Cuse -1.5 favorites vs Va Tech

[cliftonparksufan]

Opened at -1. Va Tech has only won one road game all season. Va Tech is a worse rebounding team than Syracuse. We should be able to dominate these guys, which means maybe we will win by a couple. Last home game. Let's enjoy the show.

 

[Eric15]

Alright what am I missing here? Why doesn’t Vegas see this as SU -5ish?

 

[hoopsupstate]

If we can’t cover the three tonight we will lose. We have also been terrible about keeping guards out of the lane and Mazulla might be better than anyone we’ve played. Their big guy is also very good around the basket, I’m surprised how inconsistent VT has been. When they play well, they are as good as anyone in this league. They run great actions on both sides of the court similiar to ND in the second half. We saw how well we didn’t handle it. Mazulla and Cattoor are much better than the ND guys and their bigs are better. We will have to play one of our best games tonight to win. If we don’t, it will be a double digit loss. VT has had trouble playing at the Dome and on the road. Let’s hope it continues.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Alright what am I missing here? Why doesn’t Vegas see this as SU -5ish?

We have been a good home team with a record of 13-2. However, versus the spread we are 6-9. Not very impressive.

 

[OptimusOtto]

If we can’t cover the three tonight we will lose. We have also been terrible about keeping guards out of the lane and Mazulla might be better than anyone we’ve played. Their big guy is also very good around the basket, I’m surprised how inconsistent VT has been. When they play well, they are as good as anyone in this league. They run great actions on both sides of the court similiar to ND in the second half. We saw how well we didn’t handle it. Mazulla and Cattoor are much better than the ND guys and their bigs are better. We will have to play one of our best games tonight to win. If we don’t, it will be a double digit loss. VT has had trouble playing at the Dome and on the road. Let’s hope it continues.

Cattoor is still there?! I know why they did it but man I will be happy when these Covid super seniors are finally gone.

 

[Newhouser]

Big game for Red - I think the Va Tech coach is good and they run good stuff.

 

[CuseBlood44]

That’s not a good line to see as a Cuse fan. Neither is FSU -2.5 vs NCST.

 

[690West]

Cattoor is still there?! I know why they did it but man I will be happy when these Covid super seniors are finally gone.

He can only earn $22,320 this year in NIL or his Social security will be reduced $1 for every $2 earned over that limit.

 

[Fly Rodder]

VT is a pretty good team with a mediocre record. They smashed UVA (in Blacksburg) and beat Iowa State & Clemson (in Blacksburg). They have two guys who can shoot like Chris Bell, who I've been told is the best 3 point shooter in the history of the ACC and irreplaceable. I think SU covers, but they need to keep VT off the 3pt line. Fortunately for SU, VT is an even worse rebounding squad.

 

[Bulldog04]

Really going to need the crowd tonight. “Be loud, be proud, be orange”. Let’s go

 

[jordoo]

VT is a pretty good team with a mediocre record. They smashed UVA (in Blacksburg) and beat Iowa State & Clemson (in Blacksburg). They have two guys who can shoot like Chris Bell, who I've been told is the best 3 point shooter in the history of the ACC and irreplaceable. I think SU covers, but they need to keep VT off the 3pt line. Fortunately for SU, VT is an even worse rebounding squad.

This is a game where 20 minutes of McCleod would have been nice. Run them off the 3pt Line and funnel them at the Highlander.

 

[007]

This is a game where 20 minutes of McCleod would have been nice. Run them off the 3pt Line and funnel them at the Highlander.

Yeah, good point. McCleod, as limited as he was/is, would have made at least a marginal difference in games like these. Running guys off the 3 line has pretty much resulted in a free path to the rim the entire season. This will likely continue tonight. The game will be won or lost at the other end.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Really going to need the crowd tonight. “Be loud, be proud, be orange”. Let’s go

Senior night with no seniors. Hopefully that last cheerleader that can do 15 or 16 flips continuously running the length of the court is not a senior. It will be like losing the baton twirling girl.

 

[bballbeadle]

Senior night with no seniors. Hopefully that last cheerleader that can do 15 or 16 flips continuously running the length of the court is not a senior. It will be like losing the baton twirling girl.

People just love her! A lot of fun.

 

[Consigliere]

Senior night with no seniors. Hopefully that last cheerleader that can do 15 or 16 flips continuously running the length of the court is not a senior. It will be like losing the baton twirling girl.

Hima is an academic senior and will be honored. Apparently redshirted his first year at Duquesne.

 

[tbonezone]

the COVID asterisk totally screwed any comparative statistical comparisons.
and Haute Couture was ACCT tourney MVP in 2022 when hokies smoked duke.

 

[jncuse]

Alright what am I missing here? Why doesn’t Vegas see this as SU -5ish?

As I note every time a strange line comes up, Vegas uses a system that basically parallels KenPom to set opening line values at this point. Not saying its right or wrong, but that is what they always do. And we all know like NET, our KP rating has been impacted by margins.

Here is the math
Per KP, on a neutral floor
Virginia Tech +13.8/100 possessions
Syracuse +9.5/100 possessions

Per 100, Virginia is 4.3 points better than us... as the standard game between these two teams will be 70 possessions, that means they are about 3.0 points better than us on a neutral floor (Per KP).

Add the 3.5 to 4.0 standard home point advantage, and that swings Syracuse from a 3.0 point dog on a neutral court, to a 1.0 point favourite at home.

It's all very predictable - for example next game at Louisville we will open as somewhere around 4.5 point favourites.

 

[Eric15]

As I note every time a strange line comes up

I feel like I’m in college and the professor just called on me and I didn’t do the reading assignment.

 

[jncuse]

I feel like I’m in college and the professor just called on me and I didn’t do the reading assignment.

Sorry didn’t mean it in a condescending way.

CB regular season lines are just very formulaic at this point. Now if I could figure out how to take advantage of that.

 

[pokercuse08]

Now if I could figure out how to take advantage of that.

You'd need some sort of "junk time" adjustment to the efficiency metrics. Figure out which teams are more likely to keep the pedal to the floor for a blowout and which teams are more likely to empty the bench. That should skew the efficiency ratings slightly, and you could wager accordingly - but your edges would be relatively small unless you had a pedal to the floor team against a back off team, then you might be able to get a 2-3 point edge.

Best way would be some sort of metric weighting the score with 10 mins left, or comparing that to the final score.

 

[tbonezone]

I feel like I’m in college and the professor just called on me and I didn’t do the reading assignment.

c. herbie hancock .

 

[orangecuse]

Cattoor is still there?! I know why they did it but man I will be happy when these Covid super seniors are finally gone.

Yeah right, I couldn't agree more.

On an aside, I tuned into the Georgetown vs. ND lax game on Sunday afternoon (great game by the way) and couldn't believe those Kavanaugh brothers for the Irish are still playing. It seems as if they've been there for a decade.

 

[FrancoPizza]

Really going to need the crowd tonight. “Be loud, be proud, be orange”. Let’s go

For once the weather should help get a nice walk up.

 

[Bulldog04]

For once the weather should help get a nice walk up.

Or everyone still saying they have to rake leaves when it’s this nice out lol

 

[Fly Rodder]

You'd need some sort of "junk time" adjustment to the efficiency metrics. Figure out which teams are more likely to keep the pedal to the floor for a blowout and which teams are more likely to empty the bench. That should skew the efficiency ratings slightly, and you could wager accordingly - but your edges would be relatively small unless you had a pedal to the floor team against a back off team, then you might be able to get a 2-3 point edge.

Best way would be some sort of metric weighting the score with 10 mins left, or comparing that to the final score.

Or you can just use Bart Torvik's T-rank:

I've made a small but significant change / addition to the ratings, which is that I now incorporate a metric I call "GameScript +/-" which is derived from play-by-play data and measures a team's average lead / deficit during a game. Also, for these purposes I lock this metric when the game is no longer in question. This adds a measure of "game control" and potentially weeds out some "garbage time" effects. More explanation here.