The fact that the NCAA cannot dictate unilaterally was a surprise to me, but based on that fact I honestly see one unified scenario. All areas have the virus under control and are comfortable opening up campuses. Just don't see the dynamics changing enough in the next 8 or 9 weeks to feel confident that will be the case. As long as state and local authorities have the autonomy to open up campuses again some will, and as long as State U. can find a handful of opponents they are going to play.
I agree it is very possible some leagues might start playing at a different times than other leagues. Some leagues are likely going to elect to play without some schools participating.
If so, this will complicate matters for OOC play. I suspect many OOC games will either not be played or the opponent will be replaced by a school close by with less risk of transmission/less expense, etc.
If so, the bowl situation could get really complicated. Heck, the bowls are probably going to be cancelled in an attempt to shorten the season and get the season in. TV coverage will be a mess.
But the focus is surely going to be, what can we do to mitigate risk and get the season in? That is probably going to result in shortened seasons.
If you want to speculate on which conferences will have the hardest time getting a full complement of teams to play, and which are most likely to not be ready to play the normal schedule, here is a link to an NPR article that features a model laying out when each state will be able to start social distancing.
The last 10 states they list as being ready to start social distancing are as follows:
JUNE 17 | Oklahoma |
JUNE 21 | Kansas |
JUNE 22 | Arkansas, Georgia |
JUNE 23 | Utah |
JUNE 26 | Arizona, Iowa |
JUNE 27 | South Dakota |
JULY 3 | Nebraska |
JULY 19 | North Dakota |
The breakdown by P5 conference is as follows (assuming I did the counts right):
B12: 5
P12: 3
SEC: 2
B1G: 2
ACC: 1
It looks like the conferences most intent on playing ASAP (which are incidentally the ones making the least money*) are the conferences that are going to have the most problems.
*=unconfirmed yet but believed because of the ACCN