Death Penalty

[Consigliere]

In my opinion, there will be some form of college football in September. Short of an NCAA edict unilaterally shutting down the sport (which would be swiftly struck down in court) there will be wide areas of the country where risk is judged to be minimal and football too important to a state university. Also in my opinion, there will still be hot zones with lock down orders still in place, thus programs that cannot compete. If this comes to pass, and if the NCAA approves the one time transfer waiver, won’t that be in essence the death penalty for affected programs?

 

[Shenexon]

In my opinion, there will be some form of college football in September. Short of an NCAA edict unilaterally shutting down the sport (which would be swiftly struck down in court) there will be wide areas of the country where risk is judged to be minimal and football too important to a state university. Also in my opinion, there will still be hot zones with lock down orders still in place, thus programs that cannot compete. If this comes to pass, and if the NCAA approves the one time transfer waiver, won’t that be in essence the death penalty for affected programs?

Sure is going to be an interesting year...

Edit: I'm thinking a lot of schools restructure coming out of the virus. Many schools were struggling before covid and may not come back in the same way, if they have the capital to start up again at all. This may spur increased use of online education, to the detriment of traditional on-campus schools. I have my tickets in 302 and just want the benches back, a roof, the tailgate, and I'm good, but even the places that play this fall will see small crowds if they're even allowed at all. Will home teams be able to pipe in fan noise?

 

[TexanMark]

The only way to partially combat that disaster is if the NCAA grants an extra year if eligibility for the players if they stay at School X.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I just don't see it happening. Schools aren't even confident they'll have students on campus. There's going to be a certain tipping point where if enough of them go virtual, fall sports aren't a realistic option for anyone.

 

[PAcuse]

It's going to have to be an all for nothing start.
Can you image if say an Alabama gets a hot spot and can't open and the NCAA saying oh yeah your team can transfer and you will just have to start over, that won't fly at all.
Now I could see it open if some G5 or lower schools can't fully open but I would imagine all P5 schools will have to be full go to start it on time.

 

[dan7800]

I could actually see CFB being played and the NFL not.

Think about it, most CFB players don't have a spouse and kids and are already away from their primary family for a few months while they are away at school. It COULD be possible to essentially quarantine entire teams and coaches and have them play games with no fans.

With that said, there are a myriad of "what ifs" and immense hurdles (eg a player on a team tests positive, is that team "out"? - Think about if a player tested positive right before a game, is that a forfeit for the season??). If CFB was the only sport, then I'd guess that the TV revenue would surpass the amount of lost ticket sale money.

My guess is that it will be an all or nothing for P5 conferences, and likely CFB as a whole. Look at what happened with CBB conference tourneys and the poor optics that a conference/school could face.

 

[EnviroSciGuy]

I can see both NFL and NCAAF being played without crowds. Obviously this would need to be deemed safe for the players, and the thing that makes covid so insidious is that it can be highly contagious during a long asymptomatic period, so even heavy monitoring can be futile in observing its spread given the time lag of symptoms appearing. Even with weekly or semi-weekly monitoring, it could spread like wildfire among an entire team before it's detected.

Of course, by the end of summer we will have a lot more data on treatment and perhaps even better detection methods, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Eric15]

I could actually see CFB being played and the NFL not.

I actually see it the opposite way. The NFL doesn't have to put on a facade of academics + athletics. It's just football. And they're paid, professional athletes.

I don't see how colleges can possibly justify not allowing students in academic buildings for safety reasons, but simultaneously allowing athletes to physically interact. It's trying to thread a needle of logic that doesn't exist.

 

[Consigliere]

It's going to have to be an all for nothing start.
Can you image if say an Alabama gets a hot spot and can't open and the NCAA saying oh yeah your team can transfer and you will just have to start over, that won't fly at all.
Now I could see it open if some G5 or lower schools can't fully open but I would imagine all P5 schools will have to be full go to start it on time.

I always assumed it would be, but apparently the NCAA can not dictate and the P5 cannot reach a solid consensus. Expect the B12 to most definitely play as scheduled barring a severe flare up. And even individual conferences are discussing contingencies if most schools can play but one or two cannot. Ultimately this will be driven by state / local governments. I think it’s clear where the governor of Georgia will land.

 

[dollarbill44]

It's still April. There's a lot of time for things to change. Look at how much has happened in just 5 weeks.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

It's still April. There's a lot of time for things to change. Look at how much has happened in just 5 weeks.

I mean... have things gotten more positive in 5 weeks though?

A lot has changed very quickly, but I don't think things have gotten better exactly.

 

[KellySyracuse]

Ugh, the thought of no college football is just depressing. There hasn't been a lot of optimism that we'll even be able to go to a restaurant or pub within the couple of months. I sure would like to see some light at the end of the tunnel at some point soon, even if it's a faint glimmer.

 

[Chip]

I just don't see it happening. Schools aren't even confident they'll have students on campus. There's going to be a certain tipping point where if enough of them go virtual, fall sports aren't a realistic option for anyone.

If enough of them go virtual, the two most popular words outside of social distancing will be gap year. College football will be a big financial hit, but no students will be bigger.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

If enough of them go virtual, the two most popular words outside of social distancing will be gap year. College football will be a big financial hit, but no students will be bigger.

Yup - coronagap.

I think it's going to happen though.

 

[Stern]

I actually see it the opposite way. The NFL doesn't have to put on a facade of academics + athletics. It's just football. And they're paid, professional athletes.

I don't see how colleges can possibly justify not allowing students in academic buildings for safety reasons, but simultaneously allowing athletes to physically interact. It's trying to thread a needle of logic that doesn't exist.

NFL players also have a players union to protect them and make sure they are safe and they will work with the NFL to something agreed upon to ensure the safety of all. College athletes don't have a union and colleges aren't going to open themselves up to lawsuits from college athletes.

 

[sufandu]

In my opinion, there will be some form of college football in September. Short of an NCAA edict unilaterally shutting down the sport (which would be swiftly struck down in court) there will be wide areas of the country where risk is judged to be minimal and football too important to a state university. Also in my opinion, there will still be hot zones with lock down orders still in place, thus programs that cannot compete. If this comes to pass, and if the NCAA approves the one time transfer waiver, won’t that be in essence the death penalty for affected programs?

The importance of football to the universities is overstated. Most athletic budgets are separate from overall university budgets, so the impact there is moderated and somehow thousands of universities exist without major college football. The bigger impact will be due to students being absent from campus. It's hard to apply for all of the big money making grants with nobody present to do what the grants are paying for.

It's just my opinion, but I don't think we'll see a piecemeal approach. Either everyone will participate or noone will.

 

[Symphony Steve]

The importance of football to the universities is overstated. Most athletic budgets are separate from overall university budgets, so the impact there is moderated and somehow thousands of universities exist without major college football. The bigger impact will be due to students being absent from campus. It's hard to apply for all of the big money making grants with nobody present to do what the grants are paying for.

It's just my opinion, but I don't think it'll be a piecemeal approach. Either everyone will be playing or noone will.
It's just my opinion, but I don't think we'll see a piecemeal approach. Either everyone will participate or noone will.

The impact of college football to the universities may be overstated, but not the impact of college football, big-time college football, on the economies of the college towns where they reside.

Not wishing to tempt schadenfreude or anything, but what else does State College, Pa. have to bolster the local economy?

 

[Consigliere]

It's just my opinion, but I don't think it'll be a piecemeal approach. Either everyone will be playing or noone will.
It's just my opinion, but I don't think we'll see a piecemeal approach. Either everyone will participate or noone will.

The fact that the NCAA cannot dictate unilaterally was a surprise to me, but based on that fact I honestly see one unified scenario. All areas have the virus under control and are comfortable opening up campuses. Just don't see the dynamics changing enough in the next 8 or 9 weeks to feel confident that will be the case. As long as state and local authorities have the autonomy to open up campuses again some will, and as long as State U. can find a handful of opponents they are going to play.

 

[sutomcat]

The fact that the NCAA cannot dictate unilaterally was a surprise to me, but based on that fact I honestly see one unified scenario. All areas have the virus under control and are comfortable opening up campuses. Just don't see the dynamics changing enough in the next 8 or 9 weeks to feel confident that will be the case. As long as state and local authorities have the autonomy to open up campuses again some will, and as long as State U. can find a handful of opponents they are going to play.

I agree it is very possible some leagues might start playing at a different times than other leagues. Some leagues are likely going to elect to play without some schools participating.

If so, this will complicate matters for OOC play. I suspect many OOC games will either not be played or the opponent will be replaced by a school close by with less risk of transmission/less expense, etc.

If so, the bowl situation could get really complicated. Heck, the bowls are probably going to be cancelled in an attempt to shorten the season and get the season in. TV coverage will be a mess.

But the focus is surely going to be, what can we do to mitigate risk and get the season in? That is probably going to result in shortened seasons.

If you want to speculate on which conferences will have the hardest time getting a full complement of teams to play, and which are most likely to not be ready to play the normal schedule, here is a link to an NPR article that features a model laying out when each state will be able to start social distancing.

The last 10 states they list as being ready to start social distancing are as follows:

JUNE 17	Oklahoma
JUNE 21	Kansas
JUNE 22	Arkansas, Georgia
JUNE 23	Utah
JUNE 26	Arizona, Iowa
JUNE 27	South Dakota

JULY 3	Nebraska
JULY 19	North Dakota

The breakdown by P5 conference is as follows (assuming I did the counts right):

B12: 5
P12: 3
SEC: 2
B1G: 2
ACC: 1

It looks like the conferences most intent on playing ASAP (which are incidentally the ones making the least money*) are the conferences that are going to have the most problems.

*=unconfirmed yet but believed because of the ACCN

 

[maxxyz]

Not wishing to tempt schadenfreude or anything, but what else does State College, Pa. have to bolster the local economy?

Ummm... 80,000 students living there and spending money for 9 months out of the year?

 

[PAcuse]

Ummm... 80,000 students living there and spending money for 9 months out of the year?

Plus the 100k fans coming up on weekends

 

[Symphony Steve]

Ummm... 80,000 students living there and spending money for 9 months out of the year?

Ummm, the students

Plus the 100k fans coming up on weekends

Which is what they won't have if they don't have a season. Which was my point. Not to mention, who is to say that the students will be back?

 

[rrlbees]

I would miss college football immensely, especially the games in the Dome and our tailgates. But I just can’t see it. Unless there is a proven, broadly used, and available vaccine how do you do it? Certain places being able to “open up” doesn’t mean everything should open in that area. What some of these schools and conferences are going to do is set themselves up for massive lawsuits. God forbid fans in the stands or players on the field get infected, or even worse, die. And no testing can assure safety since people can be asymptomatic. Taking fans temperatures as they walk in does nothing. It’s a terrible situation with no easy solution.

 

[baggerbob]

Unless all the students are back in the fall, there will be no football. The NCAA can't play football and have any pretence of Student Athletes.

 

[maxxyz]

Ummm... 80,000 students living there and spending money for 9 months out of the year?

Ummm, the students

My point exactly. While losing 100K of fans for 6 games a year will hurt, they have a student population the size of the city of Albany NY. If restrictions on gatherings are relaxed for groups under 500 they will still have a bustling local economy.