Buffalo Bills 2023 Thread

[shandeezy7]

It's a Dino level reply.

Imagine saying to your boss "hey you know that thing that was working really well? I got bored with it and decided to test out a bunch of different things for no good reason to the detriment of our overall performance."

Couple that with Josh Allen listening to Adam's Song by Blink 182 or whatever in order to make himself depressed or something before games and there's a reason why our offense has scored 20 or less in almost half the games this year.

 

[samspann1]

I don't know that any defense is even remotely decent when they're missing half of the week 1 starters. Think our brains and expectations are out of whack with the current situation. Have legit bums off the street out there right now and gave up 7 less than the 49ers did to them.

Saw this post on TBD today, thought that it was pretty interesting:

Complete list of games this season where a defense allowed 24+ points and forced 0 turnovers in a win:

Week 1:
Dolphins 36 Chargers 34

Week 2:
Giants 31 Cardinals 28
Titans 27 Chargers 24 (OT)
Falcons 25 Packers 24

Week 3:
Seahawks 37 Panthers 27

Week 4:
Eagles 34 Commanders 31

6 times out of 136 games and not once since week 4

 

[chugg21]

Saw this post on TBD today, thought that it was pretty interesting:

Complete list of games this season where a defense allowed 24+ points and forced 0 turnovers in a win:

Week 1:
Dolphins 36 Chargers 34

Week 2:
Giants 31 Cardinals 28
Titans 27 Chargers 24 (OT)
Falcons 25 Packers 24

Week 3:
Seahawks 37 Panthers 27

Week 4:
Eagles 34 Commanders 31

6 times out of 136 games and not once since week 4

I'm perplexed by basically everything with this team. 2nd in the league in point differential. Offense was 2nd in both ppg and ypg last year and is 5th this year in both but we all seem to want an OC change. Can't figure out if it's just our expectations out of whack or what because their output and talent level are pretty aligned at 5th in ppg but those full half dry spells sure drive me nuts.

 

[Melancer46]

I'm perplexed by basically everything with this team. 2nd in the league in point differential. Offense was 2nd in both ppg and ypg last year and is 5th this year in both but we all seem to want an OC change. Can't figure out if it's just our expectations out of whack or what because their output and talent level are pretty aligned at 5th in ppg but those full half dry spells sure drive me nuts.

I think part of it is we are hyper focused on the Bills (which obviously makes sense) and not realizing offenses in general are struggling league wide this season. There aren’t many (any?) teams that are scoring a ton every week.

Having said that, I am definitely frustrated with the offense lol.

 

[shandeezy7]

I'm perplexed by basically everything with this team. 2nd in the league in point differential. Offense was 2nd in both ppg and ypg last year and is 5th this year in both but we all seem to want an OC change. Can't figure out if it's just our expectations out of whack or what because their output and talent level are pretty aligned at 5th in ppg but those full half dry spells sure drive me nuts.

I think a big part of it is that it seems as though those numbers get heavily inflated in a few lopsided performances and there is zero consistency week to week with the offense. Ike I said before, they’ve scored 20 points or less in 4 of their 9 games. A top tier offense does not do that.

 

[Toga]

He's going to get $20m/year and we already have 1 of those. Having 2 of them would be a rough way to spend.

I always think of WRs as a position that lends itself more to drafting someone who could be WR 2 or maybe 3 at a cost far less than FA.

 

[BuffOrange]

I'm perplexed by basically everything with this team. 2nd in the league in point differential. Offense was 2nd in both ppg and ypg last year and is 5th this year in both but we all seem to want an OC change. Can't figure out if it's just our expectations out of whack or what because their output and talent level are pretty aligned at 5th in ppg but those full half dry spells sure drive me nuts.

Ditto as someone who generally believes in all the advanced nerd stuff, it all looks good still. Kevin Cole has us #1, Allen's EPA is great and Eric Eager likes him for mvp, we don't punt that much, etc..I don't get it.
It definitely does not match the eye test. The '21 team that was 7-6 everyone brings up was pretty clearly unlucky with two clunker games. This team has two good games and vs a weaker schedule, even Washington wasn't great offensively.

 

[Orangeman]

I'm perplexed by basically everything with this team. 2nd in the league in point differential. Offense was 2nd in both ppg and ypg last year and is 5th this year in both but we all seem to want an OC change. Can't figure out if it's just our expectations out of whack or what because their output and talent level are pretty aligned at 5th in ppg but those full half dry spells sure drive me nuts.

josh Allen TOS have cost them two games

defense injuries

 

[NineOneSeven]

I think part of it is we are hyper focused on the Bills (which obviously makes sense) and not realizing offenses in general are struggling league wide this season. There aren’t many (any?) teams that are scoring a ton every week.

Having said that, I am definitely frustrated with the offense lol.

Many teams also have back up players all over on offense. We don’t. We are very healthy on that side.

 

[Melancer46]

Many teams also have back up players all over on offense. We don’t. We are very healthy on that side.

This is true, though Allen is starting but does not appear to be healthy and he's fairly important to everything we do.

The metrics around him are so fascinating this season; I think it's really shown the limitations of stuff like PFF grades and QBR. I don't know what the people that chart all the passes would say, but it feels like Allen's deep ball has been very off this season (still completing a decent amount of them, but generally with very inaccurate passes that cost us yards), but in the short and medium game, it feels like he's been as accurate as ever. It's really the pre-snap stuff where I think he's been maybe the worst of his career since his rookie season; he's missing so many protections, basic reads, etc. that don't show up in things like PFF, QBR, etc. but have likely taken a lot of points off the board for us.

Feels like even with Dorsey's inconsistent playcalling, we're leaving a lot of meat on the bone. A lot of it goes back to Allen, but some goes to poorly timed drops and penalties and stuff too.

 

[syrBossHogg]

It's simple folks

1. The offense isn't getting enough explosive plays to get into scoring range (see image below, something that Dorsey needs to fix.)
2. At times when they do get into scoring range there's execution errors (Kincaid fumble vs Cincy, Bass missed kicks vs NYG and NE.)
3. Defense badly misses Milano, D. Jones, Tre, fully healthy Von, Rousseau playing with a bad foot, etc. They're not generating sacks or turnovers or even 3 and outs to help give the offense shorter fields to score points.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/-SMoeKXIAAnFvr?format=png&name=900x900

 

[chugg21]

I think a big part of it is that it seems as though those numbers get heavily inflated in a few lopsided performances and there is zero consistency week to week with the offense. Ike I said before, they’ve scored 20 points or less in 4 of their 9 games. A top tier offense does not do that.

Miami has scored 20 or less 3 times. KC has 4 times with additional games of 21 and 23. 49ers have 3 weeks in a row. Those are the top tier offenses aren't they so it seems like everyone does. Eagles only outlier.

 

[shandeezy7]

Miami has scored 20 or less 3 times. KC has 4 times with additional games of 21 and 23. 49ers have 3 weeks in a row. Those are the top tier offenses aren't they so it seems like everyone does. Eagles only outlier.

I still stand by the lack of offensive consistency and our overall metrics being skewed by some absolutely monster performances on offense.

 

[NineOneSeven]

It's simple folks

1. The offense isn't getting enough explosive plays to get into scoring range (see image below, something that Dorsey needs to fix.)
2. At times when they do get into scoring range there's execution errors (Kincaid fumble vs Cincy, Bass missed kicks vs NYG and NE.)
3. Defense badly misses Milano, D. Jones, Tre, fully healthy Von, Rousseau playing with a bad foot, etc. They're not generating sacks or turnovers or even 3 and outs to help give the offense shorter fields to score points.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/-SMoeKXIAAnFvr?format=png&name=900x900

The problem is we've seen games where JA is only looking for those big plays vs taking the short/intermediate stuff and is the reason drives stall. Thinking back to the Jets game. Not to mention, teams are specifically taking away big play chances by having such a deep safety. It's a tough balance. Need big plays, but can't force big plays. Even last game JA was missing short passes that could have been 10-15 yard gains.

 

[chugg21]

I still stand by the lack of offensive consistency and our overall metrics being skewed by some absolutely monster performances on offense.

If you can read this, it's pretty interesting and now even more perplexed then previously.

Is the Bills offense really a problem? The battle of perception vs. reality

Should Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey actually be blamed for the unease around the team's status?

theathletic.com

 

[shandeezy7]

If you can read this, it's pretty interesting and now even more perplexed then previously.

Is the Bills offense really a problem? The battle of perception vs. reality

Should Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey actually be blamed for the unease around the team's status?

theathletic.com

Interesting read. What a frustrating season so far. And unfortunately, the defense likely isn’t going to get any better, unless we can get Jones and especially Milano back. It might be too late by then, though.

 

[Toga]

QB 1 says shoulder much improved.

 

[syrBossHogg]

The problem is we've seen games where JA is only looking for those big plays vs taking the short/intermediate stuff and is the reason drives stall. Thinking back to the Jets game. Not to mention, teams are specifically taking away big play chances by having such a deep safety. It's a tough balance. Need big plays, but can't force big plays. Even last game JA was missing short passes that could have been 10-15 yard gains.

His decision making has been questionable at times, yes. Whether that's a Dorsey or Allen thing, I'm not 100% sure.

And yes there are more two high safety coverages this year, but the best playcallers can manipulate defenses enough to give them the looks they want for scoring plays.

 

[shandeezy7]

His decision making has been questionable at times, yes. Whether that's a Dorsey or Allen thing, I'm not 100% sure.

And yes there are more two high safety coverages this year, but the best playcallers can manipulate defenses enough to give them the looks they want for scoring plays.

Perhaps we should utilize our playmaker RB who averages nearly 5 ypc if teams want to run two high safeties against us?

 

[BuffOrange]

Interesting read. What a frustrating season so far. And unfortunately, the defense likely isn’t going to get any better, unless we can get Jones and especially Milano back. It might be too late by then, though.

Milano can't be replaced but on paper, it seems like Douglas & Joseph ought to be reasonable enough band-aids for the other two so that the defense is at least league average, not 30th or whatever they rank the last month.
All the other nicks piling on top are a death blow. Can't be losing Bernard & Benford while Rosseau, Oliver & Floyd are on half speed. JFC it's ridiculous.

 

[upperdeck]

losing to the jets and NE when they really had no reason to lose is the difference between 7-2 and 5-4. All the issues are still there but those games were easily there for the taking.. the Jax/Cini losses you can live with and they both were winnable as well down the stretch.

 

[Orangeman]

losing to the jets and NE when they really had no reason to lose is the difference between 7-2 and 5-4. All the issues are still there but those games were easily there for the taking.. the Jax/Cini losses you can live with and they both were winnable as well down the stretch.

Right, that's what I mean, weren't those two losses basically on Josh Allen turnovers?

 

[samspann1]

Right, that's what I mean, weren't those two losses basically on Josh Allen turnovers?

IMO, the NE loss is squarely on the defense. You can’t let a scrub QB like Mac Jones hang 29 points you. The defense sucked against NYJ too.

 

[JeremyCuse]

IMO, the NE loss is squarely on the defense. You can’t let a scrub QB like Mac Jones hang 29 points you. The defense sucked against NYJ too.

That last drive was absolutely absurd

 

[STEVEHOLT]

At Philly is a definite loss. At KC and at Miami are likely losses. Chargers game is definitely the most winnable of the bunch and there should be a sizable Bills fan contingent there. 8 p.m. kick isn't ideal, as it's 11 p.m. our time, but I suppose it's a loser's mentality to be worried about that.

There are no nfl games that start 8 pm pacific.