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Future opponents

Welcome your post Lou, but that makes little sense. Schedules are planned years in advance and there is no way of knowing how good SU or an opponent will be years out. Moreover, its college football - teams go up and down yearly. We beat ND when we stunk, we beat Geno and West Va three years in a row and last year we beat Mizzou and Louisville. So yes, we expect to win games when we are 9 point underdogs because nobody really knows the result ahead of time - that is why they play the games.
Go Orange!

The Maryland game you added for next year was added last week. It's not like Syracuse has been down for two seasons. It's pretty easy to tell what's going to be a difficult game and what isn't. Northwestern was plenty competitive back when that series was signed. If you sign a game with LSU for 2015, or Oregon in 2016, I've got a pretty good idea who is likely to win that game.
 
Did you watch that game? Penn State started a true Freshman QB and if we had any semblance of an offense we win that game. We played bad and had the ball at our 40 down 6 with 2:30 left. We had a play where a Penn State OL saved a TD on freak tackle and our kicker missed a FG after it. Obviously we lost, but I expected our offense to be better. I am a realist and call it the way I see it. Syracuse should expect to beat Maryland at home 7 out of 10 times. This isn't a worldbeater team and we aren't a patsy. We aren't a consistent top 25 but we should defend our home field versus non-elite teams. Sometimes you lose home games, but the other team outplays you.

And that's exactly how the oddsmakers expected it to go, and everyone else expected it to go, and the way it would go 7-8 times out of 10.

Could you have won? Certainly. But no team beats the odds over and over again. For every time you win a game you shouldn't, you lose a game you shouldn't. Over the long haul a team that is an underdog in 6 games is not going to outperform a team that is an underdog in 3 games. You just can't build a program based on the idea of beating multiple teams that are better than you. Nobody has. It's like having a winning strategy for roulette. Yes, you might come out ahead over 10 spins, but you can't build your program based on getting multiple upsets every year.

As people have pointed out, you've had your share of upset wins...but you're still where you are. You're still losing a bunch of these games.
 
And just to clarify for those just joining us...I don't think Syracuse sucks as a program or will never be good or can't be good. I think they can be good.

I do think that Syracuse hasn't been very good for a very long time, and needs to have a scheduling philosophy that matches everyone else to be able to build their program to the level it should be. That's the point of this, not for me to dump on Syracuse. There's a reasonable way to get back to where you should be, and it's been proven to work.
 
A B1G team we'll probably lose to and an away game in N.J. we won't have a chance in. So we'll likely once again be 2-2 heading into October.

If you are already giving up on beating ND next year, you are not the optimist I am. If you are already giving up on beating Maryland next year, you are not a reasonably intelligent human being.

Just kidding Saltine! But I cannot believe or accept that we shouldn't beat Maryland. We should beat them every year. Edsall is not a good coach and will not do good things for that program. Getting beat game after game in the B1G every year won't help them either.
 
The Maryland game you added for next year was added last week. It's not like Syracuse has been down for two seasons. It's pretty easy to tell what's going to be a difficult game and what isn't. Northwestern was plenty competitive back when that series was signed. If you sign a game with LSU for 2015, or Oregon in 2016, I've got a pretty good idea who is likely to win that game.

  1. We were supposed to know years ahead of time that our HC and 6 assistants would jump ship to the NFL?
  2. Maryland? We are supposed to be afraid to play Maryland?!!
  3. We almost beat NW last year - actually had them beat until a dumb PF in then last few minutes. I would not mind playing them next year.
  4. Playing on TV is worth more than win over some turkey.
  5. Putting players in the league is worth more than wins also. Ask kids how many players we put in the NFL last year and then ask then our record.
When you dumb down your schedule there are no guarantees. You might actually be embarrassed by losing to one of those teams - and you will be less prepared for tougher competition. It is not an open and closed case that scheduling patsies is a sound strategy - not by a long shot.

SU has clawed its way back to respectability and is on the rise. We are out of a lousy football conference and into the best (IMHO) conference. We will weather this little bump in the road just fine and look playing to you guys for many years to come.
 
Lou -- I predict that not only will we beat Maryland next year, we will be favored by Vegas and then cover that spread.
 
B1G teams aren't world beaters. OSU is back to being very good and it was very fast, should be ranked about 9 or 10, where it is. Michigan is a pretty good team, worthy of a #15 ranking, not as good as it is ranked. Northwestern is a good team, worthy of a #22-25 ranking. Wisconsin is ok but not great, worthy of a #25 ranking. Nebraska is ok, worthy of a #32-35 ranking. Penn State is ok, about #35-40. Michigan St. is not good, about #50 and vastly overrated right now even after being unable to score on offense at all. Illinois is right about there, too #50.

Placing Maryland into the B1G isn't going to make it a better program or team. It may not lose money hand over fist anymore, but beat downs week in and week out will not improve it. It will be a #55-85 team year in and year out. I don't think Maryland will sniff a Top 25 ranking ever again.

I think SU will be better than Maryland this year with all of our problems. I think we will be far better than Maryland next year.
 
I think some years we over scheduled but most of those were when we were in the bigeast and had to overschedule to avoid multiple espn 3 games and get some national attention. This years schedule is a little harder than i'd like when breaking in a new qb. Next year schedule is setting up well unless we schedule some juggernaut as our last game and hopefully that is the scheduling model going forward.
 
And just to clarify for those just joining us...I don't think Syracuse sucks as a program or will never be good or can't be good. I think they can be good.

I do think that Syracuse hasn't been very good for a very long time, and needs to have a scheduling philosophy that matches everyone else to be able to build their program to the level it should be. That's the point of this, not for me to dump on Syracuse. There's a reasonable way to get back to where you should be, and it's been proven to work.



we have had a solid run since marrone's second year and hopefully we can keep it up with shafer and the new staff to get back to our glory days one day soon
 
Ugh, 2014 looks like another mess. Hopefully we can fill up on MAC teams in 2015.

How specifically does 2014 look like a "mess?" Please explain.
 
While in the Big East, SU needed to schedule television games. Starting 2-0 or 0-2 mattered less than publicity and having the game talked about.
The ACC openers on Labor day, and this year the BC-Wake game in the second week, were made for TV deals. Can't do much about it, and not really up to the ACC, they agreed as part of the TV contract. Same thing the SEC did with Vandy-Ole Miss.

Otherwise you shouldn't see any conference games the first week or two.

If you look at how the ACC schedule works out, especially compared to years past, the ACC is doing their part to work out their football schedule like a big boy conference. Two seasons ago the ACC scheduled the FSU-Clemson game, the likely division decider, in the third game of the year, and one week after huge OOC showdowns (OU and Auburn). It couldn't make less sense. They also love sending the conference favorites out for a Thursday night road game on four days rest.

Ever notice that in the end-of-year rivalry games with the SEC, the SEC schools always had a cupcake game? I bet you didn't. Meanwhile, the ACC would be sending FSU up to Maryland, and Clemson on the road to BC with the division on the line that weekend. So all our rivals had two weeks to prepare, while we were all travelling to try wrap up a division. Any wonder why the ACC has struggled in those games?

Well, take a look at this year...finally, the conference gets it. Clemson, GT, and FSU all have laughers the week before and will have wrapped up their conference slate.

It's a little thing, something not noticed nationally, but that gives me as an observer of this stuff a little bit of optimism that the ACC finally gets the importance of football and playing the "game" behind the game the way other conferences do. There are some indications that this conference is moving away from tolerating football as a pre-basketball diversion and actually intend to compete.

Next, we have to get the schools on board to do the same for their part.

I also remember several horribly played FSU-UM games scheduled the first game of the season after the ACC expanded. I believe these games were scheduled so that the losing team could make it way back up the rankings by the end of the year for the rematch in the CCG. Unfortunately, the games did not reflect well on the level of football being played in the conference.

I enjoy your concern over the conference and the school's schedule, but the jadedness in me wonders if it is all a little self-serving. A one loss ACC team would be looked as weaker than a one loss SEC team and depending on the year, may also be passed by a one loss B1G, XII, or Pac-12 team (depending on which conference one loss team was also a helmet school).

If I recall correctly, in another thread, you lamented difficult ACC scheduling because a conference team with a poor OOC record might knock off a favorite and send it down the rankings. In other words, you were not concerned with SU, but of FSU's rank after it shanks a field goal wide right and loses to a weak conference team.

Not to be rude, but I really do not care about protecting the historically strong ACC teams through conference scheduling. In fact, if certain teams get a competitive advantage through scheduling, I would be very disappointed.

Of course, the times they are a-changing. After this year, the BCS goes by the wayside and we get the play-off where SOS is supposed to play a bigger role. As a result, the B1G will no longer be playing FCS schools. Also, more power conferences are going to nine game conference schedules. We will need to see the effect of both before we can truly determine how scheduling down or up will affect a team's ability to make the play-off.

In the end, because there is not an ACC network, SU needs to balance the competing interests of winning cupcake non-televised games or playing on television. This was especially true when SU was in the Big East.
 
If you are already giving up on beating ND next year, you are not the optimist I am. If you are already giving up on beating Maryland next year, you are not a reasonably intelligent human being.

Just kidding Saltine! But I cannot believe or accept that we shouldn't beat Maryland. We should beat them every year. Edsall is not a good coach and will not do good things for that program. Getting beat game after game in the B1G every year won't help them either.
Why should we beat MD every year? Because we used to be perennially ranked and produce all-Americans? We've been irrelevant for a dozen years. I would like some cupcakes to fatten up on, and to our current program MD isn't a cupcake.
 
Personally, I think it would be in SU's interest to schedule OOC (in order):
  • Game 1 - A competitive, well-respected (maybe, a bit or a reach) BCS team (e.g., Penn State, Michigan State, etc.). If SU wins the game, it starts the season off with some buzz and may yield a ranking by the 3rd-4th week (provided they win the next three games). If SU loses the game, the next three games should provide a winning record going into league play - so little damage. Also, playing a competitive BCS team during the first game of the season should level the playing field significantly. Preparation is key but both teams would be facing a bit of rust. Neutral site for this game would be fine.
  • Game 2 - A regional FCS opponent (e.g., Colgate, Stony Brook, Cornell, etc.). Regional opponent might increase the gate at Dome. Hopefully this serves as an exhibition in many respects to work out any issues raised in first game. Home game.
  • Game 3 - A mid-major BSC opponent (e.g., MAC, Sun Belt, etc.). A winnable game that increases the level of competition. Home game.
  • Game 4 - A BCS team that you should beat (e.g., Maryland, Rutgers, etc.). Not sure I want to play Rutgers but I wanted to use them as an example of team we should beat every time we play them. :)
IMO, this should yield a 4-0 or 3-1 record every time going into league play. Also has the potential to give program a bit of buzz.
 
Why should we beat MD every year? Because we used to be perennially ranked and produce all-Americans? We've been irrelevant for a dozen years. I would like some cupcakes to fatten up on, and to our current program MD isn't a cupcake.
I don't think any BCS team should be considered a cake walk. I do think that if you look at Maryland's record recently and their national reputation, on the surface SU fans (and many neutral observers) would not be surprised if we beat them on a consistent basis. Whereas, most SU fans and neutral observes would be shocked if we, say, beat Penn State on a consistent basis. This goes back to the reputations of programs. A great example is the Boston College-USC match up today. Many talking heads are calling for BC to win. USC is definitely in a down year but if BC does pull off the win, it will be a fairly significant win for the program - certainly much bigger than if they beat Wazzu.
 
The SEC has it right you schedule wins out of conference, everyone goes 3-1, or 4-0, that way everyone is considered top 35-40. Then when you beat each other in conference, no-one loses any ground in the polls, its a win- win situation , and they perfected it during the BCS era. You also get the chance to build your depth, by getting players into game day situations before conference play begins.
 
Further, everyone is forgetting that Maryland has the full support rich uncle UnderArmour. Now I agree they aren't great right now, but UA's founder intends to make them the Oregon of the east. I'm skeptical, but if I had to pick the program with the brighter football future it would be MD.
 
Personally, I think it would be in SU's interest to schedule OOC (in order):

  • Game 2 - A regional FCS opponent (e.g., Colgate, Stony Brook, Cornell, etc.). Regional opponent might increase the gate at Dome. Hopefully this serves as an exhibition in many respects to work out any issues raised in first game. Home game.
  • .
Wagner certainly did not increase the numbers at the box office.
 
Wagner certainly did not increase the numbers at the box office.
Agreed only two FCS opponents are guaranteed to fill the visitor sections (Cornell and Colgate) and only one will offer scholies in the future (Colgate). Colgate should be a common baby seal for Cuse in the future. Maybe 4-6 times a decade.
 
Ok, the good thing about it is that we'll see. It will play out.

But I will tell you, NOBODY, and I mean NOBODY outside Syracuse fandom, believes that to be the case. We'll see if the world is wrong and you are right.

I just hope if it does play out the way everyone expects, with 2-3 conference wins, people will acknowledge the state of the program and not act like a coach or a quarterback just tanked a potential 9-win team.

Syracuse finally put a complete game together and found their starting QB. Another note to think on is the Orange have had 3 straight years of pulling an upset against a ranked opponent. If they are to keep that streak alive, it will have to be either Clemson or FSU. Both these teams are legite contenders in the NC hunt. We have another tune up game and if Hunt is given the full nod, Clemson will be in for a little surprise when they come up for this one. I like our chances to have this one come down to the wire, especially with the extra week to prepare and Clemson not knowing what the Dome is really like when you have 50K plus rocking it. And you can bet, the fans will be out in force for this one.
 
Wagner certainly did not increase the numbers at the box office.
Wagner actually brought a couple of hundred fans to the Dome. Very similar numbers to Rutgers, UConn, Temple, UB and BC.

If the past is any indication of the future, Colgate would definitely bring more fans than Wagner did.
 
One thing I think the SEC does that is quite clever is that they schedule SEC conference games early and then play small schools later in the year to be able to poll jump late so they can position themselves for the final poll. The voters hate those late season losses and the SEC knows this.
 
One thing I think the SEC does that is quite clever is that they schedule SEC conference games early and then play small schools later in the year to be able to poll jump late so they can position themselves for the final poll. The voters hate those late season losses and the SEC knows this.

SEC teams usually play FCS teams for their penultimate game of the season, to give their teams an easy warm-up before they play their season finale against their rivals: S. Carolina-Clemson, Florida-Florida State, UGA-GT, and so on.
 

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