Can Brandon average 20 ppg next year?

[OttoMets]

Very few players average 20 under JB. Seriously, who has in the last 25 years? Melo, Wallace, Owens, Moten...anyone else? DC never did, did he?

So no. Our leading scorer will be at most around 15 PPG next year, once again.

And it's never a guard (Flynn had 17.4 once; Sherm had 18.2). The few times someone's scored 20 a game, it's been a wing (gotta include Warrick and Shumpert on that list).

Sure, Triche can average 20. Especially with Mookie gone; each guard is going to play a lot more minutes than anyone played in 2012. And if he ever took it upon himself to drive regularly, he could get ten a game from the line.

But he probably won't. Not only do we have a few options with whom Triche has to share the ball, but it'll be tough for a guy who's scored 1.28 points per shot for his career to put up those numbers.

 

[Orangezoo]

every ounce of me says no.. due to the teams balance.. but bt does have the ability to score in bunches when he does.. so its feasible. i think he will fall into the 14-17 range.. but most of that will be in small stretches and i dont see him as the first or second offensive option late in games...does he demand to be "the guy" or does he fall back and let mcw, dc2, js and cj run the show while occasionally stepping up? i hope he demands it because he can be lethal with that pull up j/ floater

 

[OttoMets]

Don't a guard has ever averaged 20 ppg under JB.

Here are the highest scoring averages for a season I could find for guards in the Boeheim Era...didn't take a lot of time, might have missed someone.

Sherman 88-89 18.2
Flynn 08-09: 17.4
Pearl 85-86: 17.3
Sherman 86-87 17.3
Gmac 03-04: 17.2
Devendorf 07-08: 17.0
Autry 93-94: 16.7
Sherman 87-88: 16.1
Gmac 05-06: 16.0
DeShaun Williams 01-02: 15.9

I don't think it is likely a guard will ever average 20 ppg playing in the context of the JB offense. It is too balanced and too forward centric for this to happen.

Would have to be really unusual circumstances...a special, really talented guard and a really weak supporting cast for this to happen.

I think BT will end up about 15 ppg.

Good call. If Flynn couldn't do it with a green light on a couple somewhat limited teams (playing an uptempo ball for long stretches), it probably won't happen.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

every ounce of me says no.. due to the teams balance.. but bt does have the ability to score in bunches when he does.. so its feasible. i think he will fall into the 14-17 range.. but most of that will be in small stretches and i dont see him as the first or second offensive option late in games...does he demand to be "the guy" or does he fall back and let mcw, dc2, js and cj run the show while occasionally stepping up? i hope he demands it because he can be lethal with that pull up j/ floater

Agreed and I think JB will expect him to fill the leadership role this year.

If he does average 20+ per game and we are winning like we have the last few years, I'd expect he'd be in the consideration for BE POY. That's a lot of ifs, but it's possible. Like the rest of the rational posters are saying though, JB's system doesn't really allow for that kind of unbalanced scoring.

 

[Eric15]

Sure, Triche can average 20.

In my opinion, if Triche is averaging that many points per game, we're probably in the midst of a mediocre 8-10 loss season.

 

[OttoMets]

I have a man-crush on Bilas, but in this instance, he's being lazy and just had to fill a blurb about SU. Triche averaging 20 ppg simply isn't realistic on any level. 13-14 ppg is probably his ceiling.

Yep, he'd realize that if he gave it a moment's thought and considered Boeheim's history.

It's a combination of Bilas tossing something out there without a thought and his being the founding member of the "Triche is the most talented player on Syracuse but he doesn't know it" train in 2010-2011.

 

[AlaskaSU]

I'd rather not see him score 20 pts/game. When he is on he scores in bursts but he does not force things if he is off. As long as we have plenty of scorers his strategy is good for the team. He can contribute even when not scoring. I expect him to press his offense a bit more this year but still not force too many shots in order to try to get out of a slump. its not his style. He will continue to have good and bad games in terms of scoring. He is not a shooter without a conscience like Waiters, Devo, GMac etc.

 

[OttoMets]

In my opinion, if Triche is averaging that many points per game, we're probably in the midst of a mediocre 8-10 loss season.

With guys injured, I'd guess.

 

[orange2win]

You should also note that in the last two years, nobody on the SU team has averaged more than 15 ppg. The last player to beat the 15 ppg mark was Wes Johnson.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I think it's more likely MCW averages 20 a game actually.

Neither one is going to do it though.

 

[moqui]

Not even close.

seconded

 

[moqui]

given the following

• the depth of talent on the team
• the unselfishness of all 3 SU squads that Triche has been on
• BT's own high IQ
• BT's disdain for shot hunting

I think it is a better bet that BT never tops 20 in a single game this year than that he'll average 20 or even close to it

 

[SoBristol]

...To have one person who scores 20 you have to have several players that dont score because there is a limit of how many points a team can put up on average - and that limit is right around 80.

For example, when Melo averaged over 20 for us, Forth was in the rotation who didn't score, McNeil was in the rotation who didnt score, even Pace really didn't score much during the regular season (he picked it up during the tournament). And Edelin missed a good chunk of the year. So there was a lot of room for Melo to get his points.

This year's team has 7 scorers (hopefully) out of an 8 man rotation. ...

Good points. Of course, Melo was a scoring machine, who could score in many ways. Defenses had to put their best guy on him, and also look to double him. And, he could still score inside or outside.

BT is a nice player, who can occasionally go on streaks. He will likely lift his average from 9.4 into the 12-14 range as he gets more minutes. But he is one of the scoring options (with James, CJ, MCW). Not the guy (like Melo) who is clearly the #1 scoring option, regardless of what defenses might do.

 

[Knicks411]

given the following

• the depth of talent on the team
• the unselfishness of all 3 SU squads that Triche has been on
• BT's own high IQ
• BT's disdain for shot hunting

I think it is a better bet that BT never tops 20 in a single game this year than that he'll average 20 or even close to it

I looked it up; Triche has 6 20 point plus games in his entire career.

 

[Ghost]

given the following

• the depth of talent on the team
• the unselfishness of all 3 SU squads that Triche has been on
• BT's own high IQ
• BT's disdain for shot hunting

I think it is a better bet that BT never tops 20 in a single game this year than that he'll average 20 or even close to it

If I had to make a bet, I would go with him never scoring 20 as well. That's far more likely than him averaging 20 (neither being very likely at all).

 

[orangefan13]

there are three main kind of scorers.
1. beat you off the dribble- isolation
2. shoot the lights out (I don't think thats brandons game).
3. post up.

Brandon isn't any of those those three. Most of the other guys who have had 20 were.
Brandon had 8, 11, and 9.4 ppg his last three seasons.

I think 14-15 would be the relistic range. If Dion wasn't there he would have had around 13 last year. If he gets 16-18 I would be really really happy.

IMO 18.5-20 is a real stretch. Even if he finds the isolation to beat his man teams will start doubling him. With him being a perimeter guy some of those points will be passes and assists instead when he reaches the lane or mid post.

 

[TinyManInside]

No. I can't believe this is even a discussion.

 

[Scotch]

I think it's a stretch, though I think he and CJ are our best players.

Discuss.

I think our best two players will be CJ and MCW.

 

[billsin01]

I think our best two players will be CJ and MCW.

Me too.

 

[billsin01]

I think 14-15 would be the relistic range. If Dion wasn't there he would have had around 13 last year. If he gets 16-18 I would be really really happy.

I actually think 14-15 is the ceiling and he's more likely around 12.

 

[ORANGEsPHK]

Me too.

While I'll agree that this could be a likely scenario, what this team needs is for Southerland and Triche to be more consistent with Rak, DC, Cooney and others getting hot every now and then.

 

[SBU72]

there are three main kind of scorers.
1. beat you off the dribble- isolation
2. shoot the lights out (I don't think thats brandons game).
3. post up.

Brandon isn't any of those those three. Most of the other guys who have had 20 were.
Brandon had 8, 11, and 9.4 ppg his last three seasons.

I think 14-15 would be the relistic range. If Dion wasn't there he would have had around 13 last year. If he gets 16-18 I would be really really happy.

IMO 18.5-20 is a real stretch. Even if he finds the isolation to beat his man teams will start doubling him. With him being a perimeter guy some of those points will be passes and assists instead when he reaches the lane or mid post.

I was just thinking that the only way Bradon averages 20 a game is if he consistently hits 45% or better from 3 pt range. And think abou t this, at 50% to TAKE probably at least 8 of those shots a game. That gets him to 12, he still has to get like 4 more pts from drives/breakaways and 4 from the foul line. That's a lot. To do all this he has to be on the court probably 36 minutes a game. With Cooney and MCW around that is not liekly.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

I think our best two players will be CJ and MCW.

So what does that mean? I guess it depends on what role MCW plays. If he is the point guard I can see Brandon having the ability to score more. If Brandon runs the point his scoring will be less.

I don't see CJ being a focus on offense at any point in his career. He's the prototypical garbage man, cleaning up everyone else's messes and getting his little ten footers whenever he chooses.

 

[OttoMets]

So what does that mean? I guess it depends on what role MCW plays. If he is the point guard I can see Brandon having the ability to score more. If Brandon runs the point his scoring will be less.

I don't see CJ being a focus on offense at any point in his career. He's the prototypical garbage man, cleaning up everyone else's messes and getting his little ten footers whenever he chooses.

Yeah, C.J.'s a good player, but I don't see this being his year. It's a struggle to go from garbage man and fifth or sixth option to starting wing who's been publicly handed the keys to the offense.

By his senior year, C.J. will hopefully be a well-rounded player and a high achiever. This year, he'll have some really great games and more than a couple 3-14 nights with a mess of turnovers. To be expected of someone who's the focal point of the opposing defense for the first time ever.

This won't be a team with a star. Scoring will be balanced, more in line with the 2000 team. Rakeem's going to be very good this year. I wouldn't be surprised if South becomes a 15/game guy, but it also wouldn't be shocking if he's the same player he was last year. Should see even production out of the guards; hopefully we get more produciton from the five than we have the past two years (not a high bar to surpass).

 

[Oakland]

I think it's a stretch, though I think he and CJ are our best players.

Discuss.

In addition to what was said above, to average 20 one needs to be able to create his own shot. BT can do this fairly well getting to the rim, but not with his outside shot which is a stationary set shot that he makes at a decent, but not great, % when left open. If he actually started the season dominating the offense and scoring 20, I think opponents would focus on his outside shot and significantly limit his scoring.