Don't freakout and this isn't hate speech

[Millhouse]

Like I said, I think we're about to breakout on offense. We're playing good defenses the rest of the way so it may not be a huge jump in YPP. We may see a modest bump or holding steady.

But here's an interesting stat:

2012 vs FBS YPP 1st half of season (5 games): 5.478
2015 vs FBS YPP with Dungey 1st half of season (4 games): 5.85

2012 vs FBS YPP 2nd half of season (6 games): 6.37

I know it's like saying "if we play better, we'll be better" - but I think we're closer on offense than you and GO are alluding to.

EDIT: Do you remove FCS from YPP with us? It actually drags our avg down a bit oddly enough. I think running all 2nd half due to score warps things. I also think our YPP with Dungey is much better than without. Our YPP with would put us at #47.

i don't know how you're calculating our yards per play with dungey

 

[BomberOrange]

lots of people wanted to believe there was some magical red zone efficiency going on early this year.

lo and behold, we're 89th in red zone TD%

we're 75th in yards per play

without the defensive, special teams, and OT touchdowns, they're 94th in scoring. Give them half of those back to them, they're 79th.

people will be less disappointed when they do more than just look at SCOREBOARD. play enough games and your yards per play will tell the story unless you get lucky or unlucky with turnovers and special teams

we're 76th on offense vs fbs and 95th on defense (yards per play) I'm not that impressed considering how dungey is. The defense is actually a smidge better than I expected.

76th and 95th out of 128 should get you 4 wins and 7 losses (FBS). bad fumble luck vs pitt might cost them one of those wins

Does that take into account taking all of the defensive, ST, & OT TD's by all 128 teams?

 

[RF2044]

The switch could come on mid season, the changes they made last week to the offense and defense were positive, but that doesn't change the basic limitations the team has displayed from the start and they still haven't solved the sources of those limitations on either side of the ball. They are also stepping up in class which makes the likelihood of breakthrough harder.

They are going to need to run the table against L'ville and NCState on the road and BC at home.

I think two out of three is doable but they are really going to need to step it up to get all three. Would love to see it, think the individual pieces are there, just think it's a year away, and there is nothing wrong with that, just reality, and that's all I've ever said.

I'm not going to bother responding to your inline comments, given that how you selectivity sampled the thread, and I really don't care much to convince you at this point. Extremely knowledgeable football posters that I respect and pay attention to like CIL, Chip, and Rocco responded to you with all of the same predictions that I made, line item by line item. The term "macro" came from one of your posts, BTW--hence why I referenced it in my last post.

But let's elevate this disagreement. I think it is logical to assume that Dungey's performance will fall, given the upcoming slate. The counter arguement is that it might actually improve or hold steady, now that he has some game experieince under his belt. The season isn't over yet.

That said, I think our chance of making a bowl is essentially over at this point. I see no path to six wins that didn't include UVa. Squandering that, and another winnable game against Pitt, are more than the team can overcome this year. At a similar point of the schedule during 2012 season [post the Rutgers / Cincinnati losses], I didn't think there was any path to a bowl, so I suppose anything can happen.

Like you, I would love to see it. And agree that we are probably one year away. I like what I've seen from Lester's system, and I think that much of the play calling stuff I've disagreed with are more attributable to general inexperience. Here's hoping that he improves with experience, just like Nate Hackett did.

Next year, we'll have:

• Many key principals on offense who are true frosh returning as experienced players
• A returning QB who might be the best we've had in 16 post-McNabb seasons
• 7-9 starters returnign on both sides of the ball
• Improved depth
• A more experienced defensive front 7
• A more experienced OC

The pieces of the puzzle are in place for next year. If there is any more faltering, then Shafer absolutely, unequivocally needs to go.

Tired of losing. I still believe Shafer can turn it around, and don't like the conditions associated with chasing a new coach this year, with SC, Miami, Minn, and several other programs also chasing candidates.

 

[TheCusian]

i don't know how you're calculating our yards per play with dungey

I did that yesterday. I went through the play by play. It's in this garish chart

EDIT: It's kind of in this chart. I went through the play by play to get the breaks in the two halves. I didn't include CMU because he didn't play the whole game and it would make his YPP ridiculous. There's no way the offense maintains a 12.5 YPP.

But 7.2+4.5+5.1+6.5 = 23.3
23.3/4 = 5.85YPP

 

[GoSU96]

I'm not going to bother responding to your inline comments, given that how you selectivity sampled the thread, and I really don't care much to convince you at this point. Extremely knowledgeable football posters that I respect and pay attention to like CIL, Chip, and Rocco responded to you with all of the same predictions that I made, line item by line item. The term "macro" came from one of your posts, BTW--hence why I referenced it in my last post.

But let's elevate this disagreement. I think it is logical to assume that Dungey's performance will fall, given the upcoming slate. The counter arguement is that it might actually improve or hold steady, now that he has some game experieince under his belt. The season isn't over yet.

That said, I think our chance of making a bowl is essentially over at this point. I see no path to six wins that didn't include UVa. Squandering that, and another winnable game against Pitt, are more than the team can overcome this year. At a similar point of the schedule during 2012 season [post the Rutgers / Cincinnati losses], I didn't think there was any path to a bowl, so I suppose anything can happen.

Like you, I would love to see it. And agree that we are probably one year away. I like what I've seen from Lester's system, and I think that much of the play calling stuff I've disagreed with are more attributable to general inexperience. Here's hoping that he improves with experience, just like Nate Hackett did.

Next year, we'll have:

• Many key principals on offense who are true frosh returning as experienced players
• A returning QB who might be the best we've had in 16 post-McNabb seasons
• 7-9 starters returnign on both sides of the ball
• Improved depth
• A more experienced defensive front 7
• A more experienced OC

The pieces of the puzzle are in place for next year. If there is any more faltering, then Shafer absolutely, unequivocally needs to go.

Tired of losing. I still believe Shafer can turn it around, and don't like the conditions associated with chasing a new coach this year, with SC, Miami, Minn, and several other programs also chasing candidates.

I didn't selectively quote anything, I pulled every single one of your posts off of page 1, which is what you cited, and I pulled the whole "macro bit" off of the other thread.

So now in one thread you've falsely accused me of having no idea what I was writing about, hypocrisy, making arguments that I never did, and now dishonestly quoting you.

Well done.

 

[Millhouse]

Does that take into account taking all of the defensive, ST, & OT TD's by all 128 teams?

no. 6 tds that don't come from the offense in regulation is a lot. so i gave a couple different numbers, one where none of those happened and one where 3 of them did.

 

[GoSU96]

Does that take into account taking all of the defensive, ST, & OT TD's by all 128 teams?

Going into last week they were 76th in offensive TD's. Not going to bother to try and figure out the OT stuff.

What I do know is that they have been capped at 24 pts by the offense in regulation all year.

 

[Millhouse]

I did that yesterday. I went through the play by play. It's in this garish chart

EDIT: It's kind of in this chart. I went through the play by play to get the breaks in the two halves. I didn't include CMU because he didn't play the whole game and it would make his YPP ridiculous. There's no way the offense maintains a 12.5 YPP.

But 7.2+4.5+5.1+6.5 = 23.3
23.3/4 = 5.85YPP

the yards per play for the 4 acc games is 5.75.

ten spots difference, not a huge deal. but they had more plays against USF which was their worst game

one thing we can agree on is that wake sucks and their coach is a loser

we would've done better with dungey in the line up but then the dungey only numbers would look worse. part of the reason dungey looks so much better is because he didn't have to play LSU. i wish he had, don't get me wrong

 

[TheCusian]

the yards per play for the 4 acc games is 5.75.

ten spots difference, not a huge deal. but they had more plays against USF which was their worst game

one thing we can agree on is that wake sucks and their coach is a loser

we would've done better with dungey in the line up but then the dungey only numbers would look worse. part of the reason dungey looks so much better is because he didn't have to play LSU. i wish he had, don't get me wrong

What if he'd continued vs CMU? LSU doesn't count, CMU doesn't count.

If you want to roll with ACC only numbers that puts us at 45 vs FBS.

(And I made a mistake before - Dungey's 5.85 YPP would put us at 37 vs FBS.)

 

[Millhouse]

What if he'd continued vs CMU? LSU doesn't count, CMU doesn't count.

If you want to roll with ACC only numbers that puts us at 45 vs FBS.

(And I made a mistake before - Dungey's 5.85 YPP would put us at 37 vs FBS.)

5.85 is wrong though

and why do i keep forgetting that USF is a non conference game. oops

 

[TheCusian]

5.85 is wrong though

and why do i keep forgetting that USF is a non conference game. oops

My fault.

5.75 is good for #40 vs FBS. Which is better than #63 vs FBS.

Mahoney and Wilson are negatively dragging our numbers.

I'd also add that the 6.5YPP vs Pitt is very encouraging moving fwd.

 

[RF2044]

I didn't selectively quote anything, I pulled every single one of your posts off of page 1, which is what you cited, and I pulled the whole "macro bit" off of the other thread.

So now in one thread you've falsely accused me of having no idea what I was writing about, hypocrisy, making arguments that I never did, and now dishonestly quoting you.

Well done.

Childish response, especially coming from the poster who makes more stuff up and posts more false attributions than any other poster on this forum. You need help.

 

[Millhouse]

My fault.

5.75 is good for #40 vs FBS. Which is better than #63 vs FBS.

Mahoney and Wilson are negatively dragging our numbers.

I'd also add that the 6.5YPP vs Pitt is very encouraging moving fwd.

i didn't flip my lid over pitt like other people did. they got 2 of our turnovers and recovered 3 of their fumbles. bad luck. should've been a win. shafer didn't do anything to cost us the game, nothing to melt dwon about.

but if we're going to discard lester's elmworst hybrid offense, we already have one example of him running someone else's offense, that didn't go so great.

it's just hard for me to get to his 14th game and start projecting too much off on the 14th one

CMU was back when they didn't know who should run the ball. lester throws in so many variables and different reasons why they struggle in so many games, i just think it's best to look at all of it. otherwise you just get to the 10 minutes where he did all the stuff i wanted him to do all along with no reason to think that it'll be how it is going forward

 

[GoSU96]

Childish response, especially coming from the poster who makes more stuff up and posts more false attributions than any other poster on this forum. You need help.

So unfounded allegations are the okay but pointing those out in response is childish, got it.

Want to point out all this made up stuff and false attributions?

 

[TheCusian]

i didn't flip my lid over pitt like other people did. they got 2 of our turnovers and recovered 3 of their fumbles. bad luck. should've been a win. shafer didn't do anything to cost us the game, nothing to melt dwon about. but if we're going to discard lester's elmworst hybrid offense, we already have one example of him running someone else's offense, that didn't go so great. it's just hard for me to get to his 14th game and start projecting too much off on the 14th one CMU was back when they didn't know who should run the ball. lester throws in so many variables and different reasons why they struggle in so many games, i just think it's best to look at all of it. otherwise you just get to the 10 minutes where he did all the stuff i wanted him to do all along with no reason to think that it'll be how it is going forward

Just because he's moving away from running the hybrids doesn't mean it's not his offense. One year they had a stud RB and ran a ton. Another year they threw it a bunch. I'm not digging way down and throwing out the stuff I don't like. There's a gap between Dungey and the rest of the QB's. Including those YPP are not indicative of our YPP with him playing.

 

[Millhouse]

Just because he's moving away from running the hybrids doesn't mean it's not his offense. One year they had a stud RB and ran a ton. Another year they threw it a bunch.

I'm not digging way down and throwing out the stuff I don't like. There's a gap between Dungey and the rest of the QB's. Including those YPP are not delectable of our YPP with him playing.

if they're moving away from hybrids, you should be upset, because you used to think they were a great idea.

 

[GoSU96]

if they're moving away from hybrids, you should be upset, because you used to think they were a great idea.

I think he's figuring out that an in completion is better than a 5 yd loss.

Until they can get the other stuff reliably blocked long developing plays aren't a great idea.

 

[TheCusian]

if they're moving away from hybrids, you should be upset, because you used to think they were a great idea.

I'm not married to the system. *cough*cough*excuse me* I just want a good offense.

And I think before they were going 70% slot, 25% RB, 5% TE with that position. Now it's like 80% slot, 20% RB (but in the Pitt game they ran routes from the back field). Hybrids still hybrid - just passing to them more, probably because Dungey is such a good passer. If bet with Hunt, we'd be running more with them.

 

[RF2044]

So unfounded allegations are the okay but pointing those out in response is childish, got it.

Want to point out all this made up stuff and false attributions?

What's childish was your passive aggressive temper tantrum to the post I made a few messages ago, attempting to engage you in a civil discussion [which is the same knee jerk defensive crap you pulled on the first page of this thread, when numerous posters RESPECTFULLY disagreed with the validity of your analysis].

What's also childish is how belligerently combative you react whenever anyone expresses a different point of view than your own. Go back and read all of my posts on the first two pages--really read them, and see whether or not I was unreasonable before you came at me with your characteristic knee jerk overreaction.

Even more childish is your congenital incapability to even consider a different point of view beyond what you already decided in advance is true. I swear, one of the things that drives me most nuts about this board is the intractable positions people take. Most posters are reasonable, and have no problem changing their opinion based upon changing circumstances and new information. Some aren't, and refuse to acknowledge any context that doesn't fit their need for confirmatory bias.

As for researching your numerous false attributions, no thanks, spending hours combing through the archives is more your style. I get the impression that you do it intentionally, but honestly--who cares? I did get a kick out of you mispresenting my support of Shafer and McF***kit recently, though. If I were so inclined, it wouldn't be difficult to find more; the trail of hyperbole you leave in your wake is thick.

It was childish if ME to get drawn in. I should have honestly gone back to doing what I've done since the middle of the Marrone era--not paying attention to your rhetoric--and just tuned you out earlier in this thead after you made this gem of a post: "Bunch of ears in the fingers, na, na, na, na, here" -- a clear sign that an intelligent dialogue would be impossible.

 

[GoSU96]

What's childish was your passive aggressive temper tantrum to the post I made a few messages ago, attempting to engage you in a civil discussion [which is the same knee jerk defensive crap you pulled on the first page of this thread, when numerous posters RESPECTFULLY disagreed with the validity of your analysis].

What's also childish is how belligerently combative you react whenever anyone expresses a different point of view than your own. Go back and read all of my posts on the first two pages--really read them, and see whether or not I was unreasonable before you came at me with your characteristic knee jerk overreaction.

Even more childish is your congenital incapability to even consider a different point of view beyond what you already decided in advance is true. I swear, one of the things that drives me most nuts about this board is the intractable positions people take. Most posters are reasonable, and have no problem changing their opinion based upon changing circumstances and new information. Some aren't, and refuse to acknowledge any context that doesn't fit their need for confirmatory bias.

As for researching your numerous false attributions, no thanks, spending hours combing through the archives is more your style. I get the impression that you do it intentionally, but honestly--who cares? I did get a kick out of you mispresenting my support of Shafer and McF***kit recently, though. If I were so inclined, it wouldn't be difficult to find more; the trail of hyperbole you leave in your wake is thick.

It was childish if ME to get drawn in. I should have honestly gone back to doing what I've done since the middle of the Marrone era--not paying attention to your rhetoric--and just tuned you out earlier in this thead after you made this gem of a post: "Bunch of ears in the fingers, na, na, na, na, here" -- a clear sign that an intelligent dialogue would be impossible.

This is how you started off your attempt at "civil discussion",

"I'm not going to bother responding to your inline comments, given that how you selectivity sampled the thread, and I really don't care much to convince you at this point."

 

[Cusefan78]

This is how you started off your attempt at "civil discussion",

"I'm not going to bother responding to your inline comments, given that how you selectivity sampled the thread, and I really don't care much to convince you at this point."

You're like a rabid animal. Just keep coming and coming with your view. We all get it, shafer fired, he's an idiot, can't coach, Marrone was perfect, bring in someone else. Yes we get it, but Jesus you have burned your thoughts repeatedly into this forum. Can't you just calm down till the end of the season. One thing we all can pretty much guarantee is that shafer isn't getting fired mid season. Let's just move on to the next game then you can come back Monday and pick away at any mistakes for a week straight. And we will keep repeating this over and over again for the next 5 weeks. Is there a block button anywhere!!!

 

[RF2044]

This is how you started off your attempt at "civil discussion",

"I'm not going to bother responding to your inline comments, given that how you selectivity sampled the thread, and I really don't care much to convince you at this point."

Real imflammatory. :noidea:

That must have been where you stopped reading, because the next paragraph started off reading: "But let's elevate this disagreement..." before laying out some objective observations that weren't pointed in any way, shape, or form. Which you would have seen for yourself if you'd bothered to read it instead of deciding in advance what the tone was.

For the record--"inline comments" referred to the line item responses you made in the quoted section of the post I was responding to. It wasn't some insult, if that's how you took it.

 

[orange79]

You're like a rabid animal. Just keep coming and coming with your view. We all get it, shafer fired, he's an idiot, can't coach, Marrone was perfect, bring in someone else. Yes we get it, but Jesus you have burned your thoughts repeatedly into this forum. Can't you just calm down till the end of the season. One thing we all can pretty much guarantee is that shafer isn't getting fired mid season. Let's just move on to the next game then you can come back Monday and pick away at any mistakes for a week straight. And we will keep repeating this over and over again for the next 5 weeks. Is there a block button anywhere!!!

Well, actually, there is.

 

[Cusefan78]

Well, actually, there is.

Thank god. Wait are you blocking little old me

 

[GoSU96]

You're like a rabid animal. Just keep coming and coming with your view. We all get it, shafer fired, he's an idiot, can't coach, Marrone was perfect, bring in someone else. Yes we get it, but Jesus you have burned your thoughts repeatedly into this forum. Can't you just calm down till the end of the season. One thing we all can pretty much guarantee is that shafer isn't getting fired mid season. Let's just move on to the next game then you can come back Monday and pick away at any mistakes for a week straight. And we will keep repeating this over and over again for the next 5 weeks. Is there a block button anywhere!!!

Shafer fired, he's an idiot? Where do you get that from?

Good lord, I've said consistently since September that this year is nothing but a scrimmage for next year, how does that in anyway imply I want Shafer fired or that I think he's an idiot?

I've never said he can't coach, ever, not once, period. Picked at mistakes? When did that happen?

Two things I've taken issue with Shafer, his sideline demeanor early in 2013, I thought it was way over the top, and Macdonald. That's it.

I've also never once said Marrone is perfect.