I think I've figured this out a little bit...ACC expansion...

[44USMC]

Excellent analysis Jake. Thank you for the insight.

 

[OrangePA]

As of this afternoon, I think I've figured out Swofford's #1 motivation in adding Pitt and Syracuse. First you have to go back to last year and all the talk when Nebraska was being lured to the Big 10. When rumors were swirling about a massive change in the landscape, schools were all making secret alliances.

The one constant that I was hearing about Syracuse, was that we were tied to ND, I think it even leaked publically at one point. The thought was that we were tying ourselves to ND...but I think it was the other way around. ND was tying itself to Syracuse and Pitt - thinking that where ever ND went, they wanted to have at least one other small private school with it and there is also some connection to Pitt that ND has kept sacred over the years.

So what Swofford did was take away ND's security blankets and has now put ND on an island...and increased his chances of landing them. This completely explains Swarbick's reaction to yesterday's move. ("This was not any of the scenarios that I had predicted"..because he thought that he was tied to Pitt and SU). There is no doubt in my mind that teams #15 and #16 will come from the very small pool of ND, Rutgers and UCONN. UCONN is doing what it can to be #15, because I think everyone realizes that slot #16 will be held out for ND until the very last minute.

Here's why this gets really dangerous for Rutgers...as much as we or Rutgers like to say we carry the NYC market...well the truth is...ND carries it much better..so Swofford takes UCONN at #15 and then has nothing but a win-win situation left for spot #16. I think he knows that there are no scenarios where ND AND Rutgers go to the big ten...because the big ten knows that if they get ND, they have the NYC market and don't need Rutgers and if the Big Ten can't get ND...i'm not sure they excpand at all and take another mouth to feed without adding any revenue.

I now think the ND and Texas to the ACC for all sports but football was a Texas bluff in order to get a better deal out of the Pac soon to be 16.

Once Texas goes to the Pac 16, ND's chances of staying independant go up in smoke. 64 seats will be in the BCS party...and none of them are going to be willing to hold a special spot for ND now that Texas is in the fold.

Now ND has a choice to make. Go to the Big Ten and really be a fish out of water...or go to the ACC where the fit seems much better.

As a complete unreleated side note...TCU got ****** by Marinetto. Completely and utterly *cked. They would have probably been a player to get into the SEC with Texas aTm. Feel awful for them...they were rescued from a sinking ship, but their helicopter just crashed.

I think ND goes to the Big Ten.

For many reasons.

It already plays a Big Ten schedule.

It is in the midwest.

It sees itself as a true academic institution that would benefit from the research money that the Big Ten generates.

And, Coach K talked today about preserving the eastern time zone character of the conference.

 

[OrangePA]

If Notre Dame still is going to try to be an associate member, thinking it can still survive as an independent, Swofford's plan might work. But if Notre Dame is forced into a conference, it's still much more feasible for them to go to the Big Ten with their natural rivals for all sports. It's still more money and far less travel. Despite Notre Dame's attraction to the East coast (which is undoubtedly legit), they still have tried on a few occasions to become associate members of the Big Ten. Had Delany and the Big Ten presidents ever agreed to that arrangement, they'd be in the Big Ten long before now.

I think you're overthinking Swofford's actions on this. He took Syracuse and Pitt because they were the best, most obvious candidates for ACC expansion. Swofford realistically had no other place to look except for the Big East, and Syracuse and Pittsburgh were the two no-brainers for him. He acted because he needed to kill or be killed. This didn't have anything to do with Notre Dame (though I'm sure he'll do what he can to lure them). This was all about ACC survival.

I agree with this - I don't think ND drove this decision at all.

 

[Chip]

I think ND goes to the Big Ten.

For many reasons.

It already plays a Big Ten schedule.

It is in the midwest.

It sees itself as a true academic institution that would benefit from the research money that the Big Ten generates.

And, Coach K talked today about preserving the eastern time zone character of the conference.

ND is in the eastern time zone half the year, if that counts for anything. Unless they changed that, I don't pay much attention to that state. But regardless I can't imagine Coach K wanting to preserve an eastern time zone would have single ounce of weight in the decision.

I don't think the ACC move was as calculated as Jake's post re: SU, Pitt, ND. But I'm sure Swofford is awared that ND thinks highest of Pitt and SU of all of the all sports teams in the now old Big East.

ND to the Big 10 makes the most sense. They throw in Mizzou, Kansas and one other (can't imagine they want K State or Iowa State) and they'll have a nice 16 team all sports super conference that generally sits in the same region.

 

[longtimefan]

I was looking at ND's schedule this year and found it rather interesting that they are playing 3 games vs ACC teams (in a row) later this year, @ Wake, vs Maryland and Boston College.

Boston College could have some pull to bring ND to the ACC (along with Pitt and SU).

There's just a lot of logistics that need to work out with ND. First, they will want to maintain their NBC home game contract. That means the ACC will have to give up rights to at least 4 premier games each year. Second, ND has less flexibility in their scheduling. If they have 3 or 4 open slots outside of ACC play, you know they will always use 2 to schedule USC and Michigan. Will they use the other two for Mich St or Purdue?

How about their blood brother connection to Navy? Or is that just another casualty in the Brave New World?

 

[longtimefan]

I don't think they'd remotely be a fish out of water. They routinely play B10 teams and their travel would be easier than in the ACC. Enrollment-wise, they're more like an ACC school but the similarity ends there. Everything else about them is oversized. They have B10-size $$$, B10 sized following, B10 sized traditions, B10 sized stadium and on and on and on. They are more like a B10 school than a number of current B10 members, to be honest.

Academically, they are quite unlike the B1G land grant behemoths. But, in this environment, that may not mean much.

 

[nralecuse]

agree with you

 

[HtownOrange]

Fish out of water may have been an exaggeration...but Swofford has definitely made the ACC a more attractive option for ND...and that was the goal and motivation of adding Pitt and Syracuse first.

Actually, I understand it very well.. I also understand that the 4X16 model everyone keeps dreaming of is more dangerous than you may wish to believe. Once the non AQs outnumber the AQs, they will out-vote the AQs. Simple mathematics. Additionally, having such a slim majority is not very convincing to rogue politicians that need face time for their constituents. It is immaterial to a politician whether it goes anywhere, only that they get face time and embarrass a few people (conference commissioners).

Further, the playoff has already been approved by the schools of the two major holdouts, the B1G and PAC 12, so conference approval was near before any alignment.

Finally, the super-conferences may not attain 16 teams in this immediate go-round. It still likely that a 5th AQ conference, or even a 6th (they may allow a current non-AQ to step up) remains in play.

All of that brings us to the fact that Notre Dame will have to cut ties with several of its long-standing opponents if it joins a conference. They will also have to limit their freedom to play any school they wish. Notre Dame is built on their national following and really wishes to avoid a regional conference affiliation. Regionally, no one disputes the B1G is the place for Notre Dame. Academically/institutionally, most agree that Notre Dame is a better fit for the ACC, then the B1G. Playing 8 or 9 games in conference limits their ability to maintain their national following. Personally, I think they would be OK, but I have no input in their decision. I have spoken to and read many ND fans and alumni and this is the general consensus. The above poster that stated the faculty would prefer to the B1G seems to be generally correct, too. The big donors still wish for ND independence.

 

[PeteCalvin]

As of this afternoon, I think I've figured out Swofford's #1 motivation in adding Pitt and Syracuse. First you have to go back to last year and all the talk when Nebraska was being lured to the Big 10. When rumors were swirling about a massive change in the landscape, schools were all making secret alliances.

The one constant that I was hearing about Syracuse, was that we were tied to ND, I think it even leaked publically at one point. The thought was that we were tying ourselves to ND...but I think it was the other way around. ND was tying itself to Syracuse and Pitt - thinking that where ever ND went, they wanted to have at least one other small private school with it and there is also some connection to Pitt that ND has kept sacred over the years.

So what Swofford did was take away ND's security blankets and has now put ND on an island...and increased his chances of landing them. This completely explains Swarbick's reaction to yesterday's move. ("This was not any of the scenarios that I had predicted"..because he thought that he was tied to Pitt and SU). There is no doubt in my mind that teams #15 and #16 will come from the very small pool of ND, Rutgers and UCONN. UCONN is doing what it can to be #15, because I think everyone realizes that slot #16 will be held out for ND until the very last minute.

Here's why this gets really dangerous for Rutgers...as much as we or Rutgers like to say we carry the NYC market...well the truth is...ND carries it much better..so Swofford takes UCONN at #15 and then has nothing but a win-win situation left for spot #16. I think he knows that there are no scenarios where ND AND Rutgers go to the big ten...because the big ten knows that if they get ND, they have the NYC market and don't need Rutgers and if the Big Ten can't get ND...i'm not sure they excpand at all and take another mouth to feed without adding any revenue.

I now think the ND and Texas to the ACC for all sports but football was a Texas bluff in order to get a better deal out of the Pac soon to be 16.

Once Texas goes to the Pac 16, ND's chances of staying independant go up in smoke. 64 seats will be in the BCS party...and none of them are going to be willing to hold a special spot for ND now that Texas is in the fold.

Now ND has a choice to make. Go to the Big Ten and really be a fish out of water...or go to the ACC where the fit seems much better.

As a complete unreleated side note...TCU got ****** by Marinetto. Completely and utterly *cked. They would have probably been a player to get into the SEC with Texas aTm. Feel awful for them...they were rescued from a sinking ship, but their helicopter just crashed.

Well stated, Jake. I had the same thoughts regarding ND. I just don't see them sitting well in the Big 10+. I figured that the ACC was a better match for them, regardless of the distance. The ACC has a high population of strong academic private schools. Plus, they have a perfect landing zone for their up and coming lacrosse program (although I'm sure that Lax has very little to do with any of this...but I'm sure it's a consideration). I thought the ND AD's comments were more of a smoke screen. I think they know more than they a letting on. Personally, I don't think ND wants to get played by the Big 10+. They want to go somewhere where it appears like THEY are making the call. If they go to the Big 10+, there will always be rumblings that they were manipulated or had to kneel before the Big 10+ brass. No, I think ND is going to throw a curve ball here and stick it to the Big 10. They will hold out to the end and join the ACC with all the pomp and circumstance they want. The Big Whatever will end up with Missouri and Kansas, which make better sense there than anyplace else. It'll be ND's proverbial knife to the heart of the conference that has always wanted them.

 

[Dick_in_MI]

Academically, they are quite unlike the B1G land grant behemoths. But, in this environment, that may not mean much.

Not sure exactly what you mean. There are several B10 schools that are among the finest academic institutions in the country.

 

[raf4488]

Not sure exactly what you mean. There are several B10 schools that are among the finest academic institutions in the country.

I think he's saying that ACC schools are generally more like SU- smaller, less research oriented with a significant private school presence. That's not necessarily a commentary on academic quality, but rather academic mission.

 

[sufan]

As of this afternoon, I think I've figured out Swofford's #1 motivation in adding Pitt and Syracuse. First you have to go back to last year and all the talk when Nebraska was being lured to the Big 10. When rumors were swirling about a massive change in the landscape, schools were all making secret alliances.

The one constant that I was hearing about Syracuse, was that we were tied to ND, I think it even leaked publically at one point. The thought was that we were tying ourselves to ND...but I think it was the other way around. ND was tying itself to Syracuse and Pitt - thinking that where ever ND went, they wanted to have at least one other small private school with it and there is also some connection to Pitt that ND has kept sacred over the years.

So what Swofford did was take away ND's security blankets and has now put ND on an island...and increased his chances of landing them. This completely explains Swarbick's reaction to yesterday's move. ("This was not any of the scenarios that I had predicted"..because he thought that he was tied to Pitt and SU). There is no doubt in my mind that teams #15 and #16 will come from the very small pool of ND, Rutgers and UCONN. UCONN is doing what it can to be #15, because I think everyone realizes that slot #16 will be held out for ND until the very last minute.

Here's why this gets really dangerous for Rutgers...as much as we or Rutgers like to say we carry the NYC market...well the truth is...ND carries it much better..so Swofford takes UCONN at #15 and then has nothing but a win-win situation left for spot #16. I think he knows that there are no scenarios where ND AND Rutgers go to the big ten...because the big ten knows that if they get ND, they have the NYC market and don't need Rutgers and if the Big Ten can't get ND...i'm not sure they excpand at all and take another mouth to feed without adding any revenue.

I now think the ND and Texas to the ACC for all sports but football was a Texas bluff in order to get a better deal out of the Pac soon to be 16.

Once Texas goes to the Pac 16, ND's chances of staying independant go up in smoke. 64 seats will be in the BCS party...and none of them are going to be willing to hold a special spot for ND now that Texas is in the fold.

Now ND has a choice to make. Go to the Big Ten and really be a fish out of water...or go to the ACC where the fit seems much better.

As a complete unreleated side note...TCU got ****** by Marinetto. Completely and utterly *cked. They would have probably been a player to get into the SEC with Texas aTm. Feel awful for them...they were rescued from a sinking ship, but their helicopter just crashed.

------------------------

Another perspective:

1) The ACC knows which way the wind is blowing and decided to act rather than hold their breath.

2) they decided they are only going to accept schools that want to be full partners in revenue and all sports; they don't want any second tier academic schools like WVU; above all they want to be an Atlantic Coast conference: they are not inviting Kansas, Missouri, or any hanger-on teams UT might want.

3) They selected the 2 best teams available in Pitt and SU, greatly expanding the conference profile into a true coastal conference, with all the long term benefits; left open 2 spots for UT and ND if they truly want in, and have implied they are open to add 2 additional northeast teams if UT is out, which it apparently is, or if ND is not interested: time will tell.

If ACC gets ND as a result of adding SU and Pitt, that is an additional big win for them; however that is not why they selected SU and Pitt.

Any decision ND makes will take time; but my guess is the ACC could act sooner rather than later, should it become apparent ND is not interested.

With respect to the Big 10, adding RU makes a lot of sense: it is a large research university, in a big market, in a state bordering PSU. They could easily add RU even without waiting for ND. What is holding them back is their mid-west conference identity.

 

[longtimefan]

Not sure exactly what you mean. There are several B10 schools that are among the finest academic institutions in the country.

The emphasis for most of the Big 10 schools is on graduate education and research. ND's primary goal is undergraduate education--which is why they are not an AAU member.

 

[omniorange]

To complete the northeastern corridor strategy, the ACC needs both NYC and Philly. The best combo to get both is ND and PSU which is extremely unlikely.

But IF they could persuade ND (since PSU is way more unlikely than the Irish), then Rutgers is actually the better option than UConn since ND + BC gives the ACC Boston's two favorite college football teams, ND + SU + RU gives the ACC 3 of NYC's top 4 favorite college football teams, and with ND + Maryland + RU + SU the ACC at least has some Philly inroads.

Personally I much prefer UConn over RU. And in a bb-crazy league like the ACC, that may win day. Heck, the Irish might tell the ACC #16 will be UConn or else they aren't coming.

Still believe ND will try and stick it out as indy with their other sports with the bb schools in the Big East at least until 2015.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[chakka3421]

My only perspective is it forces NDs hand - meaning it has to show one of it's aces. The ace is join now or forever be excluded from the ACC because the ACC will be going to 16 teams. Yes Jake I agree with your assessment as it makes a lot of sense now but in addition SU and Pitt add great value to the ACC in their own right as well.

Reminds me a little of who is in and who is out when they pick the bball teams in the weeks leading up to the NCAA tourney.

 

[mojaveheel]

Pete Calvin:

the Big 10 has not always wanted ND...

in the first half of the twentieth century ND asked in and were rejected and they have never forgiven the slight, even if there is no one around today that was around when it happened (I'm halfway through my 60s and it happened long before I started liking college football in my early teens)...

big mistake, they were not only rejected but it was rubbed in...

but for that, I think they might have already joined, and they get less from the NBC contract than schools in the B1G or the SEC get every year...

this one ain't about the $$$...

 

[KaiserUEO]

jake, im down with a lot of that.

i hear you on the NYC market and ND. my only tidbit would be that i would guess the big boys in the b1g would want to 'play' a game in NYC (Giants Stadium) every couple of years or so. only way that happens is with rutgers.

but if they dont care to do that, then getting ND gets them NYC and they would likely ignore rut. im just not sure theyre willing to do that.

 

[TheOrangeBuddha]

I was looking at ND's schedule this year and found it rather interesting that they are playing 3 games vs ACC teams (in a row) later this year, @ Wake, vs Maryland and Boston College.

Boston College could have some pull to bring ND to the ACC (along with Pitt and SU).

There's just a lot of logistics that need to work out with ND. First, they will want to maintain their NBC home game contract. That means the ACC will have to give up rights to at least 4 premier games each year. Second, ND has less flexibility in their scheduling. If they have 3 or 4 open slots outside of ACC play, you know they will always use 2 to schedule USC and Michigan. Will they use the other two for Mich St or Purdue?

Notre Dame will ALWAYS play Navy. That would be one of their annual games. My guess would be USC for the other, but that could change.

Peace

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Notre Dame will ALWAYS play Navy. That would be one of their annual games. My guess would be USC for the other, but that could change.

USC and Stanford. ND will always have at least 1 game on the West Coast every year.

Plus Navy, and rotate Michigan, Michigan St and Purdue.

 

[Chip]

Notre Dame will ALWAYS play Navy. That would be one of their annual games. My guess would be USC for the other, but that could change.

Peace

Don't see them wanting to give up the Stanford game either. Lack of scheduling flexibility is up there with NBC as reasons why ND wants nothing to do with a conference.

 

[jordoo]

Don't see them wanting to give up the Stanford game either. Lack of scheduling flexibility is up there with NBC as reasons why ND wants nothing to do with a conference.

But they have to pick one soon or be lost in the shuffle. If your not one of the 64 you don't have a chance to even play for the NC in fball. This is an easy concept that people are not grasping when it comes to ND staying independent. They are in the same place as any other team not secured in the ACC, PAC, BIG or SEC. Sure they are wanted by both the ACC and BIG but they cannot remain independent. That's out the window now.

 

[Ragman2000]

ND is in the eastern time zone half the year, if that counts for anything. Unless they changed that, I don't pay much attention to that state. But regardless I can't imagine Coach K wanting to preserve an eastern time zone would have single ounce of weight in the decision.

I don't think the ACC move was as calculated as Jake's post re: SU, Pitt, ND. But I'm sure Swofford is awared that ND thinks highest of Pitt and SU of all of the all sports teams in the now old Big East.

ND to the Big 10 makes the most sense. They throw in Mizzou, Kansas and one other (can't imagine they want K State or Iowa State) and they'll have a nice 16 team all sports super conference that generally sits in the same region.

Chip, Indiana finally joined the 20th Century (yes, 20th) by adding daylight savings time about 5 years ago or so (meaning it's Eastern Time year round). Governor Mitch Daniels literally ran on this platform for his first term, no joke. You'd have that it was the abortion debate the way people were vehemently pro or con DST. As a CNY'er in Indiana, I found it hilarious.

 

[Chip]

But they have to pick one soon or be lost in the shuffle. If your not one of the 64 you don't have a chance to even play for the NC in fball. This is an easy concept that people are not grasping when it comes to ND staying independent. They are in the same place as any other team not secured in the ACC, PAC, BIG or SEC. Sure they are wanted by both the ACC and BIG but they cannot remain independent. That's out the window now.

Put me in the camp that ND can wait around and see if 64 team speculation even becomes real. If it does, and they need to join one of the 4 leagues, they will each make a pitch to ND and let them know who they'll kick out.

 

[cto]

As of this afternoon, I think I've figured out Swofford's #1 motivation in adding Pitt and Syracuse. First you have to go back to last year and all the talk when Nebraska was being lured to the Big 10. When rumors were swirling about a massive change in the landscape, schools were all making secret alliances.

The one constant that I was hearing about Syracuse, was that we were tied to ND, I think it even leaked publically at one point. The thought was that we were tying ourselves to ND...but I think it was the other way around. ND was tying itself to Syracuse and Pitt - thinking that where ever ND went, they wanted to have at least one other small private school with it and there is also some connection to Pitt that ND has kept sacred over the years.

So what Swofford did was take away ND's security blankets and has now put ND on an island...and increased his chances of landing them. This completely explains Swarbick's reaction to yesterday's move. ("This was not any of the scenarios that I had predicted"..because he thought that he was tied to Pitt and SU). There is no doubt in my mind that teams #15 and #16 will come from the very small pool of ND, Rutgers and UCONN. UCONN is doing what it can to be #15, because I think everyone realizes that slot #16 will be held out for ND until the very last minute.

Here's why this gets really dangerous for Rutgers...as much as we or Rutgers like to say we carry the NYC market...well the truth is...ND carries it much better..so Swofford takes UCONN at #15 and then has nothing but a win-win situation left for spot #16. I think he knows that there are no scenarios where ND AND Rutgers go to the big ten...because the big ten knows that if they get ND, they have the NYC market and don't need Rutgers and if the Big Ten can't get ND...i'm not sure they excpand at all and take another mouth to feed without adding any revenue.

I now think the ND and Texas to the ACC for all sports but football was a Texas bluff in order to get a better deal out of the Pac soon to be 16.

Once Texas goes to the Pac 16, ND's chances of staying independant go up in smoke. 64 seats will be in the BCS party...and none of them are going to be willing to hold a special spot for ND now that Texas is in the fold.

Now ND has a choice to make. Go to the Big Ten and really be a fish out of water...or go to the ACC where the fit seems much better.

As a complete unreleated side note...TCU got ****** by Marinetto. Completely and utterly *cked. They would have probably been a player to get into the SEC with Texas aTm. Feel awful for them...they were rescued from a sinking ship, but their helicopter just crashed.

Isn't this what I said last night .... in many fewer words? The new ACC is the logical place for ND. And, yes, Indiana is connected to the Atlantic Ocean .. via the Big Lakes and the St Lawrence Seaway! Makes sense to me.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

Notre Dame will ALWAYS play Navy. That would be one of their annual games. My guess would be USC for the other, but that could change.

Peace

As long as ND is independent they will always play Navy. If ND goes to any conference (except the B1G) than all bets are off.

I see USC and Michigan being their #1 priorities, but it's possible Navy takes the third slot for yearly games.