Can't see us getting in if we lose Wednesday

[Day2]

Do we for sure? In the history of the NCAA, when have they shown themselves to be a predictable, reasonable, objective entity?

What would be the argument for keeping us out? Who would get in ahead of us and why?

 

[Day2]

Last 5 years but who's counting

You will be. That's why you insist on saying we're a bubble team, so you can act like the streak will continue into next year. Sorry to burst YOUR bubble, but the streak has been broken. Pick a different narrative.

 

[Briancuse]

What would be the argument for keeping us out? Who would get in ahead of us and why?

Losses to bc if we lose wed gt and uconn.
13 losses losing 5 of 6 to end the year.

 

[Briancuse]

You will be. That's why you insist on saying we're a bubble team, so you can act like the streak will continue into next year. Sorry to burst YOUR bubble, but the streak has been broken. Pick a different narrative.

We all are having 12 losses for a team that was supposed to be at the top of the acc is unacceptable.

 

[MSOrange]

Losses to bc if we lose wed gt and uconn.
13 losses losing 5 of 6 to end the year.

They don’t use the last 10 criteria. You are so out of your league when it comes to this stuff. It would be hilarious if it wasn’t so frustrating.

 

[Eric15]

What would be the argument for keeping us out? Who would get in ahead of us and why?

It doesn't matter what I think. I'm not on the committee, nor is jncuse or Palm or Lunardi or ESPN or CBS or bracketmatrix.

The committee is 10 human beings in a room, none of which have ever publicly commented on how they feel about our potentially 19-13 basketball team who would probably be ranked about #50 in the NET rankings if they lose on Wednesday. Do they have us as a 9 seed right now? I sure hope they do, but I have absolutely no way of knowing for sure.

If we lose on Wednesday to a crap team like Pitt or BC, I'm guessing we'll probably be a 10 (maybe even a high 11) in most projections. The idea that that isn't within the margin of error of the NCAA committee's whims is just crazy to me.

 

[Cuse'91]

What would be the argument for keeping us out? Who would get in ahead of us and why?

A scenario of lose to BC, bid stealing upsets in several conference championships; no possible way that happens?

 

[Day2]

Losses to bc if we lose wed gt and uconn.
13 losses losing 5 of 6 to end the year.

 

[Knicks411]

If they rely on this NET rating they could be swearing it for sure. Clemson was a ‘last four in’ before the game and had a better number than Cuse and they won... conference records aren’t what they used to be when 7 of the ten were against ND, BC (2), Pitt(2), Miami, Wake. Folks that’s not great.

Just for some perspective, 7 of Clemson's 9 ACC wins were against GA tech (2), Pitt (2), ND, Wake, and BC. And they were considered behind us by a lot on the bracket matrix

 

[sugrad68]

If we lose Wednesday to Pitt/BC we do NOT deserve to be in the tournament. But we will be in win or lose. So many teams with weaker resumes than SU are projected to be in there. Seton Hall. Ohio State. St. Johns. Alabama. Temple. Texas. Even Clemson if they make it.

 

[Day2]

A scenario of lose to BC, bid stealing upsets in several conference championships; no possible way that happens?

Given the number of bid stealing upsets that would need to occur, coupled with the number of bubble teams advancing deep into their conference tournaments...no possible way.

 

[Briancuse]

They don’t use the last 10 criteria. You are so out of your league when it comes to this stuff. It would be hilarious if it wasn’t so frustrating.

You don't know what the committee discusses while in that room.

 

[Day2]

Just for some perspective, 7 of Clemson's 9 ACC wins were against GA tech (2), Pitt (2), ND, Wake, and BC. And they were considered behind us by a lot on the bracket matrix

We are their second-best win.

 

[longislandcuse]

Anyone who thinks we’re a lock.. You’re telling me you won’t be nervous from the moment the buzzer sounds Wednesday to Selection Sunday with a loss?

I will.

Probably because, deep down, I don’t believe this team deserves it. The rest of CBB might just be that bad, but if I feel that way, and we’re not safely in, I’m sure there’s some on the committee that feel like I do.

Today sealed it for me. I was willing to chalk it up to playing elite teams but to have it happen to Clemson... nah, this team doesn’t deserve to make the tourney. Sounds like they will regardless, but if they get surprise cut after a loss Wednesday, it’s warranted.

 

[Day2]

If we lose Wednesday to Pitt/BC we do NOT deserve to be in the tournament. But we will be in win or lose. So many teams with weaker resumes than SU are projected to be in there. Seton Hall. Ohio State. St. Johns. Alabama. Temple. Even Clemson if they make it.

We don't deserve to be in other tournaments. But as you know, this year's tournament is the only one that matters.

 

[Day2]

Anyone who thinks we’re a lock.. You’re telling me you won’t be nervous from the moment the buzzer sounds Wednesday to Section Sunday with a loss?

I will.

Probably because, deep down, I don’t believe this team deserves it. The rest of CBB might just be that bad, but if I feel that way, and we’re not safely in, I’m sure there’s some on the committee that feel like I do.

Today sealed it for me. I was willing to chalk it up to playing elite teams but to have it happen to Clemson... nah, this team doesn’t deserve to make the tourney. Sounds like they will regardless, but if they get surprise cut, it’s warranted.

No. Not even a little bit.

I'm sure there are more on the committee who remember the win against Duke. They're also going to remember the win against Ohio State, as that was an upset win on the road against the #1 team in the very first NET rankings. The bulk of the committee will be more aware of those two games when they walk into that room than anything else we've done this year.

 

[Knicks411]

Anyone who thinks we’re a lock.. You’re telling me you won’t be nervous from the moment the buzzer sounds Wednesday to Section Sunday with a loss?

I will.

Probably because, deep down, I don’t believe this team deserves it. The rest of CBB might just be that bad, but if I feel that way, and we’re not safely in, I’m sure there’s some on the committee that feel like I do.

Today sealed it for me. I was willing to chalk it up to playing elite teams but to have it happen to Clemson... nah, this team doesn’t deserve to make the tourney. Sounds like they will regardless, but if they get surprise cut, it’s warranted.

Well, the one thing I'll say to that is i doubt the rest of the committee is watching the games like you are, as a fan. It's a much different perspective.

I wouldnt say its 100% they make it in with a loss Wed, and I'd be nervous, because I'm a fan, we aren't exactly rational.

I'd also say, it's somewhat frustrating because there are people who do a ton of work tracking the bubble and the resumes of the teams actually competing for the spots (as opposed to some gut feel of what a bubble team resume is) and then people saying "we are in/out if we do/don't do x" without having any concept or idea of what the field looks like. (General comment, not directed at you)

 

[DoctorBombay]

If we lose Wednesday to Pitt/BC we do not DESERVE to be in the tournament. But we will be in win or lose. So many teams with weaker resumes than SU are projected to be in there. Seton Hall. Ohio State. St. Johns. Alabama. Temple. Texas. Even Clemson if they make it.

Silly.
To paraphrase "William Munny" aka Clint Eastwood in "Unforgiven":
"Deserve's got nothing to do with it"!
If we get in, then we deserved it. No one's giving bids away, so somehow, someway, despite the reality-altering narratives, we must've done "something" to get in the dance, no?

 

[Eric15]

I'd also say, it's somewhat frustrating because there are people who do a ton of work tracking the bubble and the resumes of the teams actually competing for the spots (as opposed to some gut feel of what a bubble team resume is) and then people saying "we are in/out if we do/don't do x" without having any concept or idea of what the field looks like. (General comment, not directed at you)

But no matter how much tracking someone does (and I truly appreciate all the hard work people like jncuse produce), they aren’t on the committee. We are still at the mercy of a room of 10 people, who work for an inherently unpredictable organization.

It’s like a biblical scholar and an agnostic debating what happens to you after you die. At the end of the day, both are just waiting to see what happens.

 

[jncuse]

But no matter how much tracking someone does (and I truly appreciate all the hard work people like jncuse produce), they aren’t on the committee. We are still at the mercy of a room of 10 people, who work for an inherently unpredictable organization.

It’s like a biblical scholar and an agnostic debating what happens to you after you die. At the end of the day, both are just waiting to see what happens.

If the BracketMatrix had to proved to be far off over and over, I would not be relying on it. There are a few exceptions each year, but they almost always interchange the last few in / last few out. And we are about that grouping.

That being said I don't think I have ever said we were lock, just extremely close and highly unlikely to miss. If we lose Wednesday, I still think there is a 90% chance we get in. One of those reasons to miss is committee error/judgment.

 

[Day2]

But no matter how much tracking someone does (and I truly appreciate all the hard work people like jncuse produce), they aren’t on the committee. We are still at the mercy of a room of 10 people, who work for an inherently unpredictable organization.

It’s like a biblical scholar and an agnostic debating what happens to you after you die. At the end of the day, both are just waiting to see what happens.

The “committee is unpredictable” argument would carry more weight if we were closer to the cut line. You don’t see teams projected as 8/9 seeds in the NIT. The margin of error isn’t that great. Could we be a 10 or 11? Sure. But all the way out? Only if they’re throwing darts.

 

[Eric15]

You don’t see teams projected as 8/9 seeds in the NIT.

We're the third 9 seed on Bracketmatrix prior to the Clemson loss. So I agree with what you just said but I don't think it applies to our situation if we were to lose to BC/Pitt on Weds.

 

[Briancuse]

No. Not even a little bit.

I'm sure there are more on the committee who remember the win against Duke. They're also going to remember the win against Ohio State, as that was an upset win on the road against the #1 team in the very first NET rankings. The bulk of the committee will be more aware of those two games when they walk into that room than anything else we've done this year.

Ohio st has fallen apart that win loses value by the day.

 

[Knicks411]

But no matter how much tracking someone does (and I truly appreciate all the hard work people like jncuse produce), they aren’t on the committee. We are still at the mercy of a room of 10 people, who work for an inherently unpredictable organization.

It’s like a biblical scholar and an agnostic debating what happens to you after you die. At the end of the day, both are just waiting to see what happens.

Totally fair, I'm not saying they're going to be 100% right. But, A), as Jncuse says, the consensus is usually pretty damn good, and B) my frustration is not blindly relying on them, but just a blanket statement "we're in/out unless we do x" without actually looking at the teams is essentially worthless.

 

[longislandcuse]

The “committee is unpredictable” argument would carry more weight if we were closer to the cut line. You don’t see teams projected as 8/9 seeds in the NIT. The margin of error isn’t that great. Could we be a 10 or 11? Sure. But all the way out? Only if they’re throwing darts.

But we will be a projected 10/11 if we lose Wednesday.