can we beat duke ? | Page 2 | Syracusefan.com

can we beat duke ?

HoustonCuse said:
Roberson has played awesome against Duke throughout his career. He's good for 13 rebounds. Lydon is due for a good game, AW3 will shoot well, need Gillon to play credibly. But honestly it will come down to stopping them. This game will probably be in the high 80's. If it is in the 60's or 70's we have a better chance.
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Jefferson is playing right? One thing about Robey is that last year Jefferson was out. He would've neutralized him at least somewhat. I think Robey played in another game against Duke when Jefferson was out or he fouled out early. Not sure. I'm just not ready to pencil in Robey for a good rebounding game this time just because it is Duke. Tatum has been rebounding well lately also.
 
I think our chances of beating Duke at home are the same as beating Georgia Tech on the road... about a 40-45% chance of winning.
 
Does a bear shi- in the woods?
 
SoBeCuse said:
Jefferson is playing right? One thing about Robey is that last year Jefferson was out. He would've neutralized him at least somewhat. I think Robey played in another game against Duke when Jefferson was out or he fouled out early. Not sure. I'm just not ready to pencil in Robey for a good rebounding game this time just because it is Duke. Tatum has been rebounding well lately also.
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Roberson's overrated as a rebounder anyway. He's good at grabbing offensive rebounds, but Lydon grabs a higher percentage of defensive boards than Robey.
 
Cusefan0307 said:
Roberson's overrated as a rebounder anyway. He's good at grabbing offensive rebounds, but Lydon grabs a higher percentage of defensive boards than Robey.
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That may be true but if we have our backs against the wall and need to get a board, I'm picking Roberson.
 
Trueblue25 said:
That may be true but if we have our backs against the wall and need to get a board, I'm picking Roberson.
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Case in point: the last rebound before the "illegal" screen. But I'm not sure what "overrated as a rebounder" means regarding Robie, or how he may be called overrated at anything. Let's just hope they remember to plug him in before the game and all will be well.
 
Cusefan0307 said:
Roberson's overrated as a rebounder anyway. He's good at grabbing offensive rebounds, but Lydon grabs a higher percentage of defensive boards than Robey.
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That's likely because Lydon spends more of his time at the 5. Tougher for Robey to get d-boards when he's out on the wing contesting a 3.
 
Gotta shoot well. No lulls. No stupid turnovers off half court lobs. No unfocused waste of possessions. We are t going to shut them down. Gotta shoot well and gotta score.
 
Cusefan0307 said:
You might be right, but I was always told the opposite when CJ used to grab more boards than Fab and Rak.
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Interesting point. I don't recall that discussion, but I believe you.
 
Cusefan0307 said:
You might be right, but I was always told the opposite when CJ used to grab more boards than Fab and Rak.
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I think that's a function of minutes more than anything else. CJ averaged far more minutes than Rak. And during CJ and Fab's sophomore year, CJ played in 7 more games. Fab had 175 rebounds in 30 games (total of 763 minutes). CJ had 199 rebounds in 37 games (977 minutes). Although CJ did have many more defensive boards. Wonder if that was because of Fab back in the middle there making teams afraid to drive, thus resulting in a lot more 3s and thus more long rebounds. Interesting.

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CuseFaninVT said:
I think that's a function of minutes more than anything else. CJ averaged far more minutes than Rak. And during CJ and Fab's sophomore year, CJ played in 7 more games. Fab had 175 rebounds in 30 games (total of 763 minutes). CJ had 199 rebounds in 37 games (977 minutes). Although CJ did have many more defensive boards. Wonder if that was because of Fab back in the middle there making teams afraid to drive, thus resulting in a lot more 3s and thus more long rebounds. Interesting.

View attachment 90007
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Wonder what it was percentage wise? I'll have to check CBB reference after the gym. I noticed Robey has a great offensive rebounding rate, but his defensive rebounding rate wasn't as good as Lydons. With Fab he tried to block everything so I could see him get out of position and that being the reason.
 
CuseFaninVT said:
I think that's a function of minutes more than anything else. CJ averaged far more minutes than Rak. And during CJ and Fab's sophomore year, CJ played in 7 more games. Fab had 175 rebounds in 30 games (total of 763 minutes). CJ had 199 rebounds in 37 games (977 minutes). Although CJ did have many more defensive boards. Wonder if that was because of Fab back in the middle there making teams afraid to drive, thus resulting in a lot more 3s and thus more long rebounds. Interesting.

View attachment 90007
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According to CBBreference, CJ grabbed a higher percentage of defensive boards than Fab in 2012 and a higher percentage than Rak in 2013. Jerami Grant grabbed a higher percentage of defensive boards than Rak in 2014. Lydon's 18% defensive rebounding rate is the highest for any Syracuse player with this many minutes since Rick Jackson in 2011 20%.
 
don't leave baye moussa keita out of the equation. he grabbed minutes and boards as well.

total rebounds adjusted Per 40 Minutes

3 C.J. Fair 7.9
5 DaJuan Coleman 8.5
8 Jerami Grant 8.3
10 Rakeem Christmas 8.8
11 Baye Moussa Keita 8.7


if you just want to talk offensive/defensive there are too many factors to consider. who else is on the floor and what's the shooting % of said grouping. are you taking 3's or layups. etc.etc. while the raw offensive rebound numbers are easy to calculate the nuances make it difficult to compare players .
[e.g.. are you following your own miss ?]
 
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underrated ? they brought in the top class in the nation ! DUKE ain't ever gonna get underdog status.
 
so what is ailing Jefferson / Allen for K to consider keeping them out of our game?
 
We arent catching duke at a good time. This team has been through alot this year and seem to be finding their stride. Yes, we play better at home but they might eat up our zone. Duke plays little defense, so i see this game in the 80's at least. Would be nice to see our NBA pick score in the double digits and pull down 12-14 boards. Go cuse!
 
Just hope they magically got their legs back, and can hit threes. No other way to win unless we finally get easy buckets. Not via dumb lobs. Also, make some layups, or just dunk the ball. TT will be big. He needs to get to half without foul trouble.
 
JLine said:
Just hope they magically got their legs back, and can hit threes. No other way to win unless we finally get easy buckets. Not via dumb lobs. Also, make some layups, or just dunk the ball. TT will be big. He needs to get to half without foul trouble.
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Which won't happen
 
We can't beat them in a shootout. They have better offensive players than us, and a system that gets them a ton better looks.
 
Newhouser said:
We can't beat them in a shootout. They have better offensive players than us, and a system that gets them a ton better looks.
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They don't play Defense.
 
Cusefan0307 said:
They don't play Defense.
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Do you think they play worse defense than we do? My hope is they are cold because they are going to get any shot they want whenever they want it.
 
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