Can Brandon play himself into the draft ?

[reedny]

One dimension he will be able to add is: shot attempts, and being one of the main focal points of the offense. He has the tools, he has the talent. He's been a complimentary scorer up until this point, and will have to shoulder more of the offensive load as a senior.

This can be a two-edged sword, as we saw with G-Mac once he became the focus of opposing defenses. I'm concerned this may happen to BT without another significant perimeter threat (CJ doesn't fit the bill there).

But the nice thing about BT is that he can slash effectively (at least in college), so he'll get a little respect (along with a little room). And my hope is the same as yours -- that with his cool demeanor and steady defense, he can become an offensive focal point (the staff's been waiting 3 years for this). If his scoring numbers expand and he starts getting the defensive attention this will bring, maybe he can demonstrate some playmaking ability to accent his blue collar game.

That'll make him look more like Beal than DJO when next year's draft rolls around.

 

[Knicks411]

One dimension he will be able to add is: shot attempts, and being one of the main focal points of the offense. He has the tools, he has the talent. He's been a complimentary scorer up until this point, and will have to shoulder more of the offensive load as a senior.

You know what's funny, and I only noticed this a few days ago, Triche was one of the more frequent shooters on the team. Dion took 27.6% of our shots when he was on the floor, which lead the team, but Brandon was essentially tied for second with Southerland.

 

[reedny]

You know what's funny, and I only noticed this a few days ago, Triche was one of the more frequent shooters on the team. Dion took 27.6% of our shots when he was on the floor, which lead the team, but Brandon was essentially tied for second with Southerland.

Seems like KJ took most of the shots (and played the most minutes), but I agree, BT was right behind DW. Another factor is that towards the end of the year, JB was taking BT out at the end of the game in favor of Scoop (playmaking). So that diminished BT's perception as an offensive leader.

32

JOSEPH, Kris 37-37 1192 32.2 164-390 . 4 2 1 51-148 . 3 4 5 117-157 . 7 4 5 56 118 174 4.7 62 0 56 55 23 50 496 13.4
03

WAITERS, Dion 37-0 891 24.1 170-357 . 4 7 6 41-113 . 3 6 3 86-118 . 7 2 9 18 67 85 2.3 69 1 92 48 12 67 467 12.6
20

TRICHE, Brandon 37-37 834 22.5 121-287 . 4 2 2 42-120 . 3 5 0 62-80 . 7 7 5 35 56 91 2.5 51 0 95 51 4 37 346 9.4
11

JARDINE, Scoop 37-37 934 25.2 126-266 . 4 7 4 39-103 . 3 7 9 38-69 . 5 5 1 15 72 87 2.4 39 1 181 85 4 50 329 8.9
05

FAIR, C.J. 37-9 977 26.4 115-248 . 4 6 4 6-24 . 2 5 0 78-105 . 7 4 3 74 125 199 5.4 54 0 34 29 18 40 314 8.5
51

MELO, Fab 30-30 763 25.4 98-173 . 5 6 6 0-0 . 0 0 0 38-60 . 6 3 3 80 95 175 5.8 85 3 21 43 88 15 234 7.8

 

[RF2044]

You know what's funny, and I only noticed this a few days ago, Triche was one of the more frequent shooters on the team. Dion took 27.6% of our shots when he was on the floor, which lead the team, but Brandon was essentially tied for second with Southerland.

Shot frequency by minutes played is going to be a bit misleading because we played 10 guys and lots of different lineup combinations. Triche was the starting 2G on a team that was completely perimeter focused; his job was to shoot. Interestingly, there were plenty of posters who felt like he didn't shoot ENOUGH, and expressed that opinion consistently. [not to be outdone, we also had posters who also felt the same way about Dion. And Scoop. Go figure. ]

Also need to consider that we had a lot of scoring options on the floor at any time last year. But experienced veterans like Joseph and Scoop aren't on next year's team, neither is Waiters. So, Triche will be relied upon to be one of the main scorers--and possibly to have offensive half court sets run THROUGH him. He'll either step up and average 13-17 while challenging for all conference honors, or he'll shoot a poor percentage. But he's going to be given every opportunity as a senior / four year starter to be one of the anchors of our offense.

I'm not interested in debating those who don't believe that Brandon has the chops to be a primary scorer--they could be right, and I certaily could be wrong--time will tell. But this feels qualitatively like the same type of debate we frequently have about players who've been complimentary role players ascending into bigger roles and being able to shoulder a bigger workload of responsibilities. DNic...Andy...Scoop...and now Brandon. The vast majority of those situations resulted in the player stepping up and getting the job done as seniors--I'm predicting that Triche will follow a similar pattern.

 

[Knicks411]

I'm not interested in debating those who don't believe that Brandon has the chops to be a primary scorer--they could be right, and I certaily could be wrong--time will tell. But this feels qualitatively like the same type of debate we frequently have about players who've been complimentary role players ascending into bigger roles and being able to shoulder a bigger workload of responsibilities. DNic...Andy...Scoop...and now Brandon

I don't think it's going to be quite like that, which is what i was trying to say. He took a lot of shots last year already. (Another funny stat, Andy took a higher% of shots when he was on the floor in 2009 vs 2010, the number of possessions he used was basically identical both seasons). Scoop used more possessions than anyone on the team in 2010.

nichols went from taking 22.5% of our shots when on the court as a Junior to 28.5% as a senior. That's a huge jump. I will be very surprised if Brandon experiences that.

Shot frequency by minutes played is going to be a bit misleading because we played 10 guys and lots of different lineup combinations.

Not sure I totally follow.

Triche had a shot% at 23.7 last season. I would be willing to bet that number doesn't go up much at all next year. The number that clearly will go up is that he played 56% of our minutes last year, I bet that number is closer to 75% or 80% this year.

Brandon averaged 9 points per game in 21 minutes, if you extrapolate that out to 30 minutes per game that's 13 points right there.

Anyway, like I said, my main point is that Brandon did shoot a lot last year. Every year he's shot more, but I don't think he's going to shoot a lot more next year. We've been very b alanced offensively the last 5 years or so. (Ever since Nichols graduated, pretty much)

Btw, I think Brandon will be fine next year. He was relatively efficient last year on a pretty high possession load. He'll get more minutes, shoot more on a raw basis, score more points, and there will be plenty of people who expect him to do more, but i think he'll be a perfectly solid player for us next year

 

[tbonezone]

a 4 year jb designated starter. remind me again where was forth picked ?
can he step it up? well there certainly will be a lot less offensive weaponry to defer to.
will he step it up? i hope so. brandon has a ton of talent . what he seems to lack is moxy.
so yes this could be either his breakout season or else a ticket to budapest.

 

[MikeSU02]

Personally, I think he has all the tools physically. I think the key is between his ears. I'm not sure that he can be assertive enough on the floor without charging and losing control.

He's built like a linebacker and had some impressive dunks over people in the last couple seasons. His 3 point shooting form is very good. He seems like he could either explode this year - or else be just the same. Hard to tell with Brandon because he's a quiet kid, and maybe doesn't have that swagger.

In any event, we know that he will be a very good player on this team next year. Will he be the leader ? Will he be the go-to guy? Only time will tell. Let's have your vote.

I would never say never. I would say it is a long shot, however.

As a fourth year starter, BT is a known quantity to NBA GMs. If he had NBA-level talent, he would be gone by now. Whatever your view, seniors are only seniors on high major D1 teams because they aren't good enough for the NBA for the most part.

With that said, maybe he can produce enough or get good enough at one or two things to propel him to be a second round pick.

As some of the posters alluded to in this thread, the magnification of his importance being one of three guards and being a fourth year starter will give him the stage to shine, but it will also be a long fall from grace if he can't handle the pressure.

 

[SoBristol]

. . .

But the nice thing about BT is that he can slash all day (at least in college), so he'll get a little respect (along with a little room). And my hope is the same as yours -- that with his cool demeanor and steady defense, he can start taking over on offense (the staff's been waiting 3 years for this). . . .

This is where some differ on BT. On occasion he can get by his defender, with a mid-range pull-up or a floater or take it to the hoop. But not "slash all day" -- if you mean he can be a consistent threat to take it into the lane as Dion or Scoop could do. His three point attempts usually came from spot-up opportunities off an assist, not because he made moves with his dribble. He rarely shot coming off a screen as Rautins would do and GMAC years ago. BT's offensive arsenal is OK for a 3rd option guy who can get you 12 points per game, and occasionally more if the defense gives him shots. It is OK -- he is a valuable part of the team -- but it isn't what the NBA is looking for.

 

[MyMeloMyMan]

When BT does get into the lane, he seems to give himself an incredible degree of difficulty on both shots and passes by jumping before he is sure what he's going to do, often times sideways/off balance. He is still so indecisive with the ball on his forays to the hoop.

 

[realorange]

Brandon just has to quit thinking about what he's going to do and just do it. He has the talent, he just needs to let it come out naturally.

 

[reedny]

This is where some differ on BT. On occasion he can get by his defender, with a mid-range pull-up or a floater or take it to the hoop. But not "slash all day" -- if you mean he can be a consistent threat to take it into the lane as Dion or Scoop could do. His three point attempts usually came from spot-up opportunities off an assist, not because he made moves with his dribble. He rarely shot coming off a screen as Rautins would do and GMAC years ago. BT's offensive arsenal is OK for a 3rd option guy who can get you 12 points per game, and occasionally more if the defense gives him shots. It is OK -- he is a valuable part of the team -- but it isn't what the NBA is looking for.

I agree with this... from the outside he was more of a catch and shoot guy -- his dribble game was all mid range or inside. At any rate, as RF and Knicks have posted, the question next year will be not the volume of his shots/per minute, but whether he's featured in the offense and gets the call in clutch/end-game situations.

Where you and I disagree is about his ability to penetrate. When we faced very tough M2M defenses this past year, BT's was often the only one that could get by his guy and make a play. He's much stronger than most defenders he faces, at least at the college level.

 

[billsin01]

This is where some differ on BT. On occasion he can get by his defender, with a mid-range pull-up or a floater or take it to the hoop. But not "slash all day" -- if you mean he can be a consistent threat to take it into the lane as Dion or Scoop could do. His three point attempts usually came from spot-up opportunities off an assist, not because he made moves with his dribble. He rarely shot coming off a screen as Rautins would do and GMAC years ago. BT's offensive arsenal is OK for a 3rd option guy who can get you 12 points per game, and occasionally more if the defense gives him shots. It is OK -- he is a valuable part of the team -- but it isn't what the NBA is looking for.

Yeah, I think the nice answer to this question is that BT is a nice player who will contribute significantly and play for pay overseas for a long time. He does a lot of things decently but doesn't have that one undeniable tool that takes most guys to the highest level. You can make it as an all-around guy but that's if you're a guy like Tayshawn Prince or Shane Battier who can defend well and create matchup problems on the other end from time to time.

The not-so-nice, but I think still relatively true answer is this: He's more likely to lose minutes to some combination of Cooney and potentially JS than he is to have a monster breakout season that either lands him in the draft or puts him in the same class as DNic. I like him, I'm glad he came here, I don't pretend to be a talent scout but I just think his most likely comp is much more Kueth Duany than Dion or even Andy Rautins (much slower release, not even as quick, IMO, and nowhere near the passer).

Like the kid, think he'll be a key piece of the puzzle and end up with a surprisingly good college career, but I"m thoroughly shocked that 75% of people responding here think he's an NBA draftee.

 

[Ghost]

Yeah, I think the nice answer to this question is that BT is a nice player who will contribute significantly and play for pay overseas for a long time. He does a lot of things decently but doesn't have that one undeniable tool that takes most guys to the highest level. You can make it as an all-around guy but that's if you're a guy like Tayshawn Prince or Shane Battier who can defend well and create matchup problems on the other end from time to time.

The not-so-nice, but I think still relatively true answer is this: He's more likely to lose minutes to some combination of Cooney and potentially JS than he is to have a monster breakout season that either lands him in the draft or puts him in the same class as DNic. I like him, I'm glad he came here, I don't pretend to be a talent scout but I just think his most likely comp is much more Kueth Duany than Dion or even Andy Rautins (much slower release, not even as quick, IMO, and nowhere near the passer).

Like the kid, think he'll be a key piece of the puzzle and end up with a surprisingly good college career, but I"m thoroughly shocked that 75% of people responding here think he's an NBA draftee.

I pretty much agree with this. Some of the names being thrown around as comparisons differ a bit in that they were trapped on the bench behind others and once given a shot had a good year followed by a great year. BT has been getting big minutes since day one, and we're all pretty well acquainted with what he has to offer.

Southerland seems to fit the mold of a DNic slightly more than BT. A guy that people have been clamoring about for a few years because of the "tools" and then as a Senior really takes off after getting increased run as a junior.

Triche is probably going to have a good year, and with more shots and the ball in his hands more often should improve upon his numbers, but I doubt he's going to shock us by featuring some never before seen ability. He's an okay 3 point shooter - maybe he adds the ability to shoot coming around a screen like Andy, but so far he's been shooting mostly open set three and his percentage isn't all that great.

I'm also with SoBristol on the "slash all day" comment. If someone can point out a game where he featured that ability I'd be happy to go back and watch it. He had a couple games where he featured a nice drive and pull up in the lane (@UConn comes to mind), but he's never struck me as someone who is taking opposing guards off the bounce with any kind of regularity. If he had that ability you would think it would stand out more. Hopefully he becomes a better finisher as a Senior, that could help his numbers out a lot.

Either way we should be in good shape with a 4 year starter out there, and one we can count on to be consistent. I can't really see a scenario where he gets drafted though - but I've been proven wrong there before.

 

[tbonezone]

a good freebie shooter. now get to the rim and create some friggin contact. he shot 80 fts in 37 games last year.

 

[billsin01]

Southerland seems to fit the mold of a DNic slightly more than BT. A guy that people have been clamoring about for a few years because of the "tools" and then as a Senior really takes off after getting increased run as a junior. ...

I'm also with SoBristol on the "slash all day" comment. If someone can point out a game where he featured that ability I'd be happy to go back and watch it. He had a couple games where he featured a nice drive and pull up in the lane (@UConn comes to mind), but he's never struck me as someone who is taking opposing guards off the bounce with any kind of regularity. If he had that ability you would think it would stand out more. Hopefully he becomes a better finisher as a Senior, that could help his numbers out a lot.

Yes and yes. Southerland is a really intriguing comp to DNic (though perhaps no quite at that level) or even Damone Brown. Brown was a different type of guy, obviously, but was a bit player for two years, found himself in his third year, then responded extremely well to being a go-to type as a senior grabbing nearly 3 more rpg, blocking twice as many shots, upping his scoring by ~50% while still maintaining a similar FG %. I'd be surprised if Dirty had that kind of season but I wouldn't be surprised if he played 10 more mpg, shot more consistently and improved other parts of his game.

I'd be happy to see BT slash effectively for a half let alone "all day."

 

[CaliCuse]

He will be the classic SU star senior... a very good college player who just isn't meant for the NBA.

Its a viable opinion that I don't nessarily agree with. His drive and talent will decide that outcome. I put a large amount of value on a person's heart and determination.

 

[RF2044]

\


Not sure I totally follow.

Triche had a shot% at 23.7 last season. I would be willing to bet that number doesn't go up much at all next year. The number that clearly will go up is that he played 56% of our minutes last year, I bet that number is closer to 75% or 80% this year.

Brandon averaged 9 points per game in 21 minutes, if you extrapolate that out to 30 minutes per game that's 13 points right there.

You've answered your own question. The quote you referred to wasn't as much about the percentage, it was about the amount of time he played, due to depth. Not going out on a limb here, but I think it is pretty safe to say that Brandon will play significantly more than he did last year--a "prediction" supported by the fact that as of today, we'll have three eligible scholarship guards on the roster to divide minutes between.

Just as a function of minutes [as you describe], his scoring will undoubtedly go up. If he performs to the minimum or underperforms, then his scoring will likely hover around 11-13. Ifr he plays a little better, then 15-17 is a very realistic benchmark, even with a balanced scoring team.

I'll also point out that a lot of things need to fall into place before next year's squad will be considered "balanced" offensively [a point you make below]. It certainly could happen, but that would necessitate marked improvement from incumbents like CJ and Southerland, sophomore jumps from largely unproven commodities MCW / Rak, and consistent offensive production from unknown quantities like Coleman and Cooney. Could all of those things happen? Sure--and my opinion is that many of these questions will get answered positively this upcoming season. But a more likely scenario is that our offense will rely upon Triche, CJ, and Southerland to provide the upperclassman consistency that has been such an important factor in recent years, and that we'll see intermittent flashes of brilliance from newcomers like MCW / Rak / Coleman. And if a few of the youngsters is capable of more...we're in for a big year.


Anyway, like I said, my main point is that Brandon did shoot a lot last year. Every year he's shot more, but I don't think he's going to shoot a lot more next year. We've been very b alanced offensively the last 5 years or so. (Ever since Nichols graduated, pretty much)

Whether he shoots more is not just about the percentage of shots he takes relative to teammates, it also has to do with minutes / shot opportunities. Subtle distinction, but just want to be clear.

Btw, I think Brandon will be fine next year. He was relatively efficient last year on a pretty high possession load. He'll get more minutes, shoot more on a raw basis, score more points, and there will be plenty of people who expect him to do more, but i think he'll be a perfectly solid player for us next year,

Ditto. And being perfectly solid can mean averaging single digits but providing a ton of intangibles [a la Andy's senior year], averaging 13 points per game on a balanced team that just wins [baby!] like KJ, or even playing fewer minutes and not complainign [a la Scoop] because that's what's best for the team. But given the firepower that departed, I'd be stunned if Brandon isn't a focal point of the offense.

 

[orange2win]

exactly especially in this era, if you make it to your senior year at a top program, you most likely will not be in the NBA

Sorry, but your facts are wrong.

Of the top 60 prospects listed for this year's draft, 40% are seniors.

http://www.nbadraft.net/2012mock_draft

 

[MyMeloMyMan]

Sorry, but your facts are wrong.

Of the top 60 prospects listed for this year's draft, 40% are seniors.

http://www.nbadraft.net/2012mock_draft

Yeah, but only one is listed in the top 20. In other words...how many of those seniors will make an impact at the next level? Sure, you need people to fill the 2nd round, but as we know..the odds are against you when drafted late.

 

[Knicks411]

You've answered your own question. The quote you referred to wasn't as much about the percentage, it was about the amount of time he played, due to depth. Not going out on a limb here, but I think it is pretty safe to say that Brandon will play significantly more than he did last year--a "prediction" supported by the fact that as of today, we'll have three eligible scholarship guards on the roster to divide minutes between.

Just as a function of minutes [as you describe], his scoring will undoubtedly go up. If he performs to the minimum or underperforms, then his scoring will likely hover around 11-13. Ifr he plays a little better, then 15-17 is a very realistic benchmark, even with a balanced scoring team.

Ok, I got it.

There's no question he'll play more minutes and shoot more, I was just saying that on a per minute or per possession basis, I don't think the increase will be all that much. Which I think is a good thing; I don't think he will be asked to play a much larger role in the offense, he'll just be asked to play more minutes. Adding minutes is a lot easier than adding more possessions in those minutes.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

The not-so-nice, but I think still relatively true answer is this: He's more likely to lose minutes to some combination of Cooney and potentially JS than he is to have a monster breakout season that either lands him in the draft or puts him in the same class as DNic. I like him, I'm glad he came here, I don't pretend to be a talent scout but I just think his most likely comp is much more Kueth Duany than Dion or even Andy Rautins (much slower release, not even as quick, IMO, and nowhere near the passer).

Like the kid, think he'll be a key piece of the puzzle and end up with a surprisingly good college career, but I"m thoroughly shocked that 75% of people responding here think he's an NBA draftee.

I'm going to try and not be a jerk here, but have you watched JB and the way he coaches over the years? Triche is going to lose minutes to a guy who was so good that JB redshirted him last year? Right. That will happen.

Triche lost minutes to Dion and Scoop. One guy had been here 5 years and one is going in the first round. That is not similar to anything on this years team. Except maybe Triche could be the one more similar to Scoop, and with a better looking shot. And maybe MCW can work his way up to being in the league, but he's young and hasn't felt the brunt of a full BE season yet.

Whether or not BT gets drafted is becoming the least important part of this thread. What is truly fascinating is how so many of us who invest far too much time in this team sees how he plays. Someone mentioned that Triche doesn't come off screens like GMac and Rautins. I disagree. He did that a ton last year. While his three point shot wasn't as good as those two, he also does have the ability to dribble drive (not like Devo but few did) and take it to the rim and he's much stronger than either of those guys were when he gets there so he's less likely to break down and he can finish above the rim, which none of those guys really did.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

When BT does get into the lane, he seems to give himself an incredible degree of difficulty on both shots and passes by jumping before he is sure what he's going to do, often times sideways/off balance. He is still so indecisive with the ball on his forays to the hoop.

I think you are thinking of him before this past season, because he was like that a lot in his first seasons. Which is what led to him getting so many charges. I think he did much better with this in most situations this year.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

I'm also with SoBristol on the "slash all day" comment. If someone can point out a game where he featured that ability I'd be happy to go back and watch it. He had a couple games where he featured a nice drive and pull up in the lane (@UConn comes to mind), but he's never struck me as someone who is taking opposing guards off the bounce with any kind of regularity. If he had that ability you would think it would stand out more. Hopefully he becomes a better finisher as a Senior, that could help his numbers out a lot.

The Wisconsin game in the tourney this past year. For some reason he only played 19 minutes but was 5-7 and could NOT be stopped by the Wisconsin defenders. I was not a fan of JB that game. It was inexplicable to me why Brandon spent so much time on the bench that night.

 

[reedny]

The Wisconsin game in the tourney this past year. For some reason he only played 19 minutes but was 5-7 and could NOT be stopped by the Wisconsin defenders. I was not a fan of JB that game. It was inexplicable to me why Brandon spent so much time on the bench that night.

And the Wisconsin game was typical for him. I'm the author of the "slash" comment, and I must be watching a different game than some of these guys. In the games I've seen (almost all of them), BT gets by his guy routinely. He hasn't always looked like a world class finisher or playmaker once he gets into the lane...but I don't see how you can argue that he's not an effective slasher.

 

[SoBristol]

And the Wisconsin game was typical for him. I'm the author of the "slash" comment, and I must be watching a different game than some of these guys. In the games I've seen (almost all of them), BT gets by his guy routinely. He hasn't always looked like a world class finisher or playmaker once he gets into the lane...but I don't see how you can argue that he's not an effective slasher.

He did well against Wisconsin -- maybe an above average effort, getting to the basket 2 or 3 times.
Do you agree that Flynn, Defendorf, Scoop and Dion were each more effective at dribble-driving into the lane, compared to BT? Look around the league -- BT is not among the quicker guards.
He is valuable part of our team (steady, smart, strong, works on defense, finishes well when set up on a break), but if he could slash (dribble drive) he would be averaging more than 10 points a game.