College Football Playoff contenders

[orange_in_VA]

Notre Dame plays NC State this week and that is an elimination game, loser has no shot.
VT plays Miami and to me that is an elimination game as loser has no shot.
And if ND wins and Miami beats VT, they play each other in a few weeks and that is to me an elimination game.
Out of those 4 teams ND, NC State, Miami and VT only 1 team will be left standing most likely come November and then depending on what Clemson does will mean no ACC team gets in or just 1. If Clemson has only 1 loss and ND only has 1 loss they both go and someone else is getting screwed

I think VT is gonna stomp Miami, but it's hard to say for sure because Miami has played a slightly tougher schedule. I wouldn't bet money on it, but I think VT beats them and ND loses a game at some point down the stretch, possibly even this week against NCState. They have a brutal schedule left. I expect them to finish the year with another loss or two. Clemson still appears to have the best shot to win out, especially if they get Bryant back for the road game at NCState.

 

[upperdeck]

Alabama wins out
Clemson wins out
OSu/PSU win out
TCU/OK wins out
ND wins out

it never happens but still a team with a really good Resume is left out and one could be undefeated.

and that Assumes GA doesnt beat Ala in a close/OT game if you take 2 SEC teams you really have some pissed off teams, or if OSU peats PSU in the same type game

if TCU beats OK does that knock OSU

 

[Stern]

I think VT is gonna stomp Miami, but it's hard to say for sure because Miami has played a slightly tougher schedule. I wouldn't bet money on it, but I think VT beats them and ND loses a game at some point down the stretch, possibly even this week against NCState. They have a brutal schedule left. I expect them to finish the year with another loss or two. Clemson still appears to have the best shot to win out, especially if they get Bryant back for the road game at NCState.

I agree on VT beating Miami as well as ND losing once more. Either to NC State or Miami most likely.

 

[NKR1978]

Bama, psu, notre dame would make me spew

In that case...Roll Tide.

 

[Trueblue25]

Me too but lets be honest it would probably be the highest rated playoff/final 4/championship game assuming the 4th team isn't some dog team ever. Those are 3 legendary programs you have the northeast with PSU, you light up TV sets across the country with ND and especially in the mid-west. Having those 3 teams in a final four would have ESPN doing back-flips

ESPN can kick rocks. Hope PSU plays clemson and loses by 80

 

[TheCusian]

If ND wins out - the ACC is in trouble. As they will have beaten Miami and NC State. Bama is a lock as is any 1 loss Big 10 team (unfortunately). I'm afraid the doomsday scenario for the ACC is a 12-1 ND, a 12-1 Georgia, 13-0 Bama, and the Big 10 Champ. Even if Clemson won out - I'm afraid they'd be left behind.

This comes up every year. ND can't go 12-1.

The consensus seems to be an undefeated ND is in over a one loss team from a P5 conference title game winner. I don't know if that's true.

For example, this year. What if Clemson and ND both win out? Clemson will be 12-1 and ND will be 11-1. Clemson plays an extra game in the ACC conference title game. So what if ND beats Miami and NC State. So will have Clemson. I think you have to give it to the conference title game champ over ND.

Let's call it the "snobby independent tax"

EDIT: I missed that ND has a loss. Updated my post. I don't think a 1-loss ND team gets in over any P5 conference champ that has 1 loss and wins their conference title game. You could make the case that of Georgia wins out and loses to Bama in the title game - that they should get in over ND (some other teams need to lose). They won the head to head and played an extra game.

 

[TheCusian]

And it goes without saying: Screw you ND. Enjoy your independence league champ title game, or what the rest of us call "not the playoffs" ...

 

[CuseCactus]

It will be REALLY interesting if ND finishes 11-1 and Clemson 12-1. Assuming Bama, BIG 10 Champ, and Georgia in the top 3. Would the committee leave out the defending national champion?

 

[Chip]

And it goes without saying: Screw you ND. Enjoy your independence league champ title game, or what the rest of us call "not the playoffs" ...

Remember this kids. We all want a 1 loss ND team that misses the playoffs because they didn’t have the 13th game. Force the issue.

 

[Cusefan95]

And it goes without saying: Screw you ND. Enjoy your independence league champ title game, or what the rest of us call "not the playoffs" ...

I’d rather see ND lose another game and make it moot; I suspect TV draw would get a one loss ND into the playoffs in most circumstances. Which, obviously, would not be in our interests in the long run.

 

[gbo]

It will be REALLY interesting if ND finishes 11-1 and Clemson 12-1. Assuming Bama, BIG 10 Champ, and Georgia in the top 3. Would the committee leave out the defending national champion?

No. Either ND or UGA are left out in that scenario. UGA will only have a win over ND and Auburn. Not enough if you ask me.

 

[TheCusian]

No. Either ND or UGA are left out in that scenario. UGA will only have a win over ND and Auburn. Not enough if you ask me.

Agreed. I think any undefeated P5 team is in over ND. One-loss conf champs (conf champ game and regular season) are in.

ND is at a serious disadvantage. It’s delicious.

 

[orange_in_VA]

It will be REALLY interesting if ND finishes 11-1 and Clemson 12-1. Assuming Bama, BIG 10 Champ, and Georgia in the top 3. Would the committee leave out the defending national champion?

No

 

[Forza Azzurri]

No. Either ND or UGA are left out in that scenario. UGA will only have a win over ND and Auburn. Not enough if you ask me.

As it stands RIGHT NOW (emphasis on RIGHT NOW and only RIGHT NOW), ND will play 6 ranked teams this year, 2 of which are in the top ten. 3 of those six are on the road.

Clemson will play three this year, with a possible 4th in the ACC title game with only the possible 4th in the top ten. 2 of those are on the road and one at a neutral site. Right now only the ACC title game would be vs a top ten.

Georgia will play two with a possible third in SEC title game. 2 on the road and possible one at a neutral site. Two of those would be top ten.

If all three finish with one loss, I rank ND first.

Clemson and Georgia would be really close. I would call that a toss-up. Right now I would give the edge to Georgia based upon their road win over a top-ten ND team.

Whom did you play, whom did you beat and where did you beat them...

 

[orange_in_VA]

As it stands RIGHT NOW (emphasis on RIGHT NOW and only RIGHT NOW), ND will play 6 ranked teams this year, 2 of which are in the top ten. 3 of those six are on the road.

Clemson will play three this year, with a possible 4th in the ACC title game with only the possible 4th in the top ten. 2 of those are on the road and one at a neutral site. Right now only the ACC title game would be vs a top ten.

Georgia will play two with a possible third in SEC title game. 2 on the road and possible one at a neutral site. Two of those would be top ten.

If all three finish with one loss, I rank ND first.

Clemson and Georgia would be really close. I would call that a toss-up. Right now I would give the edge to Georgia based upon their road win over a top-ten ND team.

Whom did you play, whom did you beat and where did you beat them...

Clemson is currently ranked higher is SOS. Will be interesting to see after a couple more games depending on what both teams opponents do.

They also have higher FPI than ND and a higher chance to win out. Like I said earlier in this thread, I think ND loses 1 or 2 more before the end of the season anyway. They're predicted to win 10 games, Clemson is predicted to win 11.

Also interesting to note that the ACC has 11 of it's teams in the top 50 SOS in all of cfb. Strong conference that has played some tough OOC games.

 

[TheCusian]

As it stands RIGHT NOW (emphasis on RIGHT NOW and only RIGHT NOW), ND will play 6 ranked teams this year, 2 of which are in the top ten. 3 of those six are on the road.

Clemson will play three this year, with a possible 4th in the ACC title game with only the possible 4th in the top ten. 2 of those are on the road and one at a neutral site. Right now only the ACC title game would be vs a top ten.

Georgia will play two with a possible third in SEC title game. 2 on the road and possible one at a neutral site. Two of those would be top ten.

If all three finish with one loss, I rank ND first.

Clemson and Georgia would be really close. I would call that a toss-up. Right now I would give the edge to Georgia based upon their road win over a top-ten ND team.

Whom did you play, whom did you beat and where did you beat them...

... and how many games against P5 teams did you play. 12-1 > 11-1

 

[djorange1989]

ESPN can kick rocks. Hope PSU plays clemson and loses by 80

and with the score 80-0 late in the game, Dabo calls a time out before PSU tries to kick a field goal. Karma is a biotch, Franklin

 

[orange_in_VA]

and with the score 80-0 late in the game, Dabo calls a time out before PSU tries to kick a field goal. Karma is a biotch, Franklin

I would love to see Clemson smack around the BIG playoff team again.

 

[Forza Azzurri]

... and how many games against P5 teams did you play. 12-1 > 11-1

Seriously?

# of games played as a criteria?

C'mon.

Give me a break.

And don't tell me that ND situation is the same as that of the Big 12 without a championship game.

As it stands RIGHT NOW, ND is playing 6 ranked teams this year. None of the other contenders are doing that.

The championship game is important to conferences because it (generally) allows the winner to get another strong win on their resume.

When half your schedule is against ranked teams, you don't need that extra game as a resume builder.

 

[TheCusian]

Seriously?

# of games played as a criteria?

C'mon.

Give me a break.

And don't tell me that ND situation is the same as that of the Big 12 without a championship game.

As it stands RIGHT NOW, ND is playing 6 ranked teams this year. None of the other contenders are doing that.

The championship game is important to conferences because it (generally) allows the winner to get another strong win on their resume.

When half your schedule is against ranked teams, you don't need that extra game as a resume builder.

Yeah, Clemson probably wished it didn't play a typically lower P5 team in Upstate NY. Maybe they won't count it, since it's all about quality wins? Why penalize Clemson for playing one more game. I have an idea - if ND is in contention than all the other teams get to selectively erase one game's results from their record! Why penalize teams for playing an extra game that they might lose? Let them compare 12 games to 12 games.

You might be right that the quantity of top teams that they play will be enough to overcome one less game played vs a P5 team. But this isn't basketball where there's no difference between 30 games and 33 games. A game is almost 8% of a 13 game season in football.

 

[Forza Azzurri]

Clemson is currently ranked higher is SOS. Will be interesting to see after a couple more games depending on what both teams opponents do.

They also have higher FPI than ND and a higher chance to win out. Like I said earlier in this thread, I think ND loses 1 or 2 more before the end of the season anyway. They're predicted to win 10 games, Clemson is predicted to win 11.

Also interesting to note that the ACC has 11 of it's teams in the top 50 SOS in all of cfb. Strong conference that has played some tough OOC games.

That is an interesting counter-argument...I guess their SOS is higher because ND plays a team like Army?

I would think it is higher because their opponents average overall ranking is higher while ND is more top and bottom-heavy.

Be interesting to see what the committee weighs more heavily...overall SOS or the top of the schedule.

Thanks for pointing that out.

What is FPI?

Regarding winning out, that is why I put STANDS RIGHT NOW in caps...If ND loses this week, they are out...so this could all be moot on Monday...

 

[Forza Azzurri]

Yeah, Clemson probably wished it didn't play a typically lower P5 team in Upstate NY. Maybe they won't count it, since it's all about quality wins? Why penalize Clemson for playing one more game. I have an idea - if ND is in contention than all the other teams get to selectively erase one game's results from their record! Why penalize teams for playing an extra game that they might lose? Let them compare 12 games to 12 games.

You might be right that the quantity of top teams that they play will be enough to overcome one less game played vs a P5 team. But this isn't basketball where there's no difference between 30 games and 33 games. A game is almost 8% of a 13 game season in football.

Yeah, you are right. It shouldn't be about quality games or wins. What a stupid concept.

Play a schedule of:

North Carolina
Duke
Boston College
Baylor
Kansas
Illinois
Indiana
Rutgers
Oregon State
Colorado
Missouri
Arkansas
Vanderbilt

Go 13-0 and, hey, I should be in!!!

I played 13 P-5 games and won 'em all...

If you seriously think that quantity of wins > quality of wins...all I can say is I really hope the committee doesn't use your criteria for determining who is in the Final Four...

 

[gbo]

As it stands RIGHT NOW (emphasis on RIGHT NOW and only RIGHT NOW), ND will play 6 ranked teams this year, 2 of which are in the top ten. 3 of those six are on the road.

Clemson will play three this year, with a possible 4th in the ACC title game with only the possible 4th in the top ten. 2 of those are on the road and one at a neutral site. Right now only the ACC title game would be vs a top ten.

Georgia will play two with a possible third in SEC title game. 2 on the road and possible one at a neutral site. Two of those would be top ten.

If all three finish with one loss, I rank ND first.

Clemson and Georgia would be really close. I would call that a toss-up. Right now I would give the edge to Georgia based upon their road win over a top-ten ND team.

Whom did you play, whom did you beat and where did you beat them...

There is no possible way the defending national champion is being left out if Clemson, UGA, and ND all have one loss. I get what you are saying about ranked teams and what not, but a nonconference winner with only 2 ranked wins (potentially) is not getting in over a conference champion.

I know you are talking about right now but it's crazy that we are even entertaining the thought of UGA getting in over Clemson without winning their conference.

 

[Forza Azzurri]

There is no possible way the defending national champion is being left out if Clemson, UGA, and ND all have one loss. I get what you are saying about ranked teams and what not, but a nonconference winner with only 2 ranked wins (potentially) is not getting in over a conference champion.

I know you are talking about right now but it's crazy that we are even entertaining the thought of UGA getting in over Clemson without winning their conference.

I'm not so sure.

Happened last year with Ohio State. And if Georgia's only loss is to Alabama and ND runs the table, that road win will look awfully impressive...as ND will be a top five team if they run the table...and if Clemson beats a non-ranked team to win ACC, that wouldn't look nearly as impressive as if they beat a top 5 or 10 Miami team...

It is exactly what makes college football so great. Every game is so important.

By Sunday AM this could all be moot...

 

[TerryD]

And it goes without saying: Screw you ND. Enjoy your independence league champ title game, or what the rest of us call "not the playoffs" ...

ND is ok with this, if true (to be determined).

Do better next year.

Anyway, Bill Hancock was interviewed about the Committee's criteria.

When asked whether ND's lack of a conference championship hurts them, he said:

“Any team that plays a good schedule and wins, will be in the hunt for the CFP. Independent or not.”

His answers made sense to me. I think the committee has a challenging job, but they’re pretty consistent about rewarding big wins in quantity over other considerations.