Syracuse Bubble/NET/ACC Rooting Guide 2/28 to 3/9

[SwagSocks]

UVA isn't good. How did we lose by 20

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

UVA isn't good. How did we lose by 20

Caught us at the right time. I hope our seeding in the ACCT lines us up against them soon as possible could easily take their spot in the Dance with a win.

Great to be wrong and see Wake get destroyed like this.

 

[OHIORANGES]

VT over Wake

 

[pearl31]

It's hard to win on the road, esp in conference

 

[CorduroyG]

If we win tonite we’re gonna be the 5 seed for the moment.

 

[IthacaMatt]

These results are looking good so far.
Duke crushing UVa
Va Tech coming from behind to beat Wake by double digits
Pitt beats BC

 

[jncuse]

These results are looking good so far.
Duke crushing UVa
Va Tech coming from behind to beat Wake by double digits
Pitt beats BC

That being said of the First 8 Teams out per the Matrix are 3-0 today, with a Q1 Win, Q2 Win, Q2 Win. That is not helpful as we look to compete with hopefully a few wins.

 

[jncuse]

UVA better be careful. Even at Cameron not scoring 20 points a half through the last 5 games of the season is gonna be a problem for the committtee.

Full body of work principle - no extra value to games in late February as compared to early January.

They beat G Tech, and avoid a bad loss in ACC tournament and they should clear the line.

 

[blust2i3d4]

Caught us at the right time. I hope our seeding in the ACCT lines us up against them soon as possible could easily take their spot in the Dance with a win.

Great to be wrong and see Wake get destroyed like this.

The best way is that VA, Pitt and us are tied at 12-8. Pitt has a win over VA. We have two wins over Pitt. VA has a win over us. We are the fourth seed. Virginia is the fifth seed. And Pitt is the sixth seed. But it needs everything goes perfectly, so we all finish 12-8. And Wake needs to be 13-7. Clemson needs to have one more loss besides losing to us.

 

[pokercuse08]

SATURDAY 3/2
12pm Asteroid to hit Villanova 71 at Providence 60 (both on bubble)
12pm DePaul 63 vs Butler 82
12pm Tulane 73 at Florida Atlantic 79
12pm Georgia Tech 85 vs Florida St 76
2pm Oregon 83 @ Arizona 103
2pm Oklahoma State 65 at Texas 81
3:30pm LSU 75 at Vandy 61
4pm NC State 70 @ North Carolina 79
4pm Charlotte 61 vs South Florida 76
5:30 Virginia Tech 87 vs Wake Forest 76
6pm VCU 76 at Richmond 79
6pm Georgia 56 vs Texas A&M 70
6pm Boston College 65 vs Pitt 90 (most likely, but we don't want Pitt to drop too far - and a BC win vs UVA may get them on the right side of the line for us already)
7pm Cornell 77 @ Princeton 79
7pm Asteroid to hit Kansas State 72 at Cincinnati 74 (both on bubble)
8pm Boise State 89 vs New Mexico 79
8pm SYRACUSE 82 @ Louisville 76
10pm St. Mary's 41 vs Gonzaga 53 (13:05 left)

Alright, very good day for us in ACC games, not so great in NET or bubble. We should *slightly* improve our NET efficiency numbers, but I'd be surprised if we move up more than a spot or two, and we may not move up at all. We needed a blowout for that. NC State may have beaten the efficiency spread, so don't be shocked if they move up from 80. Cornell may have kept it close enough to move up a bit, but we need them to move up a lot to help us. Probably need them to win the Ivy tourney.

Looks like only two out of nine bubble games went our way.

BUT, we have a decent shot at the double bye now if we can beat Clemson. Then, if I've calculated correctly, we just need Wake to lose a game - they close at home vs Georgia Tech and Clemson. We can move as high as 3rd, but I think the scenarios look better for us in 4th.

 

[pokercuse08]

The best way is that VA, Pitt and us are tied at 12-8. Pitt has a win over VA. We have two wins over Pitt. VA has a win over us. We are the fourth seed. Virginia is the fifth seed. And Pitt is the sixth seed. But it needs everything goes perfectly, so we all finish 12-8. And Wake needs to be 13-7. Clemson needs to have one more loss besides losing to us.

If we get into a 3 way tie with UVA and Pitt at 12-8, I think we end up 3rd, UVA 4th, Pitt 5th.

Right? We go 2-1 vs the group, UVA goes 1-1, Pitt goes 1-2.

As far as I can tell, the only path to a matchup with UVA is to see a four way tie at 12-8, adding Wake to the mix. That sorts into 3 Wake, 4 UVA, 5 Cuse, 6 Pitt. We then get the winner of Miami/ND, then UVA.

 

[rocfan44]

Alright, very good day for us in ACC games, not so great in NET or bubble. We should *slightly* improve our NET efficiency numbers, but I'd be surprised if we move up more than a spot or two, and we may not move up at all. We needed a blowout for that. NC State may have beaten the efficiency spread, so don't be shocked if they move up from 80. Cornell may have kept it close enough to move up a bit, but we need them to move up a lot to help us. Probably need them to win the Ivy tourney.

Looks like only two out of nine bubble games went our way.

BUT, we have a decent shot at the double bye now if we can beat Clemson. Then, if I've calculated correctly, we just need Wake to lose a game - they close at home vs Georgia Tech and Clemson. We can move as high as 3rd, but I think the scenarios look better for us in 4th.

I questioned as to if you were right about even still mathematically possible for three seed and there is a path to it. Crazy!!!!

 

[rocfan44]

If we get into a 3 way tie with UVA and Pitt at 12-8, I think we end up 3rd, UVA 4th, Pitt 5th.

Right? We go 2-1 vs the group, UVA goes 1-1, Pitt goes 1-2.

As far as I can tell, the only path to a matchup with UVA is to see a four way tie at 12-8, adding Wake to the mix. That sorts into 3 Wake, 4 UVA, 5 Cuse, 6 Pitt. We then get the winner of Miami/ND, then UVA.

You are correct. Here’s how we get there and the results.

 

[pokercuse08]

Yeah and it's not even a crazy path.

Syracuse W @ Clemson
Pitt W vs FSU
Pitt W vs NC State
Virginia L vs Ga Tech
Wake L vs GT OR Clemson

All very plausible, obviously hitting a six game parlay isn't likely, but the only underdogs are probably us, Georgia Tech over Virginia - but UVA is struggling big time, and Clemson at Wake, but that's not inconceivable.

 

[wiseman3]

Yeah and it's not even a crazy path.

Syracuse W @ Clemson
Pitt W vs FSU
Wake W vs GT
Pitt W vs NC State
Virginia L vs Ga Tech
Clemson W at Wake Forest

All very plausible, obviously hitting a six game parlay isn't likely, but the only underdogs are probably us, Georgia Tech over Virginia - but UVA is struggling big time, and Clemson at Wake, but that's not inconceivable.

I could be wrong but I don't think Wake vs. GT matters...all we need is 1 loss from them

 

[blust2i3d4]

If we get into a 3 way tie with UVA and Pitt at 12-8, I think we end up 3rd, UVA 4th, Pitt 5th.

Right? We go 2-1 vs the group, UVA goes 1-1, Pitt goes 1-2.

As far as I can tell, the only path to a matchup with UVA is to see a four way tie at 12-8, adding Wake to the mix. That sorts into 3 Wake, 4 UVA, 5 Cuse, 6 Pitt. We then get the winner of Miami/ND, then UVA.

The other ACC schools lost so much today. We no longer need some scenario to get to fourth seed. The other ACC schools have handed it to us. We now have too many paths to get to 4th seed if we win out. Yesterday there was only one scenario assuming most schools ahead of us win most of their remaining games according to the ranking.

 

[pokercuse08]

I could be wrong but I don't think Wake vs. GT matters...all we need is 1 loss from them

I think you're right, so yeah Wake losing EITHER of the two, which helps us a lot. Let me go up and fix that.

So that means if we win, we need to hit a three team parlay and one of two needs to be an L for Wake. And two of the three team parlay are favorites, and the other is an upset of a team playing awful right now. So, probably something like a 20% chance, then we need either one to go our way in the Wake games, give that about a 65% chance, puts us around 13% to finish third if we beat Clemson.

Back of the napkin math and some rough estimates, but should be in the ballpark.

 

[rocfan44]

I could be wrong but I don't think Wake vs. GT matters...all we need is 1 loss from them

You are correct. Any loss against GT or Clemson for them they are out. I think he listed it as it is still a game that has implications.

 

[rocfan44]

The other ACC schools lost so much today. We no longer need some scenario to get to fourth seed. The other ACC schools have handed it to us. We now have too many paths to get to 4th seed if we win out. Yesterday there was only one scenario assuming most schools ahead of us win most of their remaining games according to the ranking.

We do, but we still need WF to lose one in most simulations I did.

 

[rocfan44]

I am curious what others think. How much do you think the double bye would help us? Is this a team that can withstand possibly not playing for nine days? Are we better off being a 5 or 6 seed?

 

[pokercuse08]

I am curious what others think. How much do you think the double bye would help us? Is this a team that can withstand possibly not playing for nine days? Are we better off being a 5 or 6 seed?

I would very much prefer the double bye. Few reasons:

1. Looks like the consensus is five ACC teams in. My gut feeling is that it's pretty rare to see a power conference get its 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 6th finishing teams in and not its 4th. I feel like fourth in the ACC and pointing to our overall Strength of Schedule is a VERY good argument.

2. If you believe we need one more big win after (hopefully) beating Clemson, you have to keep in mind that we basically only play six guys. It's going to be much easier for us to pick up a win as the more rested team than to be coming off a back-to-back against a rested team.

3. Some of the teams at the bottom of the conference are actually playing reasonably well right now, but if we lose to one of them in the ACCT we're toast. If we beat Clemson on the road, get the double bye, then lose to a Clemson or Wake, we may still be in.

 

[wiseman3]

I would very much prefer the double bye. Few reasons:

1. Looks like the consensus is five ACC teams in. My gut feeling is that it's pretty rare to see a power conference get its 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 6th finishing teams in and not its 4th. I feel like fourth in the ACC and pointing to our overall Strength of Schedule is a VERY good argument.

2. If you believe we need one more big win after (hopefully) beating Clemson, you have to keep in mind that we basically only play six guys. It's going to be much easier for us to pick up a win as the more rested team than to be coming off a back-to-back against a rested team.

3. Some of the teams at the bottom of the conference are actually playing reasonably well right now, but if we lose to one of them in the ACCT we're toast. If we beat Clemson on the road, get the double bye, then lose to a Clemson or Wake, we may still be in.

Agreed. A win vs Clemson, rest and avoiding a "bad" loss may still be enough. Its not often a top 4 ACC team gets left out...unless you're Clemson last year. I'd still take those odds

 

[blust2i3d4]

I am curious what others think. How much do you think the double bye would help us? Is this a team that can withstand possibly not playing for nine days? Are we better off being a 5 or 6 seed?

I think for young teams, play four games as 5/6/7/8 seed is better. If the past conference tournaments are indication.

 

[jncuse]

I would very much prefer the double bye. Few reasons:

1. Looks like the consensus is five ACC teams in. My gut feeling is that it's pretty rare to see a power conference get its 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 6th finishing teams in and not its 4th. I feel like fourth in the ACC and pointing to our overall Strength of Schedule is a VERY good argument.

2. If you believe we need one more big win after (hopefully) beating Clemson, you have to keep in mind that we basically only play six guys. It's going to be much easier for us to pick up a win as the more rested team than to be coming off a back-to-back against a rested team.

3. Some of the teams at the bottom of the conference are actually playing reasonably well right now, but if we lose to one of them in the ACCT we're toast. If we beat Clemson on the road, get the double bye, then lose to a Clemson or Wake, we may still be in.

I'll focus on 3 which I totally agree with - those first round games, are what I call "nuisance" games at times. If we play someone like GT, the win does not really help us get over the top. Furthermore, if the committee the loss takes us out. They are no reward games. Absolutely prefer the extra rest and the byes.

But regarding point #1, my gut is its not that unusual for #4 to be left out in such a scenario. Due to unbalanced schedule and "full body of work" principle now that values a good win or bad loss just as much if it happened in November or December.

 

[pokercuse08]

But regarding point #1, my gut is its not that unusual for #4 to be left out in such a scenario. Due to unbalanced schedule and "full body of work" principle now that values a good win or bad loss just as much if it happened in November or December.

Yeah it's not impossible obviously, and it's impossible to know what actually gets discussed in the room, but I think it is at least a point in our favor. I don't think it necessarily helps us get in over them, but I do think it forces the committee to at least consider 6 ACC teams instead of 5.

Unfortunately with the teams in question it's hard to argue we belong in over either. Wake smoked us, and we'd have a split with Clemson, who also played a tough non-conference schedule and fared better than us.

On the other hand if we get the 3/4 seed and beat the 5/6 in the ACCT, I think it becomes very hard to put that team in over us. But at that point we should be talking about being squarely on the right side of the bubble just off our own resume.