I dont think Shafer has done a very good job at

[AAM62]

The injuries buy him a mulligan.

No excuses next year.

LSU will be an excuse

 

[KaiserUEO]

all this year but given the injuries, can you really expect anything more than 4-6 wins. 6 being a miracle in my opinion. 4-5 being reasonable and obviously 3 being really not very good. NC ST game really the one that got away.

Like I said, I am not apologizing for any of it just looking at the injuries, what a disaster

we could have had a lot more fun with this thread, Barrel, if your message body just said...

"and go..."

although, it appears that we are basically there.

 

[690West]

Call me crazy..but I think we win this week.

28% chance to win. Not crazy

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I can't defend his decision to let McDonald install what we saw in those first bunch of games. But he did attempt to rectify it."

Weird comment. We moved the ball well early in the season. What McDonald installed wasn't a problem.

 

[TheCusian]

putrid offenses score more than great defenses. if you have a sh!tty offense that can't get 10 yards in 3 plays and a defense that's good at stopping other teams, give your offense a 4th play and if that fails, no big deal, your defense can get the ball back

It's not about scoring on a defensive play it's about the chance to pin them deep - where you have a higher percentage of TO's, sacks, etc. with your great defense. Get the ball closer for your putrid offense.

In your scenario, the offense fails to get a 4th down conversion, the defense holds - they punt and pin our putrid offense back 30-40 more yards.

 

[Millhouse]

there aren't that many turnovers. even with a great defense, you're more likely to give up a couple first downs than force a turnover.

 

[TheCusian]

there aren't that many turnovers. even with a great defense, you're more likely to give up a couple first downs than force a turnover.

Field position + chance of TO/muffed punt.

With a great defense and putrid offense - you're forced to play a field position game. It's one of the reasons you've been arguing that a high powered offense is of more value than a highly rated defense. Field position games suck - but not sure what you can do with bad O and horrible injury situation.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

It's not about scoring on a defensive play it's about the chance to pin them deep - where you have a higher percentage of TO's, sacks, etc. with your great defense. Get the ball closer for your putrid offense.

I feel this thinking is so, so flawed. So many things have to go right. There's no margin for error. You have to 1) already have semi-decent field position in order to "pin them deep," then 2) actually have the punt go the way you need, then 3) have the defense get the big play that causes a turnover or loss of yardage, but if not that 4) have the defense hold the opponent's offense to very little yardage so that 5) their punt isn't very good, or if it is good 6) you're able to make a good return so that you can 7) enjoy field position with a new set of downs that probably isn't all that far from where your field position was when you punted.

You know, or you can try to keep the field position you have and 1) try to run a play that gets you 5 yards and if not 2) have the defense get the big play that causes a turnover or loss of yardage, but if not that 3) have the defense hold the opponent's offense to very little yardage so that 4) their punt isn't very good, or if it is good 5) you're able to make a good return so that you can 6) enjoy a new set of downs.

 

[GoSU96]

Yep.

But Nova should have been a loss.

Every year we have a few games that could go either way. 2012 would've looked different if not for the last second win at USF.

3-9 sucks no matter the circumstances.

Nova shouldn't have been that close.

 

[Millhouse]

Field position + chance of TO/muffed punt.

With a great defense and putrid offense - you're forced to play a field position game. It's one of the reasons you've been arguing that a high powered offense is of more value than a highly rated defense. Field position games suck - but not sure what you can do with bad O and horrible injury situation.

this silliness just ignores probabilities entirely.

how many muffed punts have we recovered this year out of 62 punts

 

[GoSU96]

putrid offenses score more than great defenses.

if you have a sh!tty offense that can't get 10 yards in 3 plays and a defense that's good at stopping other teams, give your offense a 4th play and if that fails, no big deal, your defense can get the ball back

You have to take field position into all of those calculations. You are much more likely to give up points if the opponent gets the ball on their 40 than it is if they get it on the 15. And you have a chance to give the offense a chance at a short field.

It's not nearly as simple as you make it.

They managed it perfectly against NCSt and screwed it up with that stupid dbl reverse pass and then the TO in the redzone.

 

[upperdeck]

Yep.

But Nova should have been a loss.

Every year we have a few games that could go either way. 2012 would've looked different if not for the last second win at USF.

3-9 sucks no matter the circumstances.

nova should have been a loss based on the last 5-7 min of the game. but never during the game did nova really do anything else. we had the game under control most of the time we just stopped scoring once we did.

 

[orangepassion]

One of the biggest problems early in the year was getting penalties on virtually every drive.

 

[TheCusian]

You have to take field position into all of those calculations. You are much more likely to give up points if the opponent gets the ball on their 40 than it is if they get it on the 15. And you have a chance to give the offense a chance at a short field. It's not nearly as simple as you make it.

Thank you.

I think if you have an average offense, go for it. If you're inept on O and good on D, you play field position.

 

[Millhouse]

You have to take field position into all of those calculations. You are much more likely to give up points if the opponent gets the ball on their 40 than it is if they get it on the 15. And you have a chance to give the offense a chance at a short field.

It's not nearly as simple as you make it.

field position is good for your offense too. going for it in the short field gives your offense a chance at the short field

only thinking about field position when the other team has the ball is too simple.

sh1tty offenses are better at picking up a few yards than good defenses are at forcing 3 and outs or turnovers

 

[Scooch]

I just think it's funny that people proudly pound the "we're too conservative - punting too much" card when we have a top 30 defense who is as adept at forcing TO's than our 100+ rated offense is at scoring points.

Arrrrghhhh.

Having a good defense is precisely WHEN you should be more aggressive on O.

Trust the D to hold the line if the O fails... From the other team's freakin' 37.

 

[TheCusian]

this silliness just ignores probabilities entirely. how many muffed punts have we recovered this year out of 62 punts

Field position matters more when you suck on O.

 

[Millhouse]

Thank you.

I think if you have an average offense, go for it. If you're inept on O and good on D, you play field position.

keeping the ball when in good field position is not playing field position, ok

 

[Millhouse]

Field position matters more when you suck on O.

which is why you don't give the other team the ball when you have good field position

 

[Scooch]

Field position matters more when you suck on O.

Yes, which is why you don't willingly give up the ball when you have it inside the other team's 40 with a 4th and relatively short.

:bat:

 

[TheCusian]

Yes, which is why you don't willingly give up the ball when you have it inside the other team's 40 with a 4th and relatively short. :bat:

I think we've done that once and I hated that call.

 

[TheCusian]

which is why you don't give the other team the ball when you have good field position

What's good field position with an offense in the 100's?

 

[OttoinGrotto]

With a great defense and putrid offense - you're forced to play a field position game.

Or, you try to maximize the chances your offense has when they have them, because you figure you can trust your defense to make a stop without needing 80ish yards of field to play with.

 

[Millhouse]

What's good field position with an offense in the 100's?

uh closer to the other teams end zone

baseball teams with good pitching and crappy hitting still take their at bats.

our defense is good, lets play more defense derrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

 

[GoSU96]

field position is good for your offense too. going for it in the short field gives your offense a chance at the short field

only thinking about field position when the other team has the ball is too simple.

sh1tty offenses are better at picking up a few yards than good defenses are at forcing 3 and outs or turnovers

I'm not, that's the point. Time and score feature in that as well. And there is a big difference, in particular for this team, between 4th and 4 at the 45 vs 4th and 1 at the 35. It seems you think there is not a difference.