How many wins do we need to stay off of the bubble? | Syracusefan.com

How many wins do we need to stay off of the bubble?

chakka3421

chakka3421

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Assuming we win the next 4 games to get to 15-4, there will be 12 games left on the schedule to play. Of those 12 games left, I think we need to at least split the games 6-6 to make it into the NCAA tournament and not be considered a bubble team. Also 21-10 team from the ACC, 12-6 ACC record with a signature win or two, we should not be on the bubble.

However, if we go 4-8 in the last 12 games and have a 10-8 ACC record, we become a 19-12 team and probably without any signature wins either - NIT bound.. I think to make it into the bubble discussion we need to go 5-7, 11-7 in ACC play and end with a 20-11 record.

However, I only see 4 probable wins in the last 12 games. So they need 1 signature win to make it into the bubble discussion and 2 signature wins to be in the NCAAT for sure. Not sure if it's doable given the schedule - yikes!

Last 12 games:

Miami - L
UNC - L
VT - W
Pitt (away) - L
BC - W
Duke - L
LVille - L
Pitt (home) - W
ND - L
Duke - L
Virginia - L
NCSt - W
 
The absolute number of wins is not what is most important. I agree that SU needs is a couple of 'quality' wins. It will be nailbitter time if we get beat by all the good teams but sweep the bottomfeeders. We could go 11-7 in conference and not get in.
 
TinyManInside said:
The absolute number of wins is not what is most important. I agree that SU needs is a couple of 'quality' wins. It will be nailbitter time if we get beat by all the good teams but sweep the bottomfeeders. We could go 11-7 in conference and not get in.
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I'm in agreement - but I think we are in the discussion and on the so called proverbial bubble if we go 11-7 and 20-11 overall. That's what I was trying to point out that to just make it into the bubble discussion we have to go 11-7 in ACC play.
 
11-7 can be enough if that includes say 2 wins against UNC, ND, VA, Duke, Lville if it includes none of those wins then we better win 2 in the ACCT. 12-6 pretty much guarantees at least 1 win against a good to very good team with basically no bad losses. It also puts us at 21 wins before the ACCT but we'd have a good seed and likely a favorable first game and likely be IN at that point.
 
The one thing this team has going for it that most past Syracuse have not had is their non-conference strength of schedule. I mean, we've all seen how weak the bubble team resumes have been in recent years. I expect it will be the same thing again this year. With that in mind, 10-8 in the ACC coupled with their SOS would be a pretty tough resume to keep out even without a big signature win.
 
chakka3421 said:
Assuming we win the next 4 games to get to 15-4, there will be 12 games left on the schedule to play. Of those 12 games left, I think we need to at least split the games 6-6 to make it into the NCAA tournament and not be considered a bubble team. Also 21-10 team from the ACC, 12-6 ACC record with a signature win or two, we should not be on the bubble.

However, if we go 4-8 in the last 12 games and have a 10-8 ACC record, we become a 19-12 team and probably without any signature wins either - NIT bound.. I think to make it into the bubble discussion we need to go 5-7, 11-7 in ACC play and end with a 20-11 record.

However, I only see 4 probable wins in the last 12 games. So they need 1 signature win to make it into the bubble discussion and 2 signature wins to be in the NCAAT for sure. Not sure if it's doable given the schedule - yikes!

Last 12 games:

Miami - L
UNC - L
VT - W
Pitt (away) - L
BC - W
Duke - L
LVille - L
Pitt (home) - W
ND - L
Duke - L
Virginia - L
NCSt - W
Expand...

There are so many things to not agree with on this.

"assuming we win the next 4"
"miami L" <--- have you watched any of their games outside of Fla?
 
One issue we are going to have is that even if we improve a lot, our schedule is so backloaded that it will be very tough to look like we've improved. Even a #1 seed could not win out our last 10 games.
 
FairfaxOrange said:
We'll beat Miami at the Dome and UVA at the Dome. I think we beat UNC away. And one never knows about the Dome game against Duke.
Expand...

I think we lose to unc but beat UVA and Louisville at dome. Lose both games to duke.
 
22 Including the ACC tourney is our sweet spot... to get to 22 we need to have at least a couple top 50 ACC wins.

21 - 50/50

20 - Not looking good
 
All I know is if we roll into that Duke game with both squads being undefeated in league play it will be more hyped than last years game! That would be great.
 
I think that even if we get to 20 wins, it won't matter unless one of those wins is against one of the following: Duke, UNC, Virginia, Notre Dame, Louisville

Our best win right now is Iowa. That's not going to make us a bubble winner.
 
MikeSU02 said:
We'll finish 15-3 in conference play.

We played all those tough games to get us prepared for this run.

Can't wait.
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If that happens if will Jb's best coaching job ever
 
FairfaxOrange said:
Then I guess I'm out of my mind for thinking we win the next 9...
Expand...

You don't really believe that do you? What do you think the probability of that occurring are? 10%? 20%?

This team is filled with good players. But they have rarely figured out how to play together well. Getting the ball into Christmas is about as close as they come.

They might yet "jell" in part or as a whole. But unless they do, the shank of the ACC season isn't going to be pretty. It goes beyond not shooting well to not working together.

JB said it earlier. We have individual problems and an overall team problem. We much too frequently play like an All Star team unfamiliar with one another.

It's anyone's guess what the record will be this year. But unless there's a major improvement in playing together, 20 wins is the upside limit.
 
2 more
chakka3421 said:
Assuming we win the next 4 games to get to 15-4, there will be 12 games left on the schedule to play. Of those 12 games left, I think we need to at least split the games 6-6 to make it into the NCAA tournament and not be considered a bubble team. Also 21-10 team from the ACC, 12-6 ACC record with a signature win or two, we should not be on the bubble.

However, if we go 4-8 in the last 12 games and have a 10-8 ACC record, we become a 19-12 team and probably without any signature wins either - NIT bound.. I think to make it into the bubble discussion we need to go 5-7, 11-7 in ACC play and end with a 20-11 record.

However, I only see 4 probable wins in the last 12 games. So they need 1 signature win to make it into the bubble discussion and 2 signature wins to be in the NCAAT for sure. Not sure if it's doable given the schedule - yikes!

Last 12 games:

Miami - L
UNC - L
VT - W
Pitt (away) - L
BC - W
Duke - L
LVille - L
Pitt (home) - W
ND - L
Duke - L
Virginia - L
NCSt - W
Expand...
2 more than we will have
 
We are going to pull of what Virginia did last year -- run the next 19 games at 18-1.. win the ACC regular season and conference title and get the final #1 seed.
 
Seriously though, just need to look to NC St last year.

They were 21-13 entering NCAA tournament. 9-9 conference record, ACC-tourney wins over Miami and us. Besides that ACC tourney win, their only other notable win of the year was early on over another middling team, Tennessee. Also throw in a few craptastic losses against NC Central, Clemson and Wake Forest.

FWIW
 
Townie72 said:
You don't really believe that do you? What do you think the probability of that occurring are? 10%? 20%?

This team is filled with good players. But they have rarely figured out how to play together well. Getting the ball into Christmas is about as close as they come.

They might yet "jell" in part or as a whole. But unless they do, the shank of the ACC season isn't going to be pretty. It goes beyond not shooting well to not working together.

JB said it earlier. We have individual problems and an overall team problem. We much too frequently play like an All Star team unfamiliar with one another.

It's anyone's guess what the record will be this year. But unless there's a major improvement in playing together, 20 wins is the upside limit.
Expand...

I'm betting on them coming together. It's closer than you think. Out of those 9 games, only UNC should give us trouble.

But we will see. 9 games, one at a time!
 
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