IMO College Basketball is in serious jeopardy of not having a season at least the fall semester

[reedny]

I should have expected this. While possible to be aerosolized, especially in very specific circumstances like using a nebulizer in a lab, this is generally thought to be the exception not the rule. Coughing is much different than the NEJM methods.

Not to pick on you, but I think you might have missed the point of #2. By my reading, the FB post wasn't denying that SARS-Cov-2 is spread by droplets. Rather, it was explaining that viruses like SARS CoV-2 can also be spread by airborne particles, as opposed to the flu - which generally cannot. Whether you agree with 3 hours of airborne stability or not, it's still pretty disturbing how contagious it is.

COVID-19 vs. the Flu

www.hopkinsmedicine.org

 

[orange79]

The acceptable death rate is zero but that isn't feasible. People are going to die from it just like they do from the flu or heart disease. At some point we are going to have to stop hiding in our houses in fear and start living again.

 

[donniesyracuse]

View attachment 180094

Unfortunately, many of these people have already reproduced.

 

[RealMcNeil]

Not to pick on you, but I think you might have missed the point of #2. By my reading, the FB post wasn't denying that SARS-Cov-2 is spread by droplets. Rather, it was explaining that SARS-CoV-2 can also be spread by airborne particles, as opposed to the flue - which generally can't. Whether you agree with 3 hours of airborne stability or not, it's still pretty disturbing how contagious it is.

As can influenza. The commonly held belief, however, is that aerosols are not the most common mechanism for transmission. I will say, and concede if it makes you feel better, that nobody truly knows the relative importance of aerosol, droplet or contact transmission in these infectious respiratory illnesses.

I took exception with the point because I think it misrepresents the situation in a very substantive way. Most people don’t fully understand or appreciate what “airborne” means, so saying that with extremely limited empirical evidence is dangerous.

What I’m saying is not to downplay the seriousness of the virus whatsoever. As a NYC resident, I’ve seen what it does.

 

[moqui]

you should run for office because you've got all the answers.

it's information. people can synthesize it into their thinking, or not, i don't care. it's clear that you won't.

 

[SUbear]

please name them. I must admit that I am impressed with his resume. But I am sure that I would be impressed with Dr Drew and dr Oz and Dr Phil (not a medical Dr) and they sure made fools of themselves over this.

I will call one for you, in the very first sentence he says it a different specie, a virus is not a specie in any accepted definition of that term. A virus is a molecule of RNA, and there has always been a debate as to if it is a living thing in any normal definition of that word. Species can reproduce on there own. Virus can not. Virus replicate by forcing your cells or another species cells to replicate the virus structure. A more accurate description would be it has a different molecular structure.
#2 is just stupid.

 

[Fly Rodder]

it's information. people can synthesize it into your thinking, or not, i don't care. it's clear that you won't.

You obviously do care. You think that the global response is wrong. I mean that's your point, right? Why post a bunch of stuff that essentially undermines the current global responses? You think they're wrong because ... you're smarter than them? You think they all missed some basic information? That's some serious hubris. I find it interesting that you feel that nearly all of the experts are wrong, but you can find the real truth at an anonymous twitter account that only started posting on 31 March of this year.

I am 100% in favor of ending this stupid pandemic. I am emphatically hoping for the best case scenario to happen. However, I think that the professional epidemiologists, virologists, and pubic health officials are doing the best that they can with the information that they have available to them. I don't think, like you, that their response is borne out of some conspiracy theory to mislead the public and/or because they missed something early on and are trying to cover their asses.

Remember, no big deal, it;s just a big overreaction:

 

[721Comstock]

Unfortunately, many of these people have already reproduced.

Yes, but - they’ve passed on their ‘stupid’ genes, so their offspring will also kill them selves off early too.

 

[dasher]

I will call one for you, in the very first sentence he says it a different specie, a virus is not a specie in any accepted definition of that term. A virus is a molecule of RNA, and there has always been a debate as to if it is a living thing in any normal definition of that word. Species can reproduce on there own. Virus can not. Virus replicate by forcing your cells or another species cells to replicate the virus structure. A more accurate description would be it has a different molecular structure.
#2 is just stupid.

Saying something is stupid is not much of an argument. especially when someone posted right after that some study that said the Coronavirus could stay airborne for up to 3 hours. Now, none of this is in my field. My jr year high school biology course is legendary at my old high school. Just to say, my lab partner was blind and insisted on doing most of the stuff. We set the room on fire. Having said that, I will listen to the experts that I trust on this. And they sound a lot like that Dr above. The one with the great resume.

 

[Briancuse]

I think there seems to be two opposite ends of the spectrum here those who want everything and those who want to quarantine for two more years. I'm not suggesting going to crowded beaches or concerts or bars. However if we are cautious I don't see why we can't start opening more businesses and get kids back to school in the fall.

 

[Briancuse]

Saying something is stupid is not much of an argument. especially when someone posted right after that some study that said the Coronavirus could stay airborne for up to 3 hours. Now, none of this is in my field. My jr year high school biology course is legendary at my old high school. Just to say, my lab partner was blind and insisted on doing most of the stuff. We set the room on fire. Having said that, I will listen to the experts that I trust on this. And they sound a lot like that Dr above. The one with the great resume.

Here is the thing and I have all the respect in the world for these Doctors and medical experts but even they don't have a great handle on this virus. Some even admit as much.

 

[Fly Rodder]

However if we are cautious I don't see why we can't start opening more businesses and get kids back to school in the fall.

Absolutely. A shelter-in-place isn't forever. It's a temporary fix. However, if the spread fires up back up, then everything we sacrificed in March and April was for naught, no? So maybe we take advantage of this time to ensure that we're absolutely prepared to deal with a resurgence and slowly reopen as best we can and not block entrances to hospitals and show up to statehouses with ARs to show how peaceful we are?

 

[dasher]

Here is the thing and I have all the respect in the world for these Doctors and medical experts but even they don't have a great handle on this virus. Some even admit as much.

History. The pandemic in 1917/18 came in the spring. And it wasn't all that bad. It went away a bit during the summer and came back with a second wave much worse than the first. It was a disaster. We have to be very careful not to jump back in the water too soon. The consequences could be off the charts. And saying I'm sorry won't near cut it.

 

[Briancuse]

History. The pandemic in 1917/18 came in the spring. And it wasn't all that bad. It went away a bit during the summer and came back with a second wave much worse than the first. It was a disaster. We have to be very careful not to jump back in the water too soon. The consequences could be off the charts. And saying I'm sorry won't near cut it.

So how much longer should we be doing this for?

 

[orange79]

So how much longer should we be doing this for?

Until the curve flattens and the death rate drops.

This isn't hard.

 

[reedny]

So how much longer should we be doing this for?

Until the curve flattens, the death rate drops and we start figuring out who's sick before they hit the ER.

 

[Briancuse]

Until the curve flattens and the death rate drops.

This isn't hard.

The curve has been flattening though.

 

[RealMcNeil]

I understand your issue with point #2 (if I read your post correctly) - that the author should have mentioned that droplet or P2P contact are more (perhaps much more) likely causes of transmission than aerosols. The fact remains, however, that the post was drawing a contrast between flu and SARS-2, not providing a complete explanation of SARS transmission paths.

As to the airborne spread issue - here is (yet) another reference to the subject - this one from JHU (director of infectious respiratory illnesses). It compares transmission of the two viruses this way:

Transmission

While both the flu and COVID-19 may be transmitted in similar ways (see the Similarities section above), there is also a possible difference: COVID-19 might be spread through the airborne route, meaning that tiny droplets remaining in the air could cause disease in others even after the ill person is no longer near.

COVID-19 vs. the Flu

www.hopkinsmedicine.org

The highlighted area says "might", so I agree that there is still some uncertainty. But as to the flu the sources seem to be saying consistently that it is not thought to be spread by suspended airborne particles. IOW they back up point #2.

Influenza most definitely can be aerosolized. There is debate on whether those aerosols remain infectious/viable, which is related to a point I was making earlier re: NEJM study. The study’s results were generated in a very controlled lab environment. Coughing/sneezing is not the same as a nebulizer, and a Target is not the same as a goldberg drum.

 

[orange79]

The curve has been flattening though.

Enough for you to feel comfortable walking around in a crowd without a mask, when others are doing the same?

Not me, and not a lot of governors, either. Unless they're Republicans not named Hogan.

 

[dasher]

So how much longer should we be doing this for?

What Orange 79 said. brian. This sucks for everyone. Not just you. I'm older. This is taking time I can't get back in my shorten life. As I have said to you earlier, other generations have been asked to sacrifice a lot more than this. tonight, you will be in your home watching tv. Think of what other generations have been asked to go through.

 

[dasher]

The curve has been flattening though.

Last week at this time there were 21000 dead here in America. . There is 42000 now.

 

[Briancuse]

What Orange 79 said. brian. This sucks for everyone. Not just you. I'm older. This is taking time I can't get back in my shorten life. As I have said to you earlier, other generations have been asked to sacrifice a lot more than this. tonight, you will be in your home watching tv. Think of what other generations have been asked to go through.

You make some great points dash. I have my degree in history so I do realize the sacrifices that people have made plenty of sacrifices over time. It's not just me people are tired of hearing "We are all in this together" and "Were not there yet". People are depressed and stressed and need a plan and hope.

 

[SUbear]

Saying something is stupid is not much of an argument. especially when someone posted right after that some study that said the Coronavirus could stay airborne for up to 3 hours. Now, none of this is in my field. My jr year high school biology course is legendary at my old high school. Just to say, my lab partner was blind and insisted on doing most of the stuff. We set the room on fire. Having said that, I will listen to the experts that I trust on this. And they sound a lot like that Dr above. The one with the great resume.

Except that other experts say it is not true.

 

[Orangezoo]

Last week at this time there were 21000 dead here in America. . There is 42000 now.

In fairness that has little to do with the curve flattening. The parameters for what qualifies as a CoVid death has changed. Probable deaths are now being counted. It is the rate of change not aggregate numbers. It is flattening that is true. New Cases in NY have flattened and started to come down or are beginning that downward trend.

 

[AZOrange]

This was posted on my town's Facebook group by someone who lives in town.

COVID-19 is NOT the flu. It is so much worse than the flu.


From a friend whose friend is an ICU doctor. Thought about it all night. I have read many explanations in the last few weeks, but THIS one slammed me in the face!

For anyone who knows that one person who just can’t seem to get on board with this- feel free to share. Share it over and over especially to those you know in states who think they need to be liberated. Not so fast my friends, not so fast.

***Let me introduce myself: I am a practicing ER doctor with a Bachelors degree in cell and molecular biology/genetics and a Masters degree in public health in addition to my doctorate.

COVID is not a flu. Not even a little. Here are reasons why:

1. It is a separate species. It is no more like influenza than you are like a hippo. DIFFERENT SPECIES.

2. It is an airborne virus. This means the tiny droplets can stay in the air for a full 2 hours. So if a person coughed in aisle 4 of Target 1.5 hours ago, they may be home now but their covid cloud is still hanging there just waiting for you to walk by and take a breath. Influenza is not an airborne virus. It is droplet spread- meaning someone has to directly crop dust you with their sneeze to get you sick. Covid is much more contagious.

3. Covid is more virulent. Virulence factor is a measure of how catchy something is. For example, the flu is like beer. It takes a bunch to get you drunk. Covid is more like tequila - A little goes a long way. You need to suck up a lot of flu particles to actually catch the flu; with covid, even a few particles is enough to infect you.

4. Covid has a longer incubation than the flu. When you catch the flu, you typically get sick in the next 1-2 days. This is awesome because it means you stay at home while contagious because you feel like a heap of fried garbage. Covid has a blissful 5-9 days of symptom free time during which you are well enough to head to the movies, gym or mar-a-lago while also being contagious enough to infect everyone you encounter.

5. Covid has a longer duration of illness than flu. With covid, you have a 5-9 days of blissful asymptomatic contagiousness. This then turns into about 1 week of cough and overall feeling like hell but still surviving. Week 2 is when things hit the fan and people end up unable to breathe and on a ventilator. Many stay on the vent for up to 15 days. 5 days incubating+7 kinda sick days + 15 days on a ventilator makes for 27 days of virus spreading illness, (assuming you don’t just die of massive asphyxiation and body-wide collapse from overwhelming infection somewhere in that last week).The flu has an average incubation of 1-2 days and sick time of 7 days for a total of 9 infectious days. In the world of deadly viruses, that 18 extra days might as well be a millennia.

6. Covid is more deadly. A LOT more deadly. The flu has about a 0.2% mortality rate, meaning 2 of every thousand people who get sick with flu will die. On the contrary, the death rate from covid is reportedly 2%, so 10 times more deadly than flu. Ten times more death seems like a lot more death to me. Whats more worrisome is that 2% is actually incorrect because it doesn’t usually kill kids so that skews the average. With covid, age is a major factor in survival. If we don’t include people under 30, the death rate for adults is on average 4.5%. 9 out of every 200 adults that get this will die from it. Do you know 200 adults? Do you think losing 9 of them is no big deal? Since mortality increases with age in covid, the risk gets worse as you get older so if we put 100 grannies in a room with covid, only 85 would make it out alive to make pies and tell great stories of the old days... and that just sucks.

I hope that helps to clarify why covid is in no way a flu, why you are in no way a hippo, and why staying home is the only way for non-essential people to do their part while I spend my days at work covered in a plastic poncho, sucking air through a stuffy respirator mask, leaving my scrubs in my driveway, showering the covid off at 4am when I get in, and thinking to myself “now do u still think it was just a flu?” as I risk my own life with my face 2 inches from their highly contagious, gasping mouth while I slide the plastic tube down their throat and start up the ventilator.

Read an interesting article last week about how the respiratory ailment is not flu-like pneumonia but more like altitude sickness and the ventilators are what is damaging the lungs. Dr was talking about dealing with the cytokine response with corticosteroid And vitamin c. Put a whole New spin on treatment. Be interested in our board dr takes