Chad Ford's Big Board

[Roll Cuse]

Love to see him back obviously, but if he's a lottery pick, he should go. I recently watched Malachi's highlights and there is a lot of Roberson in there... I think he will be fantastic and along with McCollough, et al., we will be just fine

malachi is a hs jr though not comming til 2015

 

[Sgt Cuse]

Nbadraft.net has Grant at 12 RIGHT now. Is it worth risking injury, not improving, etc etc to jump a couple of spots? I don't think it would.

That's one site. Yes, if he absolutely knows he is in the lottery then he should probably go. But if it is questionable and he is just first round, he has a big decision to make. And I think it would be wise for him to stay, he would increase his stock.

I view Ennis as a lot harder to peg. And if just the first round is looking likely, he may have to strike while the iron is hot. IMO he would be the one susceptible to a large drop if his outside shot (and finishing) did not improve.

 

[CraigForth]

This right here, I said it in another thread, you are either an NBA player or not.

I think there is such a thing as being drafted by the wrong team, sitting on the bench and being forgotten about by the rest of the league.

 

[anomander]

Grant has been telling people he will leave. However that doesn't mean much right now. There was a player on last years team who was planning to leave at the end of the year, and he is still here.

A lot will depend on his season, but if he stays at this pace he won't be back.

 

[Full_Rebar]

I'd also add that people should look at the ages of those listed on Ford's list. 6 of the 30 listed are 20 and over, so despite what we might believe about a player being ready, the current trend is to draft on potential. If you are a lottery pick, you leave.

Someone can ask McGary in June if it was worth coming back for another year when he was a lock to go in the lottery last year. Personally I hope Grant stays as highly-ranked as he is now because it means he's having a good year for the Cuse and that means good things for this team.

 

[Eric15]

This right here, I said it in another thread, you are either an NBA player or not.

Come on, everyone knows that if Donte Greene would have stayed one more year under Boeheim's tutelage, he would be in NBA MVP contention as we speak.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Nbadraft.net has Grant at 12 RIGHT now. Is it worth risking injury, not improving, etc etc to jump a couple of spots? I don't think it would.

The draft isn't until June. Being #12 right now means about as much as a team being #1.

There is a lot of basketball to be played. Teams haven't even started their conference schedules. When you get to February, in the middle of that grind, you'll know a lot more about the character and competitiveness of these kids, and which ones are really ready to go.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Come on, everyone knows that if Donte Greene would have stayed one more year under Boeheim's tutelage, he would be in NBA MVP contention as we speak.

No, but it's not like he made a ton of money. He went lower than John Wallace did, right? Donte could have been a top 10 pick and he could have had a better chance of adapting and sticking if he was more mature.

 

[anomander]

I really can't think of many cases of where staying an extra year significantly increases your chances at a successful NBA career. if you are going to be drafted in the 1st round 1 year you aren't going to significantly increase your stature. Look at CJ Fair, he isn't doing anything for his draft stock, but he is finishing his degree. Donte Green staying an extra year wouldn't have kept him out of China, his lack of defense kept him out of the NBA. There really aren't many example of kids who stayed an extra year significantly increasing there draft stock, and prolonging their NBA career. If anything with the way the draft works now you do more harm by staying. These GM's would much rather take a 18 or 19 year old kid over a 22 year old.

 

[Dave85]

I really can't think of many cases of where staying an extra year significantly increases your chances at a successful NBA career. if you are going to be drafted in the 1st round 1 year you aren't going to significantly increase your stature. Look at CJ Fair, he isn't doing anything for his draft stock, but he is finishing his degree. Donte Green staying an extra year wouldn't have kept him out of China, his lack of defense kept him out of the NBA. There really aren't many example of kids who stayed an extra year significantly increasing there draft stock, and prolonging their NBA career. If anything with the way the draft works now you do more harm by staying. These GM's would much rather take a 18 or 19 year old kid over a 22 year old.

If CJ Fair brings the Orange its second NC you do not think his stock is going to rise in the NBA draft? Everything you say is opinion. Someone needs to take a look at the data of the first and second round draft picks in the last 4 years and see how successful seniors have been versus one-and-dones. Just because you "can't think of many cases of where staying an extra year significantly increases your chances" doesn't mean it is true. I can think of exactly one case. If player is capable of being drafted stays an extra year at least he is getting playing time continuing to improve his skills. If he gets his team to a final four, final game, or wins a NC then he may move from a second round to a first round pick. Again, the data needs to be analyzed. But just because you can't think of it doesn't mean your opinion is absolute truth.

 

[Dave85]

Nbadraft.net has Grant at 12 RIGHT now. Is it worth risking injury, not improving, etc etc to jump a couple of spots? I don't think it would.

I think if Grant goes early will he have enough skills to get any playing time in the NBA? Will he have a longer career than 2 or 3 years? I don't think so. Grant needs to develop a consistent outside jumper from NBA range. Until he has it, all he has is "potential". I think he's going to end up playing in China if he leaves after this season. NBA talent is at a much higher level. Grant as he is right now does not have enough talent to get playing time in the NBA. "DNP COACH'S DECISION" all over it!

 

[two3zone]

If CJ Fair brings the Orange its second NC you do not think his stock is going to rise in the NBA draft? Everything you say is opinion. Someone needs to take a look at the data of the first and second round draft picks in the last 4 years and see how successful seniors have been versus one-and-dones. Just because you "can't think of many cases of where staying an extra year significantly increases your chances" doesn't mean it is true. I can think of exactly one case. If player is capable of being drafted stays an extra year at least he is getting playing time continuing to improve his skills. If he gets his team to a final four, final game, or wins a NC then he may move from a second round to a first round pick. Again, the data needs to be analyzed. But just because you can't think of it doesn't mean your opinion is absolute truth.

I don't think you really need a study to figure out underclassmen are more successful than college seniors. It's quite common knowledge, just go through a couple of NBA rosters and you can see that.

And yeah, CJ is CJ. His stock is probably exactly where it was after last draft and will probably be the same at the end of the year unless he tails off quite a bit.

 

[ssbriefcase]

I don't think you really need a study to figure out underclassmen are more successful than college seniors. It's quite common knowledge, just go through a couple of NBA rosters and you can see that.

And yeah, CJ is CJ. His stock is probably exactly where it was after last draft and will probably be the same at the end of the year unless he tails off quite a bit.

C'mon. If we get to another final4, it's a no brainer CJs stock will rise. Also GMs will feel a lot more comfortable than last years draft seeing him "lead" and take on a different role and have success. There is little doubt he can rise up the board by April.

 

[two3zone]

C'mon. If we get to another final4, it's a no brainer CJs stock will rise. Also GMs will feel a lot more comfortable than last years draft seeing him "lead" and take on a different role and have success. There is little doubt he can rise up the board by April.

I could rise a little bit but there is ZERO chance he cracks top 20. I don't care if he averages 25 12 and wins the NC, it's just not going to happen. There are far too many flaws in his game for him to move up much more then he's projecting right now. Not to mention, now that the offensive focus is on him the awful turnovers are not helping his cause.

 

[Doc5120]

I don't think you really need a study to figure out underclassmen are more successful than college seniors. It's quite common knowledge, just go through a couple of NBA rosters and you can see that.

And yeah, CJ is CJ. His stock is probably exactly where it was after last draft and will probably be the same at the end of the year unless he tails off quite a bit.

I think the reason you don't see a lot of 4 yr guys on NBA rosters is because so many kids declare early. The draft is flooded with underclassmen. As much as I hate it for the college game, guys who stay 4 years these days are not seen nearly as draftable as frosh or sophs who come out early. And staying more than a few years in college generally means you're not a top flight player. Guys tend to leave much, much earlier than 15+ years ago. I think it would interesting to see the % of college Sr's who were drafted in the 1st round that stay in the league for say 3+ yrs, 5+yrs, etc vs frosh & sophs who were also drafted in the 1st round. I honestly don't know what the numbers would look like. Do teams hang onto younger players longer because they have more time to develop, are the 4 yr guys more ready to play right away? This is the type of analysis I'm interested in. Just my two cents on it all.

 

[anomander]

If CJ Fair brings the Orange its second NC you do not think his stock is going to rise in the NBA draft? Everything you say is opinion. Someone needs to take a look at the data of the first and second round draft picks in the last 4 years and see how successful seniors have been versus one-and-dones. Just because you "can't think of many cases of where staying an extra year significantly increases your chances" doesn't mean it is true. I can think of exactly one case. If player is capable of being drafted stays an extra year at least he is getting playing time continuing to improve his skills. If he gets his team to a final four, final game, or wins a NC then he may move from a second round to a first round pick. Again, the data needs to be analyzed. But just because you can't think of it doesn't mean your opinion is absolute truth.

Opinion? Look at NBA rosters. Tell me how many 3 and 4 year players are on them?

NBA GM's could care less if CJ leads us to another Final 4. They wouldn't care if he led us to 4 straight championships. The NBA drafts on how you fit into the NBA nothing more nothing less. College production is irrelevant. Look at Melo he led his team as Freshman to a national title and still got picked 3rd behind a high schooler, and a Euro bust. Why because NBA GM's thought their potential was greater. I love CJ, but if he was good enough to play minutes on an NBA roster he would have left 2 years ago

 

[TinyManInside]

If CJ Fair brings the Orange its second NC you do not think his stock is going to rise in the NBA draft?

I doubt it would change much to be honest. By now the scouts know exactly what they need to know about his game, his draft position isn't going to change much unless he grows 3 inches, becomes much more explosive, or miraculously improves his ballhandling and passing to the point where he can play full time on the perimeter. He's a very, very good college player who doesn't have the size/elite athleticism to play in the frontcourt at the next level. A run to a F4 won't change that.

 

[BostonOrange]

Opinion? Look at NBA rosters. Tell me how many 3 and 4 year players are on them?

NBA GM's could care less if CJ leads us to another Final 4. They wouldn't care if he led us to 4 straight championships. The NBA drafts on how you fit into the NBA nothing more nothing less. College production is irrelevant. Look at Melo he led his team as Freshman to a national title and still got picked 3rd behind a high schooler, and a Euro bust. Why because NBA GM's thought their potential was greater. I love CJ, but if he was good enough to play minutes on an NBA roster he would have left 2 years ago

You may be slightly overstating the case but generally I agree with you. A long tourney run could help CJ if is deadly from 3 or shows something that makes scouts rethink their opinion of him. I'm not sure Kemba Walker goes in the top 10 without Uconn's tourney run, and Steph Curry was certainly helped by his tourney performances. But yeah...he isn't going to all of the sudden become a lottery pick. Could he go from a 2d rounder to sneaking into the 1st? Possibly.

 

[ssbriefcase]

Opinion? Look at NBA rosters. Tell me how many 3 and 4 year players are on them?

NBA GM's could care less if CJ leads us to another Final 4. They wouldn't care if he led us to 4 straight championships. The NBA drafts on how you fit into the NBA nothing more nothing less. College production is irrelevant. Look at Melo he led his team as Freshman to a national title and still got picked 3rd behind a high schooler, and a Euro bust. Why because NBA GM's thought their potential was greater. I love CJ, but if he was good enough to play minutes on an NBA roster he would have left 2 years ago

There's no doubt GM's and the league draft on potential. But being and showing to be a leader and the go to guy adds to "potential", just like adding a move to your arsenal adds to it. Nobody's saying CJ will move up to the top 5, that's as bad as saying he can't improve his stock by coming back. GM's think of every little angle, and there's trends. During the time around '03 it was "in" to take euro's. And when the "high schoolers" name is Lebron James, c'mon. It's splitting hairs 1-3. There's a ton of hits and misses like always. I don't think Melo's position would've changed much even without the NC. But for a player like CJ to improve a few things or take his team far in the tourney by coming back, can bump him to at least the 1st round.

 

[moqui]

There's no doubt GM's and the league draft on potential. But being and showing to be a leader and the go to guy adds to "potential", just like adding a move to your arsenal adds to it. Nobody's saying CJ will move up to the top 5, that's as bad as saying he can't improve his stock by coming back. GM's think of every little angle, and there's trends. During the time around '03 it was "in" to take euro's. And when the "high schoolers" name is Lebron James, c'mon. It's splitting hairs 1-3. There's a ton of hits and misses like always. I don't think Melo's position would've changed much even without the NC. But for a player like CJ to improve a few things or take his team far in the tourney by coming back, can bump him to at least the 1st round.

from a management perspective, there is little incentive to draft CJ and give him guaranteed 1st round money. First, his age - he'll be 23 before the NBA season opens - of course players improve beyond the age of 23, but they have that much less shelf life left; the average age of an NBA player at the end of their career has been between 27 and 30 since the league expanded to 29 and then 30 teams.

Second, he has no obvious position at the next level. Third, while he has been a very productive college player, it is hard to see how that production translates to the next level.

All the intangibles that you mention are reasons why you take him in the 2nd round - with its non-guaranteed contracts - or invite him to play on your summer league or come to your training camp as a UFA. But smart management is not going to invest 2 guaranteed years worth of money developing a player who, odds are, will be out of the association in 4.

 

[Melancer46]

Regarding CJ, his stock will only rise if one thing happens. It isn't us winning a championship. It's him showing that he can handle the ball and beat his man off the dribble. Not a one dribble, gather, and dunk, but sizing his man up, a couple crossovers, and getting himself an open shot. He also needs to show that he can be an effective passer. He needs to show that he can defend SFs at the next level (or bulk up enough to be an undersized PF which just isn't going to happen).

He could lead us to a title and win MOP and I would feel pretty confident saying he won't be a 1st round pick if he doesn't improve at least a couple of the things mentioned above.

 

[anomander]

You may be slightly overstating the case but generally I agree with you. A long tourney run could help CJ if is deadly from 3 or shows something that makes scouts rethink their opinion of him. I'm not sure Kemba Walker goes in the top 10 without Uconn's tourney run, and Steph Curry was certainly helped by his tourney performances. But yeah...he isn't going to all of the sudden become a lottery pick. Could he go from a 2d rounder to sneaking into the 1st? Possibly.

I don't want this to turn into a knocking CJ point because I have the utmost respect for his game, character, and what he has brought to Syracuse University both on and off the court. But with that said I really don't think it's a comparison between CJ, and Kemba/Curry. Sure their performances helped bring attention they may otherwise not have received, but those were 2 almost automatic future pro's. Both do at least 1 thing at an elite level. Curry is obviously a dead eyes shooter, where Kemba has elite quickness/ball handling. Both were going to be pros regardless. As for CJ does anyone know what position he will play in the pros?

 

[ssbriefcase]

I don't want this to turn into a knocking CJ point because I have the utmost respect for his game, character, and what he has brought to Syracuse University both on and off the court. But with that said I really don't think it's a comparison between CJ, and Kemba/Curry. Sure their performances helped bring attention they may otherwise not have received, but those were 2 almost automatic future pro's. Both do at least 1 thing at an elite level. Curry is obviously a dead eyes shooter, where Kemba has elite quickness/ball handling. Both were going to be pros regardless. As for CJ does anyone know what position he will play in the pros?

I mean there's only one position he could possibly play right? The 3.

 

[two3zone]

I don't want this to turn into a knocking CJ point because I have the utmost respect for his game, character, and what he has brought to Syracuse University both on and off the court. But with that said I really don't think it's a comparison between CJ, and Kemba/Curry. Sure their performances helped bring attention they may otherwise not have received, but those were 2 almost automatic future pro's. Both do at least 1 thing at an elite level. Curry is obviously a dead eyes shooter, where Kemba has elite quickness/ball handling. Both were going to be pros regardless. As for CJ does anyone know what position he will play in the pros?

I feel the same way, I absolutely hate that CJ isn't going to be a top 5 pick and if there's anybody who's more deserving of that who's worn orange it's him. There's zero doubt in my mind that CJ will have a successful pro career (Europe) and there's zero doubt that he will also be one of the most loved players who's ever come through Syracuse. The first time I saw him play I knew he was going to be a special player (him and Dion had me extremely excited), and he has been a special player for us. I truly hope I'm wrong about CJ and he can sneak into the lottery in next years draft and carve out a 10 year career, I don't think it's in the cards for him but I'll never root for anybody harder to get to that pinky as I do with CJ. He has been the most consistent player in my eyes to ever come through here, he's never been involved with BS (arrests, academics, etc etc), he's never once in my eyes ever not given his 100% effort. I'm truly going to be upset when he's gone because is a guy I would want 12 of on my college team.

 

[CaptainJ]

I'm asking this sincerely, and am admitting to not being nearly as knowledgeable as some members on this. Are these early season big boards a lot more reliable than the early season top 25's? Obviously I know much can change, but I'm trying to gauge if they are more reliable this early because of whom is doing the grading, etc?

As for the bracketology thing yesterday, Lunardi is fortunate enough to have a schtick and it makes sense for him to milk it for all it's worth instead of waiting until it's more realistic, even with the obvious flaws of listing an impossible ACC champ. I'm just curious if these big boards are substantially more reliable than that, this early. Clearly they have to be better, but how much at this point?