FSU vs The ACC

[sutomcat]

As myself and others have stated here, the mighty GOR wasn't so mighty after all.

I don't see how anyone can come to that conclusion.

1) The only thing we know for sure is that Clemson and FSU made a proposal where they get more money and the length GOR gets reduced.

2) If the other ACC schools vote yes on this (and it appears it has to be unanimous), IMHO the driver for them is fear that ESPN will opt out of their contract with the ACC in 2026 (which I believe has to be done by February of 2025) unless they vote yes.

Clemson and FSU making another proposal that asks what they have been demanding for years should not be a surprise.

If something changed, I think it is that ESPN decided it was better to give FSU and Clemson some extra money to guarantee the ACC stays together through the length of the GOR. This is something I suspect the other ACC schools could live with.

If the other ACC schools agree to shortening the GOR to 2030, IMHO, it is because they prefer a guaranteed source of income through 2030 to a source of income through 2036 that can be ended in 2026 if ESPN feels like doing this.

It should be noted that a number of conference insiders like David Hale are saying this proposal has no chance of getting accepted.

It should be noted that the same people who knew the GOR was weak and would get crushed in court are the same people who are sure this proposal is going to get accepted any day now and FSU and Clemson will get everything they want.

I could see where something like this could happen but if it does, it isn't because the GOR was weak. Now, there are what 5 lawsuits left right now undecided on ACC vs FSU/Clemson.

Maybe all the legal experts are wrong, and when you sign a long term contract, take your money for decades and get what you paid for, then change your mind and want out of the contract because you decided it was a bad deal, it is perfectly fine.

I will be the first to apologize to you Kirb if the courts find the GOR null and void.

My money is on hundreds of years of law and precendents.

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

So, let's say that Clemson & Fla State leave. Would re-recruiting Maryland and Rutgers be feasible? Those would be pretty good fill-ins IMO - state schools, fill in the map, a couple research universities. Only if you can't get both of those do you ask UConn and/or West Virginia.

Buyouts would be too big. I don't think those two would be that big of a loss its the other schools that would want to join them. But that would put the Big Ten and SEC at 20 teams.

One got Texas and OU and the other got the best of the Pac 12 and an entire time zone. The ACC is a distant third and struggles to have anyone ranked in the top 10. The 2 programs that have shown any pulse in the playoffs are collapsing rapidly. Why on earth would they want more mouths to feed especially schools with the ability to get good and challenge the top. Clemson and FSU might struggle in the SEC but they would step in and become Ohio State and Michigan automatically.

Of course the SEC and Big Ten want as many playoff bids as possible in theory but realistically do they want/need more than 4 a year each? Quarterfinal conference matchups between conference members? SEC getting 5 is going to happen and people will be pissed. Why give up a spot to FSU or Clemson?

8 SEC/Big Ten teams
3 ACC/Big 12
1 G5
+ND some years

Why do the SEC and Big Ten need or want to destroy the Big 12 and ACC again and what is their gain? Other than a total dissolution of the NCAA that would risk everything I don't see any upside.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

based on this chart profit margins for ESPN drop significantly the last 6 years of the contract. Does this take into account the new TX and CA viewers?

It is an FSU guy’s estimate and he has the ACCN going down every year.

 

[kcsu]

I don't see how anyone can come to that conclusion.

1) The only thing we know for sure is that Clemson and FSU made a proposal where they get more money and the length GOR gets reduced.

2) If the other ACC schools vote yes on this (and it appears it has to be unanimous), IMHO the driver for them is fear that ESPN will opt out of their contract with the ACC in 2026 (which I believe has to be done by February of 2025) unless they vote yes.

Clemson and FSU making another proposal that asks what they have been demanding for years should not be a surprise.

If something changed, I think it is that ESPN decided it was better to give FSU and Clemson some extra money to guarantee the ACC stays together through the length of the GOR. This is something I suspect the other ACC schools could live with.

If the other ACC schools agree to shortening the GOR to 2030, IMHO, it is because they prefer a guaranteed source of income through 2030 to a source of income through 2036 that can be ended in 2026 if ESPN feels like doing this.

It should be noted that a number of conference insiders like David Hale are saying this proposal has no chance of getting accepted.

It should be noted that the same people who knew the GOR was weak and would get crushed in court are the same people who are sure this proposal is going to get accepted any day now and FSU and Clemson will get everything they want.

I could see where something like this could happen but if it does, it isn't because the GOR was weak. Now, there are what 5 lawsuits left right now undecided on ACC vs FSU/Clemson.

Maybe all the legal experts are wrong, and when you sign a long term contract, take your money for decades and get what you paid for, then change your mind and want out of the contract because you decided it was a bad deal, it is perfectly fine.

I will be the first to apologize to you Kirb if the courts find the GOR null and void.

My money is on hundreds of years of law and precendents.

spot on. Anyone with a subscription to the Athletic should read todays article this. I doubt that the deal gets done unless it is something that applies to every member. Meaning if Syracuse gets good ratings they also are paid in accordance with the deal. I also doubt that the term is reduced.

 

[orangecuse]

I don't see how anyone can come to that conclusion.

1) The only thing we know for sure is that Clemson and FSU made a proposal where they get more money and the length GOR gets reduced.

2) If the other ACC schools vote yes on this (and it appears it has to be unanimous), IMHO the driver for them is fear that ESPN will opt out of their contract with the ACC in 2026 (which I believe has to be done by February of 2025) unless they vote yes.

Clemson and FSU making another proposal that asks what they have been demanding for years should not be a surprise.

If something changed, I think it is that ESPN decided it was better to give FSU and Clemson some extra money to guarantee the ACC stays together through the length of the GOR. This is something I suspect the other ACC schools could live with.

If the other ACC schools agree to shortening the GOR to 2030, IMHO, it is because they prefer a guaranteed source of income through 2030 to a source of income through 2036 that can be ended in 2026 if ESPN feels like doing this.

It should be noted that a number of conference insiders like David Hale are saying this proposal has no chance of getting accepted.

It should be noted that the same people who knew the GOR was weak and would get crushed in court are the same people who are sure this proposal is going to get accepted any day now and FSU and Clemson will get everything they want.

I could see where something like this could happen but if it does, it isn't because the GOR was weak. Now, there are what 5 lawsuits left right now undecided on ACC vs FSU/Clemson.

Maybe all the legal experts are wrong, and when you sign a long term contract, take your money for decades and get what you paid for, then change your mind and want out of the contract because you decided it was a bad deal, it is perfectly fine.

I will be the first to apologize to you Kirb if the courts find the GOR null and void.

My money is on hundreds of years of law and precendents.

That's interesting.

It has been argued, somewhat emphatically here, that ESPN is embedded as a major benefactor in this "sweetheart" type deal. That their deal with the ACC is well below the alleged market value. So, why would ESPN opt out in 2026 and give up such a profit maker for them, especially, if the GOR is as Iron Clad as alleged? Wouldn't they just stay put, not opt out, continue to reap their significant profits and (due to the plaintiffs extremely alleged weak position, et al) let the disgruntled remain disgruntled until the plaintiffs (along with other obvious players not currently litigating) inevitably bolt down the road (2030 range or thereabouts anyways) when the GOR doesn't carry as much financial weight? Therefore, if indeed the case, not a good financial reason to throw them any bone at all?

 

[kcsu]

That's interesting.

It has been argued somewhat emphatically here that ESPN is embedded as a major benefactor in this "sweetheart" type deal. That their deal with the ACC is well below the alleged market value. So, why would ESPN opt out in 2026 and give up such a profit maker for them, especially, if the GOR is as Iron Clad as alleged? Wouldn't they just stay put, not opt out, continue to reap their significant profits and (due to the plaintiffs extremely alleged weak position, et al) let the disgruntled remain disgruntled until they inevitably bolt down the road (2030 range or thereabouts anyways) when the GOR doesn't carry as much financial weight?

You are correct. If you look at the revenue/distribution chart that Tom posted the next 6 years are extremely profitable for ESPN. However, after 2030 their margins decrease significantly unless the chart doesn't take into effect the additional revenue as a result of the Tx and CA markets. Also, every school other than the new additions will be receiving a disproportionate share of the distributions.
Bottom line the current deal without any additional concessions by ESPN or any new revenue through other sponsorships and creative partnerships places the ACC in a solid third position. One that will enable it to raid the Big 12 when their deal is up for renewal.

 

[Consigliere]

Viewership based distribution is a stupid concept and will blow up the conference within years. Distribution based on wins and success has a chance of working and at least passes a basic logic test.

Greed is killing this sport and there’s no one minding the shop

I think the viewership based distribution is really a stretch argument. It's at best a secondary factor in driving conference revenue. Higher viewership numbers give the networks an opportunity to charge higher advertising rates for the product, but the money that is sent to the conference is driven by the contract that is already in place. If you want to use viewership numbers, go back to when the contracts were signed.
The other component for network revenue comes from carriage rates, especially those pertaining to the ACCN. And instate carriage rates are much higher than out of state. Factor that into the equation and a school in NY brings much more to the table than one in SC.

 

[orangecuse]

You are correct. If you look at the revenue/distribution chart that Tom posted the next 6 years are extremely profitable for ESPN. However, after 2030 their margins decrease significantly unless the chart doesn't take into effect the additional revenue as a result of the Tx and CA markets. Also, every school other than the new additions will be receiving a disproportionate share of the distributions.
Bottom line the current deal without any additional concessions by ESPN or any new revenue through other sponsorships and creative partnerships places the ACC in a solid third position. One that will enable it to raid the Big 12 when their deal is up for renewal.

Right. And, as their margins decrease significantly, the plaintiff's (as well as the other Flagship current non parties, etc.) financial risks decrease significantly as well. I'm not convinced in the least that after the aforementioned Flagships inevitably have also bolted, that the ACC will be the raiders. Perhaps, the remaining ACC schools (that don't get in the SEC or B1G) flock to the Big 12 or they decide to merge.

 

[Hoo's That]

{snip

Question 2: If/when the ACC goes kaput, where do these items go? I would think that FSU & UNC are Big 10 bound and one never knows what ND would do. If (a big IF) they were to join after the ACC blows up, they most certainly would join Big 10. So, it would seem that the most valuable pieces would move to Fox..

{snip}

If the ACC implodes, ND will remain independent in FB for as long as they have a route to the playoff. They will gladly trade topping out in the 5 v. 12 game for their independence. They would probably take their Olympic sports to the Big East. ND basically has 3 alumni population centers, both coasts and Chicago. Playing in the Big East would give their Olympic sports teams much of the same exposure that playing in the ACC does.

 

[BlazeOrange]

After checking their Twitter trolling of FSU, I'm starting to warm up to having Cal in the conference.
x.com

 

[shantydaze]

There are a lot of unknowns between today and 2030 in terms of distribution and revenue related to sporting events. Will the cable/satellite model die? If so, this will hurt the ACC the most out of the P5 conferences as it has the most small(er) private schools. Less alumni = less people willing to pay for a streaming service or services to watch their alma maters.

In the next six to 12 years, we could also see declining popularity in college sports in general and football specifically. Will unregulated NIL and transfers kill the golden goose that is college sports? Will concussions and fear of long-term effects of playing football cause it to become less popular or, as players inch closer and closer to becoming employees, create liability issues for schools?

I am not going to hold my breath that the sport of football is going to lose its stranglehold on the American psyche or that basketball is going to supplant football as the more popular sport, but I also would never have foreseen the breakup of the Pac-12 five years ago either.

 

[WoadBlue]

There are a lot of unknowns between today and 2030 in terms of distribution and revenue related to sporting events. Will the cable/satellite model die? If so, this will hurt the ACC the most out of the P5 conferences as it has the most small(er) private schools. Less alumni = less people willing to pay for a streaming service or services to watch their alma maters.

In the next six to 12 years, we could also see declining popularity in college sports in general and football specifically. Will unregulated NIL and transfers kill the golden goose that is college sports? Will concussions and fear of long-term effects of playing football cause it to become less popular or, as players inch closer and closer to becoming employees, create liability issues for schools?

I am not going to hold my breath that the sport of football is going to lose its stranglehold on the American psyche or that basketball is going to supplant football as the more popular sport, but I also would never have foreseen the breakup of the Pac-12 five years ago either.

Your opening paragraph is the reason that Wake is a much bigger liability than to was even 10 years ago. If a wake can be replaced with a large state flagship and/or land grant with a decent football history, the ACC gets stronger.

 

[TerryD]

I think my ideal woudl be an enlarged Big Ten where there are divisions of 4-6 teams. So we would be with some combo of Notre Dame, Penn State, BC, Rutgers, Maryland, Pitt. I think for tradition five makes the most sense which would have SU, ND, PSU, BC, RU.

ND is not going to join the Big Ten.

People keep saying that it might, but everything that it has done lately (New NBC deal, favorable indy bonus playoff deal, adding Cal/Stanford/SMU to ACC) says the opposite.

Big Ten people thought ND might budge when USC joined and both USC and the Big Ten put on a full court press in the summer of 2022. Flug predicted that ND was "on the clock".

Nope.

ND has been doing everything that it can for over thirty four years (NBC deal, partial Big East membership, partial ACC membership, etc...) to stay out of the clutches of the Big Ten.

From ND's perspective, joining the Big Ten is its worst case scenario regarding conference realignment, among likely/realistic options.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

ND is not going to join the Big Ten.

People keep saying that it might, but everything that it has done lately (New NBC deal, favorable playoff deal, adding Cal/Stanford/SMU to ACC) says the opposite.

Big Ten people thought ND might budge when USC joined and both USC and the Big Ten put on a full court press in the summer of 2022. Flug predicted that ND was "on the clock".

Nope.

ND has been doing everything that it can for thirty years (NBC deal, partial Big East membership, partial ACC membership) to stay out of the clutches of the Big Ten.

From ND's perspective, joining the Big Ten is the worst case scenario regarding conference realignment, among likely/realistic options.

If ND is shutout of the playoff they have no choice. That would happen if the B18 and SEC expand further.

 

[TerryD]

If ND is shutout of the playoff they have no choice. That would happen if the B18 and SEC expand further.

Make that happen first in real life, then sure. Talking about this remote possibility right now is simply "future tripping", not reality.

Besides, the networks are not going to let ND be shut out of the playoffs. That is a message board pipe dream.

 

[kcsu]

If ND is shutout of the playoff they have no choice. That would happen if the B18 and SEC expand further.

The new playoff set up ensures that ND has a clear path as an Independent

 

[elimunelson]

Make that happen first in real life, then sure. Talking about this remote possibility right now is simply "future tripping", not reality.

Besides, the networks are not going to let ND be shut out of the playoffs. That is a message board pipe dream.

I love how people play the game of thrones with ND being "left out". It's so brain dead a thought.

ND will never be left out of any future of college football. I can say it slower and backwards. If they have to move to a conference they'll do it but it'll be on their terms and timing. Any conference would change every single bylaw to get them into the fold so they hold all the cards. Which is why I always contend that it's in Syracuse's best interest to stay close to them and be their best advocate in case things really destablize and we need ND to noogie whatever conference to get them some friendlies to travel to the new port of call

 

[sutomcat]

FSU has spent over $3 million in legal fees on court battle against the ACC, records show

Florida State University has spent just north of $3 million in legal fees in its lawsuits against the Atlantic Coast Conference.

www.tallahassee.com

The bill is over $1 million for Clemson and over $3 million for FSU already.

When will they end the madness?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

The new playoff set up ensures that ND has a clear path as an Independent

No duh. But if the B18 goes to say 30 and the SEC to say 20, do you really think they are going to allow outsiders into the playoff? The current system will be replaced.

 

[elimunelson]

No duh. But if the B18 goes to say 30 and the SEC to say 20, do you really think they are going to allow outsiders into the playoff? The current system will be replaced.

completely agree and either of those conferences will easily go to 31 or 21 to let ND in.

 

[Hoo's That]

No duh. But if the B18 goes to say 30 and the SEC to say 20, do you really think they are going to allow outsiders into the playoff? The current system will be replaced.

That would probably happen if they leave the NCAA and a lot of schools would have decided to let the B1G and SEC play with themselves.

 

[orangecuse]

completely agree and either of those conferences will easily go to 31 or 21 to let ND in.

Right, except that's not the point, but rather it forces their hand to leave their pseudo 'independence' and "holding all the cards" mantra. I do find it beyond incredulous that a small Catholic private school that, for the most part, hasn't truly been a serious player in football for decades (haven't won a natty since 1988) continues to bamboozle. Additionally, in a US culture where Catholicism has continued with its decline.

 

[TerryD]

Right, except that's not the point, but rather it forces their hand to leave their pseudo 'independence' and "holding all the cards" mantra. I do find it beyond incredulous that a small Catholic private school that, for the most part, hasn't truly been a serious player in football for decades (haven't won a natty since 1988) continues to bamboozle. Additionally, in a US culture where Catholicism has continued with its decline.

What are the real life odds of conferences going to thirty members ??? Very likely...none at all.

No "bamboozle", ND just wants to stay independent. Any other school is also welcome to do so or not, whatever they please.

Self determination for all, including ND.

ND is not giving up football independence unless there is a complete bar to the playoffs for independents.

Not merely being harder to qualify, but an outright ban on ND.

ND's concern level for that possibility:

 

[elimunelson]

What are the real life odds of conferences going to thirty members ??? Very likely...none at all.

No "bamboozle", ND just wants to stay independent. Any other school is also welcome to do so or not, whatever they please.

Self determination for all, including ND.

ND is not giving up football independence unless there is a complete bar to the playoffs for independents.

Not merely being harder to qualify, but an outright ban on ND.

ND's concern level for that possibility:

Completely agree with this. I would caviat it that if everyone else joins 2 conferences and there is STILL a path for ND to get into the playoffs, they'll remain independent.

No school w a brain will stop scheduling Notre Dame. They are a "circus coming to town" type program.

 

[kcsu]

No duh. But if the B18 goes to say 30 and the SEC to say 20, do you really think they are going to allow outsiders into the playoff? The current system will be replaced.

No Duh. Do you think that the Networks dont want ND in the playoffs?