FSU vs The ACC

[Scooch]

You mean 2.5 power conferences and notre dame? It'll be hilarious when the dust settles and ND can basically cherry pick their 10 win seasons not having to be part of these monolithic conferences and end up stronger than ever. I'm rooting for that. The team that didn't buck to the pressure of musical chairs ends up strongest of all.

EDIT: I root for strengthened catholic colleges being a proud customer of the College of the Holy Cross.

Honestly, I don't really think much about ND when it comes to all this conference stuff. They've made their choice and now kind of exist in their own universe.

Which is fine, I don't begrudge them that. They'll have their own TV deal for football, schedule however they can, and make the playoffs when it lines up for them.

I'm sure they'll sneak into the 12-team or 16-team field at times because of their brand. But so will certain SEC and B1G teams.

I don't necessarily think they'll be "strongest of all". They'll just be their own thing man. Like David Pumpkins.

 

[Scooch]

The question is, will the added revenue the ACCN brings the ACC more than offset the added money the B12 gets by getting two new contracts while the ACC waits until 2036? I am not sure on this but I suspect the ACC will continue to make more money. IMHO, it will be pretty close.

The market is volatile and a lot could change if one of these conferences successfully raids the other. It will be an interesting next 12 years to be sure.

As you said, it's really difficult to project this, given how turbulent the media and conference landscape will be in the foreseeable future.

I do suspect the B12 will be earning more than the ACC relatively soon. There just aren't a lot of premium rights available in the next few years, and there is a serious demand on the part of both the traditional media companies and the streamers.

The B12 doesn't have the brands that the ACC does, but it generates more viewing. There is a lot of value there for both subscribers and ad sales.

And oddly enough, it's their lack of premium brands that makes them less likely to be raided by the SEC and B1G. Plus their leadership totally gets the new media landscape.

 

[HouClone]

ESPN makes $150 million plus a year from the ACCN from carriage fees alone. Ad revenue is on top of that.

ACCN was a great deal for ESPN. I think for the ACC, it was a decent deal. If the ACC didn't make the super long commitment to ESPN to get ACCN, they would likely be in a similar position to the B12 today.

They probably would be getting a little more money (because the schools and markets are better) but I don't think they would be very competitive with the SEC or B1G in an open market. The ACC just doesn't get the TV ratings those conferences do on the whole.

The question is, will the added revenue the ACCN brings the ACC more than offset the added money the B12 gets by getting two new contracts while the ACC waits until 2036? I am not sure on this but I suspect the ACC will continue to make more money. IMHO, it will be pretty close.

The market is volatile and a lot could change if one of these conferences successfully raids the other. It will be an interesting next 12 years to be sure.

The ACC with the brands imo will always be ahead of the Big 12 unless the Big 12 builds up brands themselves. The key is to keep the ACC brands. Even if FSU, Clemson, NC, and Miami stay until 2036, the gap to the P2 will still be there in 2036 so they would bolt. It is not selfish on their part, even now. Any school would do so. The gap is too large.

ESPN and Fox nudged them but ultimately the presidents of all schools through the years are at fault for allowing this conference revenue gap.

 

[baggerbob]

Correct. ESPN was making money off the ACC before the ACCN was created and it continues to be profitable for them.

But the ACCN makes dumping the ACC unthinkable. Last I heard, each ACC full time member was making $11 million/year from ACCN. ND gets a partial share.

And the conference gets a share too. So the ACC gets in the neighborhood of $170 million per year from ACCN. Profits are split 50-50 with ESPN so from ACCN alone, ESPN makes about $170 million per year.

That money is going to drop over the next 12 years as people continue to cut the cord but that is offset in part by the markets ACCN has added to with higher in state carriage fees (California and Texas). It isn't going to go down a ton. Confident it will still be over $100 million per year by 2036.

So we are talking about $1.5 billion dollars (conservatively) over the rest of the ACC contract that ESPN is going to make off ACCN alone.

They can't throw that away. When you compare what the ACC makes for ESPN to what it costs them to get that programming, it has to be one of the most profitable contracts ESPN has. They will extend the contract and if they have a chance to expand the footprint of the conference during the next 12 years into areas that will increase their profits, they will act to make that happen.

This is why the B12 is in such deep trouble.

When you make sense people don't like to listen, but you laid everything out for anyone with half a brain.

 

[elimunelson]

Honestly, I don't really think much about ND when it comes to all this conference stuff. They've made their choice and now kind of exist in their own universe.

Which is fine, I don't begrudge them that. They'll have their own TV deal for football, schedule however they can, and make the playoffs when it lines up for them.

I'm sure they'll sneak into the 12-team or 16-team field at times because of their brand. But so will certain SEC and B1G teams.

I don't necessarily think they'll be "strongest of all". They'll just be their own thing man. Like David Pumpkins.

Fair points and i'm being, as usual, hyperbolic.

However. and it's a big however. There's going to be tremendous buyer's remorse from the colleges in 5-10-15 years ruing for yesterday's conference alignment. They'll be fat dumb and rich for sure. They'll be able to spend for talent and ultimately go........8-4. USC isn't built for 8-4. They're built for 10-2, rose bowl. That's their brand.

I just think these brands depend on other brands to keep them relevant. USC playing Rutgers isn't legacy building or market enhancing.

I think ND's brand hasn't taken a dump at all throughout this. It'll only be more enhanced. Again, a big again, i'm an idiot

 

[elimunelson]

The college that turned down an invite to the original Big East back when Holy Cross had some very good teams? Good school but bad decision, Nova thanks them though.

Egregious decision in hindsight yet I never truly understood why it was a single decision mistake. Like BC was getting invited too. Why didn't they come back around for HC when HC decided to allow for full scholarships? People make mistakes and fix them ultimately. You talk to any Crusader alum and they hate that decision. Truly bizare when you see the schools that are in the Big East like Seton Hall.


the whole thing is bizarre to me. The school could have played at the Centrum to satiate the Worcester community.

 

[Scooch]

Fair points and i'm being, as usual, hyperbolic.

However. and it's a big however. There's going to be tremendous buyer's remorse from the colleges in 5-10-15 years ruing for yesterday's conference alignment. They'll be fat dumb and rich for sure. They'll be able to spend for talent and ultimately go.....8-4. USC isn't built for 8-4. They're built for 10-2, rose bowl. That's their brand.

I just think these brands depend on other brands to keep them relevant. USC playing Rutgers isn't legacy building or market enhancing.

I think ND's brand hasn't taken a dump at all throughout this. It'll only be more enhanced. Again, a big again, i'm an idiot

I think fans will get used to potentially less glitzy records if they are caused by stronger strength of schedules and result in playoff berths.

The playoff field will be chosen by the same humans who kicked FSU to the curb this past year. They’ll assuredly include some 8-9 win SEC and B1G teams due to SOS.

One thing I like about the NFL is that, while every game matters, every game isn’t life or death. A team can lose to a good team, or even stub their toe against a bad team, and still end up with a high seed and a deep playoff run.

I suspect college is going to look more like that soon. There’s going to be a 9-3 title team in the not so distant future, I’m sure of it. (Well, 12-3 after the playoff run, but you get the point)

The playoff will expand to 16 teams (maybe more). And the regular season will eventually expand to 14 games. There’s just wayyyy too much money on the table for that not to happen.

Anyway, I suspect people will adjust how they view records because the state of the game will demand that. The KC Chiefs went 11-6 last season. I think they’re fans were ultimately cool with that.

 

[Scooch]

Egregious decision in hindsight yet I never truly understood why it was a single decision mistake. Like BC was getting invited too. Why didn't they come back around for HC when HC decided to allow for full scholarships? People make mistakes and fix them ultimately. You talk to any Crusader alum and they hate that decision. Truly bizare when you see the schools that are in the Big East like Seton Hall.


the whole thing is bizarre to me. The school could have played at the Centrum to satiate the Worcester community.

I don’t imagine Worcester was a market worth revisiting after Holy Cross said no originally. To paraphrase Lin Manuel Miranda, they threw away their shot,

 

[DoctorBombay]

No. They gave the ACCN to the ACC to lock them in for 20 years at a ridiculous low rate for the regular ESPN deal.

ESPN+ is the de facto Big 12 Network. And ESPN+ is where ESPN is shifting their future resources.

Ummm, no.
A stand alone network is a different ballgame, and certainly not "de facto" by any means.
Until the BigXII gets its own profitable stand-alone network, then their future is a lot more precarious than the ACC.
There's levels to this isht. JMHO

 

[BomberOrange]

I think fans will get used to potentially less glitzy records if they are caused by stronger strength of schedules and result in playoff berths.

The playoff field will be chosen by the same humans who kicked FSU to the curb this past year. They’ll assuredly include some 8-9 win SEC and B1G teams due to SOS.

One thing I like about the NFL is that, while every game matters, every game isn’t life or death. A team can lose to a good team, or even stub their toe against a bad team, and still end up with a high seed and a deep playoff run.

I suspect college is going to look more like that soon. There’s going to be a 9-3 title team in the not so distant future, I’m sure of it. (Well, 12-3 after the playoff run, but you get the point)

The playoff will expand to 16 teams (maybe more). And the regular season will eventually expand to 14 games. There’s just wayyyy too much money on the table for that not to happen.

Anyway, I suspect people will adjust how they view records because the state of the game will demand that. The KC Chiefs went 11-6 last season. I think they’re fans were ultimately cool with that.

Couldn’t agree more with your post. I look at last year and saw the Packers get beat by Tommy Cutlets but then get to the playoffs and beat the Cowboys. All you have to do is make it to the tournament. I for one am looking forward to it and am pretty sure upsets will happen because in the end they are college kids and the unpredictable will happen. I just hope after all the realignment that we are included because a lower level, while cool (IC grad here) isn’t really exciting.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I think fans will get used to potentially less glitzy records if they are caused by stronger strength of schedules and result in playoff berths.

The playoff field will be chosen by the same humans who kicked FSU to the curb this past year. They’ll assuredly include some 8-9 win SEC and B1G teams due to SOS.

One thing I like about the NFL is that, while every game matters, every game isn’t life or death. A team can lose to a good team, or even stub their toe against a bad team, and still end up with a high seed and a deep playoff run.

I suspect college is going to look more like that soon. There’s going to be a 9-3 title team in the not so distant future, I’m sure of it. (Well, 12-3 after the playoff run, but you get the point)

The playoff will expand to 16 teams (maybe more). And the regular season will eventually expand to 14 games. There’s just wayyyy too much money on the table for that not to happen.

Anyway, I suspect people will adjust how they view records because the state of the game will demand that. The KC Chiefs went 11-6 last season. I think they’re fans were ultimately cool with that.

For me the NFL is less interesting during the regular season because of that. One doesn't really need to start paying attention until Thanksgiving. IMO that is when the real season starts. Those last 6 games will determine where you are seeded in the playoffs. The first 11 count but they aren't as urgent. If I have nothing else to do and there is nothing else on TV, I will watch a marquee matchup pre TG. But I will not make a point of trying to catch the game.

That is why I find the College FB regular season more interesting. Now if I see that Ohio State is trailing in the 4th Q, I am putting the game on and rooting for an upset. With a 16 team playoff, I won't care as much. An L won't kill them. My viewing will be more like the NFL, I will watch my team (SU/NYG) and will catch other games if I have nothing else going on. Then toward the end of season I will catch the big games as those have pre playoff intensity.


Edit

Last season might not be the norm but three teams were 4-6 going into Thanksgiving and made the playoffs. I don’t see how someone can get excited for early season games without stake in the game (your team, betting, fantasy).

 

[Scooch]

For me the NFL is less interesting during the regular season because of that. One doesn't really need to start paying attention until Thanksgiving. IMO that is when the real season starts. Those last 6 games will determine where you are seeded in the playoffs. The first 11 count but they aren't as urgent. If I have nothing else to do and there is nothing else on TV, I will watch a marquee matchup pre TG. But I will not make a point of trying to catch the game.

That is why I find the College FB regular season more interesting. Now if I see that Ohio State is trailing in the 4th Q, I am putting the game on and rooting for an upset. With a 16 team playoff, I won't care as much. An L won't kill them. My viewing will be more like the NFL, I will watch my team (SU/NYG) and will catch other games if I have nothing else going on. Then toward the end of season I will catch the big games as those have pre playoff intensity.

If that's how you approach it that's fair.

Needless to say, you're an outlier. The NFL is a ratings colossus from week 1 onward.

I suspect an expanded playoff field will boost CFB ratings. People will continue to watch their favorite school, but now there's a reason to have interest in several additional games each week. Not just who's undefeated, but those 7-2 teams who are fighting for a spot. Now their late season games matter.

 

[kcsu]

When the playoff is increased to 16 teams, I think that we will see a handful of teams each year that we wouldn't ever see make a playoff which in my opinion is really good for college football. Syracuse will be one of those teams as will others like Kentucky, Iowa State, West Virginia, Minnesota etc... Teams that once in a four- or five-year period have a chance to be better than normal. For SU being in the ACC is perfect. From this season forward i see us being in that second tier with the Ville, NC state, NC, VT that will be in the hunt for a spot. I'm as excited for this season as any I can remember in the last twenty years. Fran is the right fit for Syracuse and as he grows as a coach we are going to improve. This year's team has a legitimate chance to shock the college football world. My two cents, GT is the key. Should be one heck of ride. Almost time to strap in.

 

[elimunelson]

When the playoff is increased to 16 teams, I think that we will see a handful of teams each year that we wouldn't ever see make a playoff which in my opinion is really good for college football. Syracuse will be one of those teams as will others like Kentucky, Iowa State, West Virginia, Minnesota etc... Teams that once in a four- or five-year period have a chance to be better than normal. For SU being in the ACC is perfect. From this season forward i see us being in that second tier with the Ville, NC state, NC, VT that will be in the hunt for a spot. I'm as excited for this season as any I can remember in the last twenty years. Fran is the right fit for Syracuse and as he grows as a coach we are going to improve. This year's team has a legitimate chance to shock the college football world. My two cents, GT is the key. Should be one heck of ride. Almost time to strap in.

That is the optimistic look at it and hope it's that frequent for the Orangemen.

To have something like that on the horizon makes the argument for the playoff. If Syracuse gets playoff appearances that frequently and a school like Rutgers doesn't (ever) because they are in the BIG, what's the point of the bigger payday?

That's my overarching point that sure Michigan/Ohio St/Penn St will be perennially in the playoff with 9-3 records but these other schools will never get there even with their coffers full. What does that mean ultimately? to me that's the unintended consequences of a melt up in a few conferences where they make a ton of money and have nothing to show for it. It's like when the revenue numbers come out in major league sports. No one cares how much Bob Kraft makes, they want a winner

 

[TerryD]

Correct. ESPN was making money off the ACC before the ACCN was created and it continues to be profitable for them.

But the ACCN makes dumping the ACC unthinkable. Last I heard, each ACC full time member was making $11 million/year from ACCN. ND gets a partial share.

And the conference gets a share too. So the ACC gets in the neighborhood of $170 million per year from ACCN. Profits are split 50-50 with ESPN so from ACCN alone, ESPN makes about $170 million per year.

That money is going to drop over the next 12 years as people continue to cut the cord but that is offset in part by the markets ACCN has added to with higher in state carriage fees (California and Texas). It isn't going to go down a ton. Confident it will still be over $100 million per year by 2036.

So we are talking about $1.5 billion dollars (conservatively) over the rest of the ACC contract that ESPN is going to make off ACCN alone.

They can't throw that away. When you compare what the ACC makes for ESPN to what it costs them to get that programming, it has to be one of the most profitable contracts ESPN has. They will extend the contract and if they have a chance to expand the footprint of the conference during the next 12 years into areas that will increase their profits, they will act to make that happen.

This is why the B12 is in such deep trouble.

ND gets a partial share of the regular ESPN deal.

ND gets a full share of the profits from the ACC Network, the same as everyone else.

The ACC paid ND around $23 million last year.

 

[sutomcat]

ND gets a partial share of the regular ESPN deal.

ND gets a full share of the profits from the ACC Network, the same as everyone else.

The ACC paid ND around $23 million last year.

I stand corrected. ND gets 20% of the normal TV revenue and 100% of the ACC network money compared to full ACC members. Surprising given how important football is to television.

Given this, the ACC network makes even more money than I was discussing. Given the conference also gets a full share, along with the 15 members.

I have read the ACCN revenue per ACC school was over $11 million last season.

11x16 =176. We know profits from the ACCN are split 50/50 with ESPN.

So ESPN made at least $176 million from the ACCN alone last year.

Would a corporation suffering from major revenue reductions shut down a cash machine like this?

Only B12 or FSU fans are stupid enough to believe this.

 

[baggerbob]

When the playoff is increased to 16 teams, I think that we will see a handful of teams each year that we wouldn't ever see make a playoff which in my opinion is really good for college football. Syracuse will be one of those teams as will others like Kentucky, Iowa State, West Virginia, Minnesota etc... Teams that once in a four- or five-year period have a chance to be better than normal. For SU being in the ACC is perfect. From this season forward i see us being in that second tier with the Ville, NC state, NC, VT that will be in the hunt for a spot. I'm as excited for this season as any I can remember in the last twenty years. Fran is the right fit for Syracuse and as he grows as a coach we are going to improve. This year's team has a legitimate chance to shock the college football world. My two cents, GT is the key. Should be one heck of ride. Almost time to strap in.

Best case would be Georgia Tech beats FSU on a last minute score. Comes into the Dome on a big high, underestimates Syracuse and loses.

 

[Hoo's That]

I think fans will get used to potentially less glitzy records if they are caused by stronger strength of schedules and result in playoff berths.

The playoff field will be chosen by the same humans who kicked FSU to the curb this past year. They’ll assuredly include some 8-9 win SEC and B1G teams due to SOS.

One thing I like about the NFL is that, while every game matters, every game isn’t life or death. A team can lose to a good team, or even stub their toe against a bad team, and still end up with a high seed and a deep playoff run.

I suspect college is going to look more like that soon. There’s going to be a 9-3 title team in the not so distant future, I’m sure of it. (Well, 12-3 after the playoff run, but you get the point)

The playoff will expand to 16 teams (maybe more). And the regular season will eventually expand to 14 games. There’s just wayyyy too much money on the table for that not to happen.

Anyway, I suspect people will adjust how they view records because the state of the game will demand that. The KC Chiefs went 11-6 last season. I think they’re fans were ultimately cool with that.

I'm not too sure about that. You could very well be right, but it's very hard for me to imagine Texas, Oklahoma, USC-w, or Orygun fans being happy with consistent 4-5 or 3-6 conference records making them depend on the OOC cupcakes to get into a bowl.

 

[WoadBlue]

I'm not too sure about that. You could very well be right, but it's very hard for me to imagine Texas, Oklahoma, USC-w, or Orygun fans being happy with consistent 4-5 or 3-6 conference records making them depend on the OOC cupcakes to get into a bowl.

Like PSU entering the BT, they ll assume that their top winning ways will continue. But when that does not happen, they will console themselves with money.

 

[WoadBlue]

I stand corrected. ND gets 20% of the normal TV revenue and 100% of the ACC network money compared to full ACC members. Surprising given how important football is to television.

Given this, the ACC network makes even more money than I was discussing. Given the conference also gets a full share, along with the 15 members.

I have read the ACCN revenue per ACC school was over $11 million last season.

11x16 =176. We know profits from the ACCN are split 50/50 with ESPN.

So ESPN made at least $176 million from the ACCN alone last year.

Would a corporation suffering from major revenue reductions shut down a cash machine like this?

Only B12 or FSU fans are stupid enough to believe this.

Clearly you are not very familiar with corporate stupidity over the past few decades.

 

[WoadBlue]

As you said, it's really difficult to project this, given how turbulent the media and conference landscape will be in the foreseeable future.

I do suspect the B12 will be earning more than the ACC relatively soon. There just aren't a lot of premium rights available in the next few years, and there is a serious demand on the part of both the traditional media companies and the streamers.

The B12 doesn't have the brands that the ACC does, but it generates more viewing. There is a lot of value there for both subscribers and ad sales.

And oddly enough, it's their lack of premium brands that makes them less likely to be raided by the SEC and B1G. Plus their leadership totally gets the new media landscape.

The Big with OU and Texas generated more viewers per league football game than did the ACC. There is no reason to think that the Big 12 minus OU and UT will do the same. In fact, it could be quite a bit lower. That plus all the power of prestige if universities is the reason that the ACC must find at least one deep poets back, because schools like Utah, Arizona, Arizona St, Baylor, TCU, TTU, Cincy, WVU can be up for moving ion the ACC can swing the deal.

 

[sutomcat]

Mediation failed in the ACC vs FSU lawsuit.

Another what, $50K or so thrown away for absolutely nothing? Nice.

I need to find a way to invest in the law firms involved in these lawsuits.

FSU, ACC Alert Leon County Court Of Failed Mediation, Plan To Continue Settle Attempt

Leon County Court Judge John C. Cooper ordered the two parties to settle earlier this year.

www.si.com

 

[kcsu]

Mediation failed in the ACC vs FSU lawsuit.

Another what, $50K or so thrown away for absolutely nothing? Nice.

I need to find a way to invest in the law firms involved in these lawsuits.

FSU, ACC Alert Leon County Court Of Failed Mediation, Plan To Continue Settle Attempt

Leon County Court Judge John C. Cooper ordered the two parties to settle earlier this year.

www.si.com

Double that and you will be close. FSU has three on this each at close to 1k an hour. Had to be 40 hours of billing between prep and actual meetings

 

[dasher]

Mediation failed in the ACC vs FSU lawsuit.

Another what, $50K or so thrown away for absolutely nothing? Nice.

I need to find a way to invest in the law firms involved in these lawsuits.

FSU, ACC Alert Leon County Court Of Failed Mediation, Plan To Continue Settle Attempt

Leon County Court Judge John C. Cooper ordered the two parties to settle earlier this year.

www.si.com

And yet we had posters here saying that the ACC would and should settle.

 

[elimunelson]

And yet we had posters here saying that the ACC would and should settle.

(i still think they will). It won't happen via mediation when the bid/ask is so absurdly wide.

at some point the worm will turn in terms of leverage here. At this juncture, the ACC has 95% of the leverage.

As the clock clicks closer to 2030, the ACC would be in their best interest to strike a deal vs get "nothing" for the inevitable exits. Also the longer they wait the longer other options come to the table too.

I just think at a point the rubicon will pass and a settlement will make sense. Maybe i'm completely wrong but that's how I see it going