I hate our schedule

[RedtheGOB]

We aren't UNC. Different rules.

That we agree on. We’ll need more wins for sure.

 

[Knicks411]

It’s due to NET.
Under the RPI playing too many sub 280 teams was playing with fire. The sweet spot for gaming the RPI was trying to schedule teams you knew you could beat but were not terrible — somewhere in the 100-150 area. View it as the Q3 home game.

Now you want to avoid those teams in the 100-180 area and beat up on su 280 teams under the NET. That’s why such a low % of OOC games for power conference teams are in Q3.

That being said it’s still relative margin. If you aren’t winning those games by an average of at least 20 points or more you are not helping yourself. And if you win them by amounts like we did last year you hurt yourself badly.

It’s why I push for a ranking system that is 50% old RPI and 50% NET. The weaknesses of each offset each other and encourage more balanced scheduling.

50% RPI is still about 50% too much weighting to the RPI for my liking.

I like the wins above bubble stuff, I think that may be the best way to frame it. Two teams can have the roughly the same ranked schedule, but get their in vastly different ways (something barbelled like we have, with a few games against great teams and some against awful) or a bunch of games against pretty good teams.

 

[dollarbill44]

Schedule seems to be designed to help that stupid, but obviously very important metric in the NET. Win the very easy games by 20+, stay close against the Houston, Tennessee, and Kansas (hopefully pull at least one of these off). And we are in good shape in January. Not sure if the other ACC schools followed the program as well, but if they did and have somewhat similar results and perhaps wins against the P4, we will have plenty of Q1 and Q2 opportunities in conference play. Welcome to College Basketball in 2025!

The problem is that over the last handful of years, we haven't won the "easy" games by large margins. It doesn't do much for the resume if we lose the hard games and squeak by in the easy ones.

 

[sufan59]

The problem is that over the last handful of years, we haven't won the "easy" games by large margins. It doesn't do much for the resume if we lose the hard games and squeak by in the easy ones.

Yes, but that is why I think we went with the non con opponents that we did vs Colgate/Cornell. Because those games on paper should be easier for us to run up the score. But design and how it actually happens are two different things.

 

[dollarbill44]

Yes, but that is why I think we went with the non con opponents that we did vs Colgate/Cornell. Because those games on paper should be easier for us to run up the score. But design and how it actually happens are two different things.

Colgate and Cornell are all well and good, but taking LeMoyne to the final seconds and Youngstown St to OT are what I'm talking about. We used to abuse all of those schools every season. Btw, we should be able to abuse Cornell and Colgate too.
Last year showed us we can't rely on the ACC schedule to build a tourney resume. We need to be able to rely on ourselves to win some tough OOC games. If we can’t be competitive, then what's really the point?
If we flame out in November and early December, I can start booking ski trips for February and early March.

 

[jncuse]

50% RPI is still about 50% too much weighting to the RPI for my liking.

I like the wins above bubble stuff, I think that may be the best way to frame it. Two teams can have the roughly the same ranked schedule, but get their in vastly different ways (something barbelled like we have, with a few games against great teams and some against awful) or a bunch of games against pretty good teams.

That’s fair ..the 50/50 split would largely fix the scheduling issues caused by the NET even if zRPI completely sucks .. but tit weakens what should be intent of any ranking metric — To try to accurately measure teams as best as possible via some analytic measure.

 

[Eric15]

Before we worry about beating Houston, Kansas and Tennessee, we need to worry about beating Binghamton, Delaware State, Drexel and Monmouth. If those are all 15-20 point wins like they should be, that will tell us whether we're getting back to normal.

On paper those should be tune up games where we experiment with lineups and get the roster to gel. But we absolutely escaped our first three games last year (I know our roster is much different this year) against LeMoyne, Colgate and Youngstown State, the last of which needed two OTs.

 

[Niastri]

Before we worry about beating Houston, Kansas and Tennessee, we need to worry about beating Binghamton, Delaware State, Drexel and Monmouth. If those are all 15-20 point wins like they should be, that will tell us whether we're getting back to normal.

On paper those should be tune up games where we experiment with lineups and get the roster to gel. But we absolutely escaped our first three games last year (I know our roster is much different this year) against LeMoyne, Colgate and Youngstown State, the last of which needed two OTs.

I'm actually going for 40 point wins. If you win 8 games by 40 points, and play every other game to an average of a tie, you have successfully maxed out your "average margin of victory" component of the NET without necessarily being very good... Otherwise known as the Big12 Conference Scheduling Mandate.

I strongly suspect it's the reason we're playing mostly top 25 teams and bottom feeders in our ooc schedule this season.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

It’s due to NET.
Under the RPI playing too many sub 280 teams was playing with fire. The sweet spot for gaming the RPI was trying to schedule teams you knew you could beat but were not terrible — somewhere in the 100-150 area. View it as the Q3 home game.

Now you want to avoid those teams in the 100-180 area and beat up on su 280 teams under the NET. That’s why such a low % of OOC games for power conference teams are in Q3.

That being said it’s still relative margin. If you aren’t winning those games by an average of at least 20 points or more you are not helping yourself. And if you win them by amounts like we did last year you hurt yourself badly.

It’s why I push for a ranking system that is 50% old RPI and 50% NET. The weaknesses of each offset each other and encourage more balanced scheduling.

Would you describe it as...

nothing but NET?

 

[JonB]

Would you describe it as...

nothing but NET?

Complaining about the schedule is kind of stupid. If you have a good team, you’ll win games, if you don’t have a good team, you won’t win games. I suspect that they are gonna blow a lot of those terrible teams out, and they are gonna play the other teams close. They will have a chance to win and they will have a chance to lose some. It’s like any season, you play hard and see what happens.

 

[RedtheGOB]

I'm actually going for 40 point wins. If you win 8 games by 40 points, and play every other game to an average of a tie, you have successfully maxed out your "average margin of victory" component of the NET without necessarily being very good... Otherwise known as the Big12 Conference Scheduling Mandate.

I strongly suspect it's the reason we're playing mostly top 25 teams and bottom feeders in our ooc schedule this season.

Exactly. If you look at the net Q4 range at home its 160+ teams that’s 200 teams. Q3 = 76-159, another 85 teams. 285 cupcakes to choose from. The ACC as a whole should be scheduling as much fluff as possible to max those efficiencies and raise their nets as a league for conference play. Then play as many high profile games as possible, ideally to win but also where a loss doesn’t hurt.

Think about it this way. Let’s say we throw Siena on the calendar. Sure it’ll be a hype game with GMAC at the dome and there’ll be a few more butts in the seats and he’ll bring his squad in ready to play and we’ll get a fun game to watch prob. There’s zero upside for us tho playing in a rock fight in Nov-Dec. A close win actually hurts us, even a 10-15 pt win the net will say ouch not a good win should’ve won by 25-30 or even more. Especially when you consider other P5 conferences are running up their metrics blowing up a 350 net team by 45 the same night.

Lastly Q1 and Q2 it’s 30 and 45 teams which are your peer teams trying to make the tourney. We Need to have all ACC teams be in this Q1-Q2 range. If we don’t schedule well as a league the B12 is waiting which is why we’ve seen their bubble teams that arent even close to 500 in league play be in the tourney. ACC teams finishing in Q3-Q4 is really what sank the ACC and we’ve been guilty of it.

 

[Knicks411]

I'm actually going for 40 point wins. If you win 8 games by 40 points, and play every other game to an average of a tie, you have successfully maxed out your "average margin of victory" component of the NET without necessarily being very good... Otherwise known as the Big12 Conference Scheduling Mandate.

I strongly suspect it's the reason we're playing mostly top 25 teams and bottom feeders in our ooc schedule this season.

The only thing I would say to this is if you win 8 games by 40 points each, you probably are pretty good.

 

[tptcuse]

Complaining about the schedule is kind of stupid. If you have a good team, you’ll win games, if you don’t have a good team, you won’t win games. I suspect that they are gonna blow a lot of those terrible teams out, and they are gonna play the other teams close. They will have a chance to win and they will have a chance to lose some. It’s like any season, you play hard and see what happens.

You're correct in general. The problem is gaining momentum after the last few years so we have bigger crowds. I think it is super important that we get off a good start. That's the main reason the Vegas tournament concerns me. I want to see the Dome full again.

 

[JonB]

You're correct in general. The problem is gaining momentum after the last few years so we have bigger crowds. I think it is super important that we get off a good start. That's the main reason the Vegas tournament concerns me. I want to see the Dome full again.

If they win a couple of games in Vegas, the crowds are gonna be huge. People will be coming from New York, New Jersey, Canada to see them. They could do it…

 

[RedtheGOB]

If they win a couple of games in Vegas, the crowds are gonna be huge. People will be coming from New York, New Jersey, Canada to see them. They could do it…

Vegas has 18 teams playing 3 games each all Mon-Wed Thanksgiving week. Yes alot of people will be watching but I really don't believe our fanbase is going to say ok damn we lost to Houston and Kansas within 24 hours this season is cooked. I would say they need to be competitive though and be really careful about that 3rd game.

Crazy as it sounds that 3rd night we could still get matched up somehow with a handful of other top 25 or even top 10 teams if they are losing games too. Again so now you say ok we lost to 3 top 25 teams in 72 hours. Is that a dealbreaker, I don't think so. It would sting with a loss to Tenn as well at home so that's 4 losses to top 25 teams early on, What does that really tell us though, we're not a top 25 team right now which let's be real I don't think anyone expects early on anyway.

Either way I really think this team is going to be alot more fun to watch this year for our fanbase especially at home. We have a ton of guys playing above the rim and all they do is dunk and a real PG to lob it. We've got rid of the pout brothers (can't remember who called them that but it's great), Bell and Benny, that sit on the perimeter and air up 3's then when they miss cry about it for 10 mins. We should have great Guard play and Donnie is an awesome playmaker. Then you have some aggressiveness with the supporting cast with Kyle and Sadiq. Kiyan could be a big shooter off the bench that gets the crowd pumped too.

All the while the Nov/Dec non-con cupcake schedule should have about 10 games of crushing teams at the dome cuz like people said these are really bad teams we're playing at home outside of Tenn. Then league play.

 

[jncuse]

The only thing I would say to this is if you win 8 games by 40 points each, you probably are pretty good.

Your point stands with a few outliers. The last few years. B12 teams (in general) and Pitt seem to have outplayed Q4 teams margin wise relative to what they do against Q1/Q2.

That being said if you can't beat Q4 teams by an average of at least 20 points, you are likely not going to be good enough in games that matter to be a tournament team. There is a reason we barely beat Lemoyne, Youngstown last year. And it wasn't because we weren't trying to pummel them and let up. We just were not very good.

 

[Blanko97]

Someone has to lose those middle of the road games, so if Syracuse plays WVU and they are a 75 - 100 net team someone ends up getting an unforced "bad" loss pending location while the other gets a win that doesnt change much. With the expansion of conference games it just doesn't make sense to make your non-con schedule any more difficult then it needs to be. (note that this NIL tournament is unique, most dont have this insane of a lineup top to bottom)

 

[kingtidge]

Henry the Hyrax has been screaming about our schedule since it was released...

 

[tbonezone]

it's a perspective thing. do you like going into a game as an underdog or as the perceived easy upset ?

 

[grepal]

I agree with much of what is posted. I unfortunately think I have to walk away. I have followed SU football since 1950 as a young Bo going with my dad tonSU football games. In 1957 I was an usher at Archibald 58 too. I’ve the best on the gridiron the worst in hoops and everything in between. From before Dave Bing to the last few teams that disappointed. 2003 and the dream year. I saw the 59’ team and got to know many of the players in later years. The drought for the football team resurgence under Mac, kept alive by Pasqualoni and the severe drought since then with a few ok years since then. Hoops under Jimmy was a great run. Now however money is the entire deal. The Yankees of old or the dodgers of today. Money runs the ship. No such thing as a level playing field. Great coach for football now but money will kill that. I think Red can get it done, but you’ll see not me. Can’t take the uncertainty of todays market. Enjoy if you can what’s left. Can’t see players develop, players chasing the bag as they say. Loyalty is dead and I’m close. Sad. But I’m out. Peace to all.

I agree but all I have in Winter after Christmas is SU hoops. Especially when there no Olympics so I will stay. At least I got to see all of the good years. I will cheer hard but one can only pull for the laundry

 

[CardiacCuse]

Your point stands with a few outliers. The last few years. B12 teams (in general) and Pitt seem to have outplayed Q4 teams margin wise relative to what they do against Q1/Q2.

That being said if you can't beat Q4 teams by an average of at least 20 points, you are likely not going to be good enough in games that matter to be a tournament team. There is a reason we barely beat Lemoyne, Youngstown last year. And it wasn't because we weren't trying to pummel them and let up. We just were not very good.

margin of victory is more nuanced than that. maybe a coach only values winning and doesnt consider trying to win by a lot...or maybe he doesnt know how to win by a lot. maybe his coaching is adequate enough to get just enough out of a superior roster to barely beat inferior teams but that talent is also good enough to hang with much better teams ...maybe he came up in an era when W-L was all that mattered. its been the same pattern both of reds seasons thus far, I hope he has gotten this aspect sorted bc it has become ridiculously important. judah mintz squad got blown out a lot...and hung on for a bunch of nailbiters too (despite being a decently talented team, imo)

Complaining about the schedule is kind of stupid. If you have a good team, you’ll win games, if you don’t have a good team, you won’t win games. I suspect that they are gonna blow a lot of those terrible teams out, and they are gonna play the other teams close. They will have a chance to win and they will have a chance to lose some. It’s like any season, you play hard and see what happens.

usually this is spot on...but oftentimes theres a team that can beat most teams but just cant beat top 10 squads...especially maybe early on before they figure things out. its just odd to have elite q1 and q4 and not much in-between. hopefully youre right that even if they lose but stay close they will get credit for that...i think to really have a great season, though, they need to win some of those early marquee matchups...but even if they dont, it doesnt mean they couldnt be very very good by the end of the year.

 

[23Zone]

In my opinion there is no question that we have the talent this year to be an elite team. The biggest question for me for this to manifest and reach their potential is Red. Can he put the pieces together to develop chemistry and can he coach during the game with appropriate substitution patterns and strategic adjustments