Friendly Reminder

[jncuse]

I don't think we HAVE to win one more. I thought going into the last three we either needed Duke, Louisville or two. We got Duke, so I think we're squarely on the bubble if we lose out (50/50ish). If we win one more, we've got at least a 90% shot of making the tournament.

There is zero chance we are anywhere close to 50/50 if we lose out.

While I have said several times the RPI does not matter if "it's within reason", an RPI of 99 is not within reason.

We have quality wins which is outstanding. But we have less road wins than most, more bad losses than most, a non conference SOS that is not great. Other than bad losses those are all primary indicators used to assess the bubble teams.

 

[jncuse]

I agree.

If Duke was our last win of the year - we'll be in the NIT. On the flip side - a win Sunday or 1 win in the ACCT ( most likely Miami or VaTech) will get us in. Gotta go 1-1.

I respect JDubs as he follows this pretty deeply as well. I think one win is more likely than not, but not much more than that yet.

My problem with only win is that we may be on the good side of the bubble but we are still in the discussion. And that brings in Committee Judgment, Inconsistency and Error.

 

[MSOrange]

Syracuse continues Jekyll and Hyde season following blowout loss

 

[bpo57]

Just for the record, no team has ever received an at large bid with 15 losses. And in the last 25 years only one team with 14 losses got an at-large invite.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

In the words of Mary-Chapin Carpenter ...

"Sometimes you're the windshield, sometimes you're the bug ...

"Sometimes you're a Louisville Slugger, sometimes you're the ball ..."

I thought that was Dire Straits.

 

[jncuse]

That's probably about right although at that point I'd peg our chances at more like 40/60. Finishing 17-15 with both a poor OOC and road resume would be dangerous. Not to mention GT would probably sneak ahead of us by virtue of their two victories over us. I know one thing, if we go 17-15 and get left out there will be no whining from me about how we got jobbed. We would deserve the snub.

It's about 3/97

 

[jncuse]

So you guys won't watch Selection Sunday if we lose out?

Or you admit we wouldn't be "done?"

I would watch Selection Sunday because I follow the bubble as an NCAA fan as much as a Syracuse fan. But I would certainly not be expecting Syracuse's name to pop up. Last year I had some hope.

 

[Cowtown]

I thought that was Dire Straits.

Correct, he wrote it, she covered it.

 

[jncuse]

At 17-15 all it would take is a conference tourney upset or two that leads to a stolen bid and then we'd be toast. At that point there is no margin for error.

The A-10 and AAC are concerns for sure.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

I would watch Selection Sunday because I follow the bubble as an NCAA fan as much as a Syracuse fan. But I would certainly not be expecting Syracuse's name to pop up. Last year I had some hope.

I don't have to watch. I'll wait for the leaked brackets to come out.

 

[bpo57]

The A-10 and AAC are concerns for sure.

Agreed. A little further down the list are the MVC and C-USA. I think MTSU can get a bid if their only loss from here is in the title game. I admit I could be wrong though as the deck is often stacked against the little guy.

 

[jncuse]

I mean I'd obviously be nervous going in, but I'd still think we were in the 50-50 range. Maybe 40-60 or 60-40, depending on what other teams did down the stretch. But when you go .500 in the best conference in the country (BY FAR), beat three top-10 teams and your struggles were early in the year, you've almost always got a shot.

1. Virginia is about a 5 seed right now. So it's not a top 10 victory.
2. Duke is a 4 seed right now. It's not likely going to end up a top 10 victory. Not to say neither is a great victory, but they may not be top 10 great.
3. It doesn't matter when you struggle every game is worth the same.

 

[cuse522]

This is a really weak bubble... Here are some bubble teams stats off the NCAA's Team Sheets through yesterday. I'm adding in our loss today. IMO if we lose out and everyone else basically holds about where they're at in terms of strength of resume, we still have a decent shot to get in. Our record against the top 50 and those resume wins are tough to ignore, and it really comes down to what the committee prioritizes. If this committee prioritizes those, we're probably in already. If they prioritize road record, we're in a world of hurt.

Syracuse 17-13
Vs. Top 50: 6-7
RPI: 76 (should hold pretty steady)
Strength of Schedule: 58 (should go up)

Wake Forest 16-12
Vs. Top 50: 1-9
RPI: 43
SOS: 25

Georgia Tech 15-12
Vs. Top 50: 4-6
RPI: 96
Strength of Schedule: 62

TCU 16-12
Vs. Top 50: 2-10
RPI: 60
Strength of Schedule: 24

Seton Hall 18-10
Vs. Top 50: 3-6
RPI: 49
Strength of Schedule: 50

Illinois State 24-5
Vs. Top 50: 1-1
RPI: 34
Strength of Schedule: 147

Kansas St. 17-12
Vs. Top 50: 3-8
RPI: 69
Strength of Schedule: 55

 

[jncuse]

Agreed. A little further down the list are the MVC and C-USA. I think MTSU can get a bid if their only loss from here is in the title game. I admit I could be wrong though as the deck is often stacked against the little guy.

I agree on MTSU. They are certainly no lock as an at-large but they add to the discussion if they lose. In my view Wichite St is a lock as an at large so they need to win the MVC tourney.

I only expect it to be 1 in the end based on probabilities.

 

[Chip]

Agree with all of that. Nothing has changed but today's performance just underscores the serious weaknesses that this team has and why it's difficult to get bullish about what lays ahead in March.

Bullish to me for this team is get to round 2. We are what our record says we are. If all the streaky players got hot at the same time, then things get interesting. But that's something every team can say.

Watching this team play is incredible frustrating just because of all the offensive rebounds they give up. It's dead guy rebounding. But watching the offensive game maturity of Battle and Thompson as well as the occasional Gillon out of his mind game keep it interesting at the same time.

 

[bpo57]

This is a really weak bubble... Here are some bubble teams stats off the NCAA's Team Sheets through yesterday. I'm adding in our loss today. IMO if we lose out and everyone else basically holds about where they're at in terms of strength of resume, we still have a decent shot to get in. Our record against the top 50 and those resume wins are tough to ignore, and it really comes down to what the committee prioritizes. If this committee prioritizes those, we're probably in already. If they prioritize road record, we're in a world of hurt.

Syracuse 17-13
Vs. Top 50: 6-7
RPI: 76 (should hold pretty steady)
Strength of Schedule: 58 (should go up)

Wake Forest 16-12
Vs. Top 50: 1-9
RPI: 43
SOS: 25

Georgia Tech 15-12
Vs. Top 50: 4-6
RPI: 96
Strength of Schedule: 62

TCU 16-12
Vs. Top 50: 2-10
RPI: 60
Strength of Schedule: 24

Seton Hall 18-10
Vs. Top 50: 3-6
RPI: 49
Strength of Schedule: 50

Illinois State 24-5
Vs. Top 50: 1-1
RPI: 34
Strength of Schedule: 147

Kansas St. 17-12
Vs. Top 50: 3-8
RPI: 69
Strength of Schedule: 55

Well at 17-15 we'd make history with a bid.

 

[CaptainJ]

I thought that was Dire Straits.

That's the Sultans of Swing, not Swat. (which I am about to get back to, like Fab Melo at the rim, after being temporarily jolted by some antics). Anyhow, great call to sneak that in there.

 

[cuse522]

1. Virginia is about a 5 seed right now. So it's not a top 10 victory.
2. Duke is a 4 seed right now. It's not likely going to end up a top 10 victory. Not to say neither is a great victory, but they may not be top 10 great.
3. It doesn't matter when you struggle every game is worth the same.

Those may not be top 10 RPI victories at the end of the year, but in terms of where those teams were ranked when we played them in the polls, they were top 10 wins and people are talking about it... As for every game being the same, I don't buy it. It may not be an official criteria, but I have to believe the committee is discussing "who's hot," among the bubble teams. In terms of who is proving they can beat tournament caliber teams right now, I think they consider it.

 

[cuse522]

Well at 17-15 we'd make history with a bid.

This is an historically weak bubble.

 

[bpo57]

I agree on MTSU. They are certainly no lock as an at-large but they add to the discussion if they lose. In my view Wichite St is a lock as an at large so they need to win the MVC tourney.

I only expect it to be 1 in the end based on probabilities.

I can see both Wich State and Ill State getting bids if they play each other in the title game. That's as much about the weakness of the bubble than it is about those two teams.

 

[CaptainJ]

Well at 17-15 we'd make history with a bid.

While this is true, and I am too unsure to put a lot of energy into it, there are always firsts. Right? Someone has to do what was formerly thought of as impossible, and how many teams with that record have beaten 3 top 10 teams and gone .500 in the best conference in basketball?

Fortunately, I think a lot of time is being wasted on speculation of something that won't happen(anyone want to wager me on it, straight up odds?).

 

[Moontan]

I think we still have to beat GT and win a game in the ACC tourney to get in.

Agreed, or lose to GA Tech and win 3 in the ACC tournament.

 

[Ish88888]

We either have to win against GT or win an ACCT game. Losing both would be tantamount to russian roulette where we're at the mercy of conference tournament play. One or two bids get stolen and then we're on the outside looking in.

As of today, palm has us as last 4 in playing RI in Dayton. I think Lunardi has us more solid but he lost alot of cred with me after calling UCLA a 4 seed

Agreed, or lose to GA Tech and win 3 in the ACC tournament.

Lol, yes, that would be a crazy path, but possible. Thing is, this team sucks away from the dome like no other team ever has.

 

[bpo57]

This is an historically weak bubble.

Let's put it this way - if we're sitting at 17-15 I'd like to place a wager with you that SU does not make the tourney. That way at least I'll profit from the inevitable bad news. Sound like a plan?

 

[Col. Bleep]

An interesting factor next Saturday is that Georgia Tech may also be playing (or think it's playing) for a tournament bid.

It's time for Orange Vengeance.