Okay, I have a little more time to talk about this now.
When the new seating was announced, the PS took the percentage of seats reduced at Kenan Stadium when they went to individual seats and assumed the same percentage would apply at Syracuse.
Kenan's capacity was reduced from about 63K to about 51K when they put in their seats. That is right about a 20% reduction.
But losing 20% of capacity was an acceptable drop for them because they were at 63K to start with and 51K was a more appropriate size for the fan base than 63K was.
For us, dropping capacity by 20% would put the dome at less than 40K for football and somewhere around 24K for basketball.
That is too much. We draw more than 40K for football and 24K for basketball every season. Often multiple times in a season, especially for basketball. It would make a big impact on revenue today and if we ever get really good at either sport again, it will make a really big impact.
I have heard SUAD say when the individual seats are installed, it will take capacity to around 44K (for football) a number of times in the past. That is the number that has been knocking around for years.
Kenan lost 20% because they went from 18 inch bleacher seats to 22 inch individual seats. That is a 19% bump in seat size.
Pete recently confirmed in a PS article that post seating reduction, hoops will still be able to host crowds of 30K and more.
To me, that implies we are losing at most 4K for hoops from the 34K or so we have today. Which is about 11%.
If you believe the 44K number that has been bandied about post reduction, that represents right about 10% from the current 49K.
You mention aisle width reductions. This is true. Each aisle will be widened by 4 inches.
Most sections seat 32 people. That is 576 inches. Let's work with the typical row widths to make the math easier.
ADA says aisles need to be 48 inches wide. That means we need to increase aisle width 4 inches and this will reduce each of the row widths by 4 inches (2 on each end). That leaves us with 572 inches to fit seats into.
You are concerned about space required for arm rests. Every site I have looked at includes arm rests in the seat width. I don't think this is a concern as far as calculating impact on stadium seating capacity (but it might be determining how comfortable the fans are).
Here is a snippet of an image from one of the seat manufacturers.
You can see this manufacturer offers this seat type in 1 inch increments. Others offer in half inch increments.
View attachment 216974
Given the expected decrease of 10% in stadium capacity, I would expect the seats to be about 10% wider. Perhaps a bit less because of waste. We have 18 inch wide seats now. 10% of 18 is 1.8, so a 10% increase in seat width will yield 19.8 inch wide seats.
As mentioned, it appears some seat manufacturers offer seats in 1 inch increments and others in half inch increments. Don't see anything more precise offered.
If we do 19 inch wide seats, we can fit 30.1 in the 572 inches we have to work with. That is a 6.25% reduction. Not much gain for people's butts and the seat reduction percentage is too small. I do not believe 19 inches is being considered.
If we go with 19.5 inch wide seats, we could fit 29.33 in the full rows. Rounding down to 29 takes us to a 9.375% reduction in seats. That sounds close. That might be the base width we go to.
20 inch wide seats yield 28.6 seats per row. A loss of 4 seats per row. That is a 12.5% reduction. Pretty big and kind of galling to waste .6 of a seat every row. Would be surprised if we went with this.;
20.5 inch wide seats yield 27.9 seats per row. So close. I wonder if they could find a way to fit 28 seats in and get away with it. If the seats are precisely 20.5 inches wide, that would take 574 inches, so the seats would hang one inch into the aisle. Probably not acceptable. Maybe SU can get the manufacturer to make them 20.42 inches wide instead of 20.5. That would be good if SU wanted to make some sections of the dome a little more comfortable for the el grande portion of the fan base. Maybe make the people ponying up the big bucks feel a big more loved. They could afford to do some seats at this size if most were at the 19.5 inch size.
You go to 21 inch wide seats and you are at 27 seats in a row. That is a 15.625% reduction in capacity.
If you go to 22 inch wide seats, you are down to 26 seats in a row. That gets you to an 18.75% reduction in capacity, where you are looking at a UNC type contraction. Those are too extreme; no way we do that.
At least in my opinion.