Feb 26 - Feb 29 Tracking the Bubble + Games

[jncuse]

Crap, I don't have CBSSN anymore. I saw it was 77-74 with a minute to go.

Let's go Davidson. I don't know how much people remember from 2016, but I remember late one night in A-10 tourney, Davidson knocked out St. Bonaventure. And it likely cost them there bid.

 

[bpo57]

There will be some interesting outliers this year.

The great conference record in a P5, but very little good - Nebraska
The terrible RPI with lots of good - Oklahoma St.

Don't want to test either, and hope they both lose their next game.

And don't forget the 9th place occupant of a very down P-12. Somehow that's not supposed to matter.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Bonnies down by 1 with 2:45 left in OT

Tied up at 2:00

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Jalen Adams 3

87-84 with 1:30

 

[jncuse]

So the bubble is 2-3 so far tonight. Overall very positive.

And while I believe Oklahoma didn't do us any favours tonight, it does create a game they really need to win this weekend (at Home vs Iowa St).

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Davidson 2 FT's

87-86

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Trading 3's

Bonnies up 90-89

41.8 seconds

Timeout

 

[pearl31]

god i hate the bonnies coach
god i hate the bonnies

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Bonnies miss and get rebound

10.5 seconds

Shooting FT's

Timeout.

 

[bpo57]

6-8 in quad 1, including road wins at USC, Wichita St, and TCU and a win vs Kansas. Not only quantity of Q1 wins but high quality that other bubble teams do not have.
No bad losses.
Body of Work, not last 10 or last 12

I think Oklahoma is fine, as long as they win one more game to avoid a bad loss (at Home vs Iowa St should be it)

One other point on OU. I seem to have read that road wins and neutral site wins are highly valued by the Committee. OU has lost their last nine road games.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Taqqee makes 1-2 FT's

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Davidson misses layup

Shooting FT's

3 seconds

91-89

 

[jncuse]

And don't forget the 9th place occupant of a very down P-12. Somehow that's not supposed to matter.

And don't forget Nebraska's SOS of 106... Middle Tennessee St, Western Kentucky, St. Bonaventure and Buffalo all had harder schedules (Based on what they will look at anyway).

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Davidson makes 2 FT's

91-91

Timeout

3.2 left.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Headed to 2 OT

 

[bpo57]

And don't forget Nebraska's SOS of 106... Middle Tennessee St, Western Kentucky, St. Bonaventure and Buffalo all had harder schedules (Based on what they will look at anyway).

Generally speaking I prefer teams that win games, particularly when they go 13-5 in a power conference with three of their losses on the road against the top three teams in the standings. I'm not big on the participation trophy approach of rewarding teams that lose a lot of games because they play a supposedly tough schedule. When a team (ASU) is in 9th place in a weak league yet are expected to be seeded ahead of a team (USC) that has a 4.5 game lead on them then that's a joke.

 

[pearl31]

One other point on OU. I seem to have read that road wins and neutral site wins are highly valued by the Committee. OU has lost their last nine road games.

cuz once a team reaches 9 straight road losses anything they did before that is erased

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Bonnies 93-91 4:00

96-91 3:30

96-94 3:00

 

[OrangeXtreme]

96-96 2:30

Bonnies 99-96 2:00

Trading turnovers 1:45

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Jalen Adams fouls out w/34 points. Bad call (wasn't on him)

1:24

99-98

 

[jncuse]

Generally speaking I prefer teams that win games, particularly when they go 13-5 in a power conference with three of their losses on the road against the top three teams in the standings. I'm not big on the participation trophy approach of rewarding teams that lose a lot of games because they play a supposedly tough schedule. When a team (ASU) is in 9th place in a weak league yet are expected to be seeded ahead of a team (USC) that has a 4.5 game lead on them then that's a joke.

Nebraska and Arizona St both have 9 losses Using KP, the SOS is even (Arizona St 60/Nebraska 64). so it's basically a draw up to this point. **

**Unfortunately for Nebraska fans, the committee is more likely to rely on the SOS derived from RPI, rather than something much better like the above. (Per RPI - Arizona St SOS = 57, Nebraska = 106)

So let's say it is still a draw. Arizona St. had quality wins, that Nebraska didn't. And those better wins can be even be easily identified by the eye test. You don't need data to tell you that Xavier and Kansas are better wins than Nebraska has.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Bonnies miss

51 seconds

 

[bpo57]

cuz once a team reaches 9 straight road losses anything they did before that is erased

No but it should matter quite a bit. Seems like you want to emphasize some things but not others and for some teams and not others.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Davidson turnover

Bonnies to the line

30.4 seconds

1-2 FT's

100-98

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Davidson to the line

19.2 seconds

2-2 FT's

100-100