Guerrier 2021 Draft

[UpstateSM]

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28th pick in the preseason

 

[OrangeDW]

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28th pick in the preseason

yikes

 

[721Comstock]

yikes

“That’s why they play the games”.

Um, yeah.
Preseason anything is nearly worthless.
Almost like Greensboro.

 

[br801]

I mean...if he’s still gotta develop a handle and an outside shot - why would the NBA be interested?


If he was 6’9 and jumped out of the gym with all the measurables the NBA scouts go nuts over, maybe.

As far as I know he’s about 6’6, with solid college athleticism. He’s not Jerami Grant athletically/measurable wise.

I’m trying to think of another forward we had that left early beyond McCullough(6’10-6’11) , Carmelo(GOAT freshman), and Donte Greene(6’9, long, 3 point range).

Guerrier would seem to project as a 3 at the next level. I'm not sure he possesses many of the requisite skills needed at this time (nor the ideal size), but he could be a hell of a college player for the next few years.

 

[chugg21]

Guerrier would seem to project as a 3 at the next level. I'm not sure he possesses many of the requisite skills needed at this time (nor the ideal size), but he could be a hell of a college player for the next few years.

Paul Harris with a little more height, a little less athleticism and a lot more on/off court IQ.

 

[Trueblue25]

It was from the Post Standard, if I recall. They hyped him as our next guy that might be one and done, which was pretty goofy IMO.

He was on draft projections on multiple sites before this season. All that stuffs usually ridiculous though.

 

[TinyManInside]

I think QG can be a great asset for the program. He has improved measurably during the season. It’s really nice to have someone who can make contested interior shots and does all the dirty work... but as far as NBA goes his size/athleticism vs style of game just doesn’t mesh. He’s really strong... but not overly quick, and plays below the rim with not great lift... if he were 6-10 then you’d say ‘so what?’, but at 6-6 that doesn’t work so well in the NBA. He’s gotta greatly improve perimeter skills. I think he has GREAT upside as a college player and that’s what I’m worried about. If he develops a pro skill set it will only help the team succeed. Let’s hope!

 

[Red Holzman]

With all the fanfare, then trying to figure out if early season QG disaster was the same guy-
Just happy to see QG's improvement to justify the hype, and now showing promise as SU Enforcer inside.

Can't figure out NBA "draft on potential" stuff, so not even going there

 

[CA Monk]

Guerrier and the 2021 Draft is not a thing.
If it becomes a thing I’ll be happy to eat my words.

 

[TinyManInside]

Best case scenario you compare him to a montrezl Harrell type of player... but Harrel has 3 inches on QG and a ton of explosiveness that frankly QG does not have. So it’s an uphill battle.

 

[BurrowsSMG]

Yikes. If folks would like an explainer on why he projects to the NBA the way he does, I'll be happy to get more specific. Outside of that, I'll just say that NBA scouts have been on QG for a long, long time -- before he ever showed up at Syracuse -- and the stats he puts up in an offense that doesn't run anything for him don't mean a thing to them.

 

[br801]

Yikes. If folks would like an explainer on why he projects to the NBA the way he does, I'll be happy to get more specific. Outside of that, I'll just say that NBA scouts have been on QG for a long, long time -- before he ever showed up at Syracuse -- and the stats he puts up in an offense that doesn't run anything for him don't mean a thing to them.

Sure, go for it.

 

[rocklloyd]

Yikes. If folks would like an explainer on why he projects to the NBA the way he does, I'll be happy to get more specific. Outside of that, I'll just say that NBA scouts have been on QG for a long, long time -- before he ever showed up at Syracuse -- and the stats he puts up in an offense that doesn't run anything for him don't mean a thing to them.

I’d like an explainer. I’m not a basketball scout but have been watching college basketball for 40 years. My eye is pretty well calibrated as to who will make it to next level (except for Tyler ennis).

 

[jdubs30]

Goodman blurb said it all - a scorer with a good perimeter game and an NBA body

 

[BurrowsSMG]

I’d like an explainer. I’m not a basketball scout but have been watching college basketball for 40 years. My eye is pretty well calibrated as to who will make it to next level (except for Tyler ennis).

I'm happy to break down the thought process of some of the NBA folks on QG. I'll put a tl;dr at the bottom.

Biggest thing for scouts with QG right now is he has all the things you can't teach: Size, athleticism, NBA frame/body. The things he's struggling at are all teachable -- the shooting form is strong, so that tells us he just needs minor tweaks to footwork and more reps.

The shooting stats are certainly iffy, but scouts know he's playing in a guard-dominant offense that doesn't run any plays for him. A key thing scouts will want to see him improve at is the free throw shooting -- this tells us whether or not he has a balanced, mechanically-sound shooting motion or if he needs a rebuild. Studies have shown FT shooting in college has a strong correlation to 3-point shooting in the NBA.

Defensively, steals and blocks have a strong correlation to being an outstanding defender as they show the ability to anticipate the play. He's at 0.8 blocks per game from a forward spot, which is fantastic, and the 0.5 steals is solid, too. The athleticism/body tells scouts he'll be a good on-ball defender at the next level, and they'll find out at the combine almost instantly if the zone hurt him in any way when he plays 5v5. I expect it won't and it's just a talking point for analysts to fill time.

He likely projects as a 3-and-D type player in the NBA, which is super, super desirable right now. Biggest knock is probably the foul trouble. That shows us he's undisciplined and takes into question his decision-making skills. Again, those are likely fixable (unless you're Dolezaj and Sidibe, who are both on Year 3 of their ACC Hackathon).

He's certainly a ways off and I think his stock in general is lower than it was coming into Syracuse, though I think a lot of that is his role in the offense isn't what scouts hoped it would be. In limited opportunities on offense, he's shown an ability to slash to the rim as well as battle against bigger players for rebounds, which tells us he great body control.

While he may technically be "small" for a SF, that's mostly referring to some of the stars that have fantastic size. I think I saw a PJ Tucker comp in here that I like, though I think QG has a higher ceiling based on the athleticism. I know PJ Tucker isn't a super sexy name fans may want to foam at the mouth over, but that will get the bag from literally any NBA team, and that's what's important here. I know fans would like former SU players to be stars, but it's important to remember that there's only like 15-20 actual stars in that league. It's OK to be a role player and, to be quite honest, that's what the majority of the draft is shooting for.

TL;DR

He's good at the things you can't teach (size, body, athleticism). Has strong framework for his shooting mechanics which says he just needs minor adjustments or more reps. Steals/blocks tell us he likely defends at a high level in the NBA because of an ability to read the play. Biggest knock is the foul trouble -- calls into question his decision making. Scouts will consider his role in the offense (trying to rebound Buddy's bricks). In limited action has shown an ability to slash, run in transition, which is a priority at the next level.

 

[rocklloyd]

I'm happy to break down the thought process of some of the NBA folks on QG. I'll put a tl;dr at the bottom.

Biggest thing for scouts with QG right now is he has all the things you can't teach: Size, athleticism, NBA frame/body. The things he's struggling at are all teachable -- the shooting form is strong, so that tells us he just needs minor tweaks to footwork and more reps.

The shooting stats are certainly iffy, but scouts know he's playing in a guard-dominant offense that doesn't run any plays for him. A key thing scouts will want to see him improve at is the free throw shooting -- this tells us whether or not he has a balanced, mechanically-sound shooting motion or if he needs a rebuild. Studies have shown FT shooting in college has a strong correlation to 3-point shooting in the NBA.

Defensively, steals and blocks have a strong correlation to being an outstanding defender as they show the ability to anticipate the play. He's at 0.8 blocks per game from a forward spot, which is fantastic, and the 0.5 steals is solid, too. The athleticism/body tells scouts he'll be a good on-ball defender at the next level, and they'll find out at the combine almost instantly if the zone hurt him in any way when he plays 5v5. I expect it won't and it's just a talking point for analysts to fill time.

He likely projects as a 3-and-D type player in the NBA, which is super, super desirable right now. Biggest knock is probably the foul trouble. That shows us he's undisciplined and takes into question his decision-making skills. Again, those are likely fixable (unless you're Dolezaj and Sidibe, who are both on Year 3 of their ACC Hackathon).

He's certainly a ways off and I think his stock in general is lower than it was coming into Syracuse, though I think a lot of that is his role in the offense isn't what scouts hoped it would be. In limited opportunities on offense, he's shown an ability to slash to the rim as well as battle against bigger players for rebounds, which tells us he great body control.

While he may technically be "small" for a SF, that's mostly referring to some of the stars that have fantastic size. I think I saw a PJ Tucker comp in here that I like, though I think QG has a higher ceiling based on the athleticism. I know PJ Tucker isn't a super s e xy name fans may want to foam at the mouth over, but that will get the bag from literally any NBA team, and that's what's important here. I know fans would like former SU players to be stars, but it's important to remember that there's only like 15-20 actual stars in that league. It's OK to be a role player and, to be quite honest, that's what the majority of the draft is shooting for.

TL;DR

He's good at the things you can't teach (size, body, athleticism). Has strong framework for his shooting mechanics which says he just needs minor adjustments or more reps. Steals/blocks tell us he likely defends at a high level in the NBA because of an ability to read the play. Biggest knock is the foul trouble -- calls into question his decision making. Scouts will consider his role in the offense (trying to rebound Buddy's bricks). In limited action has shown an ability to slash, run in transition, which is a priority at the next level.

thank you, fair comments. I would need to see tremendous improvements in shooting before I thought he was NBA material. Again, I know nothing and I fully acknowledge it.

 

[OttoMets]

I'm happy to break down the thought process of some of the NBA folks on QG. I'll put a tl;dr at the bottom.

Biggest thing for scouts with QG right now is he has all the things you can't teach: Size, athleticism, NBA frame/body. The things he's struggling at are all teachable -- the shooting form is strong, so that tells us he just needs minor tweaks to footwork and more reps.

The shooting stats are certainly iffy, but scouts know he's playing in a guard-dominant offense that doesn't run any plays for him. A key thing scouts will want to see him improve at is the free throw shooting -- this tells us whether or not he has a balanced, mechanically-sound shooting motion or if he needs a rebuild. Studies have shown FT shooting in college has a strong correlation to 3-point shooting in the NBA.

Defensively, steals and blocks have a strong correlation to being an outstanding defender as they show the ability to anticipate the play. He's at 0.8 blocks per game from a forward spot, which is fantastic, and the 0.5 steals is solid, too. The athleticism/body tells scouts he'll be a good on-ball defender at the next level, and they'll find out at the combine almost instantly if the zone hurt him in any way when he plays 5v5. I expect it won't and it's just a talking point for analysts to fill time.

He likely projects as a 3-and-D type player in the NBA, which is super, super desirable right now. Biggest knock is probably the foul trouble. That shows us he's undisciplined and takes into question his decision-making skills. Again, those are likely fixable (unless you're Dolezaj and Sidibe, who are both on Year 3 of their ACC Hackathon).

He's certainly a ways off and I think his stock in general is lower than it was coming into Syracuse, though I think a lot of that is his role in the offense isn't what scouts hoped it would be. In limited opportunities on offense, he's shown an ability to slash to the rim as well as battle against bigger players for rebounds, which tells us he great body control.

While he may technically be "small" for a SF, that's mostly referring to some of the stars that have fantastic size. I think I saw a PJ Tucker comp in here that I like, though I think QG has a higher ceiling based on the athleticism. I know PJ Tucker isn't a super s e xy name fans may want to foam at the mouth over, but that will get the bag from literally any NBA team, and that's what's important here. I know fans would like former SU players to be stars, but it's important to remember that there's only like 15-20 actual stars in that league. It's OK to be a role player and, to be quite honest, that's what the majority of the draft is shooting for.

TL;DR

He's good at the things you can't teach (size, body, athleticism). Has strong framework for his shooting mechanics which says he just needs minor adjustments or more reps. Steals/blocks tell us he likely defends at a high level in the NBA because of an ability to read the play. Biggest knock is the foul trouble -- calls into question his decision making. Scouts will consider his role in the offense (trying to rebound Buddy's bricks). In limited action has shown an ability to slash, run in transition, which is a priority at the next level.

Appreciate the detailed reply, I mean that sincerely, but I'm skeptical that any scout believes he has plus athleticism. Maybe someone's giving him a cursory look or is conflating the frame with other athletic traits. I mean, the kid barely gets above the rim on dunk attempts and has no second leap at all.

Wouldn't be the first time I'm wrong about someone's NBA prospects, but that's a fairly objective weakness that I perceive.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

One thing unsaid: he's not very athletic. Big frame, sure, but he's not a good leaper and he's not unusually fast. And he's probably 6'6".

So...no. I'm optimistic he'll improve as a college basketball player, but draft talk was kind of strange last summer and is even stranger now that we've seen him play like 25 games.

Also, how funny was it that during crunch time he made a D-U-M-B backward pass to Dolezaj in the corner after an inbound, 25,000 people knew it was a dumb pass, Boeheim brought him over for a little animated instruction...and then on the next possession he did the same thing?

I wasn't even mad, it was just funny (it was also funny that my mother said "I haven't played basketball since CYO ball in 1965 and I know you don't ever make that pass"). And I kind of felt bad for him.

Seems like a legit 6’8 to me ... assuming most programs are exaggerating their heights... qg looks about the same size as the other teams 6-7 to 6-8 dudes ..

 

[Cusefan0307]

I have not seen the perimeter game scouts speak of. He hasn't made any 3's and hes made maybe 3 jumpers all year. Pretty much every shot he makes is right at the rim. I do think he has a solid first step and decent handle that could improve, but he's a longgggg way away of having a "good" perimeter game.

 

[MSOrange]

I have not seen the perimeter game scouts speak of. He hasn't made any 3's and hes made maybe 3 jumpers all year. Pretty much every shot he makes is right at the rim. I do think he has a solid first step and decent handle that could improve, but he's a longgggg way away of having a "good" perimeter game.

He showed at least some in Italy, but that is where he left what he had of it.

 

[BurrowsSMG]

Here's an old scouting report I found on Guerrier from 2017 that echoes some stuff I said above from DraftExpress. I dropped some highlights below if you can't click the link. I think his shooting mechanics have improved since this was written, though I'd personally like to see his release get a little quicker and he still shoots with his elbow out. I think he's closer to just needing some small adjustments rather than a complete rebuild. Not sure where he was in 2017 as a playmaker, but there's still a lot of room to improve in that department.

Strengths:
-Excellent physical profile for an NBA wing prospect. 6'6 with a 6'10 wingspan. Nice frame that will fill out well in time. Wide shoulders. Proportionate upper and lower body.
-Fluid athlete who can play above the rim in space. Fills the lanes in transition. Quick first step. Moves really well overall.
-Good straight line slasher thanks to his athleticism and stride length.

Weaknesses:
-Overall skill level a work in progress. Limited to mostly transition finishes and straight line drives at this stage. -Shooting mechanics leave much to be desired. Staggered feet, elbow out, forward jumper. Not the most natural stroke.
-Not going to create much offense in the half court. Handle is a bit raw versus pressure. Not comfortable pulling up off the dribble.
-Finesse as a finisher has room to improve. Relies more on tools.

 

[tbonezone]

Guerrier. rench for warrior.

 

[Newhouser]

Appreciate the detailed reply, I mean that sincerely, but I'm skeptical that any scout believes he has plus athleticism. Maybe someone's giving him a cursory look or is conflating the frame with other athletic traits. I mean, the kid barely gets above the rim on dunk attempts and has no second leap at all.

Wouldn't be the first time I'm wrong about someone's NBA prospects, but that's a fairly objective weakness that I perceive.

I agree - the elite athleticism, like the outside shot - has been kept under wraps thus far.

 

[007]

Here's an old scouting report I found on Guerrier from 2017 that echoes some stuff I said above from DraftExpress. I dropped some highlights below if you can't click the link. I think his shooting mechanics have improved since this was written, though I'd personally like to see his release get a little quicker and he still shoots with his elbow out. I think he's closer to just needing some small adjustments rather than a complete rebuild. Not sure where he was in 2017 as a playmaker, but there's still a lot of room to improve in that department.

Strengths:
-Excellent physical profile for an NBA wing prospect. 6'6 with a 6'10 wingspan. Nice frame that will fill out well in time. Wide shoulders. Proportionate upper and lower body.
-Fluid athlete who can play above the rim in space. Fills the lanes in transition. Quick first step. Moves really well overall.
-Good straight line slasher thanks to his athleticism and stride length.

Weaknesses:
-Overall skill level a work in progress. Limited to mostly transition finishes and straight line drives at this stage. -Shooting mechanics leave much to be desired. Staggered feet, elbow out, forward jumper. Not the most natural stroke.
-Not going to create much offense in the half court. Handle is a bit raw versus pressure. Not comfortable pulling up off the dribble.
-Finesse as a finisher has room to improve. Relies more on tools.

Ben, thank you for all you provide to the board. I appreciate your measured and researched based responses.

With respect to the "older" scouting report, it seems much more on point than the stuff you listed from DraftExpress, IMO. His shooting mechanics...there is a LONG way still to go there despite the improvements you noted.

As stated before, I really like Q's potential as a college player. "A work in progress" is probably the most accurate way to describe his current skill set. I find it unlikely that he will appear on any current projections for 2021 draft.

 

[tbonezone]

and garçon means boy