Dancing

[jncuse]

I was going to post something like the following before today's game - but I figured why the heck waste my time especially if we lose -- now perhaps some will be more interested. As I said above the Pitt, Wake and NC St road games are important tilting games for us.

To me this is our target resume to probably be a valid bubble team (our home) heading into conference week based on what I have seen over the years,
21-10
8-10 record in Q1+Q2 games
0 bad losses (a "clean" resume with no Q3 or Q4 losses).
This would get our NET to something acceptable if everything else is fine (below 70)

As a comparison Clemson last year did have a very good 4 Q1 wins, and a nice 7-6 record in Q1+Q2, but they had 5 bad losses. 5!!

Of course the mix of Q1-Q2 matters, but I'll discuss that later.

A) "Clean Resume" So let's take a step further before today's game. We were 11-5.
Without glamour wins I think it will be important to have no bad losses -- most bubble teams have one or two so that helps us.

We need to sweep Louisville, win at home vs Notre Dame, and win at home vs FSU to have a clean resume. If we don't take those 4 games our hopes are pretty bad or dead anyway. So for the sake of this just assume the sweep.

B) So after A (sweeping those 4 games), that takes us to 15-5 before tonight.

That means we had to go 6-5 in the remaining 11 games which as of now are all Q1+Q2. After tonight its 5-5. So this is our target in my view winning 5 of the following 10 games to get on the bubble and then wait.

At Wake (Q1)
At NC St (Q1)
At Georgia Tech (very close to Q3)
At BC
At Clemson (Q1)

NC St (Very close to Q3)
Virginia Tech
Clemson (Q1)
UNC (Q1)
Miami

5-5 in the above seems achievable. Obviously if we could mix in a few Q1 wins as part of the mix the better.

 

[jncuse]

Moving this from the Post Game Thread to here, where it is more relevant.

It’s bound to change, but we have plenty of opportunity to get some more Q1 and Q2 wins.

Q1 - 5 games (@WF, @NCSt, @Clem, vs Clem, vs UNC)
Q2 - 5 games (vs Mia, vs NCSt, @BC, @GaT, vs VT)
Q3 - 3 games (vs FSU, vs ND, @ Lville)
Q4 - 1 game (vs Lville)

2-3 vs Q1, 3-2 vs Q2 and 4-0 vs Q3/4 probably gets us in the NCAAt

A lot more Q1 and Q2 opportunities for ACC teams this year.

As a matter of comparison Clemson, an ACC bubble team last year, only had 11 Q1/Q2 games (9 In, 2 Out) before the ACC Tournament last year. We are on pace for 17 Q1/Q2 games (13 In, 4 Out). Even with slippage in conference by teams on the "border", at worse that number will be 15. That's a lot more opportunity, and the committee seems to be more concerned with volume than %.

We are helped by the fact that while the ACC is not particularly strong, it is not abysmal like it was the past 2 years.

 

[Cstate]

Clemson had some head scratching losses for sure, but it must have been demoralizing knowing that you beat NC State THREE times and they made the dance.

 

[jncuse]

Clemson had some head scratching losses for sure, but it must have been demoralizing knowing that you beat NC State THREE times and they made the dance.

Clemson beats one of #234, #269, #315 and its probably not a discussion. I'm basically 100% certain that no bubble team ever had such a number of absurd losses. It's basically on them.

I know some viewed it differently, but to me be fair to all the other dozen or so teams on the bubble the comparison couldn't be just the 3 games between 2 teams, but had to be all the games.

 

[AlaskaSU]

If by some miracle we snuck into the dance we would be matched against a top 10 team that would embarrass us. Better to stay home.

My guess is that Pitt. will be a tier 3.

 

[6OTS]

If by some miracle we snuck into the dance we would be matched against a top 10 team that would embarrass us. Better to stay home.

What? I would take a first round loss over an NIT or some such 100/100 times

 

[bnoro]

If by some miracle we snuck into the dance we would be matched against a top 10 team that would embarrass us. Better to stay home.

My guess is that Pitt. will be a tier 3.

Good lord lol. No team has ever gotten better as the year has progressed, I guess.

 

[jr4750]

What? I would take a first round loss over an NIT or some such 100/100 times

200 out of 100 times. NIT is worthless really. Making the tourney is huge, even with early exits.

 

[elimunelson]

If by some miracle we snuck into the dance we would be matched against a top 10 team that would embarrass us. Better to stay home.

My guess is that Pitt. will be a tier 3.

Getting into the tournament is opening a nice bottle of wine. Sometimes those bottles are vintages (2003) and sometimes they are flat and overpriced. But i'll always take a chance at a vintage bottle of wine no matter how bad it looks.

 

[FrancoPizza]

If by some miracle we snuck into the dance we would be matched against a top 10 team that would embarrass us. Better to stay home.

My guess is that Pitt. will be a tier 3.

Uh no, this isn't the CFP. We'd be in the play-in game or playing a 5 seed. Not impossible by any stretch.

 

[jdubs30]

Per BartTorvik - To date, we’ve had the toughest ACC schedule. But the rest of the way we have the easiest. It ends up being that we have 4th easiest schedule in the league.

I think at 12-5 we are close to the point of just caring quantity more than quality wins if we want to get in the tournament. Of our 5 losses, 4 were road/neutral vs top 30 teams. It’s possible we already have 3 top 75 wins - and 2 were away from home.

If we go 7-1 at home (lose to UNC) that’s 19 wins . Plenty of nice road spots to get a win or 2 - BC, GaTech, NC State, Louisville. I think we can hang with Clemson and Wake on the road too.

Does 21 wins with 12 being in the ACC give us enough assuming our SOS number stays strong? I think it would

 

[DCUNITED13]

When was the last time we won 23 Wins? I think 23 Wins is the goal and a #6 Seed in the process.

GO CUSE

 

[SUOrangeSU]

I guess I'm in the minority but since we've had no bad losses yet and we're beating who we're supposed to and we'll nab one that we "aren't" supposed to win...I think we're going to make it. Of course, a lot can change from now till march but

 

[RF2044]

Per BartTorvik - To date, we’ve had the toughest ACC schedule. But the rest of the way we have the easiest. It ends up being that we have 4th easiest schedule in the league.

I think at 12-5 we are close to the point of just caring quantity more than quality wins if we want to get in the tournament. Of our 5 losses, 4 were road/neutral vs top 30 teams. It’s possible we already have 3 top 75 wins - and 2 were away from home.

If we go 7-1 at home (lose to UNC) that’s 19 wins . Plenty of nice road spots to get a win or 2 - BC, GaTech, NC State, Louisville. I think we can hang with Clemson and Wake on the road too.

Does 21 wins with 12 being in the ACC give us enough assuming our SOS number stays strong? I think it would

I was going to post something similar [and please note, I'm not predicting that we make the tourney].

But the next 5 games are winnable. Can we get at least 4? Can we get all 5?

Because then you're looking at a 16 or 17 win team, positioned well for the final push. And we'll have some additional opportunities for quality wins [since that is more important than just win totals, like in the old days].

Didn't seem possible on Saturday -- seems more realistic today, after last night's Quad 1 win.

 

[Cstate]

I guess I'm in the minority but since we've had no bad losses yet and we're beating who we're supposed to and we'll nab one that we "aren't" supposed to win...I think we're going to make it. Of course, a lot can change from now till march but

I feel the same way, but then I also realize that our average margin of defeat in Quad 1 is by 22.8 points. I just can’t imagine that won’t end up hurting us. Also, as I just posted in the NET thread……the teams original AP Top 25 ranking at the time the game was played stays next to their name, so I’m assuming that comes into play during the review process.

 

[jncuse]

If by some miracle we snuck into the dance we would be matched against a top 10 team that would embarrass us. Better to stay home.

My guess is that Pitt. will be a tier 3.

We are not getting a 14 or 15 seed in the tournament, which is the only way we play a top 10 team in the first round.

If we get in, its between the #10-#12 seed lines or as a play in.

 

[jncuse]

200 out of 100 times. NIT is worthless really. Making the tourney is huge, even with early exits.

That being said I would take the NIT over where we have been the last 2 years!

 

[jncuse]

Per BartTorvik - To date, we’ve had the toughest ACC schedule. But the rest of the way we have the easiest. It ends up being that we have 4th easiest schedule in the league.

I think at 12-5 we are close to the point of just caring quantity more than quality wins if we want to get in the tournament. Of our 5 losses, 4 were road/neutral vs top 30 teams. It’s possible we already have 3 top 75 wins - and 2 were away from home.

If we go 7-1 at home (lose to UNC) that’s 19 wins . Plenty of nice road spots to get a win or 2 - BC, GaTech, NC State, Louisville. I think we can hang with Clemson and Wake on the road too.

Does 21 wins with 12 being in the ACC give us enough assuming our SOS number stays strong? I think it would

21 wins, 12-8 in the ACC is the preliminary target I have set as a strong bubble resume. That may move though.

Get 9 more ACC wins, whomever and wherever, and the Q1 and Q2, NET should work itself out. And if we can avoid losing one of our 4 WT* games, 5-5 in the rest at least seems plausible.

 

[grepal]

The question is will this team be over .500 when the season ends.

Do you feel a little better today we need four wins to get to 16. We should get there and more.
We are not a contender for a crown, but the big dance is possible.

 

[jr4750]

That being said I would take the NIT over where we have been the last 2 years!

Yes, for sure. I should have provided more clarity. In an era where teams change so much year by year, (transferring, going pro, NIL, etc) I just don't see a ton of value in the NIT. I guess it gives certain younger players experience, but it rings fairly hollow to me. Really hoping we can sneak in this year. Makes March way more fun.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

200 out of 100 times. NIT is worthless really. Making the tourney is huge, even with early exits.

Especially for Red when he recruits. Now he is an NCAA coach in his first year, after taking over a non-NCAA team.

 

[jncuse]

Do you feel a little better today we need four wins to get to 16. We should get there and more.
We are not a contender for a crown, but the big dance is possible.

We are certainly getting 16.

Forced to give either a hard yes or hard no, on whether we are getting in this year, I would say no.
But that said there is a somewhat plausible path for us that is forming, and its not close to 0%.

 

[OrangeOnions]

Do you feel a little better today we need four wins to get to 16. We should get there and more.
We are not a contender for a crown, but the big dance is possible.

I'm feeling great, but not about the tournament. Nor is it a great feeling to hope to be barely over .500.

 

[bnoro]

I'm feeling great, but not about the tournament. Nor is it a great feeling to hope to be barely over .500.

You're the only one hoping we're over .500 though.

I'm expecting us to be on the bubble or in the tournament at the worst.

 

[Cuse House]

LSU leading #22 Ole Miss at half.