Here is what I can PROMISE all the "fire Shafer" people

[OrangeXtreme]

Does Shafer need to be fired? Probably not. But is there a distinct possibility that we have seen close to the best he has to offer? I would say yes and I would say that's not a terribly great feeling.

I would say no.

Year 1 ended in a bowl victory.

Year 2 ended when QB1 was injured and QB's 2, 3 and 4 were ineffective or injured. Didn't help that we had the wrong OC in place (a mistake which has been corrected).

Year 3 is still in progress. QB1 injured again, and QB2 is a true frosh who's going to make mistakes.

I'd love to see what Shafer-Lester-Dungey can do with this offense after they get a full Spring Practice in.

 

[K Otto XLIV]

One problem is that nobody knows if the next guy is Greg Robinson, or Todd Graham or Bobby Petrino who leave after one season for a better job or Mike Haywood who gets into a domestic mess that forces him out, or Steve Kragethorpe who seems perfect for the job but fails miserably, or Steve Sarkisian, an apparent star whose dependency issues prevent him from coaching.

Pitt is a very good example of a program that presumed that a change in the head coaching position would yield an immediate and substantial upward change in the trajectory of the program. Instead the change in 2004 resulted in a merry-go-round of coaches and a striking and unsustainable level of instability - Walt Harris, Dave Wannstedt, Mike Haywood, Todd Graham, Paul Chryst and now Pat Narduzzi - six head coaches in ten years. So many changes in direction. So much time, money and energy wasted.

There is something to be said for patience and stability.

Sign me up for Pitt or Cincy. High turnover but they still make Bowls every year. Is the turnover keeping them from becoming a good team? Yes, but there is no excuse for not being a mediocre team. I rather have a revolving door and make a Bowl every year than have stability and only hope to make a Bowl. For some reason we have set the bar very low for Shafer.

Both SU & Pitt shared a Big East Title in 2004 and fired their HC. Since then Pitt has had 4 HC actually coach a game yet have failed to get 6 Ws only twice. SU has had fewer HCs (3) and has achieved 6 Ws only 3 times. They have made better hires than us.

During that same stretch Cincy has had 4 HCs as well. Yet they also have failed to get 6 Ws only twice. Again they have been better at hiring HCs than SU. We have had more stability than either of those programs yet we have been a lot less successful. Stability is a bad thing if you do not have a good HC.

 

[tipphill]

I am a supporter of Shafer and not only want him to succeed but find silly any talk about letting him go this year or even next. BUT, if discussions are taking place or will take place on whether to let him go, player transfers or recruiting losses should never ever be considered.

i am not disagreeing but what is your logic regarding recruiting?we seem to be trending up----are u considering the impact of a name coach ? not sure what u mean?

 

[hoopsupstate]

I'm not going to go back and research each school's schedules, but SU has over-scheduled for the past several years. SU also lost the home field advantage against some very good teams by playing games in NY or NJ. Good or bad, that's our situation. By looking at the lack of support CNY gives to this team, moving games to NYC might be a better option. The actual butts in seats for our first three home games were 19,000 +, 18,000+ and 18,000+. The numbers shared were seats sold. I'm afraid this weekend's game with Pitt will also be an embarrassing number of less than 30,000.

 

[Crusty]

Pretty sure we were talking about defense. Micah Robinson.

Ah, yes, I was referring to Nick..

 

[tipphill]

With 3 different QB's and mid game "sudden" QB situations. Red Zone is roughly a billion times better.

so that is a minus 10?

 

[Jack_Ball]

I'm not going to go back and research each school's schedules, but SU has over-scheduled for the past several years. SU also lost the home field advantage against some very good teams by playing games in NY or NJ. Good or bad, that's our situation. By looking at the lack of support CNY gives to this team, moving games to NYC might be a better option. The actual butts in seats for our first three home games were 19,000 +, 18,000+ and 18,000+. The numbers shared were seats sold. I'm afraid this weekend's game with Pitt will also be an embarrassing number of less than 30,000.

Does attendance factor into the decision at all? If we go 4-8 and Shaf is given another year attendance would be even worse than this year? Does Coyle view this as important factor if we are only filling half the dome? That is an awful lot of money left on the table?

 

[cuse309]

Last I checked Shafer was never a head coach anywhere. There has to be a learning curve for him just like our young players. If Dungey came out and laid an egg in his starts, would we want his scholarship revoked, or would we allow him to develop?

 

[Crusty]

The EXACT same position we are in right now in 3 years. Probably worse- and I don't care if we hire Bill Belichek. Brand new recruiting grounds which will take time to infiltrate- brand new systems to teach with painful growing pains-a depleted recruiting class and- very likely- major transfers from current team.
Other than that we should be just fine.

To be devils's advocate, everyone seems to be discounting a new coach's contacts and recruiting ability. It is simply not a given that there has to be a three or four year dry spell with a new coach. If you go 3-9 and 3-9 can it be much worse?
If Coyle keeps Shafer after a second disastrous year, he owns it.

 

[FAL]

I'm not going to go back and research each school's schedules, but SU has over-scheduled for the past several years. SU also lost the home field advantage against some very good teams by playing games in NY or NJ. Good or bad, that's our situation. By looking at the lack of support CNY gives to this team, moving games to NYC might be a better option. The actual butts in seats for our first three home games were 19,000 +, 18,000+ and 18,000+. The numbers shared were seats sold. I'm afraid this weekend's game with Pitt will also be an embarrassing number of less than 30,000.

I like your first three sentences.

 

[KaiserUEO]

One problem is that nobody knows if the next guy is Greg Robinson, or Todd Graham or Bobby Petrino who leave after one season for a better job or Mike Haywood who gets into a domestic mess that forces him out, or Steve Kragethorpe who seems perfect for the job but fails miserably, or Steve Sarkisian, an apparent star whose dependency issues prevent him from coaching.

Pitt is a very good example of a program that presumed that a change in the head coaching position would yield an immediate and substantial upward change in the trajectory of the program. Instead the change in 2004 resulted in a merry-go-round of coaches and a striking and unsustainable level of instability - Walt Harris, Dave Wannstedt, Mike Haywood, Todd Graham, Paul Chryst and now Pat Narduzzi - six head coaches in ten years. So many changes in direction. So much time, money and energy wasted.

There is something to be said for patience and stability.

Pitt made the top 25 faster than we have.

They've also been to 7, seven, 7, S-E-V-E-N, 7! Straight bowls.

Whatever they're doing, it's working...

 

[K Otto XLIV]

Does attendance factor into the decision at all? If we go 4-8 and Shaf is given another year attendance would be even worse than this year? Does Coyle view this as important factor if we are only filling half the dome? That is an awful lot of money left on the table?

It should be a factor IMO. However since our fan base is so beaten down I think most people would be waiting to see improvement before showing up. If we end 4-8 or 3-9 I think you see 32k a game with Shafer as HC. With a new HC you see around 35k. That isn't a big enough jump to make a decision.

 

[cuse309]

Just a small portion of cfb head coaches total wins through 3 seasons as first time head coach at an FBS school

Shafer has 13 right now...

David Cutcliff- 12
Bill Snyder-13
Doc Holliday 17
Jim Tressel-14
Frank Beamer 11
Bo Schembechler 19
Woody Hayes 18
Art Briles 16
Mark D'antonio 18

Hell coach Mac won 12 games in 3 years. We've all but sainted him since then.

Just sayin'

 

[Alsacs]

Last I checked Shafer was never a head coach anywhere. There has to be a learning curve for him just like our young players. If Dungey came out and laid an egg in his starts, would we want his scholarship revoked, or would we allow him to develop?

HECK NO TO THIS. Wow SS shouldn't have been hired as the HC then. We are in year 3 no to the learning curve crap.
The D has been the same for 7 years. There is no reason for it to be this poor. I have given Lester a lot of props for improving the offense. Hunt not being the QB and Dungey getting that job might have been the best thing for Lester's offense.

We need improvement. If we don't win another game SS has got o to. 13-24 is clearly a step back and sorry I am not accepting 6-6 next year. This season had to be an improvement for next year. 7-6, 3-9, 3-9, 6-6 is not good enough.

 

[cuse309]

HECK NO TO THIS. Wow SS shouldn't have been hired as the HC then. We are in year 3 no to the learning curve crap.
The D has been the same for 7 years. There is no reason for it to be this poor. I have given Lester a lot of props for improving the offense. Hunt not being the QB and Dungey getting that job might have been the best thing for Lester's offense.

We need improvement. If we don't win another game SS has got o to. 13-24 is clearly a step back and sorry I am not accepting 6-6 next year. This season had to be an improvement for next year. 7-6, 3-9, 3-9, 6-6 is not good enough.

See my above post.

 

[Alsacs]

Just a small portion of cfb head coaches total wins through 3 seasons as first time head coach at an FBS school

Shafer has 13 right now...

David Cutcliff- 12
Bill Snyder-13
Doc Holliday 17
Jim Tressel-14
Frank Beamer 11
Bo Schembechler 19
Woody Hayes 18
Art Briles 16
Mark D'antonio 18

Hell coach Mac won 12 games in 3 years. We've all but sainted him since then.

Just sayin'

Snyder took over the worst team of the 1980's and build his teams thru JUCOs
Cutcliffe took over Duke who doesn't give a crap about FB and thus the patience was allowed.
Holliday is the guy I want as the next SU coach
Beamer took over in the 1980's and again FB wasn't the cash cow it is now.
Schembechler and Hayes are irrelevant.
Briles was the President of Texas HSFB coaches association and used those contacts to bring talent into Baylor.
D'Antonio did an excellent job at Cincinnati building that program up and has carried it over to Michigan State

Scott Shafer is not in the league of these guys outside of maybe Holliday.

 

[TheCusian]

HECK NO TO THIS. Wow SS shouldn't have been hired as the HC then. We are in year 3 no to the learning curve crap. The D has been the same for 7 years. There is no reason for it to be this poor. I have given Lester a lot of props for improving the offense. Hunt not being the QB and Dungey getting that job might have been the best thing for Lester's offense. We need improvement. If we don't win another game SS has got o to. 13-24 is clearly a step back and sorry I am not accepting 6-6 next year. This season had to be an improvement for next year. 7-6, 3-9, 3-9, 6-6 is not good enough.

There is a reason. Youth.

 

[anomander]

HCSS should be given through next year, but next year he needs to produce or he's gone. I also don't believe the program would be set back 3 years if the right coach was hired. Marrone was able to have the 2nd best season in the past 12 years in only his 2nd year. I also don't think recruiting or transfers should be considered if the decision is made. Dungey has all but guaranteed HCSS another year, but i'd really like to see HCSS pick up a signature win. Kind of crazy over 31 games our best win is probably vs a 7-5 BC team who didn't have Andre Williams in 2013. He needs to show that he can game plan a team to an unexpected win. We have a ton of young talent, and the eye test tells me we have improved, but we have to start to see the results in the win column.

 

[kcsu]

The EXACT same position we are in right now in 3 years. Probably worse- and I don't care if we hire Bill Belichek. Brand new recruiting grounds which will take time to infiltrate- brand new systems to teach with painful growing pains-a depleted recruiting class and- very likely- major transfers from current team.
Other than that we should be just fine.

Spot on. I agree 100% which is why i believe that the next year is the year that Coyle will make his decision on.

 

[TheCusian]

Snyder took over the worst team of the 1980's and build his teams thru JUCOs Cutcliffe took over Duke who doesn't give a crap about FB and thus the patience was allowed. Holliday is the guy I want as the next SU coach Beamer took over in the 1980's and again FB wasn't the cash cow it is now. Schembechler and Hayes are irrelevant. Briles was the President of Texas HSFB coaches association and used those contacts to bring talent into Baylor. D'Antonio did an excellent job at Cincinnati building that program up and has carried it over to Michigan State Scott Shafer is not in the league of these guys outside of maybe Holliday.

No - point is we don't know that. We have some good signs and some red flags.

Do you think last years team was a true 3 win team?

 

[TheCusian]

HCSS should be given through next year, but next year he needs to produce or he's gone. I also don't believe the program would be set back 3 years if the right coach was hired. Marrone was able to have the 2nd best season in the past 12 years in only his 2nd year. I also don't think recruiting or transfers should be considered if the decision is made. Dungey has all but guaranteed HCSS another year, but i'd really like to see HCSS pick up a signature win. Kind of crazy over 31 games our best win is probably vs a 7-5 BC team who didn't have Andre Williams in 2013. He needs to show that he can game plan a team to an unexpected win. We have a ton of young talent, and the eye test tells me we have improved, but we have to start to see the results in the win column.

They didn't have Williams because we knocked him out of the game.

 

[anomander]

Snyder took over the worst team of the 1980's and build his teams thru JUCOs
Cutcliffe took over Duke who doesn't give a crap about FB and thus the patience was allowed.
Holliday is the guy I want as the next SU coach
Beamer took over in the 1980's and again FB wasn't the cash cow it is now.
Schembechler and Hayes are irrelevant.
Briles was the President of Texas HSFB coaches association and used those contacts to bring talent into Baylor.
D'Antonio did an excellent job at Cincinnati building that program up and has carried it over to Michigan State

Scott Shafer is not in the league of these guys outside of maybe Holliday.

Totally agree. It's all about context. Shafer took over after our best season in 15 years. This wasn't a total rebuild. He was kept to build on the foundation Marrone had laid down. This wasn't a total rebuild from the ground floor up. I hate that argument.

 

[Alsacs]

HCSS should be given through next year, but next year he needs to produce or he's gone. I also don't believe the program would be set back 3 years if the right coach was hired. Marrone was able to have the 2nd best season in the past 12 years in only his 2nd year. I also don't think recruiting or transfers should be considered if the decision is made. Dungey has all but guaranteed HCSS another year, but i'd really like to see HCSS pick up a signature win. Kind of crazy over 31 games our best win is probably vs a 7-5 BC team who didn't have Andre Williams in 2013. He needs to show that he can game plan a team to an unexpected win. We have a ton of young talent, and the eye test tells me we have improved, but we have to start to see the results in the win column.

I would give him another year as long as we win another game this year. We need improvement to sell to the fanbase. I can't believe any P5 school would keep a coach nowadays after back to back 3-9 years. We need 4 wins just to say we are young and improved. 3 wins is not enough for a 4th year.

 

[Finwad32]

Snyder took over the worst team of the 1980's and build his teams thru JUCOs
Cutcliffe took over Duke who doesn't give a crap about FB and thus the patience was allowed.
Holliday is the guy I want as the next SU coach
Beamer took over in the 1980's and again FB wasn't the cash cow it is now.
Schembechler and Hayes are irrelevant.
Briles was the President of Texas HSFB coaches association and used those contacts to bring talent into Baylor.
D'Antonio did an excellent job at Cincinnati building that program up and has carried it over to Michigan State

Scott Shafer is not in the league of these guys outside of maybe Holliday.

Doc Holliday was 5-7 in his 3rd season as a HC at Marshall, just sayin. He's had time to build his system, in a non P-5 conf.

 

[Alsacs]

No - point is we don't know that. We have some good signs and some red flags.

Do you think last years team was a true 3 win team?

To quote Bill Parcells "You are what your record says you are."
Last year's team maybe wins 1 more game with Hunt.