In my humble point of view:
I think we’re seeing five distinct tiers emerging right now, each with its own NIL-era strategy:
1) Legacy Powerhouses (e.g., Georgia, Alabama)
Programs that still lean heavily on their traditional value proposition: elite development, national exposure, and a strong NFL pipeline. NIL is certainly present, but not the core of their pitch. Historically these teams stockpiled talent, but the transfer portal and NIL have made it harder to retain high end backups, creating opportunities for other programs. As the NIL landscape keeps evolving, these legacy schools may need to adapt more aggressively.
2) Big Spenders (e.g., Texas A&M, Texas Tech)
Programs whose approach is straightforward: deploy major NIL resources to land top-tier recruits. Their strategy is volume and financial firepower.
3) Strategic NIL Investors (e.g., Vanderbilt)
Schools that target highly rated recruits who might otherwise be buried on depth charts at powerhouse programs. They combine meaningful NIL packages with immediate playing time opportunities to attract 4 and 5 star players who want to get on the field right away.
4) The Middle Tier/Rest of the Pack
Programs that don’t fit cleanly into the models above and are still trying to establish their identity and approach in the NIL era.
5) Indiana — The Arbitrage Model
Indiana represents a unique path: similar to the strategic approach to #3, but built on identifying an overlooked market inefficiency (i.e. KPI is productivity at any level, if I understand the strategy correctly) rather than purely on NIL spend. (Now they have Cuban-backed NIL money, but their current success doesn't appear to be built from my understanding.) Their early success in exploiting this niche is likely to inspire imitation from others going forward.
That being said, I woulnd't be shocked, given how fast things are evolving, that the above is stale (and applies more to last year's offseason/this current season's results and strategies/programs are rapidly evolving.