Here is what I can PROMISE all the "fire Shafer" people

[Millhouse]

for this to have any impact, you need to rank all the teams by td% in conference play.

i did, cfbstats makes that easy

 

[Crusty]

Do you think he'd come?

He might fit better at Louisville.

 

[TheCusian]

either 2014 counts or it doesn't if lester isn't going to be dinged for that 1-6 finish, fine. but to leave it off his assessment and then give him credit for doing better, that sounds like sandbagging to me. we are not that good at scoring TD on offense. it's much easier easy to score from the 25 (OT) and we got 2 TD in 3 extra possessions there plus 3 TD not by the offense. that is a lot through only 6 games. if you want to make sense of the gap in yards per play and TDs, there it is. yards per play is predictive. OT and defensive scores, not so much. this will even out. either YPP has to come up or PPG will come down. you aren't going to get 20% of your TDs from defense special teams and overtime in the long run

Makes sense.

But if everyone was bagging on Mcit for needing Dixon to score in OT vs Nova - we should still be giving credit to Lester for scoring TD's in OT. Especially given that you've been all over the red zone % doesn't matter, but TD in the red zone % does.

 

[TheCusian]

i did, cfbstats makes that easy

Still makes no sense. In conference stats should be compared vs other teams in our conference not nationally. Sun Belt teams don't have a lot in common with the B1G. Etc.

P5 maybe is helpful?!

 

[tep624]

mostly kids would only leave if the coach is cleaning house or the old kids don't fit the system. Dungey isn't going anymore if a high flying offensive coach is hired.

Fair enough but kids leave for a variety of reasons. Saying that kids only transfer down is incorrect.

 

[djorange1989]

One thing to remember with Shafer is he inherited a team with middling Big East talent. Except he has had to play in the ACC from day 1. There is some dead weight in the ACC, but the speed and overall talent is miles ahead of the old Big East . The man deserves year 4. No bowl next year and a change has to be made. Reed needs to go after this year, Adam needs to be moved off the OL. as far as these next 6 games this year? Dungey needs to throw a lot more, run less. Fredericks needs more touches. Morris and McFarlane need to be on the bench. Give Strickland some carries, he is better than either Morris or McFarlane. The D? sorry, I am not that smart!

 

[K Otto XLIV]

Still makes no sense. In conference stats should be compared vs other teams in our conference not nationally. Sun Belt teams don't have a lot in common with the B1G. Etc.

P5 maybe is helpful?!

Nationally ranking are crap. Even using P5 is a bit flawed due to SOS. IMO the best rankings to look at are our ACC games vs the other Atlantic teams. But you have to wait until the year is over to use those. That is as apples and apples as you can get in college football. I am not all that crazy about the computer rankings either as they make a lot of assumptions but nationally they are the best thing we have to compare.

 

[Crusty]

that's not remotely true at all. Welsh and Robinson did not regress. Kelly and Reddish did not regress. Simmons and Arcineaga did not regrees. Raymon has not regressed. What other names are out there. DDavis? Lynch ? Hodge?

Robinson's play has been very weak. He got blown up all day vs USF and UVA and was really bad in OT. I don't think you want to hang your argument on him.

 

[K Otto XLIV]

Robinson's play has been very weak. He got blown up all day vs USF and UVA and was really bad in OT. I don't think you want to hang your argument on him.

Pretty sure he meant Micah

 

[PhatOrange]

Correct. There is no excuse for this D being as poor as it is. SS has had the same system in for 7 years. The D was expected to be young but not this bad. SS faith in Lester has worked out and I didn't think it would.

People need to realize SS took over from 25-25 not 10-35 that DM took over from.

I don't think the defense expected to lose all the guys they lost either. Williams, Sloan, Isaiah Johnson, Coleman and Jalen Harvey. That's 5 defensive tackles in just over a year. 5. That's why 3 freshman are playing. NOBODY would have anticipated and prepared for that. Plus Eskridge went pro.

The failure to have an older safety or two might be the ONLY recruiting failure defensively. Although safety Dontez Ford transfered out in 2013. He might be starting for Pitt right now.

 

[PhatOrange]

Robinson's play has been very weak. He got blown up all day vs USF and UVA and was really bad in OT. I don't think you want to hang your argument on him.

Pretty sure we were talking about defense. Micah Robinson.

 

[tep624]

Robinson's play has been very weak. He got blown up all day vs USF and UVA and was really bad in OT. I don't think you want to hang your argument on him.

I'm starting to wonder if that Robinson (Nick) is banged up. Starting to have shades of last year all over again.

 

[Alsacs]

Uhh 25-25 is still a rebuild...

The program wasn't a dumpster fire when SS was hired. He was given the keys to continue the momentum. Right now he is 13-18 he needs atleast 1 more win this year. 13-24 means you have gone backwards. I don't believe that record deserves a 4th year.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

The program wasn't a dumpster fire when SS was hired. He was given the keys to continue the momentum. Right now he is 13-18 he needs atleast 1 more win this year. 13-24 means you have gone backwards. I don't believe that record deserves a 4th year.

He was handed the keys to a healthy Terrel Hunt.

Once Hunt was lost in 2014, did it really come as a surprise that we would only win 1 more game that season?

How much blame should Shafer get for only having Wilson / Kimble / Long left in the bullpen. Clearly Shaf/Lester can ID decent QB talent if given enough time.

 

[dollarbill44]

Are we?

Against Nova we had 3 FGs (counting Dixon as FG as O didn't score) & TD. Against CMU we had a FG & 4 TDs. MD was 2 FGs, missed FG (not McDonald's fault), 2 TDs, and an INT (not McDonald's fault). ND was a FG, missed FG (not McDonald's fault), and a TD. Louisville was 2 FGs.

IMO the best way to evaluate a Redzone O is by TDs. TOs are not the fault of the OC. Neither are missed FGs. So in 2014 we had 20 possessions and scored 8 TDs for a 40% rate. This year we are getting TDs at a 57% rate. It is much better but it is still 87th in the nation.

Now I'm confused. Are we blaming OCs for lack of scoring or not? Aren't TOs and missed FGs indicative of a failing offense? If you really want to get technical, even successful FGs are offensive failures since you mostly kick FGs only after the offense fails to score a TD (obviously end of half/end of game is different).

 

[Dcuse]

the only way they're going to move the ball in this offense is for dungey to be superman freelancing.

they don't seem that interested in throwing easy passes to WR, they can't run the ball, the hybrid is not confusing enough to offset o line issues to put it kindly

lester gets 2 years as offensive coordinator learning on the fly because of unexpected qbs. this guy is really lucky. see, this year doesn't count because his QB was unexpectedly good!

3 second half td's with a walkon QB in this LUCKY guys offense. Great analysis there.

 

[cuse309]

What's with all the fire Shafer talk?
Most people predicted 4-5 wins this year.

Most people predicted that the defense would be a work in progress, and the offense would need to be able to move the ball to keep us in games.

Most people predicted that with 4-5 wins, as long as the team shows improvement overall, i.e. being competitive, winning more games than last year etc., that Shafer would get a 4th year.

Not many people said if all those things happen, Shafer should be fired anyway.

Ok, so all those things have happened, and last I checked NC state and BC are VERY winnable games, hell a bowl is still possible, yet it seems the majority of the people want him gone now.

We have short memories.

 

[K Otto XLIV]

Now I'm confused. Are we blaming OCs for lack of scoring or not? Aren't TOs and missed FGs indicative of a failing offense? If you really want to get technical, even successful FGs are offensive failures since you mostly kick FGs only after the offense fails to score a TD (obviously end of half/end of game is different).

I agree that it is all about TDs. Which is why I used TD%.

 

[tep624]

What's with all the fire Shafer talk?
Most people predicted 4-5 wins this year.

Most people predicted that the defense would be a work in progress, and the offense would need to be able to move the ball to keep us in games.

Most people predicted that with 4-5 wins, as long as the team shows improvement overall, i.e. being competitive, winning more games than last year etc., that Shafer would get a 4th year.

Not many people said if all those things happen, Shafer should be fired anyway.

Ok, so all those things have happened, and last I checked NC state and BC are VERY winnable games, hell a bowl is still possible, yet it seems the majority of the people want him gone now.

We have short memories.

I think there are some people (no not you millhouse) that started posting here again after we went 3-1 with the good showing against LSU and the obvious young talent that exists. With the expectation that we would keep winning and start to resemble a Mcnabb era team. Now it hasn't happened...and well this is the result.

 

[billsin01]

Well, I mean if you PROMISE...

There isn't enough straw in the world to build this man. There's like a half-dozen people passionately arguing that he be fired. Most everyone else (a.k.a. the vast majority) is just expressing some level of frustration and disappointment at the past 2 games.

Also, are you emailing Coyle this fact? I mean, the man should be told, right? What if he assesses the program at the end of the season and determines a change should be made? I assume he'd be an idiot for doing that?

Lastly... I don't know about this Bill Belichek guy, but if we hired Bill Belichick we'd be much, much better. That I'm sure of.

I'm glad someone pointed out the straw man issue here. I absolutely fall into the category of frustrated by what I feel is rather poor in-game coaching but I don't really know that they have to fire Shafer.

But the other problem I have with this argument is this: So then what is the future of Syracuse football? If there aren't any coaches out there who can make this more than an occasionally competitive football program with grandiose dreams of an 8-5 season every now and again (and I'm not entirely sold Shafer is even headed in that direction), then what's the point of following the program? Might as well just hire Joe Adam as the head coach and save some coin.

Bottom line is that you have a new AD (and new ADs usually want their own guy) and a program that has not shown much in three years post-DM. Firing a guy and hiring a new coach is far from a guaranteed fix, but I see no evidence to suggest that this university couldn't improve on the guy leading the program. Does Shafer need to be fired? Probably not. But is there a distinct possibility that we have seen close to the best he has to offer? I would say yes and I would say that's not a terribly great feeling.

 

[elimunelson]

Correct. There is no excuse for this D being as poor as it is. SS has had the same system in for 7 years. The D was expected to be young but not this bad. SS faith in Lester has worked out and I didn't think it would.

People need to realize SS took over from 25-25 not 10-35 that DM took over from.

I'm glad someone pointed out the straw man issue here. I absolutely fall into the category of frustrated by what I feel is rather poor in-game coaching but I don't really know that they have to fire Shafer.

But the other problem I have with this argument is this: So then what is the future of Syracuse football? If there aren't any coaches out there who can make this more than an occasionally competitive football program with grandiose dreams of an 8-5 season every now and again (and I'm not entirely sold Shafer is even headed in that direction), then what's the point of following the program? Might as well just hire Joe Adam as the head coach and save some coin.

Bottom line is that you have a new AD (and new ADs usually want their own guy) and a program that has not shown much in three years post-DM. Firing a guy and hiring a new coach is far from a guaranteed fix, but I see no evidence to suggest that this university couldn't improve on the guy leading the program. Does Shafer need to be fired? Probably not. But is there a distinct possibility that we have seen close to the best he has to offer? I would say yes and I would say that's not a terribly great feeling.

You articulated much better how i feel about Shafer. The entire thing is concerning more regarding the future if Shafer can't right this ship.

 

[billsin01]

I think there are some people (no not you millhouse) that started posting here again after we went 3-1 with the good showing against LSU and the obvious young talent that exists. With the expectation that we would keep winning and start to resemble a Mcnabb era team. Now it hasn't happened...and well this is the result.

I guess the issue you run into is that if you're in year 3 and you're team is seen to have a 4-5 win ceiling, there may well be a problem.

 

[tep624]

I'm glad someone pointed out the straw man issue here. I absolutely fall into the category of frustrated by what I feel is rather poor in-game coaching but I don't really know that they have to fire Shafer.

But the other problem I have with this argument is this: So then what is the future of Syracuse football? If there aren't any coaches out there who can make this more than an occasionally competitive football program with grandiose dreams of an 8-5 season every now and again (and I'm not entirely sold Shafer is even headed in that direction), then what's the point of following the program? Might as well just hire Joe Adam as the head coach and save some coin.

Bottom line is that you have a new AD (and new ADs usually want their own guy) and a program that has not shown much in three years post-DM. Firing a guy and hiring a new coach is far from a guaranteed fix, but I see no evidence to suggest that this university couldn't improve on the guy leading the program. Does Shafer need to be fired? Probably not. But is there a distinct possibility that we have seen close to the best he has to offer? I would say yes and I would say that's not a terribly great feeling.

I just want to get back to the point where 7-4 or 6-5 is a down year. I don't expect the 87-92 run where we had 3 10 win seasons in that stretch and two top 10 final AP rankings. That's a stretch that most programs don't get.

6-9 wins, bowl every year, no losing seasons. I would be happy with that, and if we get a 10 or 11 winner in there because all the stars align, then fantastic.

 

[OrangePA]

I highly doubt that. First this transfer talk is silly. It just doesn't happen. This isn't basketball. If a kid wants to leave their options are limited to 1AA. Secondly you are assuming that the new HC isn't a better recruiter than Shafer and doesn't have recruiting ties to high schools already. Then you are also assuming that the new HC is as bad at actually coaching football as Shafer has been. Unless you bring in GRob it is almost impossible to be worse than we currently are. Even if Shafer makes it to next year he will have our 2nd worst winning % of our last 7 coaches. He is not even as good as Maloney.

One problem is that nobody knows if the next guy is Greg Robinson, or Todd Graham or Bobby Petrino who leave after one season for a better job or Mike Haywood who gets into a domestic mess that forces him out, or Steve Kragethorpe who seems perfect for the job but fails miserably, or Steve Sarkisian, an apparent star whose dependency issues prevent him from coaching.

Pitt is a very good example of a program that presumed that a change in the head coaching position would yield an immediate and substantial upward change in the trajectory of the program. Instead the change in 2004 resulted in a merry-go-round of coaches and a striking and unsustainable level of instability - Walt Harris, Dave Wannstedt, Mike Haywood, Todd Graham, Paul Chryst and now Pat Narduzzi - six head coaches in ten years. So many changes in direction. So much time, money and energy wasted.

There is something to be said for patience and stability.

 

[tep624]

I guess the issue you run into is that if you're in year 3 and you're team is seen to have a 4-5 win ceiling, there may well be a problem.

Well we knew that going in. Hell Stewart Mandel picked us to win 2 games this year.

I think it all comes back to how good you really feel the 2014 team was. Was there 4 win talent there, regardless of who was doing the coaching, or was there 8 win talent there?