I can't see 9-9 getting it done

[sabach]

If we beat UNC at UNC (with a win already at Duke) we could get shut out in our last two games and get in.

Don't give our offense any ideas.

 

[Marsh01]

You think we're a 100% lock if we lose to nc st, beat unc, lose fsu, lose 1st acc tourny game? Only a 9-9 conference record (technically 9-10) and finishing the season 1-5, basically wiping out any chance the committee has of taking into consideration the 4-5 record with hopkins.

I think its more important to beat both nc st and fsu than just beat unc. 10-8 in acc and we're getting in.

absolutely. Not even a discussion

 

[Brooky03]

not sure about B. if we lose to nc state, beat unc, lose to fsu and loss the 1st acc tourny game i dont think we're a lock by any means. if we finish 9-9 (regardless of how we get there) we need an acc tourny win to feel safe, maybe 2.

Compared to the flaming dumpster fires we're competing against for a spot, I'll make a board life bet that a UNC win alone will get us in the NCAAT. That's how sure I am.

 

[SoBeCuse]

I think there are lots of good teams in our resume range. Should be a good tourney and definitely lots of balance. I don't think there will be any 'bad' per se teams in the field.

That being said we need a win or two in the ACC Tourney if we end up .500 in conference. Conference record is not valued as much as people think here especially with unbalanced schedules. Committee members have documented this. Notre Dame will be given a break for games sans Jackson which means our W against them shouldn't be valued as much. Fair and makes sense obviously. We didn't get much done in conference regarding quality wins. Precisely why the debacle on Sat really stings. We have the Duke win which is solid.

Curious what people think about Ohio State. Right now (10-5) they have three games left. MSU twice and Iowa. Let's say they go 1-2. 11-7 in B10. By everyone's conference record logic they should get in but will they? Their conference performance w0uld be similar to ours if they end up 11-7...basically two good wins (one vs Michigan sans LeVert) and a win vs either MSU or Iowa potentially but a bunch of average conference wins. I don't know. I think these are all three difficult games for us coming up. Some work will be need to be done in ACC Tourney to bee safe, regardless.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Compared to the flaming dumpster fires we're competing against for a spot, I'll make a board life bet that a UNC win alone will get us in the NCAAT. That's how sure I am.

I'm in this boat as well. We don't have many good conference wins under our belt, period.

 

[Dave85]

We were 0-4 in the ACC some of you didn't think we would win 17 games. Guess what, you guys were wrong!!!

WRONG!

How about some confidence we beat NC State and Florida St. at the end. I've never seen a fan base predict us losing games as much as we do.

Keep the faith! There's a lot of Orange in that rainbow!

 

[sabach]

I'm in this boat as well. We don't have many good conference wins under our belt, period.

Didn't you just say that we need to win a game or two in the ACCT if we finish 9-9 in the conference?

 

[jncuse]

Here are some projected resumes with the help of RPI forecast if we 9-9 (with win over NC St)

These are the resumes against the last 3 teams out. The quality wins put us over the top in each scenario. So we would need to be "caught " tourney week -- avoid a bad loss is one of those ways.

I am not going to say it is not tight.. it is a little bit.

 

[Dave85]

You think we're a 100% lock if we lose to nc st, beat unc, lose fsu, lose 1st acc tourny game? Only a 9-9 conference record (technically 9-10) and finishing the season 1-5, basically wiping out any chance the committee has of taking into consideration the 4-5 record with hopkins.

I think its more important to beat both nc st and fsu than just beat unc. 10-8 in acc and we're getting in.

We're a 100% lock if we lose to nc st, beat unc, lose fsu, lose 1st acc tourny game, Coleman hits all his free throws, Cooney makes 3 threes in row, G finally gets his top the key slamma jam, Malachi's hair is 1" taller, Lydon (I got nothing), Roberson shows up, JB stops picking his nose. That's not too hard!

 

[SoBeCuse]

Didn't you just say that we need to win a game or two in the ACCT if we finish 9-9 in the conference?

Yes. Safer if one of those 9 wins is UNC.

 

[jncuse]

And if we get to 10 wins, no questions we are well ahead

 

[SBU72]

When 3 of 9 being Boston College and Wake Forest

Reverse that. They have not (so far) lose to anybody below them in the standing. Beating NC St would continue that. They have beat Duke and ND. Good wins even if those teams were under-manned when they beat them.

 

[jncuse]

This is an interesting one. Two teams that are currently in -- Syracuse and Oregon St. Oregon St has more top 50 wins, but they are just home games against other Pac-12 teams. That is a nice advantage for us.

No bad losses is good for Oregon St.

I really think it will come down to if the committee truly believes the RPI for all those P12 teams in this case.

 

[sabach]

At 9-9 it is possible that we will have to win the first ACCT game not because we need the win but because we need to avoid the bad loss.

 

[jncuse]

Another projected resume vs a team that is considered in right now. I give the advantage to us mainly because of the Duke win, and that extra bad loss they had this weekend vs Miss St.

 

[jncuse]

At 9-9 it is possible that we will have to win the first ACCT game not because we need the win but because we need to avoid the bad loss.

Yes - that is my view. A win against a crappy team does not separate you. A loss vs a bad team brings you back. So you are winning not for the reward, but to avoid the penalty.

 

[MickGoCuse5]

Another projected resume vs a team that is considered in right now. I give the advantage to us mainly because of the Duke win, and that extra bad loss they had this weekend vs Miss St.

View attachment 55969

I know it's technical, but as an FYI, you forgot to change the heading on your spreadsheet to reflect a 9-9 conference record. It would a win vs. NC St. OR @FSU, not AND.

Seeing the RPI #, i'm guessing it's beat NC St. and lose @ FSU.

All good stuff though. Thanks for showing these comparisons.

 

[jncuse]

I know it's technical, but as an FYI, you forgot to change the heading on your spreadsheet to reflect a 9-9 conference record. It would a win vs. NC St. OR @FSU, not AND.

Seeing the RPI #, i'm guessing it's beat NC St. and lose @ FSU.

All good stuff though. Thanks for showing these comparisons.

Thanks for catching that -- I forgot to change it back and it is a very important detail because it implies we got to 10-8.

 

[jncuse]

Arkansas-Little Rock is also a possibility. 22-3 with a 43 RPI. Weak conference but wins @Tulsa and @San Diego State

I would agree with that.

 

[pearl31]

Another projected resume vs a team that is considered in right now. I give the advantage to us mainly because of the Duke win, and that extra bad loss they had this weekend vs Miss St.

View attachment 55970

that was a crushing loss for Alabama at home vs Miss St

 

[OrlandoCuse]

Despite having BC on our schedule twice, our ACC schedule is difficult. We will end up playing the top 5 ACC teams on the road while having only 1 home game against the same group.

 

[PoppyHart]

I think there are lots of good teams in our resume range. Should be a good tourney and definitely lots of balance. I don't think there will be any 'bad' per se teams in the field.

That being said we need a win or two in the ACC Tourney if we end up .500 in conference. Conference record is not valued as much as people think here especially with unbalanced schedules. Committee members have documented this. Notre Dame will be given a break for games sans Jackson which means our W against them shouldn't be valued as much. Fair and makes sense obviously. We didn't get much done in conference regarding quality wins. Precisely why the debacle on Sat really stings. We have the Duke win which is solid.

Curious what people think about Ohio State. Right now (10-5) they have three games left. MSU twice and Iowa. Let's say they go 1-2. 11-7 in B10. By everyone's conference record logic they should get in but will they? Their conference performance w0uld be similar to ours if they end up 11-7...basically two good wins (one vs Michigan sans LeVert) and a win vs either MSU or Iowa potentially but a bunch of average conference wins. I don't know. I think these are all three difficult games for us coming up. Some work will be need to be done in ACC Tourney to bee safe, regardless.

I'm shocked that OSU is not on people's radar. 2-1 in final 3 and they are automatic. 1-2 and they are very much in play.

 

[jdubs30]

Our top 100 games is a bigger number than almost all the other teams. We will end up with 19 top 100 games. One thing we have this year that we haven't had in other "bubble' years -- good OOC wins. UConn, A&M and the Bonnies will hopefully all end up in the top 50 RPI.

We have neutral/road wins vs. Texas A&M, Duke, and UConn.

 

[SoBeCuse]

I'm shocked that OSU is not on people's radar. 2-1 in final 3 and they are automatic. 1-2 and they are very much in play.

Seriously. Nobody is talking about them. They are really streaky but athletically they can play with anybody. The last three games are just as big as ours. They might be without Jae'Sean Tate for a few games though as he is dealing with a shoulder injury. That would be a big blow.

 

[pearl31]

I'm shocked that OSU is not on people's radar. 2-1 in final 3 and they are automatic. 1-2 and they are very much in play.

highly unlikely. they have 1.5 good wins - neutral Kentucky and home Michigan. they're very much like an Ol' Miss or Creighton - a high major team that has managed to compile an impressive-looking amount of wins on the surface but with nothing of substance when taking a closer look