I did not expect Girard to be our most effective freshman

[OttoMets]

It's weird that the one and done hype came from media people like Goodman. I guess he dominated some camps over the summer. I wonder what the competition was there.

Sometimes I can see where that hyperbole comes from. The college game is fast and physical and not every skill translates, at least not right away. An Oshae comes in and rushes around the hoops and misses everything. Jalen Carey can't run past or jump over everyone.

But Quincy's fundamental skills look so weak regardless of competition. He can't jump, he plays below the rim. He's not terribly quick (in the Wes Johnson sense) or fast (in the Keita/Roberson sense). His handle, to my perception, is worse than Edwards right now. He doesn't appear to have excellent vision or be a great shooter (not that I'd expect either), and he doesn't really have the nose for rebounding that guys like Roberson and Anthony did.

Now I'm not as tuned in to scouting as some here, but I would think that even a broad-shouldered kid of average height and athleticism would be expected to be superlative in a couple of those areas for Goodman to talk about him as an early entrant. It's very weird. But I wish SU fans would cut the kid some slack.

 

[Alsacs]

Sometimes I can see where that hyperbole comes from. The college game is fast and physical and not every skill translates, at least not right away. An Oshae comes in and rushes around the hoops and misses everything. Jalen Carey can't run past or jump over everyone.

But Quincy's fundamental skills look so weak regardless of competition. He can't jump, he plays below the rim. He's not terribly quick (in the Wes Johnson sense) or fast (in the Keita/Roberson sense). His handle, to my perception, is worse than Edwards right now. He doesn't appear to have excellent vision or be a great shooter (not that I'd expect either), and he doesn't really have the nose for rebounding that guys like Roberson and Anthony did.

Now I'm not as tuned in to scouting as some here, but I would think that even a broad-shouldered kid of average height and athleticism would be expected to be superlative in a couple of those areas for Goodman to talk about him as an early entrant. It's very weird. But I wish SU fans would cut the kid some slack.

He was talked about a possible OAD IMO because of potential usage rate being high and him piling up stats.
The one disadvantage IMO our short rotations is that it inflates the stats of our best players recently because they play a lot and thus get more opportunities.
It's part of the short rotation problems. When JB expected Tyler Ennis to come back for his Sophomore year why should he have expected that? Ennis played enough as a Freshman where his stats weren't going to improve that much because of his usage rate as a Freshman. It's not like MCW who barely played as a Freshman. He had to play to move up.

Guerrier was seen as an athlete who could pop because we needed him. The kid clearly isn't ready but the downside to our short rotations is that players who pop aren't going to stay.

 

[malpearl31]

People hate the plus/minus stats when it doesn’t reinforce their opinion. People though buddy had the worst plus/minus on Saturday and were wrong. Go rewatch the tape. Marek got his third foul, Guerrier came in, and we fell apart. He was a black hole on about 3 straight offensive possession.

I agree with you - Guerrier was horrific against Georgetown. And even beyond the plus/minus for Guerrier from Saturday (which was terrible) if you take a look at his numbers overall, you can see why JB is having a hard time giving him minutes. He hasn't done a great job with the minutes he's gotten so far (all stats below courtesy of KenPom):

- His overall Offensive Rating is 79.1 - for those of you who aren't familiar with this metric, that's not good. And against the six Power 5 opponents we've faced, it's way less - a 58.6 ORtg (which is abysmal).
- He's shooting a ghastly 7-for-25 (28%) from the floor against the six Power 5 opponents we've faced, including just 1-for-10 from 3-pt range.
- He has turned the ball over 11 times against those six Power 5 opponents, and made only 7 baskets.

If you're JB - and you're trying to win - are you really going to force-feed minutes to guys like Guerrier and Goodine based on what they've shown in the minutes they've gotten so far?

 

[Alsacs]

I agree with you - Guerrier was horrific against Georgetown. And even beyond the plus/minus for Guerrier from Saturday (which was terrible) if you take a look at his numbers overall, you can see why JB is having a hard time giving him minutes. He hasn't done a great job with the minutes he's gotten so far (all stats below courtesy of KenPom):

- His overall Offensive Rating is 79.1 - for those of you who aren't familiar with this metric, that's not good. And against the six Power 5 opponents we've faced, it's way less - a 58.6 ORtg (which is abysmal).
- He's shooting a ghastly 7-for-25 (28%) from the floor against the six Power 5 opponents we've faced, including just 1-for-10 from 3-pt range.
- He has turned the ball over 11 times against those six Power 5 opponents, and made only 7 baskets.

If you're JB - and you're trying to win - are you really going to force-feed minutes to guys like Guerrier and Goodine based on what they've shown in the minutes they've gotten so far?

This assumes that players don't get better by learning from their mistakes and that players currently playing are significantly better.
Practice doesn't mean players aren't better in games.
Players don't get better when the rotations are short. If you have the horses then you play the horses a lot of minutes. We don't have those type of players except maybe Hughes and I don't think Hughes is a top dog ideally.
I think Buddy and Girard should start and play good amount of minutes. I don't think they are good enough or efficient enough to play as much as they do thus wanting the players we have getting some more is good for player development.
Please post if you don't mind what every player's Offensive rating is. I bet only Hughes would have a really good overall one for the season.

 

[OrangeDW]

if Goodine was given the hundreds of miles of rope girard has been afforded , it would be very different right now

Based on what? Girard had 24 points and 5 3’s in his first start. He did the same thing in an exhibition game. He came in against Colgate and the game turned around.

He showed something early on that earned him more minutes.

Goodine looked athletic on a reverse layup once. And has a promising looking stroke but the shots so far don’t go in. He hasn’t done anything to earn more. Though I would like him to at least get some run rather than DNP’s.

 

[Bayside44]

You think? I dunno.

I remember a lot of clamoring for Nicholses and Shumperts and Southerlands and Cooneys early in their tenures. (Ironic in the case of the latter, given the popular opinion on his minutes as an upperclassman.)

Cooney played a ton years 2 and 3. For whatever reason DNic and JB just didn't mesh. Southerland was so sink or swim, 27 minutes and 5 points against Michigan.

I think we get back to Scooch 's point of what role player is logging too many minutes this year, which seems to be all of them...

 

[malpearl31]

This assumes that players don't get better by learning from their mistakes and that players currently playing are significantly better.
Practice doesn't mean players aren't better in games.
Players don't get better when the rotations are short. If you have the horses then you play the horses a lot of minutes. We don't have those type of players except maybe Hughes and I don't think Hughes is a top dog ideally.
I think Buddy and Girard should start and play good amount of minutes. I don't think they are good enough or efficient enough to play as much as they do thus wanting the players we have getting some more is good for player development.
Please post if you don't mind what every player's Offensive rating is. I bet only Hughes would have a really good overall one for the season.

Here you go...
SU Player stats through 10 games - ORtg / Usage Rate / % Mins Played (stats courtesy of KenPom):

Hughes - 117.8 ORtg / 24.5% Usage / 91.8% Mins
Buddy - 105.5 ORtg / 22.4% Usage / 81.2% Mins
JG3 - 105.0 ORtg / 21.4% Usage / 70.8% Mins
Quincy - 79.1 ORtg / 23.8% Usage / 43.2% Mins
Washington - 105.2 Ortg / 21.2% Usage - 14% Mins
Goodine - 58.5 ORtg / 18.7% Usage / 25.5% Mins
Dolezaj - 119.6 ORtg / 15.7% Usage / 79.5% Mins
Bourama - 108.2 ORtg / 12.9% Usage / 59.5% Mins
Edwards - 135.1 ORtg / 11.3% Usage / 16.5% Mins
Braswell - 47.1 ORtg / 11.6% Usage / 8.2% Mins (only 5 games played)
Jalen Carey - 39.2 ORtg / 28.7% Usage / 5.8% Mins (only 2 games played)

 

[Alsacs]

Here you go...
SU Player stats through 10 games - ORtg / Usage Rate / % Mins Played (stats courtesy of KenPom):

Hughes - 117.8 ORtg / 24.5% Usage / 91.8% Mins
Buddy - 105.5 ORtg / 22.4% Usage / 81.2% Mins
JG3 - 105.0 ORtg / 21.4% Usage / 70.8% Mins
Quincy - 79.1 ORtg / 23.8% Usage / 43.2% Mins
Washington - 105.2 Ortg / 21.2% Usage - 14% Mins
Goodine - 58.5 ORtg / 18.7% Usage / 25.5% Mins
Dolezaj - 119.6 ORtg / 15.7% Usage / 79.5% Mins
Bourama - 108.2 ORtg / 12.9% Usage / 59.5% Mins
Edwards - 135.1 ORtg / 11.3% Usage / 16.5% Mins
Braswell - 47.1 ORtg / 11.6% Usage / 8.2% Mins (only 5 games played)
Jalen Carey - 39.2 ORtg / 28.7% Usage / 5.8% Mins (only 2 games played)

So I split Buddy and Girard minutes and give them to Washington.
All 3 should play 20 mpg and let the hot hands play each game.

 

[Alsacs]

So I split Buddy and Girard minutes and give them to Washington.
All 3 should play 20 mpg and let the hot hands play each game.

Aka what Dion Waiters, Scoop, Triche did.
None of them played high 30 MPG together.

 

[malpearl31]

So I split Buddy and Girard minutes and give them to Washington.
All 3 should play 20 mpg and let the hot hands play each game.

You think that moves the needle and significantly impacts the team going forward? Any concerns about giving fewer minutes to our 2nd (Buddy) and 3rd (JG3) best 3-point shooters and more minutes to a career 20% 3FG shooter (HoWash)?

Sometimes we act like this is all super easy, that there's a winning combination that the ol' coach is just too stubborn to see/implement. Maybe your suggestion would improve the team's play, I don't know...

But I do know there's a guy sitting on the sidelines that knows more than me, that has an amazingly impressive track record of success, and who sees these guys in practice every single day. I also know that he burns with desire to win - so I trust that the decisions he makes with the rotations and minutes played are probably the right ones... but that's just me.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

You think that moves the needle and significantly impacts the team going forward? Any concerns about giving fewer minutes to our 2nd (Buddy) and 3rd (JG3) best 3-point shooters and more minutes to a career 20% 3FG shooter (HoWash)?

Sometimes we act like this is all super easy, that there's a winning combination that the ol' coach is just too stubborn to see/implement. Maybe your suggestion would improve the team's play, I don't know...

But I do know there's a guy sitting on the sidelines that knows more than me, that has an amazingly impressive track record of success, and who sees these guys in practice every single day. I also know that he burns with desire to win - so I trust that the decisions he makes with the rotations and minutes played are probably the right ones... but that's just me.

Yes. Washington makes our defense better immediately. And he doesn't jack up ill-advised NBA ranged 3s. I'll take for 20 minutes a game, please.

 

[malpearl31]

Aka what Dion Waiters, Scoop, Triche did.
None of them played high 30 MPG together.

You're right, one of the best backcourt combinations we've ever put on the floor.
2012 Stats:
Scoop (Sr.): 63% Mins played / 106.3 ORtg / 22.9% Poss Used
Dion (So.): 60% Mins played / 115.6 ORtg / 25.5% Poss Used
Triche (Jr.): 56.2% Mins played / 110.9 ORtg / 23.1% Poss Used

I don't think we would see similar results from Buddy/JG3/HoWash by simply replicating the distribution of minutes that worked in 2012. I like how JB has started to insert HoWash a little bit more recently - but I'm a little skeptical of his ability to continue to put up good numbers with a huge increase in minutes/usage. Hope he proves me wrong if he does get that chance!

 

[malpearl31]

Players don't get better when the rotations are short.

One more thing - I strongly disagree with your comment earlier that players don't improve when the rotations are short. If you really think about it for a few minutes, you'll come up with a long list of SU players that didn't play much their freshman year (in some cases, sophomore and junior year, too) but who improved significantly nonetheless.

 

[Alsacs]

You think that moves the needle and significantly impacts the team going forward? Any concerns about giving fewer minutes to our 2nd (Buddy) and 3rd (JG3) best 3-point shooters and more minutes to a career 20% 3FG shooter (HoWash)?

Sometimes we act like this is all super easy, that there's a winning combination that the ol' coach is just too stubborn to see/implement. Maybe your suggestion would improve the team's play, I don't know...

But I do know there's a guy sitting on the sidelines that knows more than me, that has an amazingly impressive track record of success, and who sees these guys in practice every single day. I also know that he burns with desire to win - so I trust that the decisions he makes with the rotations and minutes played are probably
the right ones... but that's just me.

Washington is our best handler of the 3.
Can penetrate and pass.
Plus is a better defender right now.
I also think Buddy would be better if fresher and not worn down. JB can say players don’t get tired but they don’t play with the same energy level when they play as much.

 

[Alsacs]

One more thing - I strongly disagree with your comment earlier that players don't improve when the rotations are short. If you really think about it for a few minutes, you'll come up with a long list of SU players that didn't play much their freshman year (in some cases, sophomore and junior year, too) but who improved significantly nonetheless.

Those players were blocked by completely superior talent upperclassmen.
Freshman MCW isn’t playing 10mpg if he were here.
Same for Freshman Kris Joseph or Fab Melo.

We don’t have starters right now we are miles better than that the bench.
If our starters are 5.5 out of 10 the bench players aren’t a lot apart whereas in the past we had 7-8 out of 10 guy’s ahead of them.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

Washington is our best handler of the 3.
Can penetrate and pass.
Plus is a better defender right now.
I also think Buddy would be better if fresher and not worn down. JB can say players don’t get tired but they don’t play with the same energy level when they play as much.

Especially shooters.

 

[patcuse]

Especially shooters.

0 points first half 25 points second half.

 

[Scooch]

Cooney played a ton years 2 and 3. For whatever reason DNic and JB just didn't mesh. Southerland was so sink or swim, 27 minutes and 5 points against Michigan.

I think we get back to Scooch 's point of what role player is logging too many minutes this year, which seems to be all of them...

Yeah. I just can't get all that wrapped up in these debates about who's receiving too much/not enough time. If this were a few years ago, not one of our three freshmen are guys who we'd expect to have any major impact. Nor would we necessarily need them to.

We complicate things sometimes. We've missed spectacularly in our big man and point guard recruiting for several years running. Chickens have come home to roost.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

0 points first half 25 points second half.

Yup. Sat for a good five minutes in the first half. Probably helped out later.

We might have won if he had gotten some additional rest. Just kidding.

 

[malpearl31]

Those players were blocked by completely superior talent upperclassmen.
Freshman MCW isn’t playing 10mpg if he were here.
Same for Freshman Kris Joseph or Fab Melo.

Went back and looked at the roster in 2010-11, Fab's freshman year. The list of talented upperclassmen bigs on that roster is pretty short (just one guy): Rick Jackson. Fab didn't play much that year because, quite frankly, he sucked. Not because he was behind multiple talented juniors and seniors at the 4/5 position.

And then a much-improved Fab came back in Year 2 and was really, really good.

Your statement that "players don't get better when the rotations are short" simply isn't true. Players can get better (and very often do) even if they're not part of the rotation. That was my point.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Based on those O-ratings, I'd like to see more plays for Marek and Hughes and a little less shooting from Buddy and JG3.

 

[Ghost]

Yes. All these people are saying Guerrier needs to do this, Guerrier needs to do that. I've asked once or twice but can't get a straight answer - what the hell is Guerrier supposed to do?

Not at all a knock on him, but he just doesn't look like a basketball player. Not for a moment, not even when he had that strong second half with 15 or 17 points a few weeks ago, have I thought that this is someone who should be expected to produce as a freshman. Roberts is maybe a good comp, though Roberts could make a post move and get to (and above!) the rim as a freshman and, despite having hands of stone, generally seemed like he'd learned how to play basketball before coming to college.

Quincy seems like a victim of unreasonable expectations. I don't know why anyone thought he'd be a one-and-done. Did they look at his silhouette, compare it to Zion Williamson, and think he's the right shape to be good at basketball so he must be?

He plays hard and I hear he's a very nice guy. But nothing in his game suggests he's going to be any more effective this year than Matt Moyer was a couple seasons back.

Moyer? MOYER?????

Okay, I'm not all-in on Guerrier, but go back and watch their HS highlights and tell me one of those guys doesn't look a bit more skilled, or at least more coordinated than the other. I can accept everything you wrote prior to that. Moyer?????

Why did we recruit him? GPA?

 

[OttoMets]

Moyer? MOYER?????

Okay, I'm not all-in on Guerrier, but go back and watch their HS highlights and tell me one of those guys doesn't look a bit more skilled, or at least more coordinated than the other. I can accept everything you wrote prior to that. Moyer?????

Why did we recruit him? GPA?

Does Guerrier do anything that Moyer didn't?

Anyway, the comp was less about style and more about production; Matt was the best example I could remember of a tweener forward who got serious minutes despite a lack of any appreciable offensive basketball skills.

Without looking, I'm guessing he averaged about 5 and 5 in his year here. Based on what I've seen of Guerrier's skills, that'd be about the production I'd expect from him as well.

 

[MSOrange]

Does Guerrier do anything that Moyer didn't?

Anyway, the comp was less about style and more about production; Matt was the best example I could remember of a tweener forward who got serious minutes despite a lack of any appreciable offensive basketball skills.

Without looking, I'm guessing he averaged about 5 and 5 in his year here. Based on what I've seen of Guerrier's skills, that'd be about the production I'd expect from him as well.

I think Quincy showed more against Penn State, Cornell and Seattle than Matt ever showed except for that UConn game in MSG. I'm not going to deny he has stunk the past 2 games in particular. If he'd quit launching 3 pointers, I think he'd have a longer leash with JB and be able to get more comfortable and be more productive.

 

[two3zone]

Moyer? MOYER?????

Okay, I'm not all-in on Guerrier, but go back and watch their HS highlights and tell me one of those guys doesn't look a bit more skilled, or at least more coordinated than the other. I can accept everything you wrote prior to that. Moyer?????

Why did we recruit him? GPA?

People were saying that Moyer was a 1 or 2 and done player who only redshirting because of injury.