I still think we can get to the NCAA tournament

[hoopsupstate]

If we win 12 ACC games the league should get 4 teams in the dance.

At the moment, I only see 3-4 teams in the ACC making the tournament. There’s a lot of very average teams in conference this year.

 

[shandeezy7]

Every loss this team has had has been by double digits. That's not a good indicator of a tournament team.

 

[Briancuse]

Our ooc resume is so weak we would need a miracle.

 

[AlaskaSU]

Can always win the ACCT no matter how bad the regular season is.

GMac used up his eligibility

 

[Orangezoo]

UC losing to Colgate, a couple weeks after they lost to Niagara. Up is down this year. From the looks UNC will be going down the same path as us this year. They could be staring at 6-7 after the next 3.

 

[DNABB5]

5-5 Minnesota just hammered every pundits "best team in America" by 13.

Duke and UNC have both lost to nonP5 teams at home while ranked (something unprecedented)

Moreso than any year I can recall, College hoops is WFO.

I am an optimist. The team is improving. I hope this post ages fantastically.

 

[20plus]

This isn't personal at all and I respect your optimism, but I always find this argument to be cringe-worthy. It implies that JB was randomly assigned these players and he's just trying his best with them. He recruited and built this entire lackluster roster, which is the primary responsibility of his job.

Great take and one that cannot be twisted by the lovers around here...

 

[jdubs30]

5-5 Minnesota just hammered every pundits "best team in America" by 13.

Duke and UNC have both lost to nonP5 teams at home while ranked (something unprecedented)

Moreso than any year I can recall, College hoops is WFO.

I am an optimist. The team is improving. I hope this post ages fantastically.

We still need the resume to prove it though

 

[Scotch]

Team Rankings gives us a 14% chance

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Feels about right.

 

[AZOrange]

5-5 Minnesota just hammered every pundits "best team in America" by 13.

Duke and UNC have both lost to nonP5 teams at home while ranked (something unprecedented)

Moreso than any year I can recall, College hoops is WFO.

I am an optimist. The team is improving. I hope this post ages fantastically.

In an effort to totally reverse jinx the season I will say NFW will we even get to .500

 

[jncuse]

At the moment, I only see 3-4 teams in the ACC making the tournament. There’s a lot of very average teams in conference this year.

They will probably get six. There is a lot of very average teams that get in the tournament each year. More then that might be difficult.

At this point, you can start to get a pretty good sense of the NCAA Field composition and what conferences will dominate the top 5 seed lines. Not individual teams, but the puzzle itself starts to form. Conferences can't really improve their standing much once January comes because they just play each other

While Conference RPI is not the best tool, I don't have many other conference rankings on hand, and it still correlates well to predictions even in the NET era.

You certainly can't predict individual teams, but schools that will dominate the # of seeds and top 5 seed lines. is possible to assess by now. And this year it will be the Big 10 and the Big 12, who were both very strong last year as well.

The big movers from the last couple of years is as follows:
The Pac 12 is comfortably up and will move up from 3 seeds, to a best guess of 6 seeds.
The SEC is way way down. They were 7 seeds last year, but I think they go to 4 or 5.
The ACC is down a fair bit as well -- they had seven last year, but I see the SEC taking a bigger hit.
The AAC had 4 bids last year, but has fell from #6 to #8 in conference rankings.


Last year 39 bids went to the top 7 conferences. This is my prediction for this year, assuming the same mix of bracket busters. I also don't think there will be a massive shift in teams outside of these conferences getting at large based on last year.

Big Ten - 9 (LY = 8)
Big 12 - 6 (LY - 6)
ACC - 6 (LY = 7)
Pac-12 - 6 (LY - 3)
Big East - 5 (LY -4)
SEC - 4 (LY-7)
AAC - 3 (LY - 4)

 

[Cusefan0307]

They will probably get six. There is a lot of very average teams that get in the tournament each year. More then that might be difficult.

At this point, you can start to get a pretty good sense of the NCAA Field composition and what conferences will dominate the top 5 seed lines. Not individual teams, but the puzzle itself starts to form. Conferences can't really improve their standing much once January comes because they just play each other

While Conference RPI is not the best tool, I don't have many other conference rankings on hand, and it still correlates well to predictions even in the NET era.

You certainly can't predict individual teams, but schools that will dominate the # of seeds and top 5 seed lines. is possible to assess by now. And this year it will be the Big 10 and the Big 12, who were both very strong last year as well.

View attachment 174168


The big movers from the last couple of years is as follows:
The Pac 12 is comfortably up and will move up from 3 seeds, to a best guess of 6 seeds.
The SEC is way way down. They were 7 seeds last year, but I think they go to 4 or 5.
The ACC is down a fair bit as well -- they had seven last year, but I see the SEC taking a bigger hit.
The AAC had 4 bids last year, but has fell from #6 to #8 in conference rankings.


Last year 39 bids went to the top 7 conferences. This is my prediction for this year, assuming the same mix of bracket busters. I also don't think there will be a massive shift in teams outside of these conferences getting at large based on last year.

Big Ten - 9 (LY = 8)
Big 12 - 6 (LY - 6)
ACC - 6 (LY = 7)
Pac-12 - 6 (LY - 3)
Big East - 5 (LY -4)
SEC - 4 (LY-7)
AAC - 3 (LY - 4)

That's about right. KP has the ACC 4th.

 

[Maxsumm]

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[Herkimercus]

Our only issue is we did nothing out of conference. We had 4 chances to beat other P5 schools and lost all 4 by double digits. We might be able to take advantage of the ACC schedule we have since it’s weak, but now we almost have to win 2 or 3 games against Duke, UVA, UNC, Louisville

Very good point and yes, the committee looks strongly at non conference and we crapped the bed. This simply isn't a good looking basketball team, the eye test matters and we aren't going to beat many decent teams with this current lineup. Sorry, recruiting, as far as we can see subjectively. is a disaster as of late.

 

[Alsacs]

We aren't making the tournament short of going 14-6 in conference play.

12-8 isn't going to do it. We missed the tournament 3 years ago that AW3/Gillon season when we went 7-4 in nonconference play and literally had nothing in nonconference play.
That team beat UVA, Florida State, Duke all at home barely lost in OT to Louisville.
We didn't make it that year. If you have no nonconference good wins then its basically go insane in conference play or you are done.

We aren't good enough to go 14-6 or even 13-7 in conference play. Just focus on winning 12 more games and securing a winning season.

 

[Gotothehole]

Not a chance for NIT have watched this team play?

 

[two3zone]

We aren't making the tournament short of going 14-6 in conference play.

12-8 isn't going to do it. We missed the tournament 3 years ago that AW3/Gillon season when we went 7-4 in nonconference play and literally had nothing in nonconference play.
That team beat UVA, Florida State, Duke all at home barely lost in OT to Louisville.
We didn't make it that year. If you have no nonconference good wins then its basically go insane in conference play or you are done.

We aren't good enough to go 14-6 or even 13-7 in conference play. Just focus on winning 12 more games and securing a winning season.

Considering were already 1-1, going 13-5 seems even less probable.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

I measure our chances of making the NCAA not in how many wins we need to get but how many more losses we can sustain this year and still have a chance. Right now that number is 8 remaining allowable losses.