10 days, down from 14.

Right but Yeldon just tested positive yesterday, so the quarantine period just started.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Brown was good to go, which is why Kumerow was released. Yeldon just happened to test positive the next day, which landed Brown on the Covid list due to contact tracing. Just unfortunate timing.

Oh I am aware of that, my only point was with COVID and everything it might have been best to wait until the very last second in case say someone else had an issue or even Brown. It's not a big deal in the grand scheme for sure but more unfortunate as you noted and in my mind a little bit of a self-inflicted mistake.

 

[NateW]

That kickoff was weird... didn’t look like Bass really ran up into it...

 

[NineOneSeven]

3rd and 2 inside the 5 and we just ran it with Singletary to the outside? Why?

 

[JeremyCuse]

3rd and 2 inside the 5 and we just ran it with Singletary to the outside? Why?

Not a fan of that call, either let Allen throw or let him run a draw or something there. Even Moss on an inside run would have made more sense.

 

[pattycuse]

3rd and 2 inside the 5 and we just ran it with Singletary to the outside? Why?

Yeah a lot of edge runs on that drive, a bit odd, obviously without knowing the game plan. But not particularly inspiring.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Fake punt!

 

[capeorange]

Nice

 

[NineOneSeven]

Well Jones will never get a pass again

 

[JeremyCuse]

Well Jones will never get a pass again

Singletary was the guy for that

 

[NineOneSeven]

Knox with his typical negative play

 

[pattycuse]

And... There's Dawson Knox

 

[JeremyCuse]

We have to get another TE in the draft or start having Kroft activated as the second TE, Knox is a drop machine.

 

[NineOneSeven]

We have to get another TE in the draft or start having Kroft activated as the second TE, Knox is a drop machine.

Such an enigma. He’s talented when he gets some space but too many negative plays. Has to smarten up.

 

[shandeezy7]

Knox has worse hands than this guy. Someone get him some stick em.