If we don’t make the tournament next yr, is Red gone? | Page 3 | Syracusefan.com

If we don’t make the tournament next yr, is Red gone?

We have to get use to 30% player retention each year. The departures accounting for 70% will be replaced with 20% high school recruits and 50% portal.

I think the right move would be to bring in a big (PF/C), wing (SF), and guard (PG/SG) from HS each year and also a big, wing, and guard from the portal each year. So 6 new faces a year plus whatever is still left over on the roster.

Really it will be lucky to get a kid for 2 years going forward.
 
All of those guys had previous track records that showed they could be successful and they also didn't have the advantage of immediate help through the transfer portal while they were building.
Came to say the second part of your post about the instant rebuild in the portal. That has shortened the leash on new hires. Can’t compare to new hires in the previous era where they had to slowly build through high school recruits.
 
I think the right move would be to bring in a big (PF/C), wing (SF), and guard (PG/SG) from HS each year and also a big, wing, and guard from the portal each year. So 6 new faces a year plus whatever is still left over on the roster.

Really it will be lucky to get a kid for 2 years going forward.
I agree. Whether it's a kid out of HS or a portal transfer, keeping a kid for 2 years in a row is an accomplishment. 3+ years at the same school will be rare moving forward. Correct me if I'm wrong, but assuming he stays, Bell will be the only one on the team next year that will have 2 previous years spent at cuse. From what I've read on here sounds like it's a mattet of when not if Judah transfers
 
Poor Red Autry. With fans like in this thread, who needs enemies?
I’m sure he cries himself to sleep on a giant pile of money instead of worrying about posts on a message board. If he can’t handle fans who’ve watched a very good to great program decline to an afterthought mid-major and are champing at the bit to get back to the Tourney, let alone a top-20 team, then maybe he’s not the right guy for the job.

25k plus fans don’t show up because they don’t care about the program.
 
I’m sure he cries himself to sleep on a giant pile of money instead of worrying about posts on a message board. If he can’t handle fans who’ve watched a very good to great program decline to an afterthought mid-major and are champing at the bit to get back to the Tourney, let alone a top-20 team, then maybe he’s not the right guy for the job.

25k plus fans don’t show up because they don’t care about the program.
I rest my case.
 
I rest my case.
So there's just nothing to worry about in your world? Instead of addressing concerns intelligently, it seems like your go to move is to insult everyone's fandom if they have concerns about missing the NCAA for ANOTHER year. But all is well in your world as long as they have fun I guess.
 
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JW didn’t hire a JB loyal assistant coach to just give him 2 years. Last year Red had mostly players recruited for JB’s style of play which is very different from how Red wants to coach & play.

I look at last year as year 0 & this year as Red’s first year with a roster he chooses. Red gets 3 years minimum and likely 4 to make the tournament. It’s hard to be patient. Let’s support him.
 
We were closer to the bubble and won more games in 2024 than we were in 2022 and 2023. If we take a huge step back in 2025 and have a .500ish season overall, I will be very worried.

It's possible in 2025 that we get stronger as a program but still miss the tourney again. It will obviously suck as a fan to be left out again.

2026 has to be it. Tourney or bust.
 
Losing Maliq is a huge blow. If we lose Judah, there isn’t much left. It’s not like we have our pickings of the top transfers. I realize with NIL, it’s not easy for coaches, but you have to retain key pieces. I would say he should go if another year of no tourney. And this time, a national search would have to take place.
should be. Will he? Probably not.
 
as been said. Red's been in this program for years. he gets less rope. whoever he manages to wrangle in this season with the new rules it's the same deal next spring. you gotta show you can build and win thru the portal. this summer is his shot. if he don't get it done now it won't get no better after another down year.
 
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We are a top 15 program (at worst). Not just a random power conf team
I know that WE think so, but with the brand diminished after the past few years, no longer a HOF coach at the helm, all amplified by the "what have you done for me lately" spirit of the easy transfer / NIL era, does historical success even matter to these kids? Only 5th year seniors were even born when we won in '03, I doubt any recruits remember our last FF nearly a decade ago.

Hopefully playing in front of a 30k+ Dome crowd is still a relevant selling point, although last year's crowds were a noticeable dropoff from years past...and the decline may continue with middling on court success plus the massive upcharge I just got for my seasons tickets next year.

Not trying to be a downer, but genuinely curious...what are our main selling points to a recruit or transfer? Can someone cheer me up please?
 
I think the right strategy now is going to be different from the right strategy in a few years. Right now, I would probably advise most good players to either enter the draft or go into the portal every year. It's how you're going to maximize your money.

This should lead to more parity among power conference programs and fewer Cinderella runs from mid majors. This kind of played out this year, with one double digit Sweet 16 team and it was NC State, not a mid major.

Now, the way for a school to be an exception to that guidance for good players to always enter the portal, is to make sure your key players get such a big increase in their NIL bag each year that they don't want to test the portal, while also having a good relationship with them and developing them with a good coaching staff. This probably means overpaying the market rate to prevent them from even testing it - whether that be in guaranteed money or total amount or both. This may annoy your new players, but your reply is just, "We reward loyalty, and if you have a good year and don't test the market next year, you'll be in line to get a big reward like that too." Plus the incoming players will be getting at/above the market value for their services anyway.

All that said, the current dynamic is not good for the sport and it's not the best for the players either. Some sort of collective bargaining and longer commitments or a limit on transfers are needed, more transparency on money earned is beneficial, and IMO they are likely to be the end result because it's in every stakeholder's interest in one way or another. Once that happens, it's going to be more like the old system than the current system. Most guys will transfer zero or one times, and schools will have a little more control over the NIL money whether it's still officially indirect or not.

I would also like to see some sort of cash flowing to programs that lose players in the portal, kind of like the NFL does compensatory picks, so that they can have a fighting chance to build up their funds and keep some of their stars from time to time... But I don't see that happening, because it's not in the interest of the power conferences who have most of the power here.

Looping back to the OP, I'm not sure what the right skillset is for a coach in the current situation is. Have the biggest NIL bags around, be good at the portal, be good at building out contingency plans and executing them when you miss on your main targets, and be good at getting guys to gel and grow as the year goes on. I guess we'll get a good idea of how Red does at that this year.

In the eventual dynamic, I think he's got a pretty good skillset for it, so hopefully the shift towards that happens sooner rather than later.
Great analysis. Agreed that things are going to change (and hopefully settle out a bit) over the next couple of years, whether through rule changes or just strategy changes to increase retention. I like your idea of NIL increases year-over-year. Are there any more explicit ways to create "multi-year contracts" under current NIL system, or would that be against the rules as they currently stand?
 
I know that WE think so, but with the brand diminished after the past few years, no longer a HOF coach at the helm, all amplified by the "what have you done for me lately" spirit of the easy transfer / NIL era, does historical success even matter to these kids? Only 5th year seniors were even born when we won in '03, I doubt any recruits remember our last FF nearly a decade ago.

Hopefully playing in front of a 30k+ Dome crowd is still a relevant selling point, although last year's crowds were a noticeable dropoff from years past...and the decline may continue with middling on court success plus the massive upcharge I just got for my seasons tickets next year.

Not trying to be a downer, but genuinely curious...what are our main selling points to a recruit or transfer? Can someone cheer me up please?
UCONN sure found a way back.
 
It isn't about the bag. It's about his place.
"Maliq, here's what we can promise you. You're going to get meaningful minutes at the 4. Probably around 20-25 a game. You're going to get around 5-10 minutes a game at the 5. The mix is going to vary based on the opponent, which is going to allow you to showcase your skills. You're not going to be playing more than a couple minutes at the 5 when the 5 is a 6'11, 270 pound banger. When the matchup favors you, you'll get more time there. Our ability to put you in the position that best showcases your skills depending on matchups is in your best interest long-term. But the trade off is we can't guarantee you 25 minutes every single game at the 4, or guarantee you starting at the 4. We understand that is disappointing to you, but we want to make sure you understand how important you are to this team and that your importance goes beyond your role at the opening tip, which is why the size of your bag is going to have everything to do with what you mean to us, and the importance of your minutes, and very little to do with whether you're the "starting PF." We think you'll find this particular bag to be to your liking!"
 
Are there any more explicit ways to create "multi-year contracts" under current NIL system, or would that be against the rules as they currently stand?
I have no idea, I assume it could be done but not with the direct input of the school. If I were an AD/coach working with our NIL folks, my goal would be to be able to overpay market prices on terms that locked some players in to two years. Seems like a good way to "overspend" and get a great advantage on the competition that can't afford to match.
 
"Maliq, here's what we can promise you. You're going to get meaningful minutes at the 4. Probably around 20-25 a game. You're going to get around 5-10 minutes a game at the 5. The mix is going to vary based on the opponent, which is going to allow you to showcase your skills. You're not going to be playing more than a couple minutes at the 5 when the 5 is a 6'11, 270 pound banger. When the matchup favors you, you'll get more time there. Our ability to put you in the position that best showcases your skills depending on matchups is in your best interest long-term. But the trade off is we can't guarantee you 25 minutes every single game at the 4, or guarantee you starting at the 4. We understand that is disappointing to you, but we want to make sure you understand how important you are to this team and that your importance goes beyond your role at the opening tip, which is why the size of your bag is going to have everything to do with what you mean to us, and the importance of your minutes, and very little to do with whether you're the "starting PF." We think you'll find this particular bag to be to your liking!"
That works for me. But I would bet that they had that conversation with him. And it didn't work.
 
That works for me. But I would bet that they had that conversation with him. And it didn't work.
We have to hope they had it with him, and they have the depth of pockets in NIL money to try to smooth over situations like this, and it just didn't work this time. At the end of the day, the current system should lead to a ton of parity and more distribution of talent, and Maliq is a perfect example of that.
 

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