Dino's Game 12 Press Conference | BC

[rrlbees]

And what are the odds to score 3 touchdowns, kick an insides kick. And kick a FG. All without the other team scoring once?

Or getting a turnover

 

[FloridaFan]

Or getting a turnover

A turnover also can apply for going for 2 twice. What are the odds of converting an onsides kick?

 

[JeremyCuse]

It’s Tucker

I can assure you its not. He's not coming back.

 

[690West]

I can assure you its not. He's not coming back.

Yeah. Just Messin

 

[rrlbees]

A turnover also can apply for going for 2 twice. What are the odds of converting an onsides kick?

23%. So think about it.

 

[kcsu]

I said this after year two with him. Dino is so smart that he out smarts himself

 

[Jake]

IMHO. The chance of either happening is so small that it’s not worth the mental gymnastics required to figure out what to do.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

The conversion rate is estimated to be about 40%. Although Dino said it’s 38% vs WF. But we’ll use 40%.

.4 x .4 x .4 = .06

Some say it’s closer to 43%. Even at that making 3 would be 7.9%

That is way too low, it is closer to 50. Still even a 6% success rate is better than 0%.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

23%. So think about it.

That is too high, it includes surprise on side kicks which have a higher success rate. It is closer to 15%. Still the point is there is zero real risk in going for 2. If you fail you are still 3 scores down. You are moving the goal posts.

 

[rrlbees]

That is too high, it includes surprise on side kicks which have a higher success rate. It is closer to 15%. Still the point is there is zero real risk in going for 2. If you fail you are still 3 scores down. You are moving the goal posts.

I didn’t move anything. You’re just dismissing math. The bottom line is it wasnt such a stupid decision as some people said.

 

[OrangeTarheel]

Maybe Dino talked with himself

 

[Chris02M]

Maybe Dino talked with himself

sometimes you have to have a conversation with someone equally smart so you talk to yourself

 

[PhatOrange]

I can assure you its not. He's not coming back.

Good

 

[Finwad32]

If GS comes back, I’ll feel really good about the offense.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I didn’t move anything. You’re just dismissing math. The bottom line is it wasnt such a stupid decision as some people said.

How am I dismissing math? I am using math. Going for 2 vs onside kicking is NOT the choice here.

I will make it simple using your numbers (which I do not agree are accurate).

6.4% chance of 45-45 (0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4) which is better as you no longer need an onside kick plus moving the ball 25 yards plus kicking a FG.

9.6% chance of 45-43 which is better than 45-42 as you can now win with a FG (0.4 x 0.4 x 0.6).

48% chance of 45-42 which is the same score as PATs (0.4 x 0.6 plus 0.6 x 0.4).

36% chance of 45-40 which means you now need a TD instead of a FG, but you do win in that case (0.6 x 0.6).

If you have the time for 3 more drives then you kick the PAT as 36% > 16% (if you are using 40% conversion rate). If it were the 3rd Q then the math says PAT.

However with 10 mins left and 2 TOs there is not enough time to force a punt, go ~65 yards for a TD, force a punt, go ~65 yards for a TD, recover an onside kick, go ~25 yards and kick a long FG. The only realistic way to tie or win the game is by going for 2 and converting 3x. Yes, that is a 6.4% chance but it is better than 0.0%. There isn't enough time for any other scenario.

The numbers change quite a bit at 45% or 50% conversion rates.

40%
36% vs 16%

45%
30.25% vs 20.25%

50%
25% vs 25%

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Or to put it another way...

Kicking the PAT
There is 100% chance (if you have time) that you need an onside kick. And there is a 23% chance (using your number which I don't agree with) of getting the ball there.

Going for 2
There is a 6.4% chance (using a 40% conversion rate) you DO NOT need an onside kick. There is a 93.6% chance you need an onside kick, which comes out to 21.5% (0.936 x 0.23). So 6.4% + 21.5% > 23%.


That gap is even bigger if you believe the conversion rates are closer to 50% and 15%, vs 40% and 23%. Then you get 12.5% + 13.125% > 15%.

 

[richmondcuse03]

How am I dismissing math? I am using math. Going for 2 vs onside kicking is NOT the choice here.

I will make it simple using your numbers (which I do not agree are accurate).

6.4% chance of 45-45 (0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4) which is better as you no longer need an onside kick plus moving the ball 25 yards plus kicking a FG.

9.6% chance of 45-43 which is better than 45-42 as you can now win with a FG (0.4 x 0.4 x 0.6).

48% chance of 45-42 which is the same score as PATs (0.4 x 0.6 plus 0.6 x 0.4).

36% chance of 45-40 which means you now need a TD instead of a FG, but you do win in that case (0.6 x 0.6).

If you have the time for 3 more drives then you kick the PAT as 36% > 16% (if you are using 40% conversion rate). If it were the 3rd Q then the math says PAT.

However with 10 mins left and 2 TOs there is not enough time to force a punt, go ~65 yards for a TD, force a punt, go ~65 yards for a TD, recover an onside kick, go ~25 yards and kick a long FG. The only realistic way to tie or win the game is by going for 2 and converting 3x. Yes, that is a 6.4% chance but it is better than 0.0%. There isn't enough time for any other scenario.

The numbers change quite a bit at 45% or 50% conversion rates.

40%
36% vs 16%

45%
30.25% vs 20.25%

50%
25% vs 25%

agree with this. The key is lack of time and possessions. Yes converting all three is low but it’s the only shot outside of turnovers. We scored one time in a minute and still ran out of time. But it’s not worth arguing - there are other things to complain about in this game and decision making. I still am baffled what happened at Clemson not taking a timeout quickly.

 

[Scooch]

Or best guess, at 45-21, he had packed it in and wasn't even considering they could come back.

Occam’s razor… this is it. Dino has a weird habit of giving up on games. He gave up on the Wake game and just mindlessly kicked the XP. Everything else is just post game rationalization.

We have ample evidence over 7 seasons that this is something he does.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[OburgOrange]

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[Nahson]

Excited to play BC.

Excited about the new faces who played.

3rd downs were tough on us. Have to get off the field.

No injury updates yet.

Talks about Covid. Says that SU lost assistant coaches during Covid because their kids couldn't play HS football in NY.

Talks about depth. Have to re-evaluate injuries, but most players will come back bigger and stronger.

Dino met with a player at 10 AM today who wants to come back next season (wouldn't give name). Once the season ends and the roster finalizes he'll look at team needs through recruiting / transfer portal.

3-5-5 improved in Year 3. What will this offense look like in Year 3?

Axe asks the JW question (of course he does). Dino doesn't answer.

It’s Tucker. Bet a dollar.

 

[Millhouse]

I listened to the presser and understood what he was saying mathematically. I think I still would have gone for 2 but I get the mathematically reasoning for not. He basically said the odds of getting a 4th possession were better than everything going perfectly with 3 including making all the 2 pointers.

This is so incredibly stupid of babers because these aren't mutually exclusive

You can still get the 4th possession after not getting the 2 point conversions.

 

[Millhouse]

That is baloney. Getting three 2pt conversions is probably just over a 10% chance. With 10 mins left stopping Wake 3x while still having time to score 3x yourself is certainly less than 10%.

If you miss the 1st then you still need 3 possessions, so where is the risk? If you make the 1st and miss the 2nd, you still need 3 possessions. Again where is the risk?

There was 10 mins left, he really thinks we will get 3 possessions to score? We ended up not even having enough time for 2 possessions.

On top of that which is more likely stopping Wake's O 2x or 3x?

this is like all those games where coaches punt because they would need a 3 and out with a short field if they failed but ignore that they need a three and out after they punt

brain damage everywhere

 

[Chip]

You can still get the 4th possession after not getting the 2 point conversions.

He's actually counting on getting it.

It's all so weird. Just trying to get through the interview. May have the staff pull a few more numbers in case SWC asks him this week on the radio.