FSU vs The ACC

[NKR1978]

Been hesitant to post on this topic for awhile, but I have it from a very reliable source that the WWL is NOT supportive of FSU, in any way, with this lawsuit. They will not allow the ACC to dissolve, period. As Tomcat says, ESPN is paying way below the current market value for the ACC deal. They know they have a peach of a deal. Plus, if FSU wanted out, they could have done it two years ago. They didn’t. Now they are stuck, and the WWL will not let them out of the contract as structured. So it’s FSU against not only the ACC, but ESPN (and the current power structure of the GOR’s, CFP, etc). FOX made their power play with the BIG and “nudged” the collapse of the PAC12. They wanted in on the CFP desperately, and took advantage of the lack of a PAC12 deal. Didn’t take much for UCLA and USC to jump so a new deal would be structured with FOX at the table through the BIG. The dominoes fell from there. The BIG is happy where they are.

And as much as the SEC is ESPN’s prized pony, the ACC is also valuable to them, so there is no net positive in a deal allowing FSU to go to the SEC. It would degrade their other prized commodity, and as Tomcat also pointed out, the ACC makes them $$$. So the SEC is not going to bite the hand that feeds them and roll the carpet out for the Noles. The SEC and the ACC aren’t changing anytime soon. FSU is jammed up and in for a doozy. If they want out, they will have to pay every red cent of the $579 million (or whatever it is) and ESPN knows they don’t have the cash. And FOX has what they want with their BIG deal.

I don’t claim to be an expert on any of this, but I know my source is solid. Can things change? Certainly. One thing we know is *stuff* happens. Never trust the BIG. However, as far as the SEC, ACC and ESPN are concerned, this will be a massive uphill battle for FSU. They are screwed as things stand, regardless of what their overzealous fans think.

It would be nice if ESPN threw some cash the ACC's way to try to keep everyone happy.

 

[jr4750]

Did anyone see the stink UNC made this week? I missed it.

https://x.com/tjaltimore/status/1752464835437060412?s=46&t=wRQycgAD8feL9oPLqpw9YA

 

[oldpinepoint]

Did anyone see the stink UNC made this week? I missed it.

https://x.com/tjaltimore/status/1752464835437060412?s=46&t=wRQycgAD8feL9oPLqpw9YA

Man Rutgers is horrible

 

[HRE Otto IV]

They are banking on the entire system blowing up and reconstituting itself around the biggest brands. FSU feels like they are one of them. I think the blow up will end up blowing up the Rutgers, Iowas, Vanderbilts and those schools that provide zero revenue to whatever big 2 conference is created.

I do think as a fan of college football, i'm weirdly happy FSU is going on this kamikaze mission as it may just get us to the end game faster. I think a healthy Syracuse needs clarity no matter what tier we end up on.

EDIT: I hope we're lower tier end of day with like minded peer schools. I don't think we'll end up in a big 2 no matter what. I just hope more Syracuse like schools don't get the tap on the shoulder either and we can create a sustainable sandbox (that also involves a reconsituted big east for hoops)

If the top B18 and SEC schools wanted to break off with each other, they wouldn't have just signed the TV deals they did and they could have left in 5 years. They didn't need FSU to blow anything up.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I think my post was responsive. I think FSU is looking longer than 10 years out. What if its opportunity to get in Big10 or SEC is now and its worried in 10 years, the opportunity won't be there.

So they are worried that within 10 years USF will pass them by? Otherwise they will be just as attractive in 10 years as they are right now.

Why mortgage the next 10 years just to be where you will anyway in 10 years? There is no advantage. The B18 does not want FSU right now. The SEC doesn't either. ESPN wants FSU right where they are. Maybe FOX would want them now.

Also even if FSU were a free agent, they still might not get an invite right now. Both the B18 and SEC will want to integrate their new additions before even thinking of adding more.

If FSU is trying to get into the B18 why not tell the ACC that they are leaving after the 2028 season and negotiate a settlement at that time while also raising funds for the next 5 years to payoff that settlement? Why go scorched Earth and try to leave now? And if they want the SEC that date is 2032 and 9 years of fund raising.

The route they are choosing makes no sense for anyone.

 

[kcsu]

So they are worried that within 10 years USF will pass them by? Otherwise they will be just as attractive in 10 years as they are right now.

Why mortgage the next 10 years just to be where you will anyway in 10 years? There is no advantage. The B18 does not want FSU right now. The SEC doesn't either. ESPN wants FSU right where they are. Maybe FOX would want them now.

Also even if FSU were a free agent, they still might not get an invite right now. Both the B18 and SEC will want to integrate their new additions before even thinking of adding more.

If FSU is trying to get into the B18 why not tell the ACC that they are leaving after the 2028 season and negotiate a settlement at that time while also raising funds for the next 5 years to payoff that settlement? Why go scorched Earth and try to leave now? And if they want the SEC that date is 2032 and 9 years of fund raising.

The route they are choosing makes no sense for anyone.

Why? Because this move was driven by emotion. Emotion of a BS crazy administration that is controlled by a lunatic booster base. There is nothing rational about this move. It makes zero sense other than to pacify the crazies and possible protect the AD from getting ridin out of town on the back of the Pony

 

[Hoo's That]

I've been waiting for this to come up

FSU names ex-ACC boss in amended complaint

The Florida State board of trustees has filed an amended complaint to its lawsuit against the ACC, naming former commissioner John Swofford in the latest filing.

www.espn.com

kinda surprised they didnt lead with this. many of us thought it was "fishy" at the time.

Yes, Swofford son worked for Raycom at the time. But Raycom had been working with he ACC forever. Raycom always had been a truly honest media partner. In fact, Raycom had been necessary for a couple of decades at least to the ACC getting good media coverage.

Now this, may have some merit?

Totally irrelevant as the TV contracts with ESPN and Raycom were signed before the GoR. The GoR was signed to make ESPN feel warm and fuzzy enough to create the ACC Network. Scare tactic/head fake/hockey deke, pure and simple.

 

[DPCuse]

I think my post was responsive. I think FSU is looking longer than 10 years out. What if its opportunity to get in Big10 or SEC is now and its worried in 10 years, the opportunity won't be there.

I think you are exactly right. Decisions in higher education are made looking out 50, 100, 200 years. They aren't thinking about the payback over the next decade or two. They want to position themselves long term with the cream of the crop and reputation is everything to a school. In their view, an SEC conference delivers that. And they are willing to suffer in the short term to benefit decades from now. Especially if you have donors lining up to pay your exit fee.

Now...here is where I think they are being fools. The landscape is going to change. NCAAF may not exist as we know it 5 years from now. So this may get solved for them without forking out $572M. Wouldn't that be hilarious if they paid it and then it all blew up and they were included in an elite tier of programs anyway.

 

[Toga]

I think you are exactly right. Decisions in higher education are made looking out 50, 100, 200 years. They aren't thinking about the payback over the next decade or two. They want to position themselves long term with the cream of the crop and reputation is everything to a school. In their view, an SEC conference delivers that. And they are willing to suffer in the short term to benefit decades from now. Especially if you have donors lining up to pay your exit fee.

Now...here is where I think they are being fools. The landscape is going to change. NCAAF may not exist as we know it 5 years from now. So this may get solved for them without forking out $572M. Wouldn't that be hilarious if they paid it and then it all blew up and they were included in an elite tier of programs anyway.

 

[jgeorge322]

So they are worried that within 10 years USF will pass them by? Otherwise they will be just as attractive in 10 years as they are right now.

Why mortgage the next 10 years just to be where you will anyway in 10 years? There is no advantage. The B18 does not want FSU right now. The SEC doesn't either. ESPN wants FSU right where they are. Maybe FOX would want them now.

Also even if FSU were a free agent, they still might not get an invite right now. Both the B18 and SEC will want to integrate their new additions before even thinking of adding more.

If FSU is trying to get into the B18 why not tell the ACC that they are leaving after the 2028 season and negotiate a settlement at that time while also raising funds for the next 5 years to payoff that settlement? Why go scorched Earth and try to leave now? And if they want the SEC that date is 2032 and 9 years of fund raising.

The route they are choosing makes no sense for anyone.

With all due respect, I think you are stating things as fact when the situation may not be exactly how you describe it.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

With all due respect, I think you are stating things as fact when the situation may not be exactly how you describe it.

What am I stating as a fact?

Why no counter?

Most of the stuff in my last post is the actual behavior we have already seen from all parties. So what indicators do we have that recent behavior will change significantly?

We don’t even know if conferences will exist in 10 years. If FSU has to pay $300M to get out of the ACC (their latest number not mine), doesn’t that seem like a waste of money? To go join a club that might not exist in 10 years?

Even if that club still does exist they are putting themselves at a significant competitive disadvantage for the next half dozen years at least. Between the opportunity costs of fees paid and the repayment of any financing, they will be worse off. The conference payouts are what they are until the new TV contracts.

 

[DoctorBombay]

I think my post was responsive. I think FSU is looking longer than 10 years out. What if its opportunity to get in Big10 or SEC is now and its worried in 10 years, the opportunity won't be there.

Fair enough- and if they've made that calculation and decided to roll the dice, then power to them.
My question would be why do you expect an imminent settlement from the ACC? There is little to no incentive for the ACC to settle, and if they do, it certainly wouldn't be for the numbers FSU keeps tossing out. $100-$150 million? Peshaw!!
Barring a major setback court ruling, the ACC can simply sit back and name their price. The die has indeed been cast- why offer FSU a lifeline?

 

[gmoney44]

It would be nice if ESPN threw some cash the ACC's way to try to keep everyone happy.

It would be nice but ESPN has shed a ton of customers and their parent Company stock has lost half its value in the last three years. They got the ACC by the balls. They’re probably going to milk every possible cent from the ACC before it’s inevitable implosion.

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

It would be nice but ESPN has shed a ton of customers and their parent Company stock has lost half its value in the last three years. They got the ACC by the balls. They’re probably going to milk every possible cent from the ACC before it’s inevitable implosion.

Yeah.

League still has A+ exposure second to none.

I don't think the payout is that bad either yes 2 other leagues are higher but you can cover non revenue programs and the BB/FB coaches salaries with what we are getting.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Another problem for FSU even if the B18 wanted them, having 19 teams is a PIA. For BBall you now have one team having a bye each round. For FB you cannot have an odd number of conference games. So the B18 would need to drop from 9 conference games down to 8 conference games. Which is 5 less conference games of inventory for the networks. That will not make them happy. And 9 conference games better not be in the TV contracts.

This wouldn't be an issue if they can find a 20th team. But who else is going to pay all that money to leave the ACC or B12?

On top of that the B18 is already trying to integrate 4 new schools already. Do they really need a 5th?

The most convenient thing for the B18 would be adding FSU in 2029-30. So why is FSU taking the route they are vs being more Texas like and negotiating an amicable exit?


And another consideration for FSU, going to the B18 likely means giving up one if not both of Florida and Miami. If they are playing B18 games, Florida, Miami then good luck ever making the playoffs.

 

[SmilinBob]

So FSU's options are:

Big 10/SEC/Big 12

Indy or maybe join the PAC2?

For their logic to make sense somebody has to be sweet talking them and to me it's either the Big 10 or some streaming service like Prime.

 

[FireballPhil]

Yes, ESPN must be brought into the current action in some manner. No settlement can be made without ESPN’s approval as ESPN holds the broadcast rights for each ACC school.

FSU must walk a fine line with ESPN as ESPN is the partner for one of FSU’s two dream landing spots. The other dream landing spot for FSU is ESPN’s most ardent competitor. Carry out each scenario and it does not look good for FSU.

This being true, does FSU even have to worry about ESPN? I mean if their landing spot is the SEC and ESPN has rights over those teams as well, does ESPN even care as long as they have the broadcast rights?

 

[HtownOrange]

This being true, does FSU even have to worry about ESPN? I mean if their landing spot is the SEC and ESPN has rights over those teams as well, does ESPN even care as long as they have the broadcast rights?

Contracts obligate all parties. ESPN is obligated to pay the ACC for FSU’s rights. FSU can play in the SEC but their home games benefit the ACC and all FSU driven revenue goes to the ACC. Even then, the ACC could fight under a specific performance theory to block FSU from playing in the SEC. ESPN is equally locked into the contract as the ACC and each member school.

The law favors contracts and will only void or break them for a legal basis. FSU wanting more money is not a legal basis.

besides, ESPN pays FSU the ACC rate, why would ESPN voluntarily pay more for FSU in the SEC? There is no new consideration or benefit.

Finally, can a deal be worked out? Sure, but all parties have to agree to the deal. For the ACC to agree, there is the withdrawal fee and the buy back of the TV rights. FSU admits these total no less than $572MM but has no money to pay the withdrawal fee or buy back their rights. The point is moot. FSU is hoping to drive a wedge and get out cheap.

 

[TheCusian]

They should let FSU play in the SEC, but with ACC payouts lol

 

[CousCuse]

Wouldn't it open the path for Syracuse to go to the top of the ACC with FSU and Clemson out of the conference?

 

[longtimefan]

Wouldn't it open the path for Syracuse to go to the top of the ACC with FSU and Clemson out of the conference?

I'm sure every other program in the ACC has the same thought.

 

[WoadBlue]

Wouldn't it open the path for Syracuse to go to the top of the ACC with FSU and Clemson out of the conference?

Big East thinking and ACC basketball thinking in regard to football. And it is not just small time thinking but self-destructive thinking.

 

[CousCuse]

Big East thinking and ACC basketball thinking in regard to football. And it is not just small time thinking but self-destructive thinking.

They don't want to be a part of the ACC any longer. It would be a distraction for the duration of their stay.

 

[CousCuse]

I'm sure every other program in the ACC has the same thought.

I'm sure. Battle Royale for the crown.

 

[HtownOrange]

They don't want to be a part of the ACC any longer. It would be a distraction for the duration of their stay.

If FSU wants to leave early, the terms are spelled out for them. They must pay the withdrawal fee (which they demanded) and buy back their TV rights, which are very valuable. Further, they must have ACC and ESPN approval. The approval is what the ACC will use as leverage to force the settlement price up. This is what makes the GOR so strong, it is a simple agreement, terms are clear, and it is intended to bind all parties for the duration of the agreement.

The GOR value goes down each year while the withdrawal fee hopefully increases each year.

FSU would be wise to save money and buy out early or simply wait out the GOR and leave, as did USC/UCLA. There has been enough discussion to prove FSU would lose money if they borrowed to withdraw and buy back their rights, unless the ACC capitulates in full, which is not happening.