Connolly ACC preview

[donniesyracuse]

SRS is going to be different as it looks at the whole season in retrospect, while the point spread was made based on Vegas opinion that week. Not bad or good - just different. Hope to get to it today. I also like including the “holy crap we won” games like the Teddy Bridgewater beat down.

I’m sure the results will be different, but I would say if the gambling public didn’t think you would win, it is not a W-T-F loss.

 

[721Comstock]

And Dungey fumbled because the refs let the play go on another 10 seconds while he wasn't moving but Pitt was trying to rip the ball out.

Requires sarcasm font for that fumble.

I don't think I've seen a college play not get blown dead for 'forward progress' for as long as that play went on. It was ridiculous.
Dungey had like 2 guys standing him up, and another 2 trying to rip the ball out, all while not having moved forward for what felt like an hour.

 

[syrBossHogg]

We had a few games that could've been disastrous under Marrone.

21-14 over URI 2011
33-30 OT over Toledo 2011 (the missed PAT game)
37-34 over Tulane 2011
37-36 over USF 2012

 

[syrBossHogg]

Requires sarcasm font for that fumble.

I don't think I've seen a college play not get blown dead for 'forward progress' for as long as that play went on. It was ridiculous.
Dungey had like 2 guys standing him up, and another 2 trying to rip the ball out, all while not having moved forward for what felt like an hour.

That loss is more annoying to me than the Clemson game from that year. We should've blown out Pitt but the football gods decided otherwise that day.

 

[TheCusian]

I’m sure the results will be different, but I would say if the gambling public didn’t think you would win, it is not a W-T-F loss.

We were ranked in 2019 and were expected to win vs Maryland. Got spanked. They then preceded to implode over the course of their season and ended up worse than us by SRS.

Perceptions can swing, sometimes wildly

 

[donniesyracuse]

We were ranked in 2019 and were expected to win vs Maryland. Got spanked. They then preceded to implode over the course of their season and ended up worse than us by SRS.

Perceptions can swing, sometimes wildly

Maryland was favored by 1.5.

 

[TheCusian]

Maryland was favored by 1.5.

Ha! I should have checked. I think they finished lower than us in SRS by the end of the year. I see what you’re saying in that a W T F loss is one where we were favored by a lot going into the game and then lose. I don’t see why we’d do that if we have a whole seasons worth of data to tell us how good a team actually is. Plus we’re just not favored that much.

I prefer the “did we lose to bottom half of CFB” metric.

 

[donniesyracuse]

I prefer the “did we lose to bottom half of CFB” metric.

Me too

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Dino needs to tweak his offense. He brought Gilbert on board lets hope he has the goods. We lack creativity on O and have not called a decent game or made in game adjustments well since Lewis left. Im not sure if Dino has the ability to out coach the other ACC coaches.

Lewis was no longer here after the 2017 season. I know your agenda wants him here through 2018 but no such luck. We went 10-3 in 2018. There were no "decent called games" in a 10-3 season? Give me more of those poorly called games then. Clown show with some of these posts. the 2018 offense was the one of the best offenses Syracuse has ever had. Replacing Dungey has been an issue for sure. 2018 must have been enough of Lewis magic fairy dust laying around I guess. Sean is a good young coach and should be really good again this year. He will most likely get a good job after this year but my god. He was an assistant under Dino for 5- 6 years I believe they aren't all that different. Dino's O lit it up in the MAC as well

 

[Chip]

Lewis was no longer here after the 2017 season. We went 10-3 in 2018. There were no "decent called games" in a 10-3 season? Give me more of those poorly called games then. Clown show with some of these posts. the 2018 offense was the one of the best offenses Syracuse has ever had. Replacing Dungey has been an issue for sure

Lewis is doing great things at Kent State, but maybe this fast paced offense just works better against MAC teams. Or maybe DeVito just can't operate consistently at that speed like Dungey could.

Regardless, it's a myth that Lewis is the reason for Dino's success. Dino had 4 successful seasons as a HC before Syracuse. Lewis was co-OC for 1 of them. And as you mentioned, wasn't here for our best season in 2018.

Maybe he's going to be a great one and will be here one day, who knows. But right now, he's a guy who seems to be doing well duplicating what his mentor taught him. That doesn't automatically transfer to P5, as we're experiencing.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Lewis is doing great things at Kent State, but maybe this fast paced offense just works better against MAC teams. Or maybe DeVito just can't operate consistently at that speed like Dungey could.

Regardless, it's a myth that Lewis is the reason for Dino's success. Dino had 4 successful seasons as a HC before Syracuse. Lewis was co-OC for 1 of them. And as you mentioned, wasn't here for our best season in 2018.

Maybe he's going to be a great one and will be here one day, who knows. But right now, he's a guy who seems to be doing well duplicating what his mentor taught him. That doesn't automatically transfer to P5, as we're experiencing.

Exactly, people just fall in love with an idea or a coach that is no longer here. Like Bees and his beloved Kevin Rodgers. ( Maybe that was actually me too)

 

[AngryOtto]

The two things that have derailed the program is Martin and cavenaugh. Both those are on Dino. Made a real bad decision hiring family instead of a proven assistant at the college level. Cavenaugh had just been let go at Nebraska and the fans seemed elated.
It seems Dino has learned from those mistakes. Hopefully he is able to turn it around this season and gets things going consistently. As he said consistently good not occasionally great. If not we will be looking for another head coach and continued rebuilding.

 

[GoSU96]

It’s not an either/or. If your evaluating a HC, your evaluating all of the data in context. I brought up those wins when they were left out when describing our W/L record.

The point isn’t cherry picking what we like or what we don’t - but seeing it in total.

Here’s your context for 2010, the team won 8 out of 13 games. The coach before won 10 out of 47 over four seasons

 

[TheCusian]

I think the drop in Offensive production in 2019 and 2020 is a result of a few things:

- Eric > Tommy in general, but especially when:
- OL coaching and injuries makes the OL horrible and Tommy isn't the threat to run or able to do it that way the same way Eric did
- The system needed a refresh. It got "figured out" to an extent and they needed to creatively tweak it. That's really hard when your OL is hot garbage

Why I have hope for 2021 (this is a much longer list than what's here, as you all know I'm hopelessly optimistic):

- New OL coach + influx of slightly better talent and experience + better injury luck
- That helps Tommy/Shrader and Gilbert to actually develop a more efficient offense
- The missing ingredient in almost all of Dino's O at Syracuse has been a running game. If that can click and be a threat? Could be something.
- WR talent. Taj is very good. I like all of the guys we have been recruiting and Queely had moments last year. We need a couple of guys to step up and I think we have them, just don't know who.

 

[baggerbob]

Lewis was no longer here after the 2017 season. I know your agenda wants him here through 2018 but no such luck. We went 10-3 in 2018. There were no "decent called games" in a 10-3 season? Give me more of those poorly called games then. Clown show with some of these posts. the 2018 offense was the one of the best offenses Syracuse has ever had. Replacing Dungey has been an issue for sure. 2018 must have been enough of Lewis magic fairy dust laying around I guess. Sean is a good young coach and should be really good again this year. He will most likely get a good job after this year but my god. He was an assistant under Dino for 6 years I believe they aren't all that different. Dino's O lit it up in the MAC as well

Dungey didn't always go with whatever they called, he improvised on occasion.

 

[TheCusian]

Here’s your context for 2010, the team won 8 out of 13 games. The coach before won 10 out of 47 over four seasons

Lol, no. You responded to my call for more context and less cherry picking with a cherry picked, low context W/L record?

Yes Doug won 8 games and won our bowl game. It was an important season. And yet, 2010 was the easiest schedule since 1960. It's both.

 

[GoSU96]

Lol, no. You responded to my call for more context and less cherry picking with a cherry picked, low context W/L record?

Yes Doug won 8 games and won our bowl game. It was an important season. And yet, 2010 was the easiest schedule since 1960. It's both.

I gave you all the context necessary

 

[TheCusian]

Shafer W vs good teams and L vs bad teams

2013	SRS	Score
Syracuse	2.81 (60th out of 125)	N/A
W vs Minnesota	5.27 (43rd out of 125)	21-17

No losses to mediocre/bad teams. Schedule rank was 41st.

2014	SRS	Score
Syracuse	-4.83 (86th out of 128)	N/A

No losses to mediocre/bad teams, no good wins. Famously close win vs Villanova. Schedule rank was 47th.

2015	SRS	Score
Syracuse	-1.51 (79th out of 128)	N/A
L vs Virginia	-0.95 (76th out of 128)	38-44

No good wins. Schedule rank was 34th.

As many said during the Shafer era, we didn't get any real signature wins (Minny was close, I guess) and didn't really lose any games to awful teams. We lost to good teams and beat bad teams, while playing a tough schedule.

 

[Ozone!]

IMO, our Football team is going to way out preform what the prognosticators believe!

 

[TheCusian]

I gave you all the context necessary

Definitively, no. If you don't include the bit about it being the easiest schedule since 1960, you've left off a key piece of info - regardless of who was the coach prior or the record prior.

I think you've proven you might have blinders on when it comes to St Dougie. No worries, I shilled for Shafer lol.

 

[TheCusian]

Speaking of Marrone, here's his W's vs good teams and L's to the bottom half of CFB:

2009	SRS	Score
Syracuse	-4.41 (85th out of 120)	N/A
W vs Rutgers	6.34 (39th out of 120)	31-13
L to Louisville	-4.00 (82nd out of 120)	9-10
L vs Minnesota	-0.10 (63rd out of 120)	20-23

That loss to Minnesota is barely a loss to a mediocre team. The Louisville loss is bad. That Rutgers win was a nice sign that he was a good HC. Schedule was ranked 40th.

2010	SRS	Score
Syracuse	1.30 (62nd out of 120)	N/A
W vs USF	2.15 (52nd out of 120)	13-9
W vs K State	4.11 (47th out of 120)	36-34

No losses to mediocre-bad teams. Couple of nice wins. Easy schedule at 85th out of 120.

2011	SRS	Score
Syracuse	-3.15 (78th out of 120)	N/A
W vs Toledo	6.84 (30th out of 120)	33-30
W vs #11 WVU	8.65 (26th out of 120)	49-23

No losses to mediocre-bad teams. Rhode Island was clooose to being a bad loss. Couple of nice wins. 48th ranked schedule.

2012	SRS	Score
Syracuse	6.27 (40th out of 120)	N/A
L vs Minnesota	-3.25 (78th out of 120)	10-17
W vs #11 Louisville	5.88 (44th out of 120)	45-26
W vs Mizzou	5.54 (45th out of 120)	31-27
W vs WVU	4.03 (54th out of 120)	38-14

The pinnacle of Doug's time here. One loss to a very mediocre golden rodent squad. 3 great wins. 55th ranked schedule.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Speaking of Marrone, here's his W's vs good teams and L's to the bottom half of CFB:

2009	SRS	Score
Syracuse	-4.41 (85th out of 120)	N/A
W vs Rutgers	6.34 (39th out of 120)	31-13
L vs Minnesota	-0.10 (63rd out of 120)	20-23

That loss to Minnesota is barely a loss to a mediocre team. That Rutgers win was a nice sign that he was a good HC. Schedule was ranked 40th.

2010	SRS	Score
Syracuse	1.30 (62nd out of 120)	N/A
W vs USF	2.15 (52nd out of 120)	13-9
W vs K State	4.11 (47th out of 120)	36-34

No losses to mediocre-bad teams. Couple of nice wins. Easy schedule at 85th out of 120.

2011	SRS	Score
Syracuse	-3.15 (78th out of 120)	N/A
W vs Toledo	6.84 (30th out of 120)	33-30
W vs #11 WVU	8.65 (26th out of 120)	49-23

No losses to mediocre-bad teams. Rhode Island was clooose to being a bad loss. Couple of nice wins. 48th ranked schedule.

2012	SRS	Score
Syracuse	6.27 (40th out of 120)	N/A
L vs Minnesota	-3.25 (78th out of 120)	10-17
W vs #11 Louisville	5.88 (44th out of 120)	45-26
W vs Mizzou	5.54 (45th out of 120)	31-27
W vs WVU	4.03 (54th out of 120)	38-14

The pinnacle of Doug's time here. One loss to a very mediocre golden rodent squad. 3 great wins. 55th ranked schedule.

Miinny was a way better squad than Louisville in 2009. SRS must be on crack.

2011 had a few other almost loss games. Tulane for one.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Speaking of Marrone, here's his W's vs good teams and L's to the bottom half of CFB:

2009	SRS	Score
Syracuse	-4.41 (85th out of 120)	N/A
W vs Rutgers	6.34 (39th out of 120)	31-13
L vs Minnesota	-0.10 (63rd out of 120)	20-23

That loss to Minnesota is barely a loss to a mediocre team. That Rutgers win was a nice sign that he was a good HC. Schedule was ranked 40th.

2010	SRS	Score
Syracuse	1.30 (62nd out of 120)	N/A
W vs USF	2.15 (52nd out of 120)	13-9
W vs K State	4.11 (47th out of 120)	36-34

No losses to mediocre-bad teams. Couple of nice wins. Easy schedule at 85th out of 120.

2011	SRS	Score
Syracuse	-3.15 (78th out of 120)	N/A
W vs Toledo	6.84 (30th out of 120)	33-30
W vs #11 WVU	8.65 (26th out of 120)	49-23

No losses to mediocre-bad teams. Rhode Island was clooose to being a bad loss. Couple of nice wins. 48th ranked schedule.

2012	SRS	Score
Syracuse	6.27 (40th out of 120)	N/A
L vs Minnesota	-3.25 (78th out of 120)	10-17
W vs #11 Louisville	5.88 (44th out of 120)	45-26
W vs Mizzou	5.54 (45th out of 120)	31-27
W vs WVU	4.03 (54th out of 120)	38-14

The pinnacle of Doug's time here. One loss to a very mediocre golden rodent squad. 3 great wins. 55th ranked schedule.

Using the Sagarin (I only like it because it includes FCS)

2009
Top 50 Ws: #41 RU
Outside Top 100 Ws: #133 Maine, #137 Akron
Outside Top 50 Ls: #64 Minny, #87 Louisville

2010
Top 50 Ws: #36 WV, #44 USF
Outside Top 100 Ws: #142 Maine, #167 Colgate, #206 Akron
Outside Top 50 Ls: #51 Louisville, #56 UConn
Honorable mention RU was #90 which means we had four 90+ Ws

2011
Top 50 Ws: #22 WV, #40 Toledo
Outside Top 100 Ws: #166 Rhode Island, #171 Tulane
Outside Top 50 Ls: #59 USF, #61 Louisville, #69 Pitt, #76 UConn
Amazing that after a 5-2 start we lost to 4 teams outside of the Top 50 and failed to make a Bowl.

2012
Top 50 Ws: #27 Louisville, #40 Mizzou, #48 WV
Outside Top 100 Ws: #129 Stony Brook
Outside Top 50 Ls: #53 RU, #68 Minny
Honorable mention #86 USF, #89 UConn, #100 Temple which means four Ws at 86+

So his two worse losses rank wise are 2009 #87 Louisville and 2011 #76 UConn. Everyone else was 51st to 69th or better known as mediocre. Twelve of his 23 regular seasons Ws were to teams rankled outside of the Top 85. So over 50% were crap teams that even GRob likely beats.

 

[TheCusian]

Miinny was a way better squad than Louisville in 2009. SRS must be on crack.

2011 had a few other almost loss games. Tulane for one.

Good catch - I missed that one. Louisville was awful and we lost to them in 2009.

Their SRS was -4.00 (82nd).

 

[rrlbees]

Exactly, people just fall in love with an idea or a coach that is no longer here. Like Bees and his beloved Kevin Rodgers. ( Maybe that was actually me too)

hey now…