how many 2012 games nationally with qb rating below SU's vs NC State

[Millhouse]

SU vs NC State had a qb rating of 58.17 Saturday

Last year there were 1,675 records of passing data.

40 of the 1675 records had a passer rating of 58.17 or less. That's 2.4 percent. Let's call that your odds of being that bad. Let's also assume that games are totally independent of each other. That means 0.06% (2.4% squared rounded up) are the odds of having 2 games in a row of 58.17 or less

we just had two games in a row with 58.17 or less.

in other words, if you take 1,667 (1/.06%) 2 game stretches, one of them will have qb ratings of under 58.17 for both games.

This is not your ordinary growing pains.

(I promise this didn't take long - cfbstats raw data)

 

[Chip]

We're about 3 inches from completely turning that performance around (my wife tells me this all the time).

That deep pass to Clark was so close, and it's 6. I know it doesn't count because then you could take the data of every other game and throw in the close misses and their #'s would go up too. But man, that TD would have helped the confidence of everyone involved in the passing game. It wasn't like one of Nassib's 10 yard over throws of 2010/2011 where you could set your watch to it.

Ok, it probably doesn't mean much, I just wanted to make the 3 inches comment.

 

[Rocco]

What you fail to mention is that Hunt also had 92 yards rushing and a TD on 11 carries. Several of those runs went for 1st downs as well. What he didn't do with his arm, he made up for with his legs. That's the difference between he and Drew Allen.

Enough already, we know how bad his passing stats were, but let's look at all of his stats. We also won on the road by 2 tds.

 

[Millhouse]

What you fail to mention is that Hunt also had 92 yards rushing and a TD on 11 carries. Several of those runs went for 1st downs as well. What he didn't do with his arm, he made up for with his legs. That's the difference between he and Drew Allen.

Enough already, we know how bad his passing stats were, but let's look at all of his stats. We also won on the road by 2 tds.

of course he ran the ball well. that's why I want him to play.

but it's not like the only mobile quarterback in college football. i don't have the numbers but being able to run like that should probably help open up the passing numbers.

and respectfully, i really doubt you knew how rare it is to have two games in a row with passer rating that low. i had enough suspicion that it was rare to bother with the spreadsheet but i still found it pretty surprising.

 

[PhatOrange]

I think the GT quarterback might have a worse rating against BCS schools.

 

[Pyle]

SU vs NC State had a qb rating of 58.17 Saturday

Last year there were 1,675 records of passing data.

40 of the 1675 records had a passer rating of 58.17 or less. That's 2.4 percent. Let's call that your odds of being that bad. Let's also assume that games are totally independent of each other. That means 0.06% (2.4% squared rounded up) are the odds of having 2 games in a row of 58.17 or less

we just had two games in a row with 58.17 or less.

in other words, if you take 1,667 (1/.06%) 2 game stretches, one of them will have qb ratings of under 58.17 for both games.

This is not your ordinary growing pains.

(I promise this didn't take long - cfbstats raw data)

Good so what I get out of this is that doing this for 3 games in a row in a near impossibility. Passing game improves this weekend!!!!!

 

[Millhouse]

I think the GT quarterback might have a worse rating against BCS schools.

in their losses, close but not quite

http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/player/255/1039471/passing/split.html

his last three games 63, 64, and 81. that's pretty bad too!

you'll only have 3 games in a row that bad .08% of the time. Once per 1250 3 game stretches.

This is quite the matchup this week.

 

[Millhouse]

Good so what I get out of this is that doing this for 3 games in a row in a near impossibility. Passing game improves this weekend!!!!!

Unless you're Georgia Tech, ha.

i'm worried an asteroid is going to hit the stadium

two teams with 2 prior weeks of passer rating below 81 happens once every 14,583 games

81 or lower 9.1% of the time. 1/(9.1%^4) = 14583 ??

i'm starting to doubt my math. 60% of the time, this math is right all the time

this is a game for the ages coming up

 

[KaiserUEO]

Start Allen.....and Hunt.

Allen at QB.

Smith at FB
Prince at RRB
Hunt at LRB

Let's run the wishbone.

Triple wing works too.

 

[TheCusian]

Look! Another opportunity to dump on Hunt after a big win. I'll take 5 more wins just like this. Low QB rating and all.

 

[orangeinjersey]

What is the probability that either two heads or three heads will be thrown if six fair coins are tossed at once?

 

[nocoffee]

I'm confused as to the games as starter that Hunt should have won, but didn't. Can someone remind me? Thanks.

 

[Millhouse]

i'll take 5 more wins just like this. Low QB rating and all.

so would i. the thing is, that's pretty unlikely

 

[KaiserUEO]

If your new starting pitcher gives up 7 runs, but makes it through 5 because the bats put 10+ up...and he gets the W.

How excited are you to see him start again?

 

[PhatOrange]

in their losses, close but not quite

http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/player/255/1039471/passing/split.html

his last three games 63, 64, and 81. that's pretty bad too!

you'll only have 3 games in a row that bad .08% of the time. Once per 1250 3 game stretches.

This is quite the matchup this week.

The Duke game he won, he must get huge points for the 4 TD passes to 1 int, even though he was only 8-16 for 122 yards.

I hope we get him on Saturday though. GT pulled him at the end of the BYU game and put in a redshirt frosh who could run like Kevin Johnson and his 3 passes I thought looked pretty good. I could see this kid giving us fits on Saturday.

His name is Justin Thomas and Alabama offered him a scholie as an athlete but GT promised him he could play QB.

 

[TheCusian]

If your new starting pitcher gives up 7 runs, but makes it through 5 because the bats put 10+ up...and he gets the W.

How excited are you to see him start again?

Not applicable. In baseball, the pitcher has nothing to do with his own teams O (specifically in the American, National kind of).

He's been the QB on the game that has averaged 300+ yards both games (accounting for 70, then 90). How much is opened up fir the RB's when there is the threat of the QB taking off too?

I'm looking forward to the the QB who is 3-1 taking the field and doing what he can to lead us to a win. The end.

 

[orangehomer]

SU vs NC State had a qb rating of 58.17 Saturday

Last year there were 1,675 records of passing data.

40 of the 1675 records had a passer rating of 58.17 or less. That's 2.4 percent. Let's call that your odds of being that bad. Let's also assume that games are totally independent of each other. That means 0.06% (2.4% squared rounded up) are the odds of having 2 games in a row of 58.17 or less

we just had two games in a row with 58.17 or less.

in other words, if you take 1,667 (1/.06%) 2 game stretches, one of them will have qb ratings of under 58.17 for both games.

This is not your ordinary growing pains.

(I promise this didn't take long - cfbstats raw data)

so in Hunt's first 2 games he had QB ratings of 262 and 211.4, if you really want to blow everyone's minds you should calculate the odds of having 2 games with those ratings followed by 2 games with the horrible ratings

 

[Entropic]

If your new starting pitcher gives up 7 runs, but makes it through 5 because the bats put 10+ up...and he gets the W.

How excited are you to see him start again?

Great analogy. No one here is "dumping" on Hunt because he made a couple bad throws, that can be expected. He has looked horrendous throwing the ball. I think the problem is that we will not win 5 more games with QB play like this regardless of him picking up 3 first downs with his feet. If we play a team that can score, which NC State looked clearly inept at doing, we will not win many more.

 

[texascpa]

We're about 3 inches from completely turning that performance around (my wife tells me this all the time).

I'm not sure if I would like if my wife made that comment to me. My self-esteem is already low as it is.

 

[Chip]

If your new starting pitcher gives up 7 runs, but makes it through 5 because the bats put 10+ up...and he gets the W.

How excited are you to see him start again?

It would be more like a NL situation, where that pitcher got 2 hits and drove in 3 runs.

The other pitcher gave up 6 runs in 5 innings, and went 0-4 and we lost.

So I may not look forward to either, but I'll take the guy who got the win. Less of a net negative.

Is it too late for us to sign a QB from Japan, or perhaps one who just drifted over from Cuba on pile of twigs?

 

[TheCusian]

Great analogy. No one here is "dumping" on Hunt because he made a couple bad throws, that can be expected. He has looked horrendous throwing the ball. I think the problem is that we will not win 5 more games with QB play like this regardless of him picking up 3 first downs with his feet. If we play a team that can score, which NC State looked clearly inept at doing, we will not win many more.

Better analogy is a guy in a prime spot in the batting order who bunts and steals - but sucks at power. But when he's in the order, the team scores more.

And yes Allen strikes out a lot and Broylds been moved to pitching.

 

[KaiserUEO]

I'm all for running Hunt out there till the wins stop.

But I would guess the real hunt is closer to the clempy and state one than the wags and tool one.

3 more wins.

Don't care if Kirkland starts at QB.

 

[Chip]

I'm all for running Hunt out there till the wins stop.

But I would guess the real hunt is closer to the clempy and state one than the wags and tool one.

3 more wins.

Don't care if Kirkland starts at QB.

I know, it's scary. Relying on 350 yards rushing and 70 yards passing worked well for Nebraska and Oklahoma back in the day, but we're long past that era.

I just fear that the real Allen is closer to the Penn State and NW one, not the, well, I don't have any examples the other way.

Run the ball, stop the run. Old school football. While playing games either in the southeast or in a Dome.

 

[KaiserUEO]

I know, it's scary. Relying on 350 yards rushing and 70 yards passing worked well for Nebraska and Oklahoma back in the day, but we're long past that era.

I just fear that the real Allen is closer to the Penn State and NW one, not the, well, I don't have any examples the other way.

Run the ball, stop the run. Old school football. While playing games either in the southeast or in a Dome.

Which brings us to broyd...and think millhouse has that one covered.

 

[Scooch]

If your new starting pitcher gives up 7 runs, but makes it through 5 because the bats put 10+ up...and he gets the W.

How excited are you to see him start again?

Depends on if you're Tim McCarver.